Topic: US Presidential Election 2020 - page 25. (Read 6260 times)

his recent attempts at appealing to christian voters were very poorly received, with religious leaders---including the incredibly influential televangelist pat robertson---publicly speaking out against him. that dude has a massive conservative christian audience.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/politics/pat-robertson-donald-trump/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/trump-bible-churches-protests/index.html

opinions of trump among religious conservatives were already declining. it's looking worse by the day.

re the law & order angle, maybe under normal circumstances it would help him, but on top of his terrible optics around race relations i believe underneath the surface of these protests there is deep and widespread economic distress underlying. as i've said before, trump is taking a massive political gamble by choosing now to spearhead an austerity movement. his administration is strongly pushing back against economic relief measures, they are cutting food stamp benefits, etc despite the fact that so much of his core voter base is poor and likely to be struggling because of the pandemic. the optics are just terrible re pretty much everything he is doing right now.

i do expect that pendulum of public opinion to swing back but he should seriously consider going into damage control mode instead of being ultra polarizing and inflammatory. he is just being crucified by public opinion on both sides of the aisle. religious conservatives =/= trump-ites and he needs to stop taking them for granted.


yup and tbh i'm wondering how long biden can keep that up. he has indicated plans to become much more involved (finally leaving his house, delivering lengthier speeches, etc)---lots of chances to massively screw up ahead of the DNC in august.

These looting of shops and destroying property has caused a shift from the primary issue. People are not discussing anymore about the brutality of police on black Americans, they are more concer about the rioting. If Trump is able to stop the rioting it will boost his rating I guess.

51-42 now, in favor of Biden. The odds seems to be getting better for Biden with every passing day. I need to change my previous assessment about the rioting. As of now, it looks like it may not give any advantage for Trump.

All that said, I was stunned by a series of opinion polls from the left-leaning CNBC. They are saying that Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania (50-46), and that too by a big margin. This is like a must-win state for Biden. If he losses PA, then he needs to win FL. The same poll says that both Trump and Biden are tied in Wisconsin (45-45) and a right-leaning FOX News poll released on the same day showed Trump trailing Wisconsin by 9 points.

CNBC poll: https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-6
Fox News poll: https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf

I am not sure what is going on now, one thing is sure, it is not the best time to be a president, first with the pandemic and now with all the protest across America and now the riots. What ever may be the situation things are getting violent and some are taking advantage of the situation looting shops and destroying property and these are not a good to show for Trump to get reelected. Before these situation i though Trump would win but now i am not that confident.

He still is the president I'm sure he had already managed to make more people tie with him for re-election. He made a lot of enemies who are very vocal about their negative look toward him but building walls I guess are more important for anyone out there. This riot and pandemic are the worse to face being a president but he seems to have handled it good already.  The fight isn't over but almost sure he still will win.

 He is not really a good business man, he has bankrupted more companies than anyone I have ever seen, he literally bankrupted a casino, a casino! They are literally money printing machines. But he took out loans at a rate that was surreal just to open it and when he couldn't pay the loans back because of the huge interest rates that he literally agreed while getting the loan, he closed the casino down. He has a million different companies that he bankrupted. The only reason why he is seen as a "businessman" is the simple fact that when you owe the bank 100 dollars its your problem, when you owe them 100 million dollars its their problem. So banks kept bailing him out and in the end just cut ties, thats when he started to take out loans from banks that got caught laundering money for Russians.

 Calculate all of this and tell me how it looks, because to me it looks as shady as it gets.

The reason why Biden is getting a bigger chance to win right now from the bookmakers is literally the riots. They are thinking if people who rioted against the police brutality all go out to vote that would mean the end of Trump. But, do you know what is the biggest issue in all of USA?

The fact that there is a HUGE amount of people who do not vote, they are regular people like you and me, they do riot as well, they do get into fights, they do say bad things about Trump too, but they do not want to vote for Hillary or Biden for that matter neither. That is why usually polls and bookmakers are having big swings, I mean sure they could be right about Biden winning, after all there is two candidates and one will win, but that doesn't change the fact that the results swing so much from one side to another, and that is the people who do not want to vote.

Exactly, same as Brexit a few months before that. Trump is hateful and hated right now,,, and he is probably a bit unlucky to have this riot blow up during his tenure but in the end he has a very good campaign manager. He knows who to win votes from, and he will do whatever it takes to win those votes. He is a businessman after all.

will be interesting, do not know how they think that Biden has advantage at the moment, but Trump is trying to politicize all decisions at the moment to increase his re-election chances

Yep, it's amazing and I am not sure, what is the main driving factor here in the last days, because I have a hard time imagining it's "just" the protests/riots. Those riots and looting I would even have thought to play into the hands of Trump tbh.
I think it's the fact, that Biden came out of his cave and is more present in the media now - showing up healthy and with some fighting spirit, after having been invisible for ages. But odds of 1.97 look a bit short to me (overreaction)


This was a bit expected unfortunately. He is trading at above 200 now, indicating a probability of less then 0.5%, which I find a tad too low then again. I cut my losses a bit with laying him at 85, but will maybe jump in again at 250-ish (to make this a complete disaster ).

i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch. if you like trump in november, bookies are giving you better and better odds every day.

when i started tracking this, it was 49-42 trump. now it's 51-43 biden.
https://odds.watch/joe-biden-2020
https://odds.watch/trump-2020

unfortunately for the cuomo bet, momentum seems to be coalescing around biden.

There are rumors on the internet that there might be a foreign government and leftists that is supporting a group called Antifa to organize riots across America.

I am very certain that the riots will end before November and the truth or the storyboard of a truth will be exposed. If there is some evidence or there appears to be evidence that Antifa was really funded by the leftists, I reckon the independent voters, who decides the winner, would be convinced to move right towards Trump because they want security and stability first before leftist political agendas.

Back then, the polls and the betting sites under-estimated Trump. And this time they are doing just the opposite. The COVID 19 pandemic has created an extra-ordinary situation. One-fifth of the adult population is without jobs. And the death of George Floyd made things even worse for Trump. Still, 5 months remaining for the elections, and a lot can change.

I vote by mail all the time if I can just because its very easy to get distracted on that particular day.   I've had jobs where I work till 9pm all hours low pay and going to vote would add 2 hours to my day so I didnt but thats a terrible choice and way to decide 4 years of power and democracy by who has the luxury of free time and transport on that particular day.   So I disagree with restriction, they could easily allow anyone whose submitted taxes in previous years and lots of qualifying ways people already interact with government.

The standing advantage is always going to be with a returning president but the odds remain good for an upset bet win on many fronts I think.

 Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won. This time around its the reverse though, last time around it was Trump that had to claw back and win it, this time its Biden's chance to do the same while all Trump has to do is not to lose more votes, he already won, he is the president, he needs to do exactly what he did last time to win, so his job is to not lose instead of winning. Biden has a big advantage because when you are the sitting president everything you do is under media eye, but when you are a nominee your regular everyday stuff doesn't get attention, your presidency related stuff gets the only attention, you can't make national trouble when a nominee because you don't have that power.

maybe so in other countries. i think you are underestimating attitudes about that in the USA, and also the amount of "white guilt" among liberal voters. i feel that anyone falling along pro/anti-law & order or racism lines was polarized by trump a long, long time ago.

the big risk for trump is that voters will actually come out in november and the more inflammatory his actions are, the more likely a big turnout becomes. the bigger the turnout, the worse trump's chances are. that's generally true for republicans, which is why they fight so hard against vote-by-mail or anything that will make it easier to vote.

biden, as expected, is capitalizing on the situation:


odds are up for biden again. bookies say 45% trump, 48% biden.

I don't know about the situation in the United States. But here in India, the polling percentage for this group is very low. Because a large part of them are studying in universities and colleges away from where they are registered as voters. And there is a large part who hasn't completed voter registration. And here in India, absentee voting is not allowed for anyone other than government employees.

Frankly, I always thought that this kind of thing could happen since the day Trump was elected. In countries where very different races live together like the USA, political balance is very important. However, the fact that this happened shortly before the election poses a question mark in the minds.

I never believed in conspiracy theories. However, the arrival of some disturbing news about the "I can't breathe" protest from Russia is also suspicious.

The US presidential elections will be more intriguing than ever, and will also be a choice that can steer human history. I think the most important indicator of this is the fact that the events taking place in the USA find a response especially in many countries. Images of a popular riot, at least as important as the US, were seen on news televisions in Brazil.

This riots will do one interesting thing: they will polarize the american society. Some people will be strongly for Trump, another will be against him at any costs. And some people, which would stay at home under normal circumstances, after such things will go to vote for one of candidate.

And also, there enough examples how dictators won with help of such riots. Average people love "strong hand", so if Trump will use military, his real rating will increase.

I speculate the riots all across America are moving the odds.

This might be a stupid hypothesis hehe, however, this might place Trump in a very desperate situation that might cause him to declare full war vs China before November instead of using the pandemic only as a leverage to secure business advantages.