Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 2. (Read 9456 times)
December 16, 2019, 08:42:25 PM
At .04 per kwh the S9 14th with ASICBoost is net .70 cents a day.
December 16, 2019, 05:31:54 PM
Price is falling we are down to $6880 usd.
This will hurt the s-9 miner at 4 cent power.
We could get a flat jump now -+ 1% next jump may also be in the -+1% Zone.
This will hurt the s-9 miner at 4 cent power.
We could get a flat jump now -+ 1% next jump may also be in the -+1% Zone.
December 15, 2019, 09:53:56 AM
Yeah it will come down to 1-4 cent cost per kwatts
No one is truly 0 as maintenance dead gear labor etc most likely is about 0.5- 1 cent per kwatt of gear at best.
So if you say 1 for all the bs expense and you can pay 2 cents a kwatt for the actual power this means you are a 3 cent miner.
I see a short future for bigger farms:
2024 ½ ing we go to 3.1250 reward
2028 ½ ing we go to 1.6125 reward
with segwit and lightening networks I do not see huge transaction fees per block
so in 2024 maybe we are 3.125 + 1 = 4.1250 a block
in 2028 it could be we are 1.6125 + 1 = 2.6125 a block
I think the 2028-2029 ½ ing will be critical
We now see this kind of diff chart
I could see this happening to diff after the may ½ ing
this is directly due to big farms as they cause downward pressure on price.
and we are very close to zero
No one is truly 0 as maintenance dead gear labor etc most likely is about 0.5- 1 cent per kwatt of gear at best.
So if you say 1 for all the bs expense and you can pay 2 cents a kwatt for the actual power this means you are a 3 cent miner.
I see a short future for bigger farms:
2024 ½ ing we go to 3.1250 reward
2028 ½ ing we go to 1.6125 reward
with segwit and lightening networks I do not see huge transaction fees per block
so in 2024 maybe we are 3.125 + 1 = 4.1250 a block
in 2028 it could be we are 1.6125 + 1 = 2.6125 a block
I think the 2028-2029 ½ ing will be critical
We now see this kind of diff chart
I could see this happening to diff after the may ½ ing
this is directly due to big farms as they cause downward pressure on price.
and we are very close to zero
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 608254 (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 99.8570% (1439 / 1441.06 expected, 2.06 behind)
Current Difficulty: 12876842089682.48XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 12878508054124 and 12878656721351
Next Difficulty Change: between +0.0129% and +0.0141%
Previous Retarget: December 5, 2019 at 2:39 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): Thursday at 3:06 PM (in 4d 0h 15m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest): Thursday at 3:08 PM (in 4d 0h 18m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 0h 26m 30s and 14d 0h 28m 52s
Current Pace: 99.8570% (1439 / 1441.06 expected, 2.06 behind)
Current Difficulty: 12876842089682.48XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 12878508054124 and 12878656721351
Next Difficulty Change: between +0.0129% and +0.0141%
Previous Retarget: December 5, 2019 at 2:39 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): Thursday at 3:06 PM (in 4d 0h 15m 53s)
Next Retarget (latest): Thursday at 3:08 PM (in 4d 0h 18m 15s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 0h 26m 30s and 14d 0h 28m 52s
December 13, 2019, 07:37:43 PM
China is going all-in on blockchain.
Low cost energy is the new race after the ASIC war
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1205178744287031296
Low cost energy is the new race after the ASIC war
https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1205178744287031296
Mining is highly encouraged in China now. They hope to control bitcoin by having all the miners in the country (is, under their control).
December 13, 2019, 12:17:05 AM
nice chart.
among various sites
i have three s9s. 40 th at just under five cents.
about 145 a month and they earn about 180 a month net 35.
i will run them month to month. i am paid till jan.
i have so many different miners in five separate sites i don't mind running the three s9s.
most of my gear is 65 watt or better.
i would love 💕 to see a nice long flat diff like last oct 2018 to april 2019.
it would let me do a slow build out to 2.4 ph from current 1.8ph.
once there we will decide if we 2x capacity.
among various sites
i have three s9s. 40 th at just under five cents.
about 145 a month and they earn about 180 a month net 35.
i will run them month to month. i am paid till jan.
i have so many different miners in five separate sites i don't mind running the three s9s.
most of my gear is 65 watt or better.
i would love 💕 to see a nice long flat diff like last oct 2018 to april 2019.
it would let me do a slow build out to 2.4 ph from current 1.8ph.
once there we will decide if we 2x capacity.
December 12, 2019, 09:57:23 PM
Halfway there and only 3.5 blocks ahead, looking like another small move coming again.
Might be a lot of 4 and 5 cent 90 W/th miners out there that will get shut down if profitability falls any lower.
Might be a lot of 4 and 5 cent 90 W/th miners out there that will get shut down if profitability falls any lower.
December 10, 2019, 06:33:24 PM
Note this is my alt account. I have it setup for blue lines not red.
Note Dec 2017 was the great month of btc. tiny diff huge price. big profits.
In blue from Jan 2018 to Oct 2018 represents the network playing catch up to the december profits and they over purchased and over built as shown by the Oct 2018 to May 2019 flatness. see the blue rise comes first. Give v8 some credit at seeing the article on power. and give the writer of the article as seeing that power is taking over vs gear. I see four factors :
1) coin price
2) power price
3) gear quality
4) gear quantity
these all drive the diff
you could see. the diff as number five and all five make profit but that is another thread.
the factors above are perfect world factors. they do not take into account governments interfering or powerful asic builders interfering.
see the modded chart below with some credit to my main account ,
wdnsb
last of the v8's and the link he posted to helping me refine the chart. which is last 2 years as taken from bitcoininfocharts
Note Dec 2017 was the great month of btc. tiny diff huge price. big profits.
In blue from Jan 2018 to Oct 2018 represents the network playing catch up to the december profits and they over purchased and over built as shown by the Oct 2018 to May 2019 flatness. see the blue rise comes first. Give v8 some credit at seeing the article on power. and give the writer of the article as seeing that power is taking over vs gear. I see four factors :
1) coin price
2) power price
3) gear quality
4) gear quantity
these all drive the diff
you could see. the diff as number five and all five make profit but that is another thread.
the factors above are perfect world factors. they do not take into account governments interfering or powerful asic builders interfering.
see the modded chart below with some credit to my main account ,
wdnsb
last of the v8's and the link he posted to helping me refine the chart. which is last 2 years as taken from bitcoininfocharts
December 10, 2019, 03:26:17 PM
^somewhat borne out by https://medium.com/meetbitfury/bitcoin-mining-and-electricity-price-a-new-paradigm-b65ff46d7e96
George Kikvadze's latest
George Kikvadze's latest
Quote from: https://medium.com/meetbitfury/bitcoin-mining-and-electricity-price-a-new-paradigm-b65ff46d7e96
... a new era of bitcoin mining — an era where the price of electricity outweighs the importance of the efficiency of hardware.
December 10, 2019, 03:00:16 PM
if no 1/2 ing I would fully agree. with 1/2 ing not sure.
as 1/2 ing directly affects miners profits.
as 1/2 ing directly affects miners profits.
Totally get your point and tend to agree as well, but the wild card is that these new units remain profitable in some pretty steep "Cent per kwh", rate metrics. They're gonna be tougher to knock off the network in general. Also mining is moving rapidly into the Institutional investment focus. Profit margin expectations will continue to shrink, as greater scale rules the day. Then of course an explosive rally alleviates the Diff pressure but as always serves to bring more miners flooding in. It's a race to the bottom to be sure. But what business out there isn't these days. Big money gobbles up the little money in the style of Walmart and Amazon et al.
December 10, 2019, 02:34:55 PM
as 1/2 ing directly affects miners profits.
The halving effect depends very much on the price, we are 50% down from last high in price of 14k , technically the reward was halved, yet hashrate is kind of flat and tend to go higher , which means if by halving, price is above 14k , profitability will be the same as of today , so if hypothetically bitcoin price reaches say 14k-20k around the halving , then Epochjump's guess won't be far-fetched and difficulty could easily double even before the end of 2020.
if however price stays around these levels or go any lower , my exception is that hashrate will stay flat all the way to halving as new efficient gears will replace the old once and nothing actually does change.
December 10, 2019, 12:02:33 PM
if no 1/2 ing I would fully agree. with 1/2 ing not sure.
as 1/2 ing directly affects miners profits.
as 1/2 ing directly affects miners profits.
December 10, 2019, 11:47:04 AM
.....yet the overall trajectory is sharply higher. Look at those rises in percentages. Pretty astonishing. By virtue of those graphs, Diff could double by late 2020 ish.
December 10, 2019, 09:22:53 AM
wndsnb has a good point I altered his chart from bitinfocarts.com just a bit to show what has happened from Oct 2018 to Dec 2019
This current extended flat spot is due to price drops and fear of ½ ing
the one from October to may was due to price drop this was the one that was called by my first thread last oct 2018
the rise from May to Oct was due to price rise price moved in april and peaked in July IIRC
This current extended flat spot is due to price drops and fear of ½ ing
the one from October to may was due to price drop this was the one that was called by my first thread last oct 2018
the rise from May to Oct was due to price rise price moved in april and peaked in July IIRC
December 10, 2019, 06:45:16 AM
Hashrate has been pretty much flat for nearly 3 months. The price drop caused a bunch of older gear to be shut down and also put a slow down on new miner sales. Bitmain has had a few items on their website ready to ship for several months and has been continually dropping the price. Don't think they'd be doing that if miners were flying off the shelves. Also might still be a bunch of older gear that will get shut down once profitability ticks down another notch. Can't last forever, but I'm hoping for just a bit longer...
from: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/difficulty-hashrate-btc.html#6m
from: https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/difficulty-hashrate-btc.html#6m
December 09, 2019, 08:24:17 PM
Here comes the "BOOM". Ready or not...
Well you have to think that. microbt promised a lot of miners this month and next month. I think 20eh worth. Bitmain seems to be releasing a lot. Canaan is shipping. as is innosilicon.
Plus many small time builders.
we are still under 13.0 t and under 100eh which is impressive.
price is steady at 7300-7600 range.
1th of BTC earns 14.03 cents
100 th earns 14.03 dollars.
2 s17 pro do 100 th
use 3900 watts which is 94 kwatts
so 2 s17 pro at
cost------------
10 cents = 9.40 -- 14.03 earnings $4.63 profit x 156 days to ½ ing = $722.28
9 cents = 8.46 -- 14.03 " $5.57 profit
8 cents = 7.52 -- 14.03 " $6.51 profit x 156 days to ½ ing = $1015.56
7 cents = 6.58 -- 14.03 " $7.45 profit
6 cents = 5.64 -- 14.03 " $8.39 profit x 156 days to ½ ing = $1308.84
5 cents = 4.70 -- 14.03 " $9.33 profit
4 cents = 3.76 -- 14.03 " $10.27 profit
3 cents = 2.82 -- 14.03 " $11.21 profit x 156 days to ½ ing = $1748.76
2 cents = 1.88 -- 14.03 " $12.17 profit
1 cents = .94 -- 14.03 " $13.13 profit x 156 days to ½ ing = $2048.28
so I am thinking if the most efficient gear is not close to roi at ½ ing it could be slowing sales somewhat.
December 09, 2019, 06:02:42 PM
Here comes the "BOOM". Ready or not...
December 09, 2019, 09:08:04 AM
After a few days this jump is at
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 607379 (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 103.9135% (564 / 542.76 expected, 21.24 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 12876842089682.48XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 13140385713678 and 13436810402646
Next Difficulty Change: between +2.0466% and +4.3486%
Previous Retarget: last Thursday at 2:39 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): December 19, 2019 at 2:00 AM (in 9d 16h 53m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest): December 19, 2019 at 8:34 AM (in 9d 23h 27m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 11h 20m 45s and 13d 17h 54m 36s
Current Pace: 103.9135% (564 / 542.76 expected, 21.24 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 12876842089682.48XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 13140385713678 and 13436810402646
Next Difficulty Change: between +2.0466% and +4.3486%
Previous Retarget: last Thursday at 2:39 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): December 19, 2019 at 2:00 AM (in 9d 16h 53m 9s)
Next Retarget (latest): December 19, 2019 at 8:34 AM (in 9d 23h 27m 0s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 11h 20m 45s and 13d 17h 54m 36s
December 07, 2019, 12:02:12 PM
Yes they should deliver over 20eh of gear in Dec and Jan
the ceo made this claim.
if true it was based on m20 and m20s not m30 or m30s.
the ceo made this claim.
if true it was based on m20 and m20s not m30 or m30s.
December 07, 2019, 10:44:25 AM
I just saw that yesterday Phil. Wow...I'm not familiar with the Whatsminer production capacity. Do they make and sell enough Miners to make a mark on BTC diff movements?
December 06, 2019, 11:03:06 PM
Yeah whatsminer is shipping a lot of gear in Jan.
They also are making a m30s doing 88th and 3350 watts. a true monster.
They also are making a m30s doing 88th and 3350 watts. a true monster.
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