US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 11.

eddie13

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Did Trump just say there was a "great fraud" happening without mentioning what the fraud was or where it was actually happening? Then he went on to say as far as he concerned, he already won?

"Yeah there's a lotta fraud goin on, you know how those dems are. Oh but I still already won."

Yeah Trump won..
Should have called the rust belt.. (cnn/all)

polls btfo

suchmoon

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It's interesting how much Biden is outperforming Hillary in some of the most populous counties in Georgia. Not sure what's going on there, must be fraud according to the above Wink

Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html

suchmoon

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The Senate flip is looking very unlikely at this time. Democrats lost a seat in Alabama, as expected, and picked up one in Colorado and likely one in Arizona. They need to defend their seat in Michigan and flip two more... out of 4 remaining: Maine, North Carolina, one in Georgia that went to a runoff, and another one in Georgia also likely heading to a runoff. And that's assuming that Biden wins and gets a tie breaker.

bryant.coleman

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At this point, I would say that Biden is having a significant advantage. First it was his Arizona win which changed the course. Then he won the 2nd district of Nebraska. On top of this, he is having a comfortable lead in Nevada as well. So only way for Trump to win now is to get electoral votes from either Michigan or Wisconsin, in addition to Pennsylvania. And let's not forget the fact that the NYT needle is showing an advantage for Biden in Georgia.

eddie13

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Quote from: nutildah on November 04, 2020, 02:00:21 AM

Wonder how many days this is going to take.

Now they will just keep counting and counting until biden wins and then stop....
Real votes, fake votes, no matter..
Trump "loses" now..

Civil war in 10.. 9.. 8.. 7.....
You strapped?

nutildah

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So far things are going as planned on my map... Biden can lose Pennsylvania - its ok - he just needs to win WI and MI and he's in.

Wayne County (Detroit) is still pretty far behind in their count, and the vast majority of those yet to be counted are dem votes.

Wonder how many days this is going to take. Hopefully not more than one, two at most.

suchmoon

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Looks like Georgia might be moving towards Biden. NYT flipped it's forecast to the blue side - 67% Biden's chance to win, while it was as high as 80%+ towards Trump just a couple of hours ago. Vast majority of remaining votes are in Atlanta and suburbs.

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Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia-president.html

Edit: NYT finally called Florida for Trump, which they should've done 3 hours ago. Still holding up Texas for no reason.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: KonstantinosM on November 04, 2020, 12:25:38 AM

No Pennsylvania is 90%+ going to Biden. They just have to count the absentee ballots. 2.6 Million of them. We won't know until Friday.

Possible. But I guess at least some of the postal ballots are already counted. According to Fox News, with 54% of the votes counted, Trump is having a lead of around 15%. Most of the remaining votes are from Philadelphia and it is possible for Biden to close the gap.

Chances of a Trump re-election almost disappeared with the loss of Arizona. That state and its 11 electoral votes were so crucial. Now Trump needs to win at least one among these three - Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Just to add, Trump is far behind in NE-2, and therefore he will lose one crucial electoral vote. ME-2 looks very tight as of now.

KonstantinosM

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 04, 2020, 12:04:17 AM

Quote from: suchmoon on November 03, 2020, 11:54:51 PM

Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.

This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.

Yup, most likely.

Trump has pulled through and will probably win Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida.

Pennsylvania will probably end up going to Trump.

Trump will probably win this race IMO. Betting markets have completely flipped on their head here. But I guess there's still a lot of time.

No Pennsylvania is 90%+ going to Biden. They just have to count the absentee ballots. 2.6 Million of them. We won't know until Friday.

eddie13

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 04, 2020, 12:24:11 AM

According to Fox News, Joe Biden wins Arizona. Now it becomes really difficult for Trump to get to the 270 mark. He can do that only if he wins Pennsylvania, and one among the western rust-belt states (MI/MN/WI). Nevada results can be important as well. In case Trump wins NV (chances are very low), then he still has a chance to go above 270.

What about Trump flipping Virginia? EH?

Dig AZ in their bountyhole..

bryant.coleman

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According to Fox News, Joe Biden wins Arizona. Now it becomes really difficult for Trump to get to the 270 mark. He can do that only if he wins Pennsylvania, and one among the western rust-belt states (MI/MN/WI). Nevada results can be important as well. In case Trump wins NV (chances are very low), then he still has a chance to go above 270.

eddie13

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Rust belt for Trump!!!!
Go go go go go go!!!

Michigan!!! You can Doooooo Eeettttt!

squatz1

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 03, 2020, 11:54:51 PM

Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.

This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.

Yup, most likely.

Trump has pulled through and will probably win Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida.

Pennsylvania will probably end up going to Trump.

Trump will probably win this race IMO. Betting markets have completely flipped on their head here. But I guess there's still a lot of time.

eddie13

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Neh.
I can tell by the demeanor of CNN employees that Trump is gonna take this..
Trying to call all "duh" states for biden to make it look competitive..

Trump has this..

Mail ins are usually counted first.. Late voting favors the Trumpster..

suchmoon

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Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.

This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.

eddie13

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Watching CNN, they don't seem as confident in a blue win as 2016, but they seem like they are just making 1,000 excuses as to why states/counties are going red in 2020..

Thought they were supposed to be 100% sure of a Biden win since the polls say so?
Backpedaling.. Trump is gonna win..
Pollsters BTFO 4ever, even if Trump still looses..

suchmoon

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 03, 2020, 11:16:02 PM

~

Great, you saved me some typing, just wanted to post that Biden seems to have flipped Maricopa county big time (from -3 in 2016 to +10-ish now) and that's like half of Arizona.

bryant.coleman

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The battle now moves to Arizona, and it looks to me that Biden is in a very good position to get 11 electoral votes from this state.

More than 70% of the votes have been counted, and Biden is having a very large lead (9.5%). Similar to the case with OH, in the first phase they are counting the early in-person votes and postal votes. Election day in-person votes are being counted now, but Trump needs to win more than two-third of the remaining votes to have any chance here.

If Biden wins Arizona, he will be in a very good position to get at least 269 electoral votes.

eddie13

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 03, 2020, 10:08:24 PM

Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 03, 2020, 10:01:00 PM

@suchmoon & @eddie13: enjoy the suspense rather than fighting.

Oh I'm enjoying it - perhaps a bit too much, looking at the growing pile of empty cans... eddie13 mentioned beer too so I think we're 100% on the same page.

Cheers bro!
Especially with something at stake, this is better than a superbowl X4 easy..
Seems way closer than the polls had so far..
(Can we now agree that polls are bullshit?)

Super proud of Michigan so far..

suchmoon

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 03, 2020, 10:38:46 PM

@suchmoon, I don't agree with you on Ohio.

Yeah, you're probably right, there is still a lot of variance.

Now over on the Senate side of things, Democracts flipped the Colorado seat, which wasn't a huge surprise. NC seat is somewhat correlated to presidential results I guess.

Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 11. (Read 4670 times)