Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32929. (Read 26610377 times)

Hold me to this but first I must come clean (as all of us should).

I am in fiat, so my bias is bear (short to mid term bear). Long term is Über Bullish.

Trying to be as neutral as possible, what I see happening is a few HUGE players driving the price up and waiting for bids to fill so they can profit and let the correction continue.
I don't think we can argue the huge players involved. Remove them and we are not where we are. Is that wrong to say? They are a part of the market in a sense, no? Perhaps I am wrong.

psychologically - Same old, the bears see bearish charts, they search for them and find them. The bulls do likewise. (I see both, though the short/mid term still seems bearish, chart wise). I am really trying to be neutral but that is almost a mutually exclusive thing in general, especially when you believe in BTC as I do. Caught between a rock and a hard place. I understand to a point the dire situation of the global monetary situation. But I also know the miracle of a temporary bridge they have been able to sustain and it is more than I imagined. "Just print more".  For example, do you know the Federal Reserve loaned the EU 2.3 + trillion last year? Hardly anyone knows that and fewer know that is illegal, but they did it via overnight swaps. Avoiding laws, much like their gold "leasing" did. So, I am trying to increase my BTC position, all the while knowing the global financial situation is like a rope bridge across a burning valley and the fire is starting to touch... ouch. I think that is fairly accurate. And some of the players benefit from the bridge burning, go figure.

Hope that wasn't too long. But we (globally) are in a mess that most have no clue about. And here we are in BTC trying to save the few pennies the "elite" have allowed us to have. Dire, no. Freedom is coming, but the in between is going to be interesting. Long story short, I'm not sure it matters, but it certainly is a nice distraction. 

IAS

My guess: we will break the downward channel, but we won't go much higher.

I didn't claim that this channel is sustainable broken nor draw any conclusions, just wanted to point out, that Bitstamp already went through for a shorter time.

The broader picture looks like a falling wedge for me (connect 79, 65) and we didn't break out yet.

What do the charts tell you and what does a general assessment of the market psychology tell you IAS?

A valid point. But what about:
the downtrend line not being violated.
the back to back candle reversal patterns?

I'm not saying I know, but it certainly is interesting...

I call it "phase of consolidation after +55 % change of value"..

It's called false breakout. It seems the bears got what the bulls where so desperately hoping for 2 weeks ago.

Nah, I wouldn't call that breaking it. I'm looking for where it closes and I think that is pretty accepted. Even then, I'd look for 3 days of that unless it is taking off.

Bitstamp at least broke it, though not sustainable till now.

A link to where? The Redditor pelle (http://www.reddit.com/user/pelle) seems to be the guy who runs Kipochi. You can check out the comments on Kipochi launches first Bitcoin wallet in Africa with M-Pesa integration and look for posts from pelle.

Well yes, it has but it still appears we haven't broken (closed above) the downtrend. That is really what I am looking for and not just one day, but 3 or so...
Not sure where to draw the lines from but either way, we are still below the downtrend.
You could also draw a channel 30 bucks or so below the shown line...

Also, we could have said things were bullish on any of the moves up to hit the downtrend line (which wasn't exactly a line at it's start. 

hmm do you have a link? if thats true then this kipochi company might be fraudulent as well...

Abandon, the market (Mrs Market) has been bullish for 7 days already (since 6 July).

What will happen or will not happen today has nothing to do with her being bullish or not.

I should have looked into it further.

If the market breaks out above, the market will be bullish.

I tried them all when I was a newbie trader.

Vice names the source by the way.



I know where you're going. It's nothing more than a upcoming Bitcoin/M-PESA exchange and has yet to prove it's acceptance and adoption. After reading some posts from the guy who runs Kipochi, I'm a bit more positive though. Seems he has some contacts and he is going to run mobile phone support in Kenya and wants to expand to Tanzania and others next. But well, yeah.. let's see. The news is kinda overrated now, but has potential.

Edit:

This is the guy:

http://www.reddit.com/user/pelle