Topic: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated - page 9. (Read 4674 times)

Biden is in such strong lead at the moment that it seems very unlikely for Trump to win. Sure he can ask for a recount of the votes but this won't make Biden votes disappear. I think Trump knows he is finished and there is not much he can do. There were never three mandates before, this seems very unlikely in my opinion.

yeah, and up to this point, with Trump calling that he will not accept results, there is no Republicans that are calling this down and that all votes should be counted, and results accepted as it is, it was unthinkable for America before Trump, and now they are speaking about it, with four more Trump years, two mandates would be in question, he would probably asking for third mandate

He also can look forward to a shitload of investigations.

I think there's a possibility of some sort of fracture in the Republicans though.  It's could be a weird dynamic with Senators finally able to speak freely about Trump and most likely there will be unapologetic Pro Trump Republicans on one side and openly disgusted with Trump Republicans on the other.

There's also the point that if Biden wins, he then faces a Republican-controlled senate. It's this I think that's a key driver of the buoyant markets. Biden is not going to be able to implement higher taxes, tougher regulations, etc., if he has to get through the Rep senate to do so. Republicans have also flipped some House seats. A Biden administration is not going to have free rein.

If Biden is elected we are going to see a boom in prices both in the stock markets but also in the crypto markets.
Trump wasn't so popular in the Wall Street due to his radical opinions and the way that he wanted to cut the bonds from other countries. Biden is going to give a hope to the money makers that this is going to change.

Wall Street seems to be happy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/election-stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html



Bitcoin seems to be happy:

https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin


Edited 2020-11-30 to fix a broken image

Most of the Liberal media seemed to follow 538s lead (ABC News) that the two most likely scenarios were Biden wins FL and the election is called early (landslide), or it would be a nail biter,  and Trump would spread disinformation/declare victory before there was a clear winner.
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-2020-presidential-election-forecast/

It's conservative media pushing anti liberal media stories that don't have much truth to them.  Pretty smart from a marketing perspective.  

Looking like Biden might pull it off by a hair now. One thing is certain, the media was WAY off with their predictions of a landslide victory.

Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that, bunch of ETH's ones as well.

PolyMarket (ETH) - https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-win-georgia-in-the-2020-presidential-election

BTC is going to be a bunch of gambling websites.

But back to the point - I do think that Trump will end up with Georgia. I know that the absentee ballots are being counted, which is cutting Trumps margin to razor thing territory. Expecting Trump to win by something like 2000-5000 votes at the end of all of this. Nothing to be extremely happy about, as Georgia voted for Trump by a 5% margin in 2016. Though Biden is very strong among the Black voters in Georgia.

As I end most posts ----- WE'LL SEE.

If this thread wasn't moderated by a nazi I'd put some money on GA going to Biden.

At the end of the day (well, one of those days within the next week or so) this election will probably turn out to be a good result for Democrats, considering that they had a barely alive candidate and still managed to flip a few states. Certainly not the type of a "blue wave" some hoped for but defeating an incumbent is always tough.

And then the guy complaining about them being counted will demand they be counted again.

I think og was referring to Trump going into authoritarian mode at 3 am though.

Votes get counted? In some states they will be counted all the way until Friday.

Funny what happens during the dark of night, isn't it?

I don't know if the absentee ballots are going to be enough to propel Biden to victory there, depends on if the rest of the absentee ballots LOOK like the first batch in terms of how many of them are going to biden. If they're 4:1 Biden, then yes he'll be able to win, though if they're 3:1 Biden, it may not be enough.

Pretty sure it's not 2.6M though.

Senate is going to (most likely) end up Red though.


This has been a WILD RIDE OF EMOTIONS LOL.

Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are the ones that really matter here.

(Given I think GA and NC are going to end up for Trump)

CNN just called Michigan.

I am now going to allow myself to get my hopes up.

It's looking very good for Biden now. Won WI, ahead in MI and NV... and projected to win PA by a decent margin. And Trump is throwing lawsuits in all directions... which is as strong an indicator as any of the way this is going. Apparently the protests from Trump supporters have started in Detroit. Let's hope this doesn't get violent.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/upshot/pennsylvania-election-results-ballots.html

Postal vote counts in PA so far match very closely to NYT projections (image on same page), so there's reason to believe the PA call by the NYT will be fairly accurate.

The ramp up to a totalitarian party requires utter orthodoxy.

The other issue is and I have said it a few times. A downstate NY Democrat and a NY Republican probably agree on more things then a downstate NY Democrat and a NM Democrat. Or a SC Republican and a ND Republican. They would never admit it in public 

Yeah, a SC Republican is going to be for fracking but....are they going to risk re-election on it if it really becomes an issue.

I would like to think the "party line voting" that has been going on for years is going to have to change or sooner or later they are all going to get voted out on their asses.

-Dave

It looks like I'll probably end up being right about Biden winning, but I was right only through sheer dumb luck, since I was basing that mainly on polling, and the polling looks to be ridiculously off across the board. I thought that the polling methodology which these pollsters use seemed reasonable & science-based, and would probably be more accurate than 2016 (which wasn't even really that inaccurate), but I guess these pollsters actually have no idea what they're doing. Maybe the whole idea of random sampling is just too difficult to perform nowadays because nobody answers their phones, and online panels are self-selected rather than truly random. The big polling misses two presidential elections in a row is one of the main stories here, and the polling industry is going to have to make major changes if they want anyone to take them seriously going forward.

There's a chance that Trump could still pull it off, but it's difficult from here. He definitely can't lose GA or NC, which it looks like he might, and then he'd have to gain one or more (depending on which) of NV, WI, MI, or PA, all of which he's behind in. If it comes down to just one or maybe two states, I could see him successfully pulling some shenanigans to get a bunch of Democratic ballots thrown out, but it's not as if it's easy to do this: the courts are not just going to rubber-stamp anything that Trump wants, even if they're full of Republican judges, and it's not even easy to find stacks of ballots that you could somehow justify throwing out and which will be sufficiently Dem-leaning. Maybe Trump will try it, but I don't see it working if he has to "steal" several states this way, and even stealing one state like this is a bit of a long shot in itself. And while he might talk tough and refuse to ever concede, he's not actually going to refuse to leave the white house on inauguration day or anything like that.

It looks like the Republicans will retain the Senate, which I'm happy about. That means at least 2 years of gridlock. Biden can still do a lot of harm through the executive branch, and he will get bipartisan agreement on things like pro-war policies, but with the Republicans intentionally trying to obstruct him as much as possible, the damage will be limited. I'm especially happy that Gary Peters will apparently lose his MI Senate seat: I've seen several hearings with him participating, and he's a neoliberal authoritarian of the worst kind. (Not sure if his replacement is any better, though...)

NYT has a nifty chart for the remaining paths to victory:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-uncounted-votes-president.html

(scroll down to the tree-like thing).

BTW there was a snafu of some sort with the completed percentage in Arizona, so it's not yet 98%+ counted as some sites previously reported. So it could technically still be in play.