Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 21. (Read 6260 times)

that's an interesting take, i hadn't considered that. i too was very taken aback by those pictures. i've never once seen trump look so defeated before.


indeed! 2.7 is still not that interesting to me. 3.0 is justifiable, and at 3.33-4.0 i am racing to get bets in. not so much because i have a strong opinion about who will win, but as a bet against punters taking biden with terrible odds.

it's sort of like when bitcoin price goes parabolic---it's impossible to predict the top, but you know there will be lots of blood once the top is in.

I was VERY surprised when I saw the footage to say the least. He looked like a beaten man, tired and worn out. I think I rarely saw a politcian with his tie just hanging around his neck and walking like a zombie. This is very un-Trump-ish, who normally doesn't show any signs of weakness (voluntarily) and always has good fighting spirit. I can only imagine this being political calculation to show a more human picture of him. No matter how tired and disappointed you are here, you can always walk 100m properly and put your tie in place beforehand


Yep. I wonder how much lower/weaker he can get, nothing seems to go his way right now. I guess it could get even worse - lets see what happens next^^ - but as you say, at some point in the next weeks/months, things will change for the better for Trump and he will get some momentum again. The difficulty lies in finding that good entry point to open a trade; he could go to 3.0, 3.5 or 4.0 before there is a turnaround.

i thought these were solid reads on the political climate:



the one thing on trump's side is time. he is looking very weak right now, but the news cycle is such that---barring another coronavirus meltdown---his image and the momentum behind his campaign will probably be strongly recovering in the fall.

that's why trump looks a lot more interesting at 2.7 than biden does at 1.7.

I am not sure whether this is the right strategy. If this repeats, then Trump may increase the ticket price, and the liberals may end up sponsoring his presidential election campaign. What they did in Tulsa is OK, and it will act for shock value. But I would not recommend repeating this, especially when Trump is unlikely to mobilize his support base, due to the pandemic and party as a result of his low approval ratings.

I'm pretty sure this election will bring another devastating result again since we can't really tell now what the majority of the US citizens. That rally will not really give any hope to the people rather it gives them a risk to be affected with this mysterious virus. I called them mysterious now because I have never seen such a thing or read from the past history of the pandemic. where I have seen someplace who are badly affected by it and still manage to make their life as normal as they used to be.

I do not think turnouts at rallies can be used to measure support. You have to remember that only Trump supporters do not fear the coronavirus, whereas it is pretty clear the ones who understood it the most were Biden supporters.

So I am sure they are not worried. Polls show anything they want too, they know better in their own camps I am sure.

@coinfinger that’s a smart move as I too feel that Trump will win, once he realises that he needs to stop coming out in the media and shift the limelight on Biden. It’s pertinent to note that Biden has done nothing spectacular to take the lead, and he’s locked himself away and he’s only earning this lead because of Trumps errors. However once Biden is forced to come out on the stage he’ll loose the lead, by making mistakes especially like the one where he said black people are not black if they vote for Trump.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjones/2020/06/21/trump-rally-sees-joe-bidens-presidental-odds-improve-presidential-election-betting-update/#15cbaa687da8

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/05/28/heres-why-black-americans-were-mad-bidens-comment-even-if-theyd-say-same-thing-themselves/

I would say betting on Trump right now could be the smart money. Now I am not saying Trump will win, and I really really really hope he loses, I rather see an empty bucket be the president than Trump. However, let's remember 4 years ago when initially he had 1% chance to be Republican nominee, from there to presidency he won everything.

So, I do not trust any polls when it is about Trump, if it was someone else, if it was some senate race, if it was something related to congress I would trust polls and what they say about the republican versus democrat candidates, I would even trust polls if it is about the presidential election but between another republican versus any democrat. However this dude beat the whole odds and became president, so I can't really ever be sure about him losing no matter how much the gap grows.

that's the idea, yes. people are getting too confident in biden. ideally we will reach december 2018/january 2019 levels of anti-trump sentiment again. that'll be the time to take the trump trade IMO:



that is fucking hilarious! well executed trolling!

If it were possible to jump on the hype train and bet Biden only to then later sell that bet and cashout long before the result and it can bounce back to what is likely going to be a close cut election anyhow.   That would be ideal because people are going to over speculate on this as if Biden is a knight in shining armour when he is really in frequent danger himself of lampooning his own campaign.   Its hard to believe anyone could make as many oppsies as Trump manages daily but Biden should give him a run for his money in that regard before November.
   In terms of memes and comedy politics we are living in a golden age not likely repeated for generations, Iam going to be sad when it reverts to utter boredom and plain gravity stops the nonsense fiscal policies etc.

Looks like Trump actually got outmaneuvered by K-pop fans and TikTok users, which is kind of hilarious Seemingly, they bought those "a million tickets", but never (intended to) show up. I do feel a bit bad for Trump (not sure why), but it's funny nonetheless.

ROFL. They are not going to postpone the elections. Most of the businesses are open in the United States and despite this, the number of new cases remain very low (at least compared to the peak they had in April). If there is no large and sudden spike in the next few months, the elections will go ahead as planned. However, as I had mentioned earlier, the turnout is going to be at record low levels, even with all the absentee ballots and early voting.

Initially i thought that these US elections may be postponed due to covid-19, but now it seems that i was wrong. Seeing the yesterday rally, it seems the election will be held on time.
Also It's too conclude that trump odds are going down, there is still few months left in the election and anything can change.

Would make sense if you fully trust the polls. I found an interesting article on Oddsshark (btw a really great site if you do betting regularly) which summarizes the presidential race 2016. Relying on the odds, it was always a good idea to bet on Clinton. But we know what the final result was.

Yesterdays rally in Tulsa didn't help Trump, Bidens odds have even gone further down to around 1.80 now. The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.


Source: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/06/trump-s-tulsa-rally-empty-seats-outdoor-speeches-cancelled-after-poor-turnout.html

While I think it's understandable that a lot of seats remained empty - who wants to be indoors with 19k other people during these times - I am surprised by the cancellation of the outdoor speech due to underwhelming crowd, since being in a crowd outdoors is not that risky and you can distance yourself better. Republicans say it was due to protestors, fake news etc., but the betting markets reacted nonetheless.

I didn't watch it all yet, just some parts, but Trump said, that he asked for the Corona testing to be slowed down, to not have that many cases. Now a lot of countries have their own methods to make the numbers look good/better - China is only counting symptomatic cases - which is just part of politics I guess, but publicly stating such things, is just stupid

You should also read about the hypocrisy of the democrats. I reckon that the silent majority knows this and the polls do not represent what they might mark on the ballot.

Also, after the beginning of the riots, what does everyone reckon on a Bernie candidacy instead of Biden? Bernie might have stepped down early hehehe.

I mean a little another thing. In 2016 Trump was more like populist and many people from middle class were afraid to vote for him. Now they see what ways of economic and politic Trump choose (conflict with China, decreasing of taxes and so on) and maybe will vote for him.

And yeah, about "great" i was a little incorrect. Better word for it is "enough chances". My bad.

the clinton odds are just a reflection of how punters have bet, not how betfair sees the chances per se.

biden 55%, trump 39% now. i suspect there will be a pullback in this trend, and that you can get better odds between now and november certainly---if biden is who you like. it won't keep moving in a straight line like this. if trump plunges to 3-3.33 in the short term i'm gonna lay a bet on him as a medium term trade, with the intention of betting on biden when punter sentiment reverses again.

trump is a lot more charismatic (and better functioning cognitively) than biden. when we get into the heat of election season, debates, etc this is gonna be reflected in the odds more. the biden campaign has been run well IMO but they've been able to rely on effective ads and press releases and they are riding favorably on the news cycle, which will inevitably reverse. eventually biden will need to become more of a public figure, longer speeches, 3+ debates---lots of chances to fuck up in the eyes of the public. as i mentioned above, the absentee voting issue being litigated in several states could have a major effect too, and democrats are not guaranteed to prevail.

with so many huge variables heading into this, i'd rather just bet against confident punters on both sides. nobody should be that confident. this is a coin flip.

Odds are changing very fast. Perhaps it is time to make a bet in favor of Biden, before it is too late. I should have done this at least one month ago, when the bookies were favoring Trump to win the re-election. BTW, I checked the link and I was surprised that they have given 1% chance for Hillary to win the POTUS 2020 elections. Now it is : Biden - 55%, Trump - 40%, Hillary - 1%.

despite all the shit talking about biden, i believe he is a more electable candidate than hilary was. i also think democrats are significantly more mobilized in 2020 than 2016, with a majority of democrats in exit polls saying their top priority isn't electing anyone in particular---it's defeating trump. that's exactly the kinda atmosphere democrats need to keep cultivating.

they should also be pushing hard for absentee voting, to prevent losing these mobilized voters who don't wanna show up to polls because of the coronavirus. there is some truth to this IMO:


unlike 2016, democrats seem keenly aware of the danger of not voting this time around.

most presidents don't get reelected with approval ratings this low---not that i would write off trump yet, but i don't see "great" chances for winning here. i see a very hotly contested election. a coin flip, which is why i am not interested in betting on either biden or trump unless either gets priced above 3 to win.