@suchmoon, I don't agree with you on Ohio.
Ohio first counts the postal ballots. I think this phase is over for most of the counties. In the second phase, in person ballots are being counted and that is why we are witnessing Trump gaining a lot of votes. In the third phase, the postal ballots which arrived during the last 3-4 days will be counted. Depending on their number, the third phase ballots will decide the outcome of the elections in Ohio. The same is the case with North Carolina as well. Most of the votes may be in counties won by Hillary in 2016. But these are in-person votes, and not postal votes.
Edit: With 70% of the votes in, Trump leading in OH by 0.6%. 15% remains in NC, and Biden leads by 26,000 (0.5%).
Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 12. (Read 4674 times)
....
Speaking of suspense, NYT called New York for Biden with 0 votes counted, while Florida still hasn't been called... quite ridiculous.
Speaking of suspense, NYT called New York for Biden with 0 votes counted, while Florida still hasn't been called... quite ridiculous.
Well in California, I believe .00000001% votes have been officially counted and Biden has the lead so I'm projecting California's 55 evotes go to Biden.
Just call me Nostradamus....
Ohio and NC getting really interesting. In Ohio, Biden was ahead by 12.3% when 51% of the vote was counted. Now they have counted 56% and Biden is up by 8.2%. Biden is still leading in NC, but now they have started to count the in-person votes.
Interesting tidbit about Ohio, where Biden is still leading:
According to turnout estimates, more of the uncounted votes, about 62 percent, are in counties won by Clinton in 2016.
So it seems like he can actually pull it off.
Whereas in NC, where Biden is leading by about 250k votes:
Quote from: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina-president.html
We just received more votes from Chatham County. According to turnout estimates, around 680,000 votes remain in counties won by Trump in 2016. Clinton 2016 counties have around 490,000 votes left to report.
Which doesn't really tell us if he can hold on to that lead because it's unclear how many of those 680k and 490k would go to each candidate.
Pretty Bummed FL is going to Trump.
NYTimes is saying that if Trump takes NC and GA, the likelihood of knowing the outcome of the election within 24 hours drops to almost 0% and most likely it won't be till Friday at the earliest. Ugh.
First numbers from MI and AZ coming up.
NYTimes is saying that if Trump takes NC and GA, the likelihood of knowing the outcome of the election within 24 hours drops to almost 0% and most likely it won't be till Friday at the earliest. Ugh.
First numbers from MI and AZ coming up.
I'm calling Florida for Trump
10% of votes remaining, he has a 3% lead.
(I'm assuming the early votes and mail in ballots were counted first)
10% of votes remaining, he has a 3% lead.
(I'm assuming the early votes and mail in ballots were counted first)
@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting.
Oh I'm enjoying it - perhaps a bit too much, looking at the growing pile of empty cans... eddie13 mentioned beer too so I think we're 100% on the same page.
Speaking of suspense, NYT called New York for Biden with 0 votes counted, while Florida still hasn't been called... quite ridiculous.
Still think it's a landslide?
Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.
Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..
Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??
@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting. This election is much tighter than anyone thought it was. Obviously one of you will lose 0.1 BTC sometime this month (in case PA results come out within the next few weeks), but for now let's just sit back and enjoy the show.
Ohio and NC getting really interesting. In Ohio, Biden was ahead by 12.3% when 51% of the vote was counted. Now they have counted 56% and Biden is up by 8.2%. Biden is still leading in NC, but now they have started to count the in-person votes.
My guess: it will come down to Pennsylvania (unless Biden wins AZ). You guys need to wait 3-4 weeks to get results from PA.
Still think it's a landslide?
Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.
Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..
Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??
"Math"
"Science"
Still think it's a landslide?
Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.
Maybe not you specifically.. But such confidence in a Biden win..
Are all the latest "polls" within ""margin of error""??
Still think it's a landslide?
Did I ever think it's a landslide? Not sure. I'm getting senile but I think I'd remember something like that.
I was gonna ask..
Still think it's a landslide?
Neh..
The American voting circus of entertainment is working on me.. +beers
This suspense is much fun..
Cheers!
Trump seems to have a better chance than predicted, again 
Meanwhile FL seems to be done. Trump is leading by nearly 200k votes and the remaining uncounted votes are mainly in pro-Trump counties.
Still think it's a landslide?
Neh..
The American voting circus of entertainment is working on me.. +beers
This suspense is much fun..
Cheers!
Trump still has a good shot..
Michigan is red!!
On the edge of my seat..
Michigan is red!!
On the edge of my seat..
Michigan has counted very few votes but overall Trump seems to have a better chance than predicted, again
OK.. now they (NYT) changed North Carolina to +0.9 for Trump.
They are claiming that 62% of the votes are reported. But I checked Fox News, and they are reporting only 51%. Anyway, now it is more or less clear that sub-belt is getting swept by Trump. The race will shift to the rust-belt now.
Michigan numbers are confusing, so I'll leave that. With more than half of the votes counted, Ohio is showing a 12.3% lead for Biden. This should be troublesome for Trump. He need to get a lead of 13% from the remaining 49%.
Edit: Biden's lead down to 11.1% in Ohio as they start counting in-person votes.
They are claiming that 62% of the votes are reported. But I checked Fox News, and they are reporting only 51%. Anyway, now it is more or less clear that sub-belt is getting swept by Trump. The race will shift to the rust-belt now.
Michigan numbers are confusing, so I'll leave that. With more than half of the votes counted, Ohio is showing a 12.3% lead for Biden. This should be troublesome for Trump. He need to get a lead of 13% from the remaining 49%.
Edit: Biden's lead down to 11.1% in Ohio as they start counting in-person votes.
Trump still has a good shot..
Michigan is red!!
On the edge of my seat..
Michigan is red!!
On the edge of my seat..
What is the situation in North Carolina? As far as I can see, very few votes have been counted there till now, but NYT is saying that Biden is having a two-third chance of winning NC.
Not sure what they base it on... exit polls and/or turnout by county?
Meanwhile FL seems to be done. Trump is leading by nearly 200k votes and the remaining uncounted votes are mainly in pro-Trump counties.
What is the situation in North Carolina? As far as I can see, very few votes have been counted there till now, but NYT is saying that Biden is having a two-third chance of winning NC. It looks very surprising, as I thought that FL was tighter than NC for Trump. BTW, huge shift in Miami-Dade county. Hillary won this county by 300,000 or so in 2016. Biden is having a lead of only around 85,000 now.
Biden is ahead by 3% with over 50% reported in FL.
And now Trump is up by 2% and NYT says Trump's probability to win FL is 90%.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida-president.html
Edit: TwitchySeal beat me to it LOL
Edit2: 66% counted, Biden again up by ~1.3%
Edit3: FL still very very close...
Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image
NYTimes has Trump a clear favorite to win FL right now.
I don't think there's evidence that any of this is accurate, which would explain why it's not being discussed.
What I have not seen discussed is the fact that in 2016 Trump won, but many stayed home or did not vote for him. Really a lot of Republicans and Independents.
This time most of those undecided voters are pro Trump. Not all but most. Plus, some Democrats who are appalled at their choices, or who have reasons. Like blacks.
That's a great many votes.
This time most of those undecided voters are pro Trump. Not all but most. Plus, some Democrats who are appalled at their choices, or who have reasons. Like blacks.
That's a great many votes.
I don't think there's evidence that any of this is accurate, which would explain why it's not being discussed.
Biden is ahead by 3% with over 50% reported in FL.
Trump is leading so far:
Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
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