If we look at the market cap of ripple (which now apparently is TWICE that of bitcoin), we're only decimal shifting away from the price of bitcoin exploding. The human psyche is interesting. The same applies to alternative currencies. It's like if people are unable to think in anything but units. "Oh, 1 BTC costs $122, that's very costly". Yet, ripple costs twice that, if you where to divide by total units. Pretty ridiculous, and a very good reason to adapt mBTC.
A similar effect could even be accomplished by multiplying all bitcoins in existence with say 100x. So everyone who now owns 1 BTC will suddenly own 100 BTC, with a limt of 2100 million instead of 21 million. There is no difference, but I'm convinced the psychological effect of a change like this would cause massive increase in the price.
The evidence is right in front of our eyes, ripple has nowhere the same adaption as bitcoin.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33459. (Read 26496449 times)
May 20, 2013, 12:12:41 PM
May 20, 2013, 12:06:44 PM
If you are offered to swap as often as you want, with your new envelope randomly holding double or half the money of the one before, then you should swap endlessly often (lets say: as often as feasable).
After all of your swaps, the chance that you get more than 100$ from your envelope is almost 50%, the chance that you get less than 100$ is also almost 50% (and a small chance that you hold exactly 100$).
However, if you get more than 100$ in your envelope, you get at LEAST 200$, but possibly much more. If you get less than 100$, you will still never get less than 0$.
Every swap will increase your expected return (too lazy to research the exact equation though).
After all of your swaps, the chance that you get more than 100$ from your envelope is almost 50%, the chance that you get less than 100$ is also almost 50% (and a small chance that you hold exactly 100$).
However, if you get more than 100$ in your envelope, you get at LEAST 200$, but possibly much more. If you get less than 100$, you will still never get less than 0$.
Every swap will increase your expected return (too lazy to research the exact equation though).
see electricmucus's link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem ?
May 20, 2013, 12:03:48 PM
If you are offered to swap as often as you want, with your new envelope randomly holding double or half the money of the one before, then you should swap endlessly often (lets say: as often as feasable).
After all of your swaps, the chance that you get more than 100$ from your envelope is almost 50%, the chance that you get less than 100$ is also almost 50% (and a small chance that you hold exactly 100$).
However, if you get more than 100$ in your envelope, you get at LEAST 200$, but possibly much more. If you get less than 100$, you will still never get less than 0$.
Every swap will increase your expected return (too lazy to research the exact equation though).
After all of your swaps, the chance that you get more than 100$ from your envelope is almost 50%, the chance that you get less than 100$ is also almost 50% (and a small chance that you hold exactly 100$).
However, if you get more than 100$ in your envelope, you get at LEAST 200$, but possibly much more. If you get less than 100$, you will still never get less than 0$.
Every swap will increase your expected return (too lazy to research the exact equation though).
May 20, 2013, 12:02:31 PM
May 20, 2013, 11:59:47 AM
In a sec. I just realized there's a whole bunch of stuff added to the Monty Halls page on WikiP. Tons of stuff.
edit: And i'm reading it now
May 20, 2013, 11:58:10 AM
Phew. *wipes brow* Good for me, it was my badly-thought out flip on the Monty Hall Problem 
edit:^^^
edit:^^^
Doesn't the Monty Hall problem involve Monty Hall? (Meaning that the actions Monty Hall does take are influenced by your choice, if you have chosen the car first hand he has two goats to choose from but if you choose a goat first he has only one goat to reveal)
I'm fairly certain this is a different problem, and I am almost certain there is a name for it already....
Yes and no -- yes it's a different problem, hence "badly thought out flip." What's the name?
Well there is the TWO envelopes problem, according to wikipedia there is no consensus about it - and this seems to be a variant of it, you evil bastard
I swear i'm back from searching for Monty Hall variations & finding esoterica
Give me a pointer!Did you also read the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_envelopes_problem ?
May 20, 2013, 11:52:45 AM
Phew. *wipes brow* Good for me, it was my badly-thought out flip on the Monty Hall Problem
edit:^^^
edit:^^^
Doesn't the Monty Hall problem involve Monty Hall? (Meaning that the actions Monty Hall does take are influenced by your choice, if you have chosen the car first hand he has two goats to choose from but if you choose a goat first he has only one goat to reveal)
I'm fairly certain this is a different problem, and I am almost certain there is a name for it already....
Yes and no -- yes it's a different problem, hence "badly thought out flip." What's the name?
Well there is the TWO envelopes problem, according to wikipedia there is no consensus about it - and this seems to be a variant of it, you evil bastard
I swear i'm back from searching for Monty Hall variations & finding esoterica
Give me a pointer! May 20, 2013, 11:52:28 AM
For bitcoin to really go up it needs normal people to regularly see things offered for sale in BTC, such as when they're shopping on Amazon or their local supermarket website, or even in the supermarket itself. It also needs to be as easy to buy things with as normal money, or at least as easy as paying with a debit card. Bitcoin conferences may be a good thing but the existence of bitcoins isn't news to those who attend them, even now if you stop people in the street and ask what they know of bitcoins most will say they've never heard of them. If the average Joe had £20 worth of bitcoins that'd be a huge increase in the amount of fiat invested in BTC.
I think you've got it the wrong way round. For the average Joe to have $20 worth of bitcoins and for it to be accepted in all the places you're saying the price will have had to have increased enormously. You've probably seen similar calcs before but give you an idea, given 21m bitcoins divided by pop. usa would mean 66.3 mBTC p/p (assuming all mined, none lost, all non-USA citizens sold). For 66.3 mBTC to be worth $20 1 BTC would be worth $3,316.
This assumes your 'average Joe' holds an average amount. However, given many worldwide are also interested, given there'll likely be fewer than 3/4th, given that many of those are either put away for posterity or lost and given that a small number are likely to hold a huge quantity, for the 'average Joe' to carry about $20 worth a single bitcoin is likely to be much much higher.
There are many many steps between where we are today and the scenario you describe. I don't see the benefit of looking at bitcoin as unsatisfactory today simply because those steps have not been taken yet. More important is that the steps taken so far are leading to the next steps and it is here I believe we have significant momentum.
May 20, 2013, 11:48:49 AM
Phew. *wipes brow* Good for me, it was my badly-thought out flip on the Monty Hall Problem
edit:^^^
edit:^^^
Doesn't the Monty Hall problem involve Monty Hall? (Meaning that the actions Monty Hall does take are influenced by your choice, if you have chosen the car first hand he has two goats to choose from but if you choose a goat first he has only one goat to reveal)
I'm fairly certain this is a different problem, and I am almost certain there is a name for it already....
Yes and no -- yes it's a different problem, hence "badly thought out flip." What's the name?
Well there is the TWO envelopes problem, according to wikipedia there is no consensus about it - and this seems to be a variant of it, you evil bastard
May 20, 2013, 11:47:11 AM
Phew. *wipes brow* Good for me, it was my badly-thought out flip on the Monty Hall Problem
edit:^^^
edit:^^^
Doesn't the Monty Hall problem involve Monty Hall? (Meaning that the actions Monty Hall does take are influenced by your choice, if you have chosen the car first hand he has two goats to choose from but if you choose a goat first he has only one goat to reveal)
I'm fairly certain this is a different problem, and I am almost certain there is a name for it already....
Yes and no -- yes it's a different problem, hence "badly thought out flip." What's the name?
May 20, 2013, 11:41:05 AM
Are the bots keeping it stable?
They're using what's called an anti-volume.
When anyone is trying to make a trade, they cancel it out!
May 20, 2013, 11:40:26 AM
Phew. *wipes brow* Good for me, it was my badly-thought out flip on the Monty Hall Problem
edit:^^^
edit:^^^
Doesn't the Monty Hall problem involve Monty Hall? (Meaning that the actions Monty Hall does take are influenced by your choice, if you have chosen the car first hand he has two goats to choose from but if you choose a goat first he has only one goat to reveal)
I'm fairly certain this is a different problem, and I am almost certain there is a name for it already....
May 20, 2013, 11:39:33 AM
Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.
Envelopes full of cash? I'll have some if you're offering, lol. Maybe I should become an MP, there's plenty of brown envelopes stuffed full of money to be had that way.
May 20, 2013, 11:36:58 AM
BTC prices are so boring these days 
Are the bots keeping it stable? Conference insiders?
Are the bots keeping it stable? Conference insiders?
May 20, 2013, 11:31:54 AM
Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.
And if you're offered a choice to swap again? Swap/not swap -- same deal as above?
That depends which envelope you got and if you can swap in for the remaining envelopes, if they are just the three envelopes and you aren't allowed to look you shouldn't swap.
No, you can't look & no, the envelopes will contain double/half of your envelope. At what point do you get out?
Well, in this case it's best to swap again over and over. I'm too lazy for a proof though.
Phew. *wipes brow* Good for me, it was my badly-thought out flip on the Monty Hall Problem
edit:^^^
May 20, 2013, 11:29:08 AM
Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.
And if you're offered a choice to swap again? Swap/not swap -- same deal as above?
That depends which envelope you got and if you can swap in for the remaining envelopes, if they are just the three envelopes and you aren't allowed to look you shouldn't swap.
No, you can't look & no, the envelopes will contain double/half of your envelope. At what point do you get out?
Well, in this case it's best to swap again over and over. I'm too lazy for a proof though.
Does something like M = (2N+0.5N)/2 suffice?
On second thought, since there should be as many times doubling as halfing the average end result should stay the same.
May 20, 2013, 11:26:18 AM
Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.
And if you're offered a choice to swap again? Swap/not swap -- same deal as above?
That depends which envelope you got and if you can swap in for the remaining envelopes, if they are just the three envelopes and you aren't allowed to look you shouldn't swap.
No, you can't look & no, the envelopes will contain double/half of your envelope. At what point do you get out?
edit: didn't see your last line edit
May 20, 2013, 11:21:52 AM
Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.
And if you're offered a choice to swap again? Swap/not swap -- same deal as above?
That depends which envelope you got and if you can swap in for the remaining envelopes, if they are just the three envelopes and you aren't allowed to look you shouldn't swap a second time.
Bitcoin investing are best described as a gamblers fallacy, limitless gains and losses.
May 20, 2013, 11:17:20 AM
All the anti-establishment types will hate their life when Bitcoin truly becomes mainstream because then it will be governed by law and traded by banks and investment firms while it lives harmoniously alongside national fiats. Heck, it'll probably be traded on Forex.
Bitcoin replacing fiat is at least one generation away. Furthermore, if it does replace fiat it will just be the new fiat unless the powers-that-be are replaced by people with some moral integrity and beliefs in governing a country for future generations, which has approximately 0% chance of happening at the present time.
Once cryptos really become big they'll either have to come in line with society's realities or they'll be sieged relentlessly and then you can forget about widespread adoption in less than a 20 year time frame.
Bitcoin replacing fiat is at least one generation away. Furthermore, if it does replace fiat it will just be the new fiat unless the powers-that-be are replaced by people with some moral integrity and beliefs in governing a country for future generations, which has approximately 0% chance of happening at the present time.
Once cryptos really become big they'll either have to come in line with society's realities or they'll be sieged relentlessly and then you can forget about widespread adoption in less than a 20 year time frame.
May 20, 2013, 11:14:37 AM
Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.
And if you're offered a choice to swap again? Swap/not swap -- same deal as above?
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