Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 15. (Read 4674 times)

The whole Republican strategy seems broken to me. They're talking about all the wrong things. At this point, I'm thinking that Biden is going to win by a landslide. He's currently ahead in Florida and Arizona, which Trump needs to win. The polls may still tighten, but I suspect that pollsters are more likely to have overcorrected than undercorrected after 2016; in other words, I expect polling error to go in the opposite direction to 2016.

On election night, we should watch Florida and Arizona, since they're apparently going to have some solid results early. If Biden wins either, then it's over. If Trump wins both, then it'll go into a big mess of delays and litigation in the other swing states. If Trump wins FL&AZ, then it also implies a fairly tight election, which gives Trump the opportunity to try for various tricks such as trying to have mail-in ballots thrown out in the remaining states. But I think Biden wins Florida and Arizona, which will be a bit of an anticlimactic end to the whole thing.

Ticket-splitting has become rare, so Trump's disaster of a campaign is likely to lead to the Democrats taking the Senate as well. It's always bad when either party has full control, since then the government can actually do stuff, and everything the government does is harmful. Disappointing.

Biden represents a return to the neoliberal status quo, which I would not have expected. The neoliberal ideology and post-WWII world order has been falling apart worldwide, and we seemed (still seem?) headed inexorably toward something else. The protracted and disastrous wars in the middle east were major blows to the political strength of the US and neoliberalism's strength in domestic politics, as was the 2008 financial crisis. Trump's open and loud rejection of neoliberalism seemed like the final nail in the coffin. But now Biden will attempt to "go backward". People voting for Biden want and expect a return to something "ordinary", but I think it'll be moreso Biden fighting to recreate something that can no longer exist in this world.

Speaking of things people see, I do hope that the lines at precincts will impart the same herd mentality (not to be confused with herd immunity) and sense of urgency like lines at Apple stores or TP shortage in March did and will encourage more people to vote. At the end of the day, at the end of November 3 in particular, that's really the only thing that matters regardless of crowds, yard signs, polls, and forum debates. As little as a 10% change in turnout of a specific demographic can in theory flip the whole election.

The real question is who do you think is more qualified to figure out the opinion of ~150 million people?  Polling companies with a proven track record over thousands of elections  - some spanning more than 5 decades, or you when you look outside?

I look at all the material that has Biden winning but then I look outside at all the Trump people. I haven't seen people gather for Biden anywhere here. I believe Florida at least is going to Trump.

There are some houses with Biden/Harris stuff on them though. It's not as one sided as 2016.

Looks like for in person early voting they're at  ~ 640k for republicans, 500k for dems.

Mail in is 1.64m to 1.04m in favor of democrats.

So democrats actually have a significant lead now, but that's expected to shrink pretty consistently up till election day since a higher % of Republicans have yet to vote (they're more likely to vote in person).

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/elections/2020/10/23/florida-republicans-surge-ahead-with-in-person-early-voting/

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320127823512821765

I'm not too optimistic.

Democratic voter turnout has to be historic considering there was a large chunk of voters that stayed home in 2016 and regretted it. Republicans in Florida has had surprisingly decent numbers based on early voting, but Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania I'm afraid won't even be close. I REALLY hope I'm wrong but I doubt dem's are going to stay home.

A part from people staying home last cycle, maybe voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania  resonated with Trump on manufacturing jobs. Combine this with his energy independent strategy, could he possible snag one of the three? Who knows. PA and WI might be possible, MI isn't close according to the RCP. iirc MI wasn't even within the margin of error for some of the polls.

Silver's model gave Trump a 12 in 100 chance compared to a roughly 1/4 chance last year. His chances were roughly 1/4 one month ago but of course his campaign took a nose dive with the first debate and COVID diagnosis.

Trump's been on the campaign trail hosting multiple rallies a day so Biden is sitting comfortably right now while Trump is on the trail. This complacency is what caused Clinton to lose.

I hear/read that the early voting results so far in FL are looking very promising for a Trump win there, and Biden just greatly hurt his chances in PA and OH with his comments about "phasing out"/shutting down the oil industry...

Starting to get more confident in a Trump win again..

I think WI and AZ are blue-er than Florida... maybe PA too. Even Rasmussen puts Biden ahead in those states, just barely.

This is my new projection of how things are going this year, with the election (unsurprisingly) hinging on Florida:



If the polls are even slightly more accurate this time around then theoretically Florida should go to Biden, if only by a few chin hairs. Here is a link to the unadulterated electoral map as things currently stand:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

You can also create your own map scenarios here to fantasize how you think its going to play out:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

Right now I think its a genuine toss-up. The statistical probability that the election will be decided by as many or fewer votes as it was in 2000 is almost nil, but I think it will be the closest election we've had since then.

Bloomberg spent / spending up to $100 million against trump in Florida.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/20/bloomberg-trump-florida-spending-430236

As everyone here in NY knows Trump / Bloomberg really don't like each other.
But it is interesting to see how much he is willing to spend just to make Trumps life more difficult.

Also, kind of shows the point that Trump really does not have any supporters with deep pockets and ready cash. If he did countering that kind of cash dump since mid September would be simple.

-Dave

There is certainly evidence to support this, even in US presidential elections. Quotes below from this article.


Whilst most people are not affected, it does impact the decisions of people who are unsure who to pick, but also want to (or feel obligated to) vote for someone. This does make sense. Universal suffrage is a hard-won right, and I can imagine there are people who will make absolutely certain they take advantage of that right, even if they have no real preference of candidate.

In 2016,
Also:


Apparently (as of 2017) California and Ohio are the exception:

The "state's officials" bit could be important there - particularly if this is happening in swing states.


Bit of an aside, but presumably (and in fact from personal experience, although not in the US) the effect is more pronounced in committee elections - I have received ballot papers where you can vote for 3 candidates, but there are 10 standing, 5 from each major party. If you just want 3 from your choice of party, but aren't bothered which ones, there's an obvious benefit to being top of the list.

The ballots were entered by touchscreen, then printed out on thermal paper both in English and scan codes. Then you actually "vote" by inserting this page into a scanner that's on top of a collection can. This system is capable of randomizing and presenting data impartially, and then accurately recording votes.

The collection bin system does allow double checking vote tallies and audit.

I'll grudgingly say I like the system, seems to have the advantages of both old style paper and modern electronic. With the paper stored, as long as the thermal image survives, there is a paper trail.

Could humans abuse it? Could they be caught every time? I think so.

So maybe they did order by some arbitrary popularity metric but that sounds really sketchy. Unless all ballots in your state are completely random and yours just happened to be that way.

I think Biden was second, followed by LIB then GRN. Didn't even know we had a Green Party candidate, seems we do.

That's interesting. Where was Biden? Any other candidates?

I can 100% guarantee you that position in a list is an important factor in which item people pick from that list. This is basic survey design.

FYI I voted this morning and Trump/Pence was at the top of the list...

Well, if you look at 20 years of Bushes and Clintons in the White House, the alphabetical order conspiracy might be onto something

So if he simply changed his name to _Trump, he'd be at the top of the list? That's got to confer at least a small advantage. Even competing as 'Donald, The' would bump him up a few places.
Unless when you change your name, you're only allowed to use alphabetic characters - in which case what about the squiggle formerly known as Pence Prince?

Not unusual at all to have the incumbent president at the bottom of the list.. I’m sure it happens all the time..

Are all the other races on that ballot ordered in the same way?


That whole pesky “United States” part with its electoral college..
Whoever agreed to that in the first place must be morons right?

What's a top party though? Technically you can't know until the votes are counted and ballot design shouldn't rely on polls.


Precisely.