Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33064.

samson

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on June 08, 2013, 06:50:23 AM

Quote from: phoenix1 on June 08, 2013, 06:44:08 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on June 08, 2013, 06:40:08 AM

People who went "all in" at 50 do care.

If they are all in at $50 and scared of a crash then they are over extended and should reduce their exposure ... at a profit. What a terrible problem to be faced with Cheesy

They should, of course but people don't act rational that way.

If they went all in at $50 they should have sold them already - I know I have and I went all in at $60.

I'm just waiting for it to bottom out now.

After selling at $162 I was told by many people that I'm going to miss the train and will regret it.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: phoenix1 on June 08, 2013, 06:44:08 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on June 08, 2013, 06:40:08 AM

People who went "all in" at 50 do care.

If they are all in at $50 and scared of a crash then they are over extended and should reduce their exposure ... at a profit. What a terrible problem to be faced with Cheesy

They should, of course but people don't act rational that way.

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ElectricMucus on June 08, 2013, 06:40:08 AM

People who went "all in" at 50 do care.

If they are all in at $50 and scared of a crash then they are over extended and should reduce their exposure ... at a profit. What a terrible problem to be faced with Cheesy

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

People who went "all in" at 50 do care.

Rampion

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Quote from: gizmoh on June 08, 2013, 06:34:34 AM

Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 08, 2013, 06:26:15 AM

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 04:19:35 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 08, 2013, 04:17:39 AM

The case for continuing downtrend:

The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.

The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.

Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.

Hello 100 and double digits..

I will welcome them with open arms Grin

Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything.

Agree. Cheap coins might be 'costlier' at one point.

You really have weak faith in BTC if you think that a bubble deflation can "hurt" it. Let it go bust. It will slowly recover, real economy and infrastructure will slowly improve, and it will rise much stronger during the next hype cycle. It can happen in 2 years. Seriously, who cares? This is not a get quick rich investment. It's much more than that.

gizmoh

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Quote from: ShroomsKit on June 08, 2013, 06:26:15 AM

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 04:19:35 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 08, 2013, 04:17:39 AM

The case for continuing downtrend:

The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.

The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.

Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.

Hello 100 and double digits..

I will welcome them with open arms Grin

Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything.

Agree. Cheap coins might be 'costlier' at one point.

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: zebedee on June 08, 2013, 06:11:35 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

This is what I think I know :

1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger

[...]

How am I doing so far ?

Not so well. Try again

If I remove the decentralised bit does it sound better ? Wink

Clearly the blockchain is the blockchain ... saying it was decentralised was dumb. I intended to refer to the decentralised nature of the network supporting and processing it.

EDIT: I've just been advised that it is not encrypted either ... bit of a fail there ... more homework
Thanks zebedee ...

Miz4r

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Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 06:05:37 AM

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 05:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ...

free yourself!

Yes I free myself by buying bitcoins thanks. Cheesy

If it looks like FUD, smells like FUD, ...

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 04:19:35 AM

Quote from: gizmoh on June 08, 2013, 04:17:39 AM

The case for continuing downtrend:

The whales are not buying back. There is no buying pressure.

The price is hovering around 110 with low volume just like previous support at 120.

Another big dump comes in at 105 and all hell break loose.

Hello 100 and double digits..

I will welcome them with open arms Grin

Ofcourse. What could better than Bitcoin going down! I can't think of anything.

sarc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 08, 2013, 06:20:39 AM

I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart Cheesy

wipe those bleary eyes and have a coffee.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

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I just woke up so I might have made a mistake. Did I misunderstand the chart?

log(25.3+1) = 1.42 (currently for $25.3 and 1.42 scores)
log(10782.5+1) = 4.0328 (in 500 days)

My math seems to work out, so the other option is I completely misunderstood the chart Cheesy

Note; the 4.0328 figure comes from extrapolating the growth between 500 and 1000 days linearly

sarc

member

Activity: 98

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Quote from: wachtwoord on June 08, 2013, 06:11:43 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 05:33:29 AM

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*

Code:

Day 500  ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42

500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84

So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328

log(10783.5) = 4.0328

So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5

* I'm not advocating this model

oops, you might want to check your math

bitcoin price (logged+1) = -0.0635+0.0013791*days since the start

in 500 days = $100.2

edit : I don't advocate this model either. Roll Eyes

wachtwoord

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Activity: 2324

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Quote from: sarc on June 08, 2013, 05:33:29 AM

Apologies for posting this again. But it's to make the point that we could be a 1/3 of the way through (or more...) the post bubble correction - given how long it took to return to the underlying growth trend in 2011. People often described that as a long slow slide.

My guess is that once we're there, and the pain subsides (another 30 ish days on this chart in 2011), people will find the idea of their money growing exponentially quite attractive!

You do realize even this chart, although used to explain the bear case, with it's extremely low assumptions (it calculates the FV of Bitcoin on $25.30) predicts a price of >$10,000 per Bitcoin in 500 days?

I'll just leave this here*

Code:

Day 500  ==> 0.5
Day 1000 ==> 1.42

500 day increase 1.42/0.5=2.84

So in the 500 days: 1.42*2.84 = 4.0328

log(10783.5) = 4.0328

So Bitcoin price in 500 days: $10782.5

* I'm not advocating this model

zebedee

donator

Activity: 668

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

This is what I think I know :

1) The blockchain essentially a decentralised, encrypted ledger

[...]

How am I doing so far ?

Not so well. Try again

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: prof7bit on June 08, 2013, 06:07:08 AM

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

FUCK ME ! And I thought I was bearish ...

Rampion

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Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 05:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

If you are interested only in BTC going up up up, it may be the smartest thing indeed.

I find funny how all the ones singing the "BTC is only useful for Silk Road" song are noobs that probably came into BTC because it was going to the freaking moon, and they wanted fiat profit. Then, the BTC bubble bursted and entered the slow deflation, so they are bitter and sound butthurt, and keep saying that the only use of BTC are drugs and speculation, and unfortunately (for them) they were late in order to tenfold their investment speculating.

Really man, all this is so 2011. Exactly the same arguments.

If you are in this for profit, zoom out and think that the price was $0.07 in 2010. And $2 in November 2011. And $10ish just 6 months ago.

If you are in this because it's more than fiat profits, think that freedom is much more important than convenience. Screw micropayments. Bitcoin is here to help you to be free.

prof7bit

hero member

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https://youengine.io/

Two possible bearish targets:

(the lower pink line is a parallel to the one connecting the tops)

sarc

member

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Merit: 10

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 05:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

As I remember people saying when the price was skyrocketing but other were still denying it was a bubble:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, ...

free yourself!

phoenix1

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 08, 2013, 05:57:43 AM

Eh so it seems that the smartest thing to do now is somehow forget about clarkmoody and come back in 3 months.

I challenge you to do that ! People talk about Bitcoins connection to drugs (yawn) ... the real drug is the Bitcoin price

ChartBuddy

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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33064. (Read 26466182 times)