US Presidential Election 2020 - page 22.

johhnyUA

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Quote from: bbc.reporter on June 19, 2020, 02:27:42 AM

I am skeptical about John Bolton's timing. Sometimes in politics, a politician orders his own people to attack him with fake news only to prove to everyone that they are fake news. This changes the people's perception on the real issues as also fake news which also causes distrust on the people and the news outlets that are attacking the politician.

Trump approval rating still fall down :c

But at least this is not the worst times for him, in 2018 his raiting was near 37 percent, and now is 41.5 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

And his odds drifting, but not so much (as raiting) - https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

So i think this is another proof of his great chances for winning. If he would be so bad for anyone, he would be already in the pit of rating.

bitgolden

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You know whats sad about Trump? He might have done all of those things listed and nobody would be shocked. The trouble with Trump supporters is that they would find a way to justify anything, and I mean anything just so Trump would continue to be president. They would rather live in a bad country ruled by the person they voted for instead of ruled in a good country ruled by a person they didn't voted for.

You can have the greatest nation in entire history with a democrat president (you won't) and republicans will still hate them, or you could have millions of people starving to death with tens of millions of people homeless but as long as it is republican they would be fine. That is why they win so much of senate and house and even produce presidents in turns, because democrats do blame themselves when they do a mistake which causes them to lose votes but republicans will always vote republican, not matter what.

Captain Corporate

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If you wanted to sum up one thing about Trump election process (now and 4 years ago) that would be fake news. Its not fake news against him, its fake news for him. There has been a million topics about how his people hired companies and workers to spread fake but good news about him all over internet, literally factually wrong stuff, attack the other candidate with once again facually wrong stuff and did this for millions of people for every minute of every day until election day. He spread lies constantly, he is the president that told the most factually wrong things as in lies, and there is really no other way to approach his election as ignoring him. If you keep on trying to correct him, he will win, just ignore him and find something else that you could focus on.

STT

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The double bluff, are we really going to give Trump credit to that extent. He really does seem to make a comedy amount of enemies, its very un politics like to publicly declare so many enemies (formerly allies) so he is true to that path at least & perhaps that helps him remain popular. He does want to be the underdog forever, commander in chief of the worlds only superpower but somehow he is wanting to use the same angle as 4 years ago. Might be stretching his luck on that one, he cant claim like Bush that an attack came at the start of his tenure so its unavoidable some policy consequences are in his quarter.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 18, 2020, 04:26:42 AM

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true Grin

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
didn't know that UK had the bomb
seriously considered leaving the NATO

Now we don't know what is really true about that all and I think such things do not only happen in US/Trump. Thats why they all have advisors and big staff to take care of them - without them, lots of leaders would be lost imo Grin

Trump of course called all that bs in TV and on his Twitter account:

Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273468029712707584

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

I am skeptical about John Bolton's timing. Sometimes in politics, a politician orders his own people to attack him with fake news only to prove to everyone that they are fake news. This changes the people's perception on the real issues as also fake news which also causes distrust on the people and the news outlets that are attacking the politician.

figmentofmyass

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punters continue to favor biden---latest chances to win per betfair:

-trump 40%
-biden 54%

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

neither side is worth betting at the moment IMO. i'll lay some bets on trump if he ever gets to the 3.33-4 range. i'm hoping the dumpster fire continues for a while.

the crowd's gonna go wild when biden announces kamala as his running mate.....

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 18, 2020, 04:26:42 AM

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true Grin

they are, but i don't see them doing any major political damage. trump consistently for years has looked like a buffoon but his rhetoric of deny, deny, deny and attack, attack, attack seems to save him every time. accusations and facts don't matter all that much in a political atmosphere where everything can just be written off as "fake news". bolton is getting his 15 minutes and getting a taste of that sweet sweet book deal money, and liberals are enjoying it a bit too much---that's all i see happening.

babygun

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 18, 2020, 04:26:42 AM

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true Grin

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
didn't know that UK had the bomb
seriously considered leaving the NATO

Now we don't know what is really true about that all and I think such things do not only happen in US/Trump. Thats why they all have advisors and big staff to take care of them - without them, lots of leaders would be lost imo Grin

Trump of course called all that bs in TV and on his Twitter account:

Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273468029712707584

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

Some of the allegations look funny, but they are probably real.
Trump for sure is giving the world some entertainment, but let's hope that Biden gets elected in November. The world needs a real president and not a clown Grin

.

Darkoth89

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 18, 2020, 04:26:42 AM

[...]

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

Actually, I was amused when he was elected in 2016. Mainly I was glad that it wasn't Hillary Clinton who won, but I was keen to see how he'd mix up the American politics. But I couldn't have imagined how incompetent he really is as a politician. From these Bolton accusations you listed, not a single one surprises me! Okay, maybe a bit that he openly asked Xi for help to get re-elected but his ignorance in foreign affairs and that he does whatever comes to his mind? That's really nothing new!

And even though a second term of Trump would definitely be something entertaining, I would be glad without it. An unpredictable US is absolutely not what the world needs right now.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 18, 2020, 04:26:42 AM

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true Grin

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
didn't know that UK had the bomb
seriously considered leaving the NATO

Don't have a very good opinion about John Bolton. But that said, I won't be much surprised even if some of these allegations are proven to be true. First of all, Trump doesn't have any experience in politics. He became the most powerful person on the planet, just because the Democrats put up a candidate who was extremely unelectable. He is a good businessman, but a bad politician.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true Grin

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
didn't know that UK had the bomb
seriously considered leaving the NATO

Now we don't know what is really true about that all and I think such things do not only happen in US/Trump. Thats why they all have advisors and big staff to take care of them - without them, lots of leaders would be lost imo Grin

Trump of course called all that bs in TV and on his Twitter account:

Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273468029712707584

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

verita1

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The Trump campaign will have its first Rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma after three months since the coronavirus crisis.
Tulsa's officials think the rally would cause a new outbreak. In recent days, due to the protest over the death of George Floyd, an increase in infected people have been observed. Although the Trump team says it will offer participants masks, antibacterial gel and take their temperature. The authorities disagree. I think that if Trump listened to all the governors of the nation and was concerned with reducing the new cases of coronavirus, that would be a good campaign to win the preference of the vote for his reelection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-rally.html

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: tyz on June 16, 2020, 04:01:42 PM

Agree to both of you. There is another factor which could play an important role this time: China. According to current surveys negative views of China continues to grow in the USA, among Republicans and Democrats. Two thirds of Americans are unfavorable to China, the highest number since decades. Trump is known for his negative attitude towards China, while Biden is considered to be more China-friendly. If Trump bets on this card and takes advantage of it, it could bring voters on his side.

I don't know how many of the voters would be swayed by the China issue, unless there is a major physical confrontation involving both the United States Armed Forces and the PLA. At the most 1% or 2% of the voters may treat this issue as important. And I don't agree with your finding that Biden is more China-friendly. And even if there is such an assumption, then the Democrats know how to deal with it.

tyz

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Quote from: figmentofmyass on June 15, 2020, 06:28:52 PM

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 15, 2020, 02:04:24 PM

You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

there are too many big variables at present, one of which is the economy/coronavirus. with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths on the rise (which will probably spike even more given recent reopenings and protests) i expect new shelter-in-place/social distancing orders in the summer or fall. after all, those decisions are up to state governors (who are much more concerned about public health than trump) and not the federal government. i think the economy and markets might take a shit at the worst possible time for trump, in the heat of election season.

in any case i'm definitely taking the trump bet if he starts getting priced like 2016. we're nowhere near there yet.

Agree to both of you. There is another factor which could play an important role this time: China. According to current surveys negative views of China continues to grow in the USA, among Republicans and Democrats. Two thirds of Americans are unfavorable to China, the highest number since decades. Trump is known for his negative attitude towards China, while Biden is considered to be more China-friendly. If Trump bets on this card and takes advantage of it, it could bring voters on his side.

Vishnu.Reang

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Quote from: yazher on June 16, 2020, 05:03:02 AM

Trump has no chance of winning if we see how he has handled the current situation but you will not know the result until it comes. also, these people will not suspend the election amidst the Corona Pandemic crisis because they have different settings of voting. you don't need to go out from your home to vote for your desirable candidate if I'm not mistaken you only need to vote with your phone. unlike in our country, you need to go to the specified places to vote. where you will be gathered with all of the people which will make things worse because there will be no social distancing anymore.

No. That's wrong info as far as I know. In the United States, voting using the smartphone is not allowed. You need to request for the absentee ballot, in case you can't vote during the election day. Then you need to send the ballot back to the counting office, by mail. And that's why I believe that this time the voter turnout is going to be very low. Now the question is, which of the two major candidates may get more impacted by that.

yazher

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Things does not look good for 2020 as we all are gong through pandemic situation. Also, this would now be the major thing for the Trump and the people as vote will swing based on the handling of this major event. Rest of the other things done in last 2 years may still be considered but Corona has hijacked the rest of the things. And this does not look good as highest cases and deaths are in US only and no other nation is as close as where US stands currently with Corona patients.

Trump has no chance of winning if we see how he has handled the current situation but you will not know the result until it comes. also, these people will not suspend the election amidst the Corona Pandemic crisis because they have different settings of voting. you don't need to go out from your home to vote for your desirable candidate if I'm not mistaken you only need to vote with your phone. unlike in our country, you need to go to the specified places to vote. where you will be gathered with all of the people which will make things worse because there will be no social distancing anymore.

STT

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I cannot agree. I reckon that what might work for Donald Trump might be a disastrous blunder for the campaign of Joe Biden.

Thats observable in 30 seconds I'd say, plain and simple Biden already was the President, vice but still his name is on the ticket and he is part of that administration so I'm sure his campaign has no plan to attempt to approach this as some kind of underdog or outsider type attack vector. He should have been running in 2016 so its a clear point against him from the start that he is late here, cant remember if this late vice attempt for a run has occurred before. I didnt think I'd actually see it happen tbh but in this chaos its a minor detail.

Trump from what I heard of the two is clinging like a dog with a bone to this underdog narrative and its nonsense at this point and a reason for failure, but without any better plan perhaps thats still his best chance. If I hear drain the swamp or similar comments without thought I know he is scratched record skipping on repeat and nobody is actively doing anything there to steer this. I'm still going to guess the precedent is with reelection not a challenger, not the polls directly but the economic figures might be the best guide to the result in November.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on June 15, 2020, 09:51:56 AM

Quote from: bbc.reporter on June 14, 2020, 09:23:31 PM

@Vishnu.Reang. Also, what states have the highest cases of the coronavirus and the highest projected cases of the virus on November? Blue states or red states?

The democrats also want to defund the police. Minneapolis has begun doing this. What would be its effect on independent voters?

LOL.. They want to disband the police force? There can't be anything more lunatic than this. A country such as the United States won't be able to function without the police force. This is pure insanity.

From what I have seen, the pandemic is affecting the blue states more than the red states. Even in the red states, the impact is being felt more on counties where the African-Americans, Hispanics and Amerindians make up substantial portion of the population. A few examples are Hancock County (GA) with 3.5 deaths per 1,000 people and McKinley (NM) with 2 deaths per 1,000.

Yes some democrat politicians support defund the police. However, there are some moderate democrat voters who are protecting historic landmarks and denounce the politicians that support the destruction of the extreme left. They might begin to support Trump, I reckon.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 15, 2020, 02:04:24 PM

You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

there are too many big variables at present, one of which is the economy/coronavirus. with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths on the rise (which will probably spike even more given recent reopenings and protests) i expect new shelter-in-place/social distancing orders in the summer or fall. after all, those decisions are up to state governors (who are much more concerned about public health than trump) and not the federal government. i think the economy and markets might take a shit at the worst possible time for trump, in the heat of election season.

in any case i'm definitely taking the trump bet if he starts getting priced like 2016. we're nowhere near there yet.

tyKiwanuka

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#birdgang

Quote from: babygun on June 15, 2020, 02:43:41 PM

Even the bookmakers make mistakes Grin

.

At this point it's not the bookmakers that make the odds Wink

In fact, they stopped already long ago - it's all the market, i.e. the punters, that move the odds. The bookmakers only adjust the odds according to the bets they get and even if they get no action at all, they will still be forced to do what the general market does to not leave any surebets on the table and risking their balanced book.

So market thinks that Biden is favoured now and I think so too, if the election was tomorrow. However all these bets are for November and you rarely see something going down forever pre-match. Or lets say in such a dynamic market, with so many angles and external factors, it would surprise me, if we don't see Biden trading above 2.00 again in the upcoming weeks.

babygun

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on June 15, 2020, 02:04:24 PM

Quote from: Vishnu.Reang on June 15, 2020, 12:58:04 PM

I agree with most of your points, but not with Trump being the safest bet. I had posted in this thread a few weeks back. Trump needs to win a majority of the swing states and he seems to be trailing badly in almost all of them. Only FL is giving him any hope. He is facing disaster in states such as AZ, NH, MI, MN, VA, PA.etc. For me, Biden seems to be the front runner right now and IMO he is being under-rated by the bookies.

Trump doesn't look a good bet right now (maybe a good trade though), but tbh everything falls into place for Biden at the moment Cheesy

Trump has his back against the wall, but as fast as things turned around, they can make a U-turn again and go in the other direction. I am not convinced, that it will be a 1.01 train for Biden from here on, that would be too easy. The US is probably at the lowest point right now economy-wise and with civil unrest. I already said at 1.97, that I found Biden too low, now he is 1.89 and you will probably see me writing here again at 1.70, but I still think Trump will get re-elected. You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

Just imagine the odds, if the Democrats had a proper candidate, 1.40 maybe ?!

While I agree with you, but 4 years ago Clinton was prime favorite in becoming president (odds around 1.4 - 1.5) and still she lost. Even the bookmakers make mistakes Grin

.
Things can change quickly but I think that Biden has a good chance of winning.

Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 22. (Read 6240 times)