Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 20. (Read 6260 times)

I'm not into this kind of thing

So there might be a very specific term in the bookmaking parlance but since you asked and as far as I know, what you are looking for is called arbitrage, i.e. taking offsetting positions to generate a riskless profit. With that said and hopefully being right, I'm not sure if you can technically pull it off with the same bookie (though I'm still interested to find out if you actually can, so bear with me)

At least do not try to bet on both them in one book, because i don't know how in your country, but in our (and i think this is in every another country) books banning account if they find that you're doing forks. 

And yeah, interesting idea, But i think the better chances to bet on Biden gone long time ago. ( i mean that his raiting will not fall, so odds for him will be lower and lower)

Obama is fully in support of Joe Biden, he has raised about $16million for Joe Biden elections. The presidential election this year, will not be easy for Trump.

I do wish America government will launch blockchain based online voting and election system cos South Korea reveals to launch theirs beforehand
https://cryptocrunchapp.com/news/south-korea-reveals-to-launch-blockchain-based-online-voting-and-election-system

Joe Biden is a solid guy. He's always seen as the Obama sidekick, I remember seeing them youtube videos about their quirkiness.

It would certainly elevate USA in my eyes once agains as a land where people are welcome with a warm smile rather than a racist snarl.


Does it matter if the odds are against him? I think he already said he does not want to be involved in politics anymore. Correct me if I say wrong... might have seen some fake news on the situation.

Im not sure even Trumps most loyal supporters are going to get behind a gigantic screwup if the spread of this virus gets out of hand and makes USA the worst example of management world wide.   Maybes theres worse and just the stats dont reflect it but theres no way to cover it up in usa in an election year when so many want him out.

The problem is this current data isnt the problem, the fallout is Autumn and Winter where apparently the effects of any flu type propagation get worse and then time that together with a November election and most people will vote on that day not prior.   Maybe they can still fix it or in some luck its not as bad in spreading as feared but I doubt a vaccine can arrive to help before November, its really about December at best and mostly 2021.    I wouldnt be surprised if most healthy people with no special need dont get anything maybe till 2 or even 3 years in.  Unless its judged cheaper to do everyone collectively and then you have the problem of some resisting the idea, some cant handle wearing a mask for 5 minutes in a shop which is no big request seriously.

yes, that's the basic idea. this is what i had said:


i want to bet on trump when the odds are deeply against him, then also bet on biden in the next couple months assuming trump's numbers recover. effectively i would be betting against the punters who took low money odds on either candidate, and not so much betting on the outcome itself.

i still don't have a strong opinion about the outcome---so many unknowns and unpredictable factors this far out. this seems like the only logical way to approach it.

Why so, what a logic to do that? As i remember, it was you who told me that Trump has few chances to win.

Does it mean, that you already bet on Biden and now trying to do some kind of "golden middle"? (i don't know a correct term in english, in postUSSR we have our term for that - "betting fork" ), when it doesnt matter which one will win, you will get your profit anyway?

the books don't price odds based on what they expect the outcome to be. they price them based on what punters are betting, so they make a small but reliable profit no matter the outcome.

it's the punters (and the pollsters) who seem to have learned from 2016. they aren't betting on a landslide---not yet at least.

trump down to 35%......below 30%, i start betting on him. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

Trump is on a better position today than what the sportsbooks offered on this month on 2016 hehehe. The sportsbooks might have learned from their mistake, however, I speculate the Democrats might be overconfident based on some of the news articles I have read.

Source https://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures

Many of the right-wingers are now including populist financial policies, in order to broaden their support base. Proper Republicans are fiscally conservative, and they would try their best to limit "wasteful" spending, such as welfare payments. But Trump has gone to the opposite direction, by adopting more and more fiscally liberal policies. He is mixing his right-wing policies on immigration and crime, with left-wing policies on welfare and trade.

Odds on this website are just wrong, but I will take them gladly.
https://odds.watch/trump-2020

Better to check this presidental election race animation as this is popular now in bitcointalk forum
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2881414/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/2881414

not exactly---otherwise i'd be betting. most polls were hovering around 80% in favor of clinton on election day IIRC, with betting odds around 75%. we've still got a ways to go from there. betfair is still pricing biden at 57% to win.

@figmentofmyass, @STT. Trump is a populist with an inclination towards authoritarianism to run his policies. I reckon Bernie is similar to Trump, however more reasonable.

In any case, the polls, the odds has suddenly made it become 2016 again where the Democrats were so certain that Hillary would win.

The speculative money shorter term participants might be left but the longer term back bone, the old timers I would characterise as right wing or conservative at least financially.   I'd just put it as people who think national debt can rise forever and its wealth creation so why not more and another group who expect failure and destructive debt failure at some point, for the moment that'd be considered to the right.   The old hands in BTC wont sell because they know the dollar cannot reverse failures its suffered, inversely its best to hold BTC but thats a stern stance vs most speculators that pop in here.   Same would be true for YEN or EURO or lots of other fiscal considerations, its not politics and it is because the maths behind whats been done is so bad.
   Trump is left wing but he appeals to conservative voters in rhetoric who've given up honest representation from the alternatives.   I dont think Trump is a politician, he is still playing TV host of a game just its a bit bigger now.   If you didnt know Trump was a member of the democrat party prior to switching to this side.  I realise he appears right but my main take is always the tax revenue and expenditure, you can only have views you pay for and in that regard he is left wing weak or easy money over spender.    Somebody has to clear up that mess in future but its very hard to say as far left and far right policies often resemble each other and the political horse shoe almost meets in the middle.
   My simple take is the whole spectrum now is rebased to the left, we've gone with easy money for decades so who would not take the easier path given by that on various policies, so every party is to the left in their outlook until it falls apart.

trump 37%
biden 58%

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

we're getting there.....


trump in many ways is not a conservative, so you can't view opposition to him as strictly left vs right. lots of right leaning people think he doesn't serve conservative principles, and that he isn't a person of character.

he has also expressed disdain for bitcoin/cryptocurrency---apparently he even wanted to “go after bitcoin” in 2018, so that should have some effect on the views of bitcoin users. https://decrypt.co/32711/trump-first-wanted-to-go-after-bitcoin-in-2018-says-john-bolton


fundamentally, neither.

bitcoin as an investment tends to appeal more to fiscal conservative types because it's so hard/scarce---the same reason there is overlap between gold bugs and right wing philosophies.

however, at its core bitcoin is still just another form of money. most left leaning philosophies don't seek to abolish money itself, and those that do tend to realize the necessity of money in the shorter term. the days where bitcoin users were mostly right leaning libertarians ended many years ago.

bitcoin also isn't the only cryptocurrency---most altcoins have much softer monetary policies. there are even ones that are more inflationary than major fiat currencies, so even the keynesians can take their pick of the lot.


decentralization =/= left or right. this is why libertarians and anarchists can't generally be defined as either. there are right libertarians and there are left libertarians.

 It is both left leaning but also right leaning as well. It is qutie republican in the sense that you do not work at all, you just put your money into money and make money, sounds incredibly absurd right? Look at stock market, tens of trillions of dollars worth stock market is consisting of "put money and your money will make money" idea. So bitcoin trading, bitcoin investments, bitcoin futures, all of these are highly republican stuff that any wall street banking guy would love to get their hands on and bribe politicians to let it happen.

 It is also quite left leaning as well only because we are talking about a currency that was created to go against the wall streets and stock markets and the whole idea of decentralization came in just because governments do not mind killing the economy for the poor people just to save the people that bribe them. Of course its not like that right now because wall street got into bitcoin world but the system was created to be against them yet they found a way to make it work for them and profit them as well.

 So we can summarize it by saying the creation of it was quite left but it started to be a bit more right with time.

Bitcoin is neither left-leaning nor right-leaning. I would say that Bitcoin is rather Libertarian. So you can't group Bitcoin broadly with either of the two camps. The inventor of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto remains anonymous till date. But it is widely known that he is a libertarian. Also, among both Democrats and Republicans, you can find politicians who are in favor, and against Bitcoin.

My friend asked me if Bitcoin is left leaning or right leaning, I cannot answer that question since I am seeing a lot of non-Trump supporters out here on this thread - not sure it's just an observation. So I will ask your opinion on this question. Is cryptocurrency left leaning or right leaning? I have the assumption that it is left leaning because of many anti-Trump supporting this but also right leaning because this is decentralization, which is not really what the left wants. Enlighten my friend please. Thank you.

Trump's online stream and tv viewers reached 11 million according to Neilsen ratings, however. The Democrats should not commit a similar mistake of overconfidence that they have done on 2016 with Hillary.

I speculate that the silent majority and some moderate democrats might vote for Trump because they do not want violence, book burning and the destruction of their culture. This is an issue many Democrats are ignoring and some are supporting.

This speech was funny hehehe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdiqyKm0UwU

I would say Biden will not lose the vote himself if he does something, he can do all the mistakes he wants, the ball is on Trumps court.

Right now, Trump will win as long as he keeps his voters and his voters go out to vote, democrats are known to not go out to vote far more than republicans. The overall vote count could be higher for Hillary but the places she lost that caused her the presidency is the places where democrats are registered or even there basically but didn't voted for her.

So right now, we know that democrats in some states will probably not go out to vote, what will matter is will republicans? If republicans once again all show up together they will win Trump the election but if Trump is not getting their votes that means he will lose. The thing is Biden is not doing well anyway, he is already losing votes, however Trump does it faster.