Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33024. (Read 26497678 times)
June 24, 2013, 05:00:05 PM
June 24, 2013, 04:48:33 PM
Its weird, those oversold/overbought indicators almost always seem to work? Is it just because people follow them - or is there actually something significant behind them?
I mean, it didnt scream overbought on the way up to 260, but it did "predict" a few of the [very]-short term spikes down... as well as up.
I mean, it didnt scream overbought on the way up to 260, but it did "predict" a few of the [very]-short term spikes down... as well as up.
There's a lot of different ways to read each one of the indicators, and they all pretty much measure different things in different ways. They are slightly lagging indicators, so they can change their mind at the last moment, as with moving average lines. And they have the potential to stay oversold/overbought for a long time, or become even more oversold/overbought without much difficulty. Or they can quickly go from oversold to overbought without much difference in the price.
Yet there's a lot of things to look out for in these indicators, such as for example Hidden Divergences on the Fisher indicator: www.babypips.com/school/hidden-divergence.html
June 24, 2013, 04:39:39 PM
Its weird, those oversold/overbought indicators almost always seem to work? Is it just because people follow them - or is there actually something significant behind them?
I mean, it didnt scream overbought on the way up to 260, but it did "predict" a few of the [very]-short term spikes down... as well as up.
I mean, it didnt scream overbought on the way up to 260, but it did "predict" a few of the [very]-short term spikes down... as well as up.
June 24, 2013, 04:32:05 PM
Oversold:
June 24, 2013, 04:31:43 PM
Oversold and overbought only applies in a ranging market as trend reversals. When in a trending market, moving into overbought/oversold is to be regarded as the confirmation, and leaving it as a possible trend reversal.
Check it out:
]http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-05-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
Check it out:
]http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-05-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
This. Also, overbought and oversold are dependent on the time frame you are discussing. As you can see above, on the daily scale we are nowhere near oversold.
That's what I'm referring to. Indicators are only used to see if a market might be oversold or not. Try looking at the Accumulation / Distribution of 2013 in comparison to 2011 to get an idea of the big picture.
I don't get it. You're telling me to look at the big picture while screaming the market is oversold based on some short term wiggles. Longer term we are nowhere near oversold.
June 24, 2013, 04:25:18 PM
Come on gox move! 
June 24, 2013, 04:24:36 PM
Oversold and overbought only applies in a ranging market as trend reversals. When in a trending market, moving into overbought/oversold is to be regarded as the confirmation, and leaving it as a possible trend reversal.
Check it out:
]http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-05-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
Check it out:
]http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-05-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
This. Also, overbought and oversold are dependent on the time frame you are discussing. As you can see above, on the daily scale we are nowhere near oversold.
That's what I'm referring to. Indicators are only used to see if a market might be oversold or not. Try looking at the Accumulation / Distribution of 2013 in comparison to 2011 to get an idea of the big picture.
June 24, 2013, 04:23:57 PM
This. Also, overbought and oversold are dependent on the time frame you are discussing. As you can see above, on the daily scale we are nowhere near oversold.
Yes, it depends on timeframe.
Personally i don't use daily timeframe, because does not fit my appetite, which is somewhat shorter sighted
. June 24, 2013, 04:18:28 PM
Oversold and overbought only applies in a ranging market as trend reversals. When in a trending market, moving into overbought/oversold is to be regarded as the confirmation, and leaving it as a possible trend reversal.
Check it out:
]http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-05-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
Check it out:
]http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=90&i=&c=1&s=2012-12-01&e=2013-05-01&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=10&x=1&i1=RSI&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
This. Also, overbought and oversold are dependent on the time frame you are discussing. As you can see above, on the daily scale we are nowhere near oversold.
June 24, 2013, 04:14:09 PM
Oversold and overbought only applies in a ranging market as trend reversals. When in a trending market, moving into overbought/oversold is to be regarded as the confirmation, and leaving it as a possible trend reversal.
Check it out:
Check it out:
June 24, 2013, 04:13:13 PM
(...) that's why we're having this brain dead market that should be rising, but instead it is fighting against this insanity. The market doesn't want to go down, but it might, because of the people who believe it will.
LOL.... somehow the market has a different opinion than the market.
What I mean is, the market is oversold. There's only a limited amount that can be sold without a market rising, unless there is extreme pessimistic pressure. Eventually enough of it will go into long term hoarding/investing that the market will have no choice but to rise.
Yes, market is oversold. Also selling pressure today was not strong enough to bend price under 100$ and that's interesting.
As we lacked volume up, now we're now lacking volume down - MtGox hyatus sure played a role here.
Still we're on the edge, let's see what's happening tomorrow, in the meantime we may eventually reach 105$ again.
June 24, 2013, 04:10:20 PM
What I mean is, the market is oversold. There's only a limited amount that can be sold without rising. Eventually enough of it will go into long term hoarding/investing that the market will have no choice but to rise.
Uh?
What about "There's only a limited amount that can bought without falling"?
There is no shortage of coins.
When the price is going up, the supply seems to go dry...
But when the price is going down, a seemingly endless stream of coins can hit the exchanges.
It goes both ways, of course. Right now we're oversold. If we were overbought, it will be the other way around.
June 24, 2013, 04:09:47 PM
What I mean is, the market is oversold. There's only a limited amount that can be sold, unless there is extreme pessimistic pressure. Eventually enough of it will go into long term hoarding/investing that the market will have no choice but to rise. Usually this is kind of market is marked by slow gradual falls that is very lethargic.
June 24, 2013, 04:09:36 PM
ShroomsKit... Tell us the truth... Did you sell yet?
And Nagle... Did you buy, Nagle?
And Nagle... Did you buy, Nagle?
I don't sell. Ever.
If it drops more, can you afford to buy more?
Just curious.
I bought before the bubble and i bought a couple of times when it crashed. So very low. It has to drop a lot before i start losing money.
With your constant complaining about the price going down a dollar and what seems to be little understanding of how the market works, its hard to believe that.
"Wahhh, someone took a profit, now I'm losing munny
They're a big dumb doo-doo head too!" Sorry, but you're really annoying when you pull that crap almost daily.
Yeah, i'm really just lying. Better put me on ignore.
I am in the same position, but it still hurts me when it drops.
June 24, 2013, 04:08:01 PM
What I mean is, the market is oversold. There's only a limited amount that can be sold without rising. Eventually enough of it will go into long term hoarding/investing that the market will have no choice but to rise.
Uh?
What about "There's only a limited amount that can bought without falling"?
There is no shortage of coins.
When the price is going up, the supply seems to go dry...
But when the price is going down, a seemingly endless stream of coins can hit the exchanges.
June 24, 2013, 04:01:46 PM
(...) that's why we're having this brain dead market that should be rising, but instead it is fighting against this insanity. The market doesn't want to go down, but it might, because of the people who believe it will.
LOL.... somehow the market has a different opinion than the market.
What I mean is, the market is oversold. There's only a limited amount that can be sold, unless there is extreme pessimistic pressure. Eventually enough of it will go into long term hoarding/investing that the market will have no choice but to rise. Usually this is kind of market is marked by slow gradual falls that is very lethargic.
June 24, 2013, 04:00:09 PM
June 24, 2013, 03:49:33 PM
As a long bull I am feeling very bearish. These Mt Gox issues are bad in my mind. People are happy Gox is losing market share but for me it's more like the lynchpin of the bitcoin ecosystem is failing due to political forces. If the bitcoin processors are dependent on gox then we are close to the point where retailers give up.
Yes. A healthy MtGox is good for Bitcoin. Bitpay and others need a proper fx market with depth to maintain their business. The other exchanges are too illiquid. I think that people who want mtgox to fail are mostly those hoping to buy BTC at 2012 values because they missed the ramp up this year.
I think that most of the people who want Mt. Gox to die, know that things have to be purged in order to improve. Right now we pretty much only have a one headed Hydra, but if Mt. Gox were to go down in flames, or lose its market share, it would only diversify the commerce, instead of depending on a single weakest link. As we are, we depend largely on a single headed Hyrdra, that isn't always constant, but if we had others to diversify in, we'd have much less collective risk.
I think that the people who want Mt. Gox out of the big picture are the same people who want a decentralized currency.
June 24, 2013, 03:48:20 PM
Here a toy for wall-movement trackers 
http://trading.i286.org/
http://trading.i286.org/ 
June 24, 2013, 03:47:36 PM
I sold all my trading coins (100 BTC) @ average 101.97 USD/BTC. I think I'll buy back @ 80-85 USD/BTC.
Oh, I didn't realize we get to pick the price we buy back at... Excellent. I'll be buying back in at $2.
you get to pick price or time, but not both.
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