yes sir, fundamentals are strong!!
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32932. (Read 26467520 times)
June 17, 2013, 06:31:24 PM
Bitcoin fundamentals:
yes sir, fundamentals are strong!!
yes sir, fundamentals are strong!!
June 17, 2013, 06:23:10 PM
Yeah, back to the TA debate !!
BTW I am a Belieber in its value as part of a trading strategy. Like you say, its about cutting losses and running winners ... TA often gives a good indicator of entry point but not necessarily direction. Other times it gives a good indicator of future direction but the timing is the risk.
Its one of many tools to have in your Bitbelt
If you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ... thats the trap
BTW I am a Belieber in its value as part of a trading strategy. Like you say, its about cutting losses and running winners ... TA often gives a good indicator of entry point but not necessarily direction. Other times it gives a good indicator of future direction but the timing is the risk.
Its one of many tools to have in your Bitbelt
If you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ... thats the trap
TA tells me btc=$39 ... FA tells me btc=$300,000 USD ... current price $100
1) using TA sell ALL ( 2.5 times more ... in zero sum game )
2) using FA keep ALL ( 3000 times more .. no(almost zero) risk )
"The fundamentals are sound." —Famous last words of every Wall Street cheerleader in history
June 17, 2013, 06:20:59 PM
Yeah, back to the TA debate !!
BTW I am a Belieber in its value as part of a trading strategy. Like you say, its about cutting losses and running winners ... TA often gives a good indicator of entry point but not necessarily direction. Other times it gives a good indicator of future direction but the timing is the risk.
Its one of many tools to have in your Bitbelt
If you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ... thats the trap
BTW I am a Belieber in its value as part of a trading strategy. Like you say, its about cutting losses and running winners ... TA often gives a good indicator of entry point but not necessarily direction. Other times it gives a good indicator of future direction but the timing is the risk.
Its one of many tools to have in your Bitbelt
If you only have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail ... thats the trap
TA tells me btc=$39 ... FA tells me btc=$300,000 USD ... current price $100
1) using TA sell ALL ( 2.5 times more ... in zero sum game )
2) using FA keep ALL ( 3000 times more .. no(almost zero) risk )
June 17, 2013, 06:10:41 PM
If we break above 104/105 then maybe I get back in. But right now something just doesn't feel right.
The order book / market depth is looking so much better the last few days and I don't trust it. For sure it is loaded up below the current price, but why isn't it moving up if there is so much there?
Watching smaller buys go through and a rising price followed by dumps of coins again and again (that aren't showing up in the market depth as they are market buys (I got that right?))
doesn't feel right with me.
Another thing - Looking at the sales that went through before as a bunch of sales up to 100 shares (were 2 of those) and checking the times, they were all within 2 seconds of each other = same seller?
Totaled around 500 - 600, which isn't much but it did knock things or slow things down again.
Anything can happen, it can be a bear or bull trap - a bit of evidence for both. We just have to pull our resources together and find out.
The order book / market depth is looking so much better the last few days and I don't trust it. For sure it is loaded up below the current price, but why isn't it moving up if there is so much there?
Watching smaller buys go through and a rising price followed by dumps of coins again and again (that aren't showing up in the market depth as they are market buys (I got that right?))
doesn't feel right with me.
Another thing - Looking at the sales that went through before as a bunch of sales up to 100 shares (were 2 of those) and checking the times, they were all within 2 seconds of each other = same seller?
Totaled around 500 - 600, which isn't much but it did knock things or slow things down again.
Anything can happen, it can be a bear or bull trap - a bit of evidence for both. We just have to pull our resources together and find out.
June 17, 2013, 06:06:40 PM
Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...
Yes, Bitstamp uses Unicredit in Slovenia, so any fiat is at the mercy of the Slovenian banking system. I don't have any ref's at hand, but if you do a bit of googling you will see that Slovenia has been claiming they don't need a bail-out (as all good politicians say right up until they do
) and other's say they are the next domino to fall. I have no idea, but it was one of the reasons that I moved my cash off the exchange when I turned medium term bear. Not that I trust the UK banking system, but I am pretty sure Slovenia will fall before it ! So for now I can play with BTC on Plus500 and when the price is right I can buy here to track price , transfer fiat over there and buy BTC. Also instant and free to deposit fiat. Works for now ...
Thanks and yes I did a search. WOW! I should have checked sooner. But, the good news is that they just got a lot of cash to inject into the system to help the banks out. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-16/mercator-sale-helps-stabilize-slovenian-banks-amid-fiscal-crisis That should go a while. But I have to come up with a better plan. Bitcoin.de doesn't have a bank so trades take like 2 or 3 days to finalize and people sometimes won't even send the money should BTC tank after the sale. So, don't sell during a downmove there.
Bitstamp, like Gox, doesn't cope well with lots of people trying to move cash at the same time (not as bad, but definitely lags a few days). Whatever you do, make sure you are fully verified wherever you trade and have tested their system for withdrawing your cash. I put cash into Plus500 and then pulled it all out to see what would happen. It was fine the first time, but the next time they wanted extra verification, which I have done now. Make sure all of that is in place wherever you are trading. If there is ever a rush for the exits, you need to know that there will be no extra delays for paperwork.
I am pretty sure that you already know this ... just saying for the benefit of anyone who does not.
Thanks again, and no I didn't know that! My plan anyway (and perhaps not the smartest thing to do right now) as if things get rough with the banking system, I would just buy Bitcoins and get them out of there faster than you can say "transfer via SEPA". I would rather not even chance something going wrong with during the SEPA if there is a banking problem.
I should do the verification if need be just for a regular transfer out (but I don't see me doing a non BTC transfer out). I didn't notice the verification on their site though, just a form you fill in from within your Bitstamp account with your Bank account details. (Perhaps the verification happens after that, as you alluded to them asking you for extra verification - which is a great idea, better to do that then get robbed.)
I hope this was useful to anyone watching...
June 17, 2013, 06:00:35 PM
June 17, 2013, 05:53:09 PM
Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...
Yes, Bitstamp uses Unicredit in Slovenia, so any fiat is at the mercy of the Slovenian banking system. I don't have any ref's at hand, but if you do a bit of googling you will see that Slovenia has been claiming they don't need a bail-out (as all good politicians say right up until they do
) and other's say they are the next domino to fall. I have no idea, but it was one of the reasons that I moved my cash off the exchange when I turned medium term bear. Not that I trust the UK banking system, but I am pretty sure Slovenia will fall before it ! So for now I can play with BTC on Plus500 and when the price is right I can buy here to track price , transfer fiat over there and buy BTC. Also instant and free to deposit fiat. Works for now ...
Thanks and yes I did a search. WOW! I should have checked sooner. But, the good news is that they just got a lot of cash to inject into the system to help the banks out. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-16/mercator-sale-helps-stabilize-slovenian-banks-amid-fiscal-crisis That should go a while. But I have to come up with a better plan. Bitcoin.de doesn't have a bank so trades take like 2 or 3 days to finalize and people sometimes won't even send the money should BTC tank after the sale. So, don't sell during a downmove there.
ECB will hold this bank alive , otherwise it'll hit Italy, Austria and most of Eastern Europe
I do not think it's a risk with this bank for now
June 17, 2013, 05:44:54 PM
Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...
Yes, Bitstamp uses Unicredit in Slovenia, so any fiat is at the mercy of the Slovenian banking system. I don't have any ref's at hand, but if you do a bit of googling you will see that Slovenia has been claiming they don't need a bail-out (as all good politicians say right up until they do
) and other's say they are the next domino to fall. I have no idea, but it was one of the reasons that I moved my cash off the exchange when I turned medium term bear. Not that I trust the UK banking system, but I am pretty sure Slovenia will fall before it ! So for now I can play with BTC on Plus500 and when the price is right I can buy here to track price , transfer fiat over there and buy BTC. Also instant and free to deposit fiat. Works for now ...
Thanks and yes I did a search. WOW! I should have checked sooner. But, the good news is that they just got a lot of cash to inject into the system to help the banks out. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-16/mercator-sale-helps-stabilize-slovenian-banks-amid-fiscal-crisis That should go a while. But I have to come up with a better plan. Bitcoin.de doesn't have a bank so trades take like 2 or 3 days to finalize and people sometimes won't even send the money should BTC tank after the sale. So, don't sell during a downmove there.
June 17, 2013, 05:40:50 PM
If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers
And that's why we have Bitcoin
True, all that I said is a big picture scenario, Bitcoin is by no means big enough to make a Company like Plus500 to go down. There's really no way.
So enjoy it, my friend
I like bitcoin. Plus500 will stay alive (I have no intentions to ruin Plus500 .. I like them they propagate bitcoin .. I only feel easy money :-) .. why not to hedge with Plus500 1:4 )
June 17, 2013, 05:23:55 PM
If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers
And that's why we have Bitcoin
Totally hear you dude. For now though, I am bearish and want to be in fiat
One sniff of bankruptcy and I will take action, but as you point out, it won't be BTC that takes Plus500 down
Actually I think your opinion of banks is spilling over a little onto spread betters ... mostly people lose their money there anyway (lol ), and the majority run hedged books, making money on the spread. They can equally well go bust if a bunch of punters can't meet their margin calls.
Most of what you say is entirely applicable to banks. Brokers have to go rogue to create big problems.
I am not blind ... I see what is likely coming ... and it's gonna get real ugly. But it's not gonna happen tomorrow (I hope
) June 17, 2013, 05:17:41 PM
If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers
And that's why we have Bitcoin
True, all that I said is a big picture scenario, Bitcoin is by no means big enough to make a Company like Plus500 to go down. There's really no way.
So enjoy it, my friend
June 17, 2013, 05:15:48 PM
Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.
I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.
edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)
YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not
I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M. ... and there are only 12M existing ).
The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.
Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?
I would not put it that strongly ... they are just feeding a nation/world's addiction to gambling
Yes, I know they are UK based. I feel safer (for now) having fiat with them than in an account in Slovenia, which is rumoured to be on the edge of a banking crisis. When I think its time to actually buy and hold BTC I will use my Bitstamp account. Meanwhile Plus500 is quicker and safer from my experience. No wallet to get hacked and a nice fiat paper trail.
Leverage and shorting is another issue ... really depends on the net house position, on which we can only speculate. Bad risk management, yeah, could get fucked. I would be more worried if they only traded Bitcoin. As it is, they have other revenue streams.
I agree, if they lose and go bust, customers are left holding the bag, but that's the same if an exchange gets hacked/closed down. We are always on the wrong side of these things and always will be . It's part of the game right now.
Sure, if somebody steals your money at the exchange (hacker, operator, government) then you lose it. But BTC exchanges are supposed to be playing an honest game: not creating money out of thin air, not running on fractional reserve, etc. All the CFD and derivative stuff it's a scam. Plus500 is just gambling, and gambling with your money. Just like the bankers that hold our fiat, they are just multiplying it gambling with it over and over through scams with fancy names (CFDs, CDSs, etc.). And when they lose their gamble, all the loss is on you, not on them.
June 17, 2013, 05:14:57 PM
Today was a glorious day. Large buy order in at 100.04, all bought up right thanks to these rogue spikes before the upcoming rally. The next week should be rather profitable.
June 17, 2013, 05:12:37 PM
You might be right but at the same time wrong. Look at my comment above on how the order book looks good but those sells keep smacking it down (And they are not showing up there.)
Yes I know, but still BTC is weird that way.
I think your reasoning is correct; odds are in favor of going down. Odds don't mean that much in the BTC world, if most of us are in favor of moving up we probably will as people believe their coins are worth $100+ now. only those in desperate need will sell and most are in for the long run
June 17, 2013, 05:11:35 PM
If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers
And that's why we have Bitcoin
June 17, 2013, 05:10:48 PM
Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).
https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1
https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1
duly noted but vetoing
i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha I'm split. You are right - the order book is looking good and has been for days (at least within $5-$10 of the current price). But notice when we start moving in those sells just hit us down again?
It just happened a few minutes ago as I was watching the Gox market. Maybe 350 - 400 BTC sells came through in batches of 50-100 or so. That has been happening for a while, so I don't
exactly trust the order book.
True, but those batches could also just be market makers who are happy to earn a couple nickels on the spread. The bids have been dropping quickly when those hammers come down, but even at their lowest, they've been creeping higher compared to previous lows
June 17, 2013, 05:08:13 PM
Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.
I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.
edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)
YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not
I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M. ... and there are only 12M existing ).
The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.
Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?
I would not put it that strongly ... they are just feeding a nation/world's addiction to gambling
Yes, I know they are UK based. I feel safer (for now) having fiat with them than in an account in Slovenia, which is rumoured to be on the edge of a banking crisis. When I think its time to actually buy and hold BTC I will use my Bitstamp account. Meanwhile Plus500 is quicker and safer from my experience. No wallet to get hacked and a nice fiat paper trail.
Leverage and shorting is another issue ... really depends on the net house position, on which we can only speculate. Bad risk management, yeah, could get fucked. I would be more worried if they only traded Bitcoin. As it is, they have other revenue streams.
I agree, if they lose and go bust, customers are left holding the bag, but that's the same if an exchange gets hacked/closed down. We are always on the wrong side of these things and always will be . It's part of the game right now.
Wait, Slovenia is where Bitstamps bank is located. And Slovenia is close to a banking crisis? Info here please, that is bad...
June 17, 2013, 05:08:09 PM
Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.
I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.
edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)
YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not
I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M. ... and there are only 12M existing ).
Simples ... they won't take that bet . They don't say how much size the bid/offer is good for, thereby (sensibly) always reserving the right to refuse it (or change the price)
They will have limits on how big a position they will take on as a house, and those limits will depend upon how they hedge.
Go try trading 1M on the bid or the offer ... I guarantee you the order wil not be accepted. They are not that stupid.
If none of this is true, you are correct, they have a terrible business model and are really stupid. Dont forget, they trade many, many markets, so this is not likely.
They only need cash and a Gox account to hedge a short house position ... buy some BTC, no worries. They need to borrow BTC to short to hedge a net long ... that is the risk that needs managing.
I think they are trading billions or trillions of dollars so maybe few(tens) millions does not matter. :-) I do not have few tens of millions ... will not try to manipulate. (just idea what may be wrong)
June 17, 2013, 05:07:28 PM
Not necessarily true ... depends on the net position that Plus500 hold, how much risk they take on their book and how much they hedge on Gox or other exchanges if they are net short. Not sure how they deal with net long unless they are able to borrow BTC to short.
I think their business model has error :-). They do not buy or sell bitcoins. You cannot buy/sell bitcoin at plus500 ... only make CFD.
edit: you can after CFD manipulate price easy (if you have enough resources)
YOU cannot buy or sell Bitcoins with them .. it is all CFDs. That does not mean that THEY do not use BTC to hedge when and where they can, and I would be very surprised if they do not
I'm not sure they can DO HEDGE (they do not have enough bitcoins) ... beacause they do not know how much I'll short at their platform (and they need 4x more ... if I'll try short 12M btc then they will need 48M. ... and there are only 12M existing ).
The fact is that shorting with leverage crap is a motherfucking scam. It's just gambling in its purest form, but they are gambling with customers money - if they lose big time and go bust, it's their customers who are left holding the bag. The managers who drive the business are just swimming in money pools and are the same scammers doing the very same tricks that trigger the financial crisis in the modern world.
Did you know that plus500 is owned by UK banks, did you?
I only know, it is easy to extract $$$ from plus500 :-) (they do not understand what is bitcoin) Nothing illegal they make bet I'll accept bet ... I'll win bet. Theirs company go down. Somebody makes mistake.
If the company go down (but it won't, because Bitcoin it's still too small) is your money they lose. What you funded in their account and all the gains you did not withdrew. Just like when it's your bank that go bankrupt. All money that it's not under your mattress is gone. The individuals running the business have no risk, it's their customers who are risking their money trusting it to a bunch of white collar gambling scammers
And that's why we have Bitcoin
June 17, 2013, 05:04:50 PM
Well, you guys might be right that we move up. But here is another bad divergence(s).
https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1
https://twitter.com/AlbertarocksTA/status/346698741585170432/photo/1
duly noted but vetoing
i'm trusting a read on the flow of the order book. The action is painting a picture of a reversal in recent pessimism. Still a bull(shit?) market haha and thats why BTC is hard to TA. the sentiment here turned bullish
You might be right but at the same time wrong. Look at my comment above on how the order book looks good but those sells keep smacking it down (And they are not showing up there.)
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