Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33347.

strawbs

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Quote from: crumbs on June 11, 2013, 08:12:55 AM

Interesting take on statistics. You feel that if X is twice as likely as Y in the long term, the short term probability is still 50/50?

In this particular market, yes. In fact, in pretty much any market. Let's assume that we all think that one bitcoin will be worth $1000 in 2015, or 2014, or Sep this year. This will have next to zero impact whatsoever on how the price of one bitcoin will change between now and 24 hours from now, or a week from now.

lucas.sev

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Quote from: Miz4r on June 11, 2013, 08:16:40 AM

One difference I notice between 2011 and now, is that back then most people were taken by suprise and weren't prepared for the fall. Now it's like everyone's expecting it and preparing for it, which makes me kind of worried that it's not going to happen at all. Maybe it will just consolidate here for a long time, make a few more short dips into the double digits and then move up leaving all the sad bears behind. I'm still speculating on a larger dip, but I see the above as a serious possibility.

Well according to all the nice 2011-2013 graph overlays we are right on track for the long and painful slide.

sarc

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Quote from: Miz4r on June 11, 2013, 08:16:40 AM

One difference I notice between 2011 and now, is that back then most people were taken by suprise and weren't prepared for the fall. Now it's like everyone's expecting it and preparing for it, which makes me kind of worried that it's not going to happen at all. Maybe it will just consolidate here for a long time, make a few more short dips into the double digits and then move up leaving all the sad bears behind. I'm still speculating on a larger dip, but I see the above as a serious possibility.

I wonder about the opposite, lots of fingers poised over the sell button...

Dalib

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 08:11:15 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 11, 2013, 08:01:36 AM

Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 06:34:00 AM

I'm currently 100% fiat again, looking for a suitable price to buy back in (very speculatively, I'm looking at something around USD52, since I think USD50 will be a psychological trigger with mass-buy in, that will see the beginning of a steady, sustainable, non-bubbled climb)

Oh boy, we are really all on the same page. In fact, after reading your post, I decided to put my biggest bid a tad higher, it was at $52.25 and now it's now at $53.75 (aprox., I'm trading in EUR). My biggest bid during the April, 10th crash was unfilled, as it was at 37ish€, and I missed it for such a low margin... I think the absolute low was 37.8€ or something like that. I still did a nice profit as I re-loaded the truck at an average price of 50€ish ($65ish), but still I don't want that to happen again Wink

Ok I put mine at 53.85! Who's going to give more? Cheesy

with this logic, everyone writes that the price may fall to 30-50, but we prefer to give orders to 50-70

Miz4r

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One difference I notice between 2011 and now, is that back then most people were taken by suprise and weren't prepared for the fall. Now it's like everyone's expecting it and preparing for it, which makes me kind of worried that it's not going to happen at all. Maybe it will just consolidate here for a long time, make a few more short dips into the double digits and then move up leaving all the sad bears behind. I'm still speculating on a larger dip, but I see the above as a serious possibility.

crumbs

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 08:00:08 AM

Quote from: crumbs on June 11, 2013, 07:54:36 AM

Isn't that gambling, defined? Some day traders do more than simply watch the price & ignore past performance etc.

Yes, it is really. Day trading is very much gambling, it tends not to rely on past performance (given the short period of involvement) which is likely only to be relevant over a longer period of time.

Interesting take on statistics. You feel that if X is twice as likely as Y in the long term, the short term probability is still 50/50?

lucas.sev

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: Rampion on June 11, 2013, 08:01:36 AM

Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 06:34:00 AM

I'm currently 100% fiat again, looking for a suitable price to buy back in (very speculatively, I'm looking at something around USD52, since I think USD50 will be a psychological trigger with mass-buy in, that will see the beginning of a steady, sustainable, non-bubbled climb)

Oh boy, we are really all on the same page. In fact, after reading your post, I decided to put my biggest bid a tad higher, it was at $52.25 and now it's now at $53.75 (aprox., I'm trading in EUR). My biggest bid during the April, 10th crash was unfilled, as it was at 37ish€, and I missed it for such a low margin... I think the absolute low was 37.8€ or something like that. I still did a nice profit as I re-loaded the truck at an average price of 50€ish ($65ish), but still I don't want that to happen again Wink

Ok I put mine at 53.85! Who's going to give more? Cheesy

Rampion

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 06:34:00 AM

I'm currently 100% fiat again, looking for a suitable price to buy back in (very speculatively, I'm looking at something around USD52, since I think USD50 will be a psychological trigger with mass-buy in, that will see the beginning of a steady, sustainable, non-bubbled climb)

Oh boy, we are really all on the same page. In fact, after reading your post, I decided to put my biggest bid a tad higher, it was at $52.25 and now it's now at $53.75 (aprox., I'm trading in EUR). My biggest bid during the April, 10th crash was unfilled, as it was at 37ish€, and I missed it for such a low margin... I think the absolute low was 37.8€ or something like that. I still did a nice profit as I re-loaded the truck at an average price of 50€ish ($65ish), but still I don't want that to happen again Wink

ChartBuddy

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strawbs

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Quote from: crumbs on June 11, 2013, 07:54:36 AM

Isn't that gambling, defined? Some day traders do more than simply watch the price & ignore past performance etc.

Yes, it is really. Day trading is very much gambling, it tends not to rely on past performance (given the short period of involvement) which is likely only to be relevant over a longer period of time.

Bitcoinpro

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:21:19 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 11, 2013, 06:51:00 AM

Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)

I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.

I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.

I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....

EDIT - sorry, that was meant to be a response to "stereotype". Spot the newb forum user!

its not reckless though the bigger the size of the investment/wealth transfer the more research that should go into it

crumbs

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:41:52 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:35:05 AM

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise. That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

Isn't that gambling, defined? Some day traders do more than simply watch the price & ignore past performance etc.

strawbs

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Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:46:01 AM

If that's true, and I'm a bit skeptical, then you're one a very few joining the speculative bubble that didn't think that way. And the price kept going up the way the chart said it would....for a while.

Well yes, that's a possibility, I may be in the minority in my approach I suppose (but I don't think so). Of course I had a suspicion that the price would rise (otherwise why would I buy in?). My point is that lines on charts generally only serve to give reassurance to the drawer of the line that their current theory is the correct side of the 50/50.

Anyway, this is speculation so we're not all going to agree. If we did all agree, there'd be nothing to buy in to

Peace right back at you.

sarc

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:41:52 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:35:05 AM

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise. That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

If that's true, and I'm a bit skeptical, then you're one of a very few joining the speculative bubble that didn't think that way. And the price kept going up the way the chart said it would....for a while. But anyway, peace.

strawbs

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Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:35:05 AM

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise. That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

crumbs

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:30:51 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:28:07 AM

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

Are you saying that TA is less capable of interpreting a market driven by price manipulation? Should this be self-evident?

sarc

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:30:51 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:28:07 AM

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

strawbs

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Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:28:07 AM

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

sarc

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 06:34:00 AM

* bitcoin can be compared to neither commodities nor fiat currency at this stage. It doesn't have the trading volume to be considered a currency (you can't get in and out quickly and you can't use leverage) and it doesn't have a substantial supply/demand market, nor a real 'use' (yet) to be considered comparable to a commodity
* as such, drawing any kind of line on a chart is utterly pointless, since the usual 'rules' (which are dubious in any case) certainly won't apply here. Even more so considering that past history (pre-April, say) did not include many traders such as myself. Now it does, so previous trends can be ignored since we now have a lot of price manipulation going on
* price movements are currently being caused entirely by speculation (or 99% at least)
* steady, sustainable price growth will only occur with a much higher volume of trades and with mass adoption
* the volatility of the price is what has attracted day/short term traders
* the illiquidity of the market is what has caused fiat to leave in recent weeks (this was my reason, it became too difficult to capitalise on price fluctuations unless they were arounf 5% due to lack of bid volume)

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

KS

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 07:22:05 AM

Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:21:19 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 11, 2013, 06:51:00 AM

Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)

I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.

I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.

I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....

I switched to USD because GBP had crazy spreads in late April.

USD is the main currency, better liquidity. Other fiat might give some arb possibilities though (as well as using other exchanges - I kind of like Bitstamp too - great exchange rate).

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