Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 18. (Read 6237 times)

It appears that you are not familiar with government and the division of power. All government power was never on the president. All power is divided to the executive, legislative and the judiciary branches. A president is not a dictator.

In any case, the official campaign has not begun. The Democrats should be careful that Biden does not climax early hehehehe. This might give Trump time to improve on the polls and win again.

@STT. The electoral college is not a group of random people. It is an electoral body established by the constitution.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College

Is the electoral college that powerful, I get that the constituents matter more then most people can perceive.   It wont change, its there to support the union and I guess to lead away from just too much influence in cities over the large expanse and epic extent of the whole country.   I'm just surprised that Trump can win on this point and somehow it was not underlined to this extent in previous contests and candidates.   I cant remember anyone who has been as divisive as Trump has become.


Regarding Biden, I think the dude is quite vanilla both as a positive and negative trait (if anything his worst element would be to resemble trump in any headline or 'press conference insults' etc.); I expect him to lose without definition and its not a bet I really like as its too favoured but with enough work and definition perhaps that can change over the next few months and its not too late.   So the most important thing could be the VP in defining his judgement and policy to the average voter rather then people who will vote democrat no matter what.    McCain failed with a female VP and in the end I dont believe he made the correct choice really, it didnt help him imo.    Rice as a former cabinet member and with significant experience is far more likely to work out and be respected and add into the ticket as an asset.   Some people were definitely just voting for Hilary because she was a women which imo is silly but I understand the sentiment of wanting proportional representation, I do believe that amount of votes could be of some help and needed to win this race.   I also hope Biden is genuinely willing to take advice and direction from a VP.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/steve-chapman/ct-column-susan-rice-iraq-war-chapman-20200702-bto32c5k6nhx3can3pxf5jgbau-story.html

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/05/susan-rice-biden-veep-349109

trump will win its not about poitics. I made a killing last year on trump. Its really simple electoral college is made for trump and states that trump needs to win he will because not enough demcratc will come out and vote in those states and trump supports will always comes out. They dont support republcains they support trump

Betting against Trump could be a bad idea however we have to realize there is a big big difference between today and 2016 plus there is a big difference between electing senator and electing president. Now the thing with Trump is that, he was basically an unknown before 2016, dude wasn't really given any chance and everyone looked at him like it was a joke run and not a serious one, even he is probably shocked that he won it, however because people didn't cared and everyone guaranteed a Hillary win, he took that as an advantage and won.

Now we have Trump as the president for the past 4 years and people are actually scared of having 4 more years of him. I can't say if you should bet on Biden but dude has a clean record, he was VP and honestly that is the only other option available that is not Trump.

 What really matters for american public and even republicans that they like to look tough. They want to be loved but also feared, they have this weird american way of thinking that they should be the biggest nation in all of the world and everyone should know them and love them and fear them while they are free to not know any other nation, could be ignorant about them, and they have a right to do that as americans because they live in the best nation in the world.

 When you look at Trump and how he was treated all over the world, you see that he was mocked by not by only the people in their own country, but in other nations as well, he was basically a laughing stock to everyone and that means they are not feared anymore at all. Which means even republicans have a fundemental and a selfish reason to not like him as well.

 I can see this year going to Biden very easily, but I am still not %100 sure.

Probably yes he can "survive" also this time.
But this time it's very different, and it can worth bet against him if there are good odds.
The information that we are seeing in EU show a contradictory man.
Due COVID19 management he has loss a lot of "power" and trust. He isn't anymore strong enough to fight against the whole situation.

I mean there is a strong second wave of infections. There is not propaganda that can help to hide a disaster like this, numbers are speaking by itself, and calling "china virus" doesn't appear the best move ...

any information on how's Trump propaganda on social media lately?
last election with Cambridge Analytica and all the facebook situation he had a good boost because of it.

good that slowly the people start to wake up.

I would rather say that Biden is in a much stronger position right now, compared to Hillary four years back. Between 2016 and 2020, political preferences across the United States have changed, and more so in some of the crucial swing states such as Arizona, rust belt states, Virginia, North Carolina.etc. And the bad news for Trump is that none of these changes are beneficial for him.

You have the point. To bet against Trump on elections isn't very wise thing to do. At first I also didn't expect that he might be a president and that man like he can rule anything and not country like America. On the second thought he's probably the exact choice if average American and how they think and behave so I wouldn't be surprised if he wins again.
He survived impeachment attempt, he doesn't care about Congress or Senate, it seems that he can do whatever he wants. I wouldn't bet my money against him.

I would never ever bet against Trump on any election. Dude shouldn't even be the president right now, he has absolutely no qualifications that makes him a good president but he gave a great lesson to American public by becoming president, that you can be anything you want as long as you are willing to get dirty and have powerful connections.

Plus, we now know that America is not really ruled by the president but more like senate, if the senate doesn't want president do to something they can stop him, who can stop the senate? Not really much.

There was even impeachment where congress found Trump guilty, that is their job to see if he is really guilty or not and when the impeachment was on senate it was already decided that he was guilty. What happened? Senate decided not to do anything about it and not give him a punishment. I hate trump as much as the next guy but I wouldn't put money on him losing between all of this horrible things he is capable of doing.

I speculate that this might be a political move by the people behind the Trump administration. They will make a deal and make her talk about the top Democrats who might have used Jeffrey Epstein's services hehehe.

Ghislaine is also a supporter of Hillary and Democrats where she has made a donation.

This might be the scandal of the year and destroy Biden's campaign.



While Ghislaine Maxwell’s arrest Thursday in relation to her confidant Jeffrey Epstein’s sex crimes answered some questions about her life – revealing, for example, that she hid at a sprawling, million-dollar New Hampshire estate, where she was picked up in a morning raid – still more questions arose about what’s next for the mysterious British socialite.

As she sits in custody, at the top of many minds was whether Maxwell – long accused of grooming underage victims for Epstein – will cooperate with prosecutors.

Source https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/03/what-next-for-ghislaine-maxwell-will-she-cooperate-with-prosecutors

Hilary had a movement behind her, she was unique in their focus to elect and would have been a ground breaking candidate to successfully elect yet she failed.   Biden is quite different and just a representative of 'more of the same', I'd love to say he represents a great push towards a particular vision but my take is he hopes to cruise in on a victory based largely on his opponents weaknesses.    We're back to 2016 in how Trump appears totally diabolical and inappropriate to some as a candidate and as a representative diplomatically for USA in the world but as a unique character that will hold up concepts and laws some people want to be held in government he is still their man and they are loyal to him.   Without trying to criticise either side or their policies, who has the more loyalty and political fervor in their supporters.
   Who represents the greatest difference to the norm, somehow its probably still going to be Trump.   Biden for example says he will revert tax cuts that were made, I'm not saying he is wrong but he is a reversion to the norm more then doing new things or a bold new vision or whatever.  Polls are always an approximation, people often dislike my obsession with statistics and charts and all kinds of projections but I'll always agree its just a speculation or guess of future possibilities and polls are very much in that category.   People will state out loud who they will vote for but they also check which candidate will reduce their pay check and then vote that way, I dont blame them its just the way it is.

biden is more electable than hillary was. people still underestimate how hated she was, and not only among republicans. the democrats are much better positioned with a political dud like biden than her.  

but yeah, i still think it's not far from a coin flip, which is why these are decent odds to bet trump. i'm still hoping for one more dip, but waiting for 3.33+ might turn out to be greedy.


The coronavirus may have mutated to become more infectious, Dr. Anthony Fauci says

that's the last thing trump needs, indeed! if reopenings get rolled back and especially if states go into full lockdown again, his eternal coronavirus optimism will backfire and the markets will take a big shit. if trump can't even pump the stock market, then what the hell is he good for?

The difference with Hillary was that she was in front almost all the time. She had odds of winning of around 1.4 and still she lost.
Who will win this year, will probably depend heavily on how the Corona crisis evolves and right now it is not in Trump's favour. I am betting on Biden but I keep it low stake.

 Trump losing is a bigger deal than Biden winning for the USA people which is why there is a bigger chance Biden wins this year. What worked last year was making sure that Bernie supporters try to make their voices heard, they did this because they imagined Hillary Clinton would win hands down without questions and it wasn't even close, which is why they din't voted and wanted to make DNC realize how much their vote worths. Not only it didn't worked because Biden won over Bernie this year as well, but also they lost presidency to Trump as well.

 This year everyone who hates Trump will get together and they will vote for anyone, even a trash can if they have to, in order to not pick trump for president again. Its just not even close, we are talking about a guy who knew Russia put bounty on American soldiers and still worked to get Russia accepted to G summit. Thats literally just the latest, he also ignored all of corona virus warnings and because of him a lot more people died, if it was someone sensible there would be tens of thousands of people alive. Its just not even close.

 So I would wager on Biden easily, its a clear choice and not because Biden is a good candidate, his odds of winning doesn't go up because people love him or he does something great, thats not whats going on, his chances of winning goes up because everyone hates Trump more and more and more.

I don't think so Biden's odds have been going down all the time in the last weeks and everything went his way - I guess he can't believe it himself and he didn't add a lot to that, he just had to stay healthy and show up a bit in public, do some interviews etc. I find it more likely for his odds to go up again. And if not, they won't go much lower imo, so small upside, but big downside betting on these odds right now. What should happen for Trumps odds to go even higher ? You can't do a lot worse than Trump is doing right now and there were some positive signs lately as mentioned in this thread (at least economy-wise).


If you are looking for a hedge/trade I would start with Trump as per the above. But if Dr. Fauci is correct with his prognosis, I might be the one to be completely wrong; thats the (hard) fun with betting

Thanks for the update. Betting on Biden seems a good bet at the moment. But I also think betting at least some money on Trump could be a good hedge for the next election. I am waiting for better odds to get a good payout. Who knows how the campaign will end, it's probably just another coin toss like with Hillary.

Good points there that I hadn't considered.

Lol, Trump had had approval raiting around 30 % before he started president race, in 2018 as you can see in link in my post you quoted. So this is obvious that Trump already the president with the biggest anti rating. But anyway, his rating through some people is too strong, much stronger than Bush had, so Trump is more acceptable compared to Bush.

perspective is everything:



the numbers got a nice bump from businesses reopening across the country, but i don't see why that would sustain month after month. all the optimism about unemployment is gonna disappear with a single bad month's data, as everyone realizes jobs can't be created nearly as fast as they were lost. there was also a bump in retail demand since people were cooped up in their houses for months and were eager to go out and spend money. i view that effect as temporary.

i also think the trump administration is actively pushing the bureau of labor and statistics to under report job losses. several million people have inexplicably been removed from the total labor force (significantly lowering the unemployment rate) and they are also counting millions of furloughed people as employed. the only explanation for that is political.

trump may have hit bottom but IMO this reprieve will be short-lived. i think his odds still have a ways to drop in the coming weeks.


no big change. trump's odds had just declined 1% or so and biden's hadn't budged, so i was trying to figure out why.