Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33065. (Read 26466186 times)
June 08, 2013, 05:57:43 AM
Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.
June 08, 2013, 05:56:18 AM
Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.
My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!
I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)
Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away
I know seeing it is painful for some folk.
June 08, 2013, 05:39:52 AM
Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.
My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!
I tend to agree with you that we are in the now in long slow slide phase of bubble deflation (slow in Bitcoin terms could mean anything!)
Glad you apologised for the chart ... I have put my compass away
June 08, 2013, 05:37:37 AM
The case for a trend reversal
Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?
100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses
Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales
Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?
Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?
100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses
Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales
Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?
Maybe you are not aware of the number of coins mined: 11,259,425 v/s the 20,000 of that 105-106 wall
True 100 is psychological barrier , but it doesn't imply it can hold if there is not enough buyers/Fiat able to hold that price.
Whales lead the way, not the small fish,they give the signal not the way around. Remember all crashes were stopped by massive buy back which is nonexistent now. If there is no buying pressure, you'll get your signal.
June 08, 2013, 05:33:29 AM
EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?
I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.
The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.
Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?
Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.
Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.
Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.
My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!
June 08, 2013, 05:25:55 AM
EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?
I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.
The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.
Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?
Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.
Agreed ... no guarantee of the bounce if we crashed as there would still likely be this 'overhang'. And it would likely put many people off.
Re investors, the biggest problem IMO is not price, it is liquidity. There is no out ... thats why we are experiencing what is happening now.
June 08, 2013, 05:01:33 AM
June 08, 2013, 05:00:09 AM
EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?
I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.
The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.
Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?
Well, we could crash to 50 then have another long slow slide. For BTC to be an attractive large investment, the future price target must be high above the current level. If those investors aren't buying in now, nothing says they will buy in at $50. And if you're looking for increased mass adoption, a dump to $50 at s time when it is difficult for them to transfer in money, will NOT have the punters queuing up to buy.
June 08, 2013, 04:57:22 AM
The case for a trend reversal
Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?
100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses
Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales
Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?
Everyone is a bear now, who is left to sell?
100 is an important psychological barrier, it could be the point where the trend reverses
Whales will buy back when they give up hope of seeing double digits, once buying pressure starts to build up it will be the signal they need to buy back in which will bring in more whales
Trend of higher lows since the crash: 50 - 79 - 98 - 103 - 105?
June 08, 2013, 04:44:59 AM
EDIT: Yeah, some would like an immediate dump to $50 to buy cheaper, but is that really better for BTC than a slow(ish) decline like this, even if it takes weeks ?
I keep thinking about plasters. I don't like it, but I know that sucker's gotta come off.
The longer it stays inflated, the greater the long term hurt. IMHO.
Also, why let the whales cash out at your expense?
June 08, 2013, 04:32:13 AM
I find it easier to pay for some things with Bitcoin than fiat. It only takes a couple of clicks.
The key is how you buy the bitcoins. I happen to have some, so it's easier. Buying them is also still relatively easy. If I had to wire money each time, it wouldn't be worth it.
In terms of *receiving* money, I'd rather have BTC (for the aforementioned reason) than USD or other fiat, and prefer BTC over PayPal or other reversible payment methods.
It's still small, but the potential is there. Try to look into the future a bit.
Yeah the key is how you buy the bitcoins. I am talking from a perspective of a person watching BBC not a BTC miner. Why would a person watching BBC want to buy something with BTC when they can use what they have already (traditional methods) - the only reason to go into BTC for them, other than speculation is to use it on silkroad. At least for now, BTC poses no advantages to them to justify fiat -> btc -> service/good route, of course with exception of silkroad. (I am not talking about store of value and speculation here)
Store of value is directly relevant to the discussion though. They are not mutually exclusive factors. Because if you own BTC you are (obviously) more likely to spend BTC. If BTC increases in value you are more likely to jump through the hoops to buy. If more people own BTC there will be more opportunities to spend it.
Currently it's a chicken and egg argument -- which is one that neither of us can win. It appears you've been trying to win that argument since day one on this forum. You're wasting your breath.
June 08, 2013, 04:27:08 AM
Another likely scenario is that we just hover around here for another 3 months with minimal volume, growing back some balls.
I don't pretend to be able to see the future, but I can sometimes see things that have no future. ^^this.
free yourself brother...
June 08, 2013, 04:20:29 AM
Another likely scenario is that we just hover around here for another 3 months with minimal volume, growing back some balls.
... Of course, when we finally break out to the upside, rally will be killed off by a dumper within a week before a new trend can be decisively established. :-(
... Of course, when we finally break out to the upside, rally will be killed off by a dumper within a week before a new trend can be decisively established. :-(
June 08, 2013, 04:19:35 AM
The case for continuing downtrend:
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
I will welcome them with open arms
June 08, 2013, 04:17:39 AM
The case for continuing downtrend:
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.
The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.
Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.
Hello 100 and double digits..
June 08, 2013, 04:16:32 AM
I find it easier to pay for some things with Bitcoin than fiat. It only takes a couple of clicks.
The key is how you buy the bitcoins. I happen to have some, so it's easier. Buying them is also still relatively easy. If I had to wire money each time, it wouldn't be worth it.
In terms of *receiving* money, I'd rather have BTC (for the aforementioned reason) than USD or other fiat, and prefer BTC over PayPal or other reversible payment methods.
It's still small, but the potential is there. Try to look into the future a bit.
Yeah the key is how you buy the bitcoins. I am talking from a perspective of a person watching BBC not a BTC miner. Why would a person watching BBC want to buy something with BTC when they can use what they have already (traditional methods) - the only reason to go into BTC for them, other than speculation is to use it on silkroad. At least for now, BTC poses no advantages to them to justify fiat -> btc -> service/good route, of course with exception of silkroad. (I am not talking about store of value and speculation here)
June 08, 2013, 04:12:31 AM
Thing is drugs are the only thing that bitcoin is better to be used for buying instead of fiat.
Really? I'm pretty sure that 99% of the drug dealers out there prefer real money.
You are pretending not to understand what I meant or should I explain?
I find it easier to pay for some things with Bitcoin than fiat. It only takes a couple of clicks.
The key is how you buy the bitcoins. I happen to have some, so it's easier. Buying them is also still relatively easy. If I had to wire money each time, it wouldn't be worth it.
In terms of *receiving* money, I'd rather have BTC (for the aforementioned reason) than USD or other fiat, and prefer BTC over PayPal or other reversible payment methods.
It's still small, but the potential is there. Try to look into the future a bit.
June 08, 2013, 04:11:53 AM
You know, what confuses me about this drop, is it doesn't appear to be triggered by anything. I've been a firm believer that we would retest our lows in the 60-80 range at some point, but I always assumed it be triggered by some major news event. How sick would it be if this was the ultimate bear trap. Shake all the weak hands and run it up to 500. 
the 8k wall can do whatever he wants
.. if he feels we hit bottom.. it's time for the other way to make profit .. 
June 08, 2013, 04:04:41 AM
Thing is drugs are the only thing that bitcoin is better to be used for buying instead of fiat.
Really? I'm pretty sure that 99% of the drug dealers out there prefer real money.
You are pretending not to understand what I meant or should I explain?
I guess i don't understand what you mean then?
Edit: i got it.
June 08, 2013, 04:02:57 AM
Thing is drugs are the only thing that bitcoin is better to be used for buying instead of fiat.
Really? I'm pretty sure that 99% of the drug dealers out there prefer real money.
You are pretending not to understand what I meant or should I explain?
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