Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 19. (Read 6240 times)

The average job approval ratings for the USA presidents is 53 that is from the year 1938 to 2020. The approval rating under 30 does not look possible. The minimum i see is by George Bush at 37. Will trump rating will fall below this ?

If biden go out from electoral race, will this mean that all bids on him will be considered as lost, eh? I checked odds on him, and it doesn't looks like something changed too much - https://bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker (this is just one example)

I think that Trump has hit the rock bottom and he will slowly recover in the next 2-3 months. Today I noticed a piece of news, which is very encouraging for Trump:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/jobs-report-june-2020.html


This is just tectonic/monumental level news for Trump. So many jobs created in such a short period of time, would be a huge boost for him.

Technically you don't have Biden at 60%, but the field, which makes the 1.667 (sorry, I always calculate in decimal odds ) good, since Betfair has 1.71 for Biden and you have lower commission from all I know. The Field then covers any medical issues for Biden - but also for Trump, because he can get sick as well, so if I was to bet against Trump, I would probably prefer your odds.

But those odds for Trump are shitty with 2.23 compared to Betfairs 2.84 right now, even with commission advantage.

Degens Exchange has Trump at 44% and Biden at 60% - https://degens.com/?sport=Politics

it's possible, but pretty extreme yes. the bottom in december 2018/january 2019 was 29%. it's hard to imagine much lower than that.

anything between 3.33-4 would be a really juicy place to get a bet in backing trump. i'm checking the odds a couple times a day now, since i don't think the opportunity will last long. betfair had him down to 33% a couple days ago but he has since bounced to 35%.

ignoring trump, biden's chances have slightly fallen, probably because of the improving odds on kamala harris. it's being widely speculated now that she will be his VP running mate. since a brokered DNC is not really possible anymore, that would make her pretty much the only possible democratic nominee besides biden---if he succumbs to medical problems or something.

When it starts to veer into exaggeration then I go back to presuming Trump just lucks his way to a win, the returning candidate has the advantage.   The only real certain guidance is in the numbers, as in business revenue and job prospects and anything like that, the words and opinions are secondary evidence to speculate on a win or a loss.   Too many people speak the story they wish was true or will be true so long as they repeat it they hope to make it so but theres equally a sentiment to ignore bias and news which favours a negative narrative against the president.  
   Does Biden benefit from being a vice president returning to the race, really doesn't feel much like that.   I'm trying to think of the last VP who returned to win the top job for himself, all I can think of is the guy who lost to Bush, Gore and it was very close so maybe theres something in that.   Biden needs some killer speech to really make ground in voter numbers.

Lol. The lowest rating since last elections. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Now it's getting really interesting. I thought this is the bottom (+\- few percents). There can't be under 30 %, i can't believe in something like that.

this is pretty damaging stuff:


trump is still get slaughtered in the media, biden is exuding confidence, the coronavirus is worsening with economic fears looming.

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

It is getting even more difficult for Trump nowadays. Questions are being raised about the relationship between Putin and Trump, after it was proved that Russia paid bounty to the Taliban, in return for the assassination of American troops. Also, there are new revelations which claim that he holds a lot of contempt to female leaders such as Angela Merkel. It is going to get really dirty.. during the next few months. 

Trump mentioned something strange and this might be an indecipherable statement about the military industrial complex during his speech in Tulsa. Is he warning everyone similar to Dwight Eisenhower or is Trump a friend of them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNecDwMY_0w

^^^ Even now, the GOP is having only a wafer thin majority in the Senate. Democrats are having a majority in House and they are likely to maintain that for the next few years. Now let's talk about this years Senate elections. As per the latest opinion polls, Democrats are ahead in crucial states such as Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa. Even if they fall short of majority by one or two seats, they can make that up by getting help from RINOs such as Lisa Murkowski. So by all probability, in three months time there will be a Democrat president, with Democrat majority in Senate and the House.

 The main talking point these days has been about US Presidential elections. However what people are forgetting that November 2020 will also be the month where a lot of Senate elections are taking place as well. Senate elections are a lot more important than Presidential elections actually, you know why? Because if you hold the house and if you hold the senate that means you do not need the president to be in your party at all, you can still veto whatever you want.

 Right now democrats are in a big progressive movement, it all started with the "sisterhood" of 5 minority women to be elected usually headed by AOC and right now its spreading towards everywhere, thats congress obviously but it still created this feeling of "in places we know republicans will lose like New York, we can put as progressive as we want and still not lose". This put forward Jamaal Bowman type of progressive candidates with no holding back on words to come forward and beat long time incumbent opponents in democratic party since they knew that the primary would basically be the election as well.

 Now for the senate they are going against Mitch Mcconnell who is the majority leader and if they somehow manage to win just 3 seats on the senate they are going to have the majority and they put forward Charles Booker who is an open supporter of BLM movement and the protests going around in the country. A candidate that supports green new deal, a candidate that supports universal healthcare and a candidate who is black in Kentucky which is a tough thing to be. He managed to beat ex-marine Amy McGrath who had all the support from the corporate democrats but Booker managed to still beat her. Which means he will go against Mitch in the November elections.

 I think what matters most for Democrats that they know they need to elect Biden so that they could get rid of Trump but they also realized 2 years ago in 2018 elections that unless they manage to get the majority in the senate, they will not be able to get anything done, senate will stop all works and try to undermine everything Biden would do. So not only they need  to elect Biden but they also need to take that majority from senate, remove Mitch from Kentucky senate and rule the three big branch all together. If they have the congress (which they do) and win the senate and win the presidency, that means democrats will be able to do whatever they want.

texas is not a swing state---i'm not sure what chances biden realistically has there. while the texas republican-democrat margin in the 2016 election was the smallest in decades, it was still sizable. this will be hard to overcome:


+1

So in those terms you are saying it might be most profitable to lay the bet for Trump winning and take the profits if he does not, rather then attempt to bet for Biden exactly.     Does everyone have access to that possibility, I think I've done this a long time ago with some instructions on a forum but I would have to speak to someone I know.

Of course this is possible even within the same bookmaker Pre-match it's a bit harder to achieve, because the markets move slow, but in-play you can do it all the time.

Look at these odds:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college

In this post, you can read that "The Field" had 2.04 in the past:


Now you put 53% of your stake on the 2.04 and 47% of your stake on the 2.30 and you have 8.11% surebet (trading/arbitrage profit). You can also get unlucky of course and the odds don't move in your favour - thats the risky part about trading/arbitrage Bookmakers don't like it of course, but they kick out winning players anyway, no matter if you do arbitrage or not. Doing arbitrage at traditional bookmakers is a bit meh though, since you pay the house edge for every bet. Exchanges like Betfair are better suited, because you just pay a commission on your net profit.

---

Another example would be a football match; inplay. You bet on team A to win for odds of 2.00. The next second they score the lead. You can now play X2 for 3.00 et voila, you have a sure profit, no matter what is FT result. Bookmakers even urge you to take sure profit with offering a "cashout option" more and more (it's value/valuable for them, if you use it, thats why they offer it).

Well, I didn't mean it that way

Indeed, you can use multiple accounts for this, but of what advantage will they be to you? The arbitrage opportunity can be purposefully and profitably exploited between two different bookies, no doubt about that. But the question is whether arbitrage is possible within the same bookmaker (which I doubt)? As I understand it, the odds are adjusted in such a way that the bookie is always earning something, no matter who actually wins. This, more or less, leaves no room for and essentially rules out internal arbitrage, or fork as you call it (read, they are not fools)

Paying attention to that fact that you're from Eastern Europe too (as i am) i think you understand pretty well what does it mean term "fork" in booking. And yeah, books banning for such things if they find that someone doing that. Of course, from one account you can't do fork, because you will be wiped away immediately. Another account and so on used for such things.

Look Biden is working really hard towards Texas and if he could get it, that means it is all over. Last elections there was just 3 states where 70k people could have voted for Hillary and the whole election would have changed, we are talking about 150 million people voting and 70k people switching sides changes everything. This time around Biden will try to get all those states and honestly Trump looks like he may lose those states instead because he has been going horrible since this pandemic started.

However if Biden gets Texas it is all over, it would not be just a loss but it would be a record breaking difference as well, not only Biden will reach to 270 but he would probably go over 320 in that case. I hope that it happens, Texas has been red for way too long and getting Texas would change so much for democrats.

Anything can happen in these USA Elections