Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 23. (Read 6260 times)

Trump doesn't look a good bet right now (maybe a good trade though), but tbh everything falls into place for Biden at the moment Trump has his back against the wall, but as fast as things turned around, they can make a U-turn again and go in the other direction. I am not convinced, that it will be a 1.01 train for Biden from here on, that would be too easy. The US is probably at the lowest point right now economy-wise and with civil unrest. I already said at 1.97, that I found Biden too low, now he is 1.89 and you will probably see me writing here again at 1.70, but I still think Trump will get re-elected. You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

Just imagine the odds, if the Democrats had a proper candidate, 1.40 maybe ?!

I agree with most of your points, but not with Trump being the safest bet. I had posted in this thread a few weeks back. Trump needs to win a majority of the swing states and he seems to be trailing badly in almost all of them. Only FL is giving him any hope. He is facing disaster in states such as AZ, NH, MI, MN, VA, PA.etc. For me, Biden seems to be the front runner right now and IMO he is being under-rated by the bookies.

If anything is to be said on that concerning the election of US and your post in my view, I would say do we really know if the politics of covid-19 was about the election? In trying to spoil the chances of Trump.
US was the worst hit but if it was targeted as a deliberate act is yet to be determined.

Same here. I don't understand why the Democratic Party is always pushing not their best candidates. Like with  Hillary Clinton 4 years ago was just unlikeable as a politician. It wasn't about her gender, it was all about her strategy to be viewed as good person, trying to change things. But in the end she was lying and just another politician. Voters want someone to relate to and not someone who is trying to hard.
They are doing the same with Biden now, he is just too old and doesn't come across as very likeable. I think the democratic party needs to reform its self. Get a younger candidate where people actually can relate to.

How much are you guys betting on the election? Trump seems like the safest bet.

LOL.. They want to disband the police force? There can't be anything more lunatic than this. A country such as the United States won't be able to function without the police force. This is pure insanity.

From what I have seen, the pandemic is affecting the blue states more than the red states. Even in the red states, the impact is being felt more on counties where the African-Americans, Hispanics and Amerindians make up substantial portion of the population. A few examples are Hancock County (GA) with 3.5 deaths per 1,000 people and McKinley (NM) with 2 deaths per 1,000.

Here the issue will be: How much does coronavirus will affect the next presidential election.

Some people will understand the virus came from another country and was out of the govs hands, but a lot of them are not agreeing with how does the gov handles the problem because of numbers talks by themself. And to be the country with the biggest number of deads means that they do it something wrong.

No one was ready for a pandemic, and not all the govs had the right people to handle it.

@bbc.reporter things are not looking good for Trump right now, but it’s too early to conclude that he’ll loose the upcoming US presidential elections. Further I believe that the media is confusing US citizens for e.g. see this a Forbes article which claims that Trump can loose the state of Arkansas, and then later on the same article says that he has lead of a 2% so he may not loose the state. Lastly I believe that Trump will win the elections because Republicans are yet united behind him, and on the other hand the Democratic Party is yet struggling to unite behind Biden.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/06/14/could-trump-lose-arkansas-poll-shows-dead-heat-but-experts-are-skeptical/#182e8a4c9259

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-12/republican-officials-fear-trump

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/434971-pollster-says-its-not-looking-good-for-trump-ahead-of-2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/us/politics/democratic-party-unity-primary.html

@Vishnu.Reang. Also, what states have the highest cases of the coronavirus and the highest projected cases of the virus on November? Blue states or red states?

The democrats also want to defund the police. Minneapolis has begun doing this. What would be its effect on independent voters?

I am not very excited with the performance from Biden so far. He has failed to energize the core voteblock of the Democrat Party. I hope he may get some boost, once he announce the VP candidate. But he needs to be more active. And one thing we need to analyze is the impact the COVID 19 pandemic can have on the voter turnout for the 2020 elections. I am afraid that it is going to affect the voter turnout in inner city areas. If that happens, then Biden would be in trouble.

I cannot agree. I reckon that what might work for Donald Trump might be a disastrous blunder for the campaign of Joe Biden.

the issue is that a strong majority of americans disagree with trump's handling of the protests and his position on police reform. he is handing biden the police/racism issue on a silver platter and showing he is out of touch with most americans. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/06/09/74-of-americans-support-george-floyd-protests-majority-disapprove-of-trumps-handling/#44b651e8557c

i see him alienating lots of people---even republicans are split, with 53% supporting the protests---so if he keeps doubling down on his unpopular opinions, he better hope the protests lose steam and everybody forgets about them real soon. he has done more than enough to keep his core base happy; when is he gonna consider damage control? at this point he is just energizing non-voters to vote against him and also alienating centrists, adding fuel to the fire.

odds at 53-41, biden advantage. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

if trump starts being priced below 30% to win then i start becoming interested in the trump bet. i love me a good underdog.

 Biden is doing the same mistake Hillary is doing though. I mean sure he does write better responses on twitter (probably a team obviously) but at the same time he is not going around the country trying to get votes. Lets say that he is not doing that because he has to deal with corona virus being spread and thats why he can't go around the whole nation, what about live television every night? I mean I am %99 sure there must be some news channel who would love to have him on tv, thats how you get voters, you need to have people who hate you so that there will be people who would defend you. Biden has to be on TV every single night without a break, from today to election day. Thats the only matter to get good PR and votes in this pandemic period.

2016 Hillary thing was because nobody was giving Trump a chance, it was actually quite unlikely that he would become nominee for the republican party neither when he first started out, dude was just seen as nobody, he went around and talked to everyone everywhere, that is how he won the nomination and also the presidential race as well. He was capable of amazing social media and online presence as well with tens of millions of dollars all going towards exact and precise marketing with tens of thousands of data points so he advertise to people depending on what they want to hear.

This year is a bit different, now he is out of the shadows and everyone knows him, he is no longer the under dog, he is the president and he had 4 years to prove himself, now Biden is from Obama times and people may want to go back to that and get that vote.

I still think it would make more sense for CNN to fake polls and approval ratings pro Trump - or at least that is what I would do, if I was to support Biden. I am thinking about those people who are not that eager to go voting, but lean (strongly) towards one of the candidates. If I lean towards Biden and see him being 60% favourite, I might say to myself, well, he will win anyway, so I don't need to give my vote. If I lean towards Trump and see him trailing, I might feel the urge to actually give my vote to him.

This only works until a certain threshold of course, because at some point you will have discouraged the underdog voters; maybe they are trying to do that


The 2016 election was so weird, I have never seen polls and markets being so wrong when it comes to an election anywhere in the world. Normally the odds are pretty good and I trust them way more than any polls. If you actually put your hard earned money on something, this has way more weight, than just participating in a poll, which costs you nothing and you can just lie without consequences.

Polls and betting odds always go hand in hand more or less of course, but the odds reflect an all-in-one mix of all information, polls, bias etc. In 2016 the matrix was way off and it sill amazes me until today tbh. But when the overwhelming majority is placing their bets on low-ish odds based on public opionion and polls, even the sharps have a hard time moving the market. But they made good money I think.

That approval rating is only from CNN. CNN and the other mainstream media hate Trump from the beginning of his first campaign.

The other Trump approval ratings are more than 40%.

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_approval_rating


The sportsbooks and the pollsters had Hillary more as a certainty on 2016 than Biden for 2020.

Supporting protest against cops and racism doesn't mean supporting anti Trump campaign. But yeah, you're definitely right about young people, which will be against Trump. Their problem was that they mostly avoided election day, but maybe if online voting will appear, they will change everything to Biden. But i'm still betting on Trump.

i agree that it's too early to read too much into anything at this point, but i think trump is setting himself up for political disaster by 1. banking too much on a fast economic recovery while delaying relief measures and 2. writing off the protests wholesale and showering praise on police, which simply disagrees with the majority of american opinion. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/500867-poll-majority-sympathetic-to-protesters-disapprove-of-trumps-response

i just get this impression that he's gonna keep doubling down on unpopular opinions/policies instead of listening to public opinion.


interesting speculation. i'm leaning towards kamala getting on the ticket too.


it's mostly non-black people who are out protesting btw. 60-70% of americans sympathize with the protests depending on which poll you look at.

the big fear for trump and republicans is that younger voters will turn out in higher numbers now (and in general that turnout will be high). voter registration groups are seeing lots of engagement since the protests began and biden is rightly targeting younger voters in his ads. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/politics/voter-registration-protests/index.html

This is not a correct argument. POTUS elections are decided on the basis of electoral college votes and not total votes. And these electoral college votes are assigned on the basis of population. So ideally there should not be any major deviation from the electoral college votes and total votes.

It's a fact that Hillary won more votes in 2016. But then, the population of deep blue states is much higher than that of deep red states, and we can assume that a lot of Republicans in deep blue states such as CA and NY never cared to vote.

Now i find that many people from who i know in USA that was against Trump at first, now is for him. Yep, with some qualifications, but they satisfied about tax changes, politics and so on.

And yeah, my theory is based on what happened to Bernie Sanders.

Your theory is a bit surprising since Trump didn't win his last election because of a majority of votes for him but only because of a majority of states.
Hillary Clinton beat him by three million votes.