Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 371. (Read 100100 times)

I'm going to really try, and get all my predictions on the Friday before the events that are on Saturday. I normally don't do too much of a write up on why I've picked those that I have, just because I don't want to be mistaken for someone who actually knows what they're talking about. However, I might put up some words why in the future, and just put a disclaimer that I'm most of the time an idiot.

Adesanya better not let me down this weekend, so at least you know I'll be going for him. I'll be reviewing some tape on some of the lesser known fighters.

I don't watch the press conferences after the fight as its usually way too late for me here, however does anyone know if the Erosa vs Peterson fight got a bonus? I watched every fight, and I'd like to think that got fight of the night. Peterson was smashing Erosa, and somehow Erosa managed to ride that out keep his chin, and then go on a wild one with all sorts of attacks. There must have been two or more spinning back fists as well as some super man punches.

^  Don’t worry about it.  It’s the thought process on why you made the pick that counts and what everybody should really learn from.  The wins will come eventually, granting you have developed a good thought process in making the analysis and approaching the betting market.   And it’s always good to share ideas and learn from other ideas...  Makes you grow.

Just noticed 271’s Countdown just dropped.  Enjoy!

UFC 271:  Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPoD2WhPS0M

He's probably the most suitable for a title shot if Whittaker loses again. Although, like you say, I don't expect his style to be a good idea going against Adesanya which is skills striking at a distance. Strickland would likely need to come in with a different game plan if he were to get a title shot.

I've gone through  a real rough patch before this, so by no means should anyone be looking for tips off of me. Although, it was a pleasant surprise to actually put some results together. Usually, I lose on the first fight on my accumulator which spoils the rest of the night.

I will make try to post my predictions earlier though.

^  Good job!  I should be getting some tips from you.    Please share them as soon as you make them.

Anyway here are the results of the event... 

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/83125-ufc-fight-night

For a low tier Fight Night event, it was really good!  Most of the matches ended inside the distance and the Erosa vs Peterson one was a banger.  Pretty surprised Erosa’s chin held. 

Anybody thinks Strickland gets the shot at the title next?  I mean I think he deserves it but the way he fights seems too ‘generic’ if that makes any sense.  He’ll just get tee’d off by Adesanya.

Four out of four last night, quite pleased with that. If Izzy can do the business now next weekend, then I would have profited quite a bit there. Total multiplier was something like x56. Knowing my luck, one of my favourite fighters that I am upmost confidence in will get knocked out within the first 20 seconds.

Think I might start picking out fights in events, rather than trying to cover them all in the future, since I've been having much more success recently by avoiding fights that I think will be competitive. For example, I thought the Strickland fight was going to be a little more competitive, but I just know Strickland while he does come across as aggressive, he only really ever does it in short bursts, for the majority of his fights he sits behind is jab, and looks to be safe. Despite what he says in press conferences. He proved my gut instinct against Jack, and that really did add to the total value of the bet.

That is a great pick in my opinion, and I really think the Israel Adesanya fight should not be considered Whittaker to improve much versus Adesanya, even if Whittaker improved so does Adesanya, he would surely just counter that style Whittaker is talking about, so I would still go with Israel Adesanya on this one,

and here are my picks this the UFC Fight Night Hermansson vs Strickland

Jack Hermansson VS Sean Strickland - WON

I am watching this fight and I see Sean Strickland is just cool and calm surely you can see the advantage of Strickland with the standing and how calm he is even the takedown attempts of Hermansson doesn't really work, and if we look at the fight stats Jack Hermansson have total strikes of 38.8% while Sean Strickland has 47.6% and significant strikes for Hermansson was 38.8% aswell, while Strickland has 46.4% Hermansson didn't really stand a chance even this takedowns don't work because Strickland is pressuring him so much,

Shavkat Rakhmonov VS Carlston harris WON

Shavkat Rakmonov is very patient in this fight and measuring his opponent and in what is happening and that spinning kick he executes was really impressive but this is really not an easy fight for Shavkat Rakhmonov, Carlston Harris is really one decent fighter he really knows when to balance in those takedowns that Rakmonov is executing, his takedown defense is pretty impressive, but Shavkat Rakhmonov has done really great I was really blown in what he did and after watching that fight it just goes to me what if Shavkat Rakhmonov can have a fight with Khamzat Chimaev in the future that will be crazy and awesome to watch.

Just wanted to come here to say how insane the Erosa vs Peterson fight was, got to be the fight of the night, and we're only half way through the entire event. Hoping that the rest of the card keeps up to the high standards the prelims, and early main event fights have set.

I'm hoping that Allen gets it finished within the three rounds, otherwise my accumulator will be void. I'm a little late sharing my predictions, since some have already concluded, but here they're:

Jailton Almeida by TKO @ 11/4
Alexis Davis by decision @ 1/1
Brenden Allen to win in Rnds 1-3 @ 10/11
Sean Strickland to win via decision @ 15/8
Israel Adesanya to win outright @ 2/5

Yeah, I know the Izzy fight isn't until next week, however I just added that to buff it up a little bit. Two out of the five have already came in. I've avoided a lot of the fights tonight because as predicted they've turned out to be a little bit unpredictable.

^  Yup and Alvey is now at 4.30.  It’s funny cos I don’t think Allen really looked all that good during the weigh ins.  The match is also gonna be at 205, a weight class higher than what Allen is used to.  Alvey has fought in both 185 and 205.  Allen also just got KO’d by Chris Curtis a couple of months back.  So all in all I like the line on Alvey.  It would’ve been nice if Stake had the KO prop for the match.  It’s at 7.00 - 7.55 according to Best Fight Odds.

https://www.bestfightodds.com/#

Here are the weigh ins and face off vids.  Enjoy.

UFC Vegas 47:  Weigh in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcH9ZziHn10

UFC Vegas 47:  Face off
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IIMPIpKCME

I don't see any news about it, but their fight will be on February 20, so there is still time to lose weight, I can see Dos Anjos is pretty much ok with his  ground game pretty much Dos Anjos is not a pushover and has a lot of experience, to the new Rafael Fiziev but I think Fiziev have a good takedown defense,


Well before that fight, I think Derrick Lewis will need to settle his fight with Tuivasa first, and focus on the fight at hand, and with Greg Hardy, I didn't really know the guy but I think he will be pulverized by the more experienced fighter Derrick Lewis, and I have seen that Greg Hardy had lost to Tai Tuivasa if Derrick Lewis would lose against Tuivasa then there is a chance Greg Hardy can have a match against Lewis but if Derrick Lewis could win this then I don't think Greg Hardy would have a chance in making a match against Derrick Lewis.


his fight with Thiago Santos he could have won it if he has more explosiveness inside the octagon, but the way I see things Walker keeps on throwing faints that Santos, already anticipates, what he needs to do with Santos back then is keep on pressuring him to the corner to land massive blows, in my opinion, there is a problem with his coach, he surely needs a coach that could read the current situation of the fight Johnny Walker sure have the guts and athleticism to win a match but in always changing his style and plans, the more he would not know his own style, Walker is a humble guy that needs proper guidance,


Whoa! another pull out fight, I need to take a look at that before giving my pick later,

I watched adesanyas rise to the belt with much anticipation for every fight. He is smart, maybe the most intelligent person in the UFC. The last two fights we have not seen a knockout.
For Whittaker, this feels like the final run for his old belt. He is still a very dangerous man, smart and crafty, however as we saw with vettorri, although improved and was able to take adesanya to the final horn, didn't do much too put Israel in any real trouble.
My prediction is Whitaker will have his moments and will look like a much more improved fighter, but will still fall short to the champion. Looking forward to the event uncle Dana, let's hope Saturdays fight will be an exciting prelude.

I love them both but leaning Adesanya.  I haven’t actually checked the lines tbh and I’m guessing Adesanya is prolly around 1.50 or something.  I’m feeling this rematch could be closer and should be lined closer.  I’d take a small stab at Whitaker if it  goes close to 3.00 just for line value.

Edit:  Took a peek.  Whitaker at 3.25 at Stake!  I’m taking that!


Yup and there’s not much spots this weekend.  I like Phil Rowe at 1.75...  That’s about it.  Maybe I’ll take a shot at Harris at 2.85 and if I win that, take a shot at Maximov at 2.55.

Btw, Phil Hawes pulled out and Brendan Allen is in on 4 days short notice.  Sam Alvey at 4.10 could be a fun gamble.   

RDA passed out cutting down to 155 lbs in the UFC. The motive behind him moving up to 170. Maybe he can make the weight cut more scientifically this time.

Derrick Lewis said there was too much pressure on him for his fight with Ciryl Gane in his hometown and he choked. Lewis vs Tuivasa is a great match up. But I had hoped Derrick Lewis would fight Greg Hardy instead as their back and forth trash talk could be epic, based on some of the insults Greg Hardy said towards Lewis in interviews.

Johnny Walker began his UFC career with his coach from brazil. Then he left his old coach and trained at tristar in canada. Now Johnny Walker trains at SBG Ireland with John Kavanagh. Each placed Johnny Walker trained in changed the way he fights. SBG Ireland doesn't have a good win / loss record in the UFC which could lead most to fade Johnny Walker. I think Walker's athleticism has improved since joining SBG Ireland but is it enough?

Ngannou had 116kg on the scale the day before the fight, we do not know his real weight in the octagon. Almost every fight cheat like that. If Jones regular weight is +100kg and for the heavyweight division he prepares +110kg for us, then Ngannou easily can be +120.

If we put numbers aside, I give Jones low chances to win. His dirty boxing will be punished by Ngannou power. He might try to use reach advantage and speed, but Ngannou already showed in a fight against Gane that he can counter that. I think that Ngannou will run him over with higher mass and that is it.

P.S. We are discussing it like the fight is already announced. Funny. How long has been Jones preparing for HW? Two years? This will be fight that will never happen.

Well maybe you may be right Robert Wittaker could surely be preparing for this rematch, and the way he will be in taking Adesanya can be a much different approach, but I think Israel Adesanya may also see it as well, both fighters are very technical this fight and you could be right it will surely end up in a chess match more than a brawl, it may bore a lot of people but for me, I would love to see how far these two have become this is so crazy about a rematch we think we know it could be like the same time they fought but in the end, it could end up differently that is why it is exciting,

I like to see that as well, there are some fighters having trouble with their stamina but eventually, they got a solution about it, Maybe Fiziev can get that around him because Dos Anjos is a crazy fighter to take on,

I am not betting aswell, but my pick is Strickland, and he can not belittle his opponent, after all, Jack Hermansson is a beast on the ground.

No no, that's really not the correct information here. What wiki is saying is that he's fighting weight is 93kg. That's because his division is LightHeavyweight and the limit there is 93kg, so that's the number wiki says is his fighting weight. It's still on that number because he actually hasn't fought in another weight class (since fighting in LHW) and therefore there is no record of any other weight. Now, keep in mind that fighters in all weight classes, for the most part, cut weight to get down to the limit of the category. LHW is no exception, Alex Gustafsson said he personally get's 'fat'' in between fights, and we have reports of fighters like Tibou, Till, MacGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and so on, that started camps as high as 20 to 25 kg above the limit of their weight class and then cut down to the required weight.

So let's put Jones at a conservative 105kg walking weight when he is fighting at LHW (although I think it's more). That's all before he started putting on mass for fighting at HW, and that's quite different than just the walking wait, he is actually training and adequately addressing his nutrition to accommodate those gains.

Now let's look at the other side, Ngannou. His fight with Gane was recorded at 116kg. Heavyweights usually do not ballon much after weigh-ins because there would be no advantage in that as opposed to some lighter classes, and they are already way below the 120kg limit that the class has. Miočić for example had a walking weight of 109kg.

So with all of that in mind, the actual bout would not be so much different than for instance Miočić and Ngannou had, 5kg here or there, but that's mostly it, and at that weight class, that's more than tolerable of the lower weight fighter.

I didn't see that, thank you.
10 kg is a lot of weight to gain and that will slow him down by a lot. If he could not evade Ngannou's punches then it would be game over for him. Yeah, perhaps warming him up to the crowd should be the priority, build him up again so that more money will come in. Let their Twitter punches be a trend. 

Connor vs Jones will be more profitable for UFC. Dana would prefer that which I guess Connor lifts his weight for this reason and then not make Ngannou vs jones possible. Just another way to punish Francis for fighting back.

So many interesting matches in UFC 271. I doubt Whittaker will win, he just does not have the style. Adesanya experienced a hard time during the first clash with Whittaker probably made Dana decide to give it another go despite Whittaker being KOed. I'd go for Tai Tuivasa against Derek this time. This is going to be a boxing fight in which Tuivasa has more experience.

I don't think Whittaker can the "game of chess" too extremely, because he'll just be picked apart from a far. He needs to close the distance strategically, without actually getting clipped, which is easier said than done. However, if he can get close, and I imagine his threat of kicks will aid him into making Adensanya bite, he will have a outside chance of winning.

I'll be rooting for Izzy, however Whittaker is probably the only realistic option we have that's capable of beating Izzy when they're both having a good day. The chances are slim I'll admit, but the division likely becomes very stale without Whittaker at least threatening Izzy.

I'm hoping we get a few rounds before a finish, and see a real back, and forth fight which tests both fighters. I'm not sure what's left to do if Izzy wins again.

Adesanya must outperform himself in this fight after losing from Jan Blachowicz in his light-heavyweight division expedition.
I am sure Whittaker will give his best but Adesanya is just to good for him and best he can give is to survive all five rounds on his feet.
Just checked the odds on that one and Adesanya is huge favorite to win, odds to low in my opinion.

The next two main events are going to be great.  With Adesanya vs Whitaker, I don’t think we’ll be seeing the same type of match when Whitaker tried to make Gastelum’s style as some sort of blue print in beating Adesanya.  It think it’s going to be somewhat of a chess match.  We’ve seen both Adesanya do it before vs Yoel Romero and Whitaker vs Darren Till.  It could get boring for some people but dunno...  I think it’s going to be a tense 5 rounder for me.

For the event after 271, I just hope Fiziev worked on his gast tank.  We’ve seen him kinda slow down at R3.  Dos Anjos is no joke.

And thinking back about it, I think I’m going to be leaning on Strickland.  Not betting on it tho.  But Strickland isn’t somebody new in the UFC.  He has been with the UFC since 2014 and he’s 15 - 0 at 185.