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Barcelona's defeat against Monaco was because Barcelona played with only 10 players since the first half in the 11th minute, but despite this, Barcelona still managed to equalize the score to 1-1 at half time, although in the end Barcelona still lost by a score of 2-1. But about Bayern Munich who lost against Aston Villa, the fact is that Bayern Munich had a very high dominance in the match, but Bayern Munich got a deadlock until they were unable to make a goal and Bayern Munich lost against Aston Villa.
You are right about the course of the two matches, the defeats in question clearly have their own reasons. Barcelona probably wouldn't have lost the match against Monaco if they had 11 players on the pitch, but unfortunately the referee forced them to play with 10 players from the moment the red card was given. In this match, Barcelona proved that they also have good strength not to concede more goals in the second half than their 11 aggressive opponents. But clearly, it was a tiring match.
In addition, considering the head to head results or history of Barcelona v Bayern Munich meetings I think it is not so appropriate, at least for this moment. Because after all, Barcelona under Hansi Flick is an experienced coach and in fact, Hansi Flick has success with Bayern Munich before. But for Kompany, basically Kompany is also new to being a coach in a big team like Bayern Munich and also, during Kompany's coaching career that he has no experience for competition in the Champion League. With such differentiating factors, I personally believe that Barcelona will still have a better chance than Bayern Munich.
H2H is not always important in analyzing each team's chances of winning the next match, for me it is just data that may not be completely ignored. Teams that have a good record will usually be able to play matches without much burden, while teams that have a bad record will have the burden of stopping their bad record. Sometimes that's why Barcelona always loses against Bayern Munich, even some former Bayern Munich players have directly underestimated Barcelona.
Of course, Barcelona is expected to be able to give their best against Bayern Munich in the Champions League this season, after all, it is a home match which can help them appear with good confidence. This match will be very interesting to look forward to, if Barcelona wins then it will be good capital ahead of El Clasico.