US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 13.

squatz1

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 02, 2020, 10:50:00 PM

Quote from: Gyfts on November 02, 2020, 10:42:46 PM

Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.

Speaking of Florida, early voting turnout (not including Monday's mail-ins I guess) has Democrats with a ~100k vote advantage... which is probably nothing, considering that despite the record-breaking early voting there are likely still a few million people coming to vote tomorrow.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246891077.html

Yeah this is something that more people need to know. Any record breaking absentee / early voting advantages will most likely be soaked up by in person voting. Voter turnout will end up being higher this year, though.

We MAY know the winner today. Even though they're going to start counting the absentee ballots today, they may not have the resources to get it out ASAP. I'm guessing that if we end up knowing today it's going to be LATER in the night - lke 12-4 AM.

Who the fuck knows what litigation is going to end up doing to certain votes though. Litigation could flip this all up, though I think we all know that isn't going to be popular - just like Bush v Gore wasn't popular.

Spendulus

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What I have not seen discussed is the fact that in 2016 Trump won, but many stayed home or did not vote for him. Really a lot of Republicans and Independents.

This time most of those undecided voters are pro Trump. Not all but most. Plus, some Democrats who are appalled at their choices, or who have reasons. Like blacks.

That's a great many votes.

The media and the pollsters would have us believe that there are that many MORE democrats who have came out of the woodwork in their tremendous enthusiasm for the rock star Joe Biden.

I don't buy it. There was enthusiasm for Hillary, no question about that. This time around the Democratic enthusiam is as near to zero as possible.

Not only do a percentage of the younger crowd actually like Trump and will or have voted for him, but others, faced with a choice of toking on some weed or going out for Biden, are going to stay at home.

bryant.coleman

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First will be eastern parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm EST. Polls will close in Eastern Florida at 7pm EST. A large chunk of results will be available immediately after the closing of polls, because states such as Florida will start counting the postal ballots on election day morning. They will be releasing the results as soon as the polls close. But there are states such as Georgia, which will start tabulating the postal ballots only after the polls close.

In states such as Florida, where the early ballots are counted first, there may be a "Blue mirage" during the initial few hours. But as election day votes start to get counted, a "red shift" will occur. And in the end, late postal ballots will be counted and this will again shift the momentum to Blue. The exact opposite will happen in states such as Pennsylvania, where election day votes will be counted first.

For more details, check this: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Please refer this map, to know the poll closing times (all in EST).

suchmoon

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Quote from: Gyfts on November 02, 2020, 10:42:46 PM

Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.

Speaking of Florida, early voting turnout (not including Monday's mail-ins I guess) has Democrats with a ~100k vote advantage... which is probably nothing, considering that despite the record-breaking early voting there are likely still a few million people coming to vote tomorrow.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246891077.html

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Quote from: suchmoon on November 02, 2020, 10:03:54 PM

We're almost done. The election starts in a few hours (or does it... do any voting places actually open at mignight? I have no clue... probably doesn't matter with early voting anyway) and it will be over by this time tomorrow (or will it... recounts, tweetstorms, lawsuits are very likely).

I have updated the OP with latest 538 and RCP averges. They have Biden up by 8.0% and 6.7% respectively.

Polling places open up at 7 AM. Some states like Pennsylvania immediately start counting mail in ballots at 7 AM sharp.

Florida closes polls sharp and gets the results out the night of, so we will know the winner tomorrow.

suchmoon

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We're almost done. The election starts in a few hours (or does it... do any voting places actually open at mignight? I have no clue... probably doesn't matter with early voting anyway) and it will be over by this time tomorrow (or will it... recounts, tweetstorms, lawsuits are very likely).

I have updated the OP with latest 538 and RCP averges. They have Biden up by 8.0% and 6.7% respectively.

bryant.coleman

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Quote from: nutildah on November 01, 2020, 06:05:45 PM

If Arizona flips to Biden, there's a possibility that North Carolina and Georgia could flip to Biden as well. Wisconsin is also a wildcard, certainly not a "gimmie" for the dems.

Arizona is troublesome for the GOP. If you look at the past elections, you can see that the opinion polls have always underestimated the Democrat support in Hispanic-heavy states such as Nevada, Arizona, Texas.etc. On top of that, Arizona is one of the states where there is a huge difference in the early voting numbers. Let's compare Arizona with Nevada (which seems to be going in the other direction).

AZ in 2016, early voting (by voter registration):

Dem - 554,910 (33.6%)
GOP - 659,600 (40.0%)
Trump margin of victory: 3.50%

AZ in 2020, early voting:

Dem - 879,178 (38.2%)
GOP - 836,123 (36.3%).

As you can see, the proportion of Dem voters are up by around 4.5%, while that of GOP is down by -3.7%. That is a net change of 8.2%, which is more than double that of the 2016 margin. No other state is showing this much difference in early voting.

Now, Nevada, for comparison.
NV in 2016, early voting:

Dem - 324,293 (42.1%)
GOP - 278,668 (36.2%)
Trump margin in 2016: -2.42%

NV in 2020, early voting:

Dem - 405,994 (39.6%)
GOP - 373,130 (36.4%)

All the figures for 2020 are as of Oct 31. Early voting turnout is 86.5% of the 2016 actual turnout in AZ, and 91.2% in NV. Arizona is looking very doubtful for the Republicans, unless there is a huge in-person turnout on 3rd Nov.

2020 numbers sourced from: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
2016 numbers from: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/edit?usp=sharing

suchmoon

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Apparently there is an attempt to throw out drive-thru ballots in Houston:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/31/harris-county-drive-thru-votes/

To their credit, Texas Supreme Court rejected the case but now the plaintiffs are fishing in a federal court. This is quite bizarre even by 2020 standards. There is nothing wrong with the ballots and the county got the permission from the secretary of state to do the drive thru. Not to mention that Texas is (was?) solid red despite Houston, Austin, etc.

nutildah

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Interestingly, Biden is now up well over Clinton polling numbers in Pennsylvania. I seriously don't see the pollsters risking underestimating Trump voter turnout there this time around, but the difference lies within the margin of error for all polls, so..

This is one last map; a worst-case scenario for Biden where cedes Pennsylvania and Florida and everything comes down to Arizona:

If Arizona flips to Biden, there's a possibility that North Carolina and Georgia could flip to Biden as well. Wisconsin is also a wildcard, certainly not a "gimmie" for the dems.

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on November 01, 2020, 12:37:27 PM

^^^ Out of the 5 races that are labelled as toss up, Montana and Iowa may go for GOP. The two from Georgia may also end up with the GOP. NC looks like it may flip to the Democrats. So it may get 50-50. If we add Murkowski in the Democrat column, then Democrats will be in control of the senate with a margin of 51-49. So unless a miracle occurs, the Dems will control the senate.

BTW.. a miracle may occur. From what I have heard, in Michigan John James is rapidly closing the gap with Gary Peters. And in AZ, Martha McSally is only 3-4 points behind Mark Kelly. So in case the GOP wins one aming AZ/MI/NC, then they may control the senate.

If Biden wins, Democrats can control the Senate without Murkowski's help in a 50:50 split - VP is the tie breaker.

bryant.coleman

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^^^ Out of the 5 races that are labelled as toss up, Montana and Iowa may go for GOP. The two from Georgia may also end up with the GOP. NC looks like it may flip to the Democrats. So it may get 50-50. If we add Murkowski in the Democrat column, then Democrats will be in control of the senate with a margin of 51-49. So unless a miracle occurs, the Dems will control the senate.

BTW.. a miracle may occur. From what I have heard, in Michigan John James is rapidly closing the gap with Gary Peters. And in AZ, Martha McSally is only 3-4 points behind Mark Kelly. So in case the GOP wins one aming AZ/MI/NC, then they may control the senate.

suchmoon

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Presidential election is boring. How about the Senate:

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

If you believe the polls - and presumably people would be less inclined to lie in Senate polls so why not - Democrats need to flip one of the toss-up spots to gain control.

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Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

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Quote from: eddie13 on October 31, 2020, 11:16:27 PM

In 2016 lots of conservatives were unsure of his policies, now they know he will side with conservatism 90% mostly and will make good conservative appointments..

Biden has, by far, more bipartisan support than any other presidential candidate in modern history.

Quote from: eddie13 on October 31, 2020, 11:16:27 PM

BLM riots making people vote Biden? Lol no.. They will make people vote Trump (and be quiet about it)..

From right around the peak of the protests:

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Quote from: NotATether on October 31, 2020, 05:52:57 PM

Quote from: nutildah on October 18, 2020, 08:29:55 PM

Today's the 4th anniversary of the birth of this now-famous infographic -- #neverforget
~snip

Trump's in a worse position election-wise than he was in 2016, lots of people are angry with his policies and would vote for Biden to get Trump out of office.

Whatever Hillary did that pissed off voters is nowhere near the amount of outrage that Trump caused. In fact with fresh new BlackLivesMatter protests cropping up ever couple weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if most blacks vote for Biden. But more demographics would have to follow suit for a Biden election to be successful.

BLM riots making people vote Biden? Lol no.. They will make people vote Trump (and be quiet about it)..

In 2016 lots of conservatives were unsure of his policies, now they know he will side with conservatism 90% mostly and will make good conservative appointments..

suchmoon

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Quote from: Spendulus on October 31, 2020, 07:54:15 PM

If Trump wins, I say we can put all the people in the business of making polls and forecasts in the bread lines. Or maybe they can all go work in climate science?

You attributed the quote to me incorrectly.

I'm sure you know that "people in the business of making polls and forecasts" operate with probabilities, and those probabilities are almost never 0% or 100%. If Trump had as dice roll chance of getting elected it doesn't mean all dice should be thrown away if he rolls a double six.

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Quote from: Spendulus on October 31, 2020, 07:54:15 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on October 31, 2020, 05:30:56 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on October 30, 2020, 05:20:12 PM

....
Oh damn. 33%. That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

I personally still think Trump is going to squeak by in Texas, then pull a win in Florida. Who knows what'll happen from there, but once those two things happen we'll be looking at a much easier pill to swallow (for conservatives) of 30-70 Biden, instead of 10-90 Biden.

This race is going to be MUCH tigther then the pollsters, 538 included, make it out to be. I'm happy that 538 shows how things can change so very quickly.

If Trump wins, I say we can put all the people in the business of making polls and forecasts in the bread lines. Or maybe they can all go work in climate science?

And if Trump loses, you can believe every future will be accurate for the rest of your life.

Just as rational.

Spendulus

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Quote from: squatz1 on October 31, 2020, 05:30:56 PM

Quote from: suchmoon on October 30, 2020, 05:20:12 PM

....
Oh damn. 33%. That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

I personally still think Trump is going to squeak by in Texas, then pull a win in Florida. Who knows what'll happen from there, but once those two things happen we'll be looking at a much easier pill to swallow (for conservatives) of 30-70 Biden, instead of 10-90 Biden.

This race is going to be MUCH tigther then the pollsters, 538 included, make it out to be. I'm happy that 538 shows how things can change so very quickly.

If Trump wins, I say we can put all the people in the business of making polls and forecasts in the bread lines. Or maybe they can all go work in climate science?

NotATether

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Quote from: nutildah on October 18, 2020, 08:29:55 PM

Today's the 4th anniversary of the birth of this now-famous infographic -- #neverforget
~snip

Trump's in a worse position election-wise than he was in 2016, lots of people are angry with his policies and would vote for Biden to get Trump out of office.

Whatever Hillary did that pissed off voters is nowhere near the amount of outrage that Trump caused. In fact with fresh new BlackLivesMatter protests cropping up ever couple weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if most blacks vote for Biden. But more demographics would have to follow suit for a Biden election to be successful.

squatz1

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 30, 2020, 05:20:12 PM

In Texas of all places more people have already voted than the total turnout in 2016:

https://www.npr.org/2020/10/30/929578710/more-than-9-million-texans-cast-ballots-early-topping-states-total-turnout-in-20

Overall 80+ million people have voted, or 60%+ of 2016 turnout.

This is pretty crazy news. Still have a TON of ballots that are probably still in the pipeline and others that'll prefer to vote in person. So this year is going to most likely by the year of record breaking voter turnout as it's pretty easy to vote this year.

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 31, 2020, 10:12:34 AM

Quote from: Spendulus on October 31, 2020, 09:30:41 AM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 31, 2020, 09:05:58 AM

....
538 has been doing daily election podcasts recently - definitely worth a listen.

Their forcast has Biden winning about 90% of the time. ....

....

Indeed, the enthusiasm of the Biden Harris crowd shows.

Harris's appearance in Fort Worth gathered TRILLIONS of human cells. They were organized neatly into a few dozen actual humans.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/30/dozens-attend-kamala-harris-campaign-event-fort-worth/

Hasn't Texas been solid red for decades? Why would she be campaigning there a few days before the election?

Let me check...

Oh damn. 33%. That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

I personally still think Trump is going to squeak by in Texas, then pull a win in Florida. Who knows what'll happen from there, but once those two things happen we'll be looking at a much easier pill to swallow (for conservatives) of 30-70 Biden, instead of 10-90 Biden.

This race is going to be MUCH tigther then the pollsters, 538 included, make it out to be. I'm happy that 538 shows how things can change so very quickly.

TwitchySeal

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Quote from: Spendulus on October 31, 2020, 09:30:41 AM

Quote from: TwitchySeal on October 31, 2020, 09:05:58 AM

....
538 has been doing daily election podcasts recently - definitely worth a listen.

Their forcast has Biden winning about 90% of the time. ....

....

Indeed, the enthusiasm of the Biden Harris crowd shows.

Harris's appearance in Fort Worth gathered TRILLIONS of human cells. They were organized neatly into a few dozen actual humans.

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/30/dozens-attend-kamala-harris-campaign-event-fort-worth/

Hasn't Texas been solid red for decades? Why would she be campaigning there a few days before the election?

Let me check...

Oh damn. 33%. That's about the same chances they gave Trump to win in 2016.

Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 13. (Read 4674 times)