Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 7. (Read 9458 times)

Diff going down, gear price dropping, BTC price increasing... I'm thinking the S9 offloading won't hold off the coming hashpower dump into the market for very long.

I think most likely it will end at -5.8% to -6.4%.

BTW  bitmain has dropped prices to under 2000 for the s17pro.

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Went in the other direction over night.  We are now -7.4%

nice surprise

Unfortunately it's dong a slow creep back up -7 to - 6.9 now. A full percent off it's lows.

24 hours later we are still floating near -7%


a very valuable  fact :    if  you were  at 1ph  at the start of this jump   coins were 7,440

that one ph earned 1000 x 0.000018 =  0.0180 btc worth:

 133.92 a  day using 7,440 as the price
 it is now
 167.40 a day using  9,300 as the price

if we do -6% diff 1 ph will earn  0.000018/.94 =  0.00001915 a day  or 0.01915 btc a day which is  178.09 a day

178.09 vs 133.92 is 44.17 a day extra  or a new s17pro around every 50 days

Side note I used a 'very valuable fact'  as an Homage to the

diff website    FUN FACT:  which comes after the info

Edit 257 blocks left.

If you buy 3 s9k for 3 x 138 = 414.00 shipping is  264 price total is 678.  Fedex would want 192 to ship.

No trump tax,but about 229 a unit.

fedex would want 192 to ship three so 414+192 = 606. and if bitmain wiuld issue my promised two 57 dollar coupons i would be three units for 492 shipped to my door.

you can find cheaper used ones. Still very cheap.

we have 408 blocks to go this jump so it is pretty certain we will drop in diff.  coin price crested near 9450 today.

I would love to see a 6.5% drop and coins move to 10k.

But after Trump tax and shipping this unit hits your USA doorstep at roughly $225.00 with shipping. Even at my very low per kwh rate its a 6.5 month payback. So in reality you will likely only have 15 Days to mine this at a net profit before the halving. Pretty much on par with the 1000's and 1000's 0f other S9's for sale out there. This is a powerful statement about the overall demand of ASIC currently. If i was one of these " Re-Sellers" with a buttload of 7nm gear in my warehouse and on its way, I'd be shitting bricks. Those bastards are going to get wrecked. I love seeing it. S-17 53 TH Pro for $2600.00?!?!?! LMAO!! I'll buy them for less than half that in the next 6 months.

These are still pretty good numbers we may go to  -6 or -7   with a late rush of hash.

Bitmain dropped the s9k down to 138 usd today the lowest price ever for an s9 of any kind.

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020191104134412536RhCNqH8G0672

3 of these are well under the trump tax and will get you 42th.
They are only good for a free power guy.

my gut tells me if your host can stay at 215 to 225 volts the psu should be fine.

if the place has good cooling you will be fine.  we heard complaints early on these psus.  but not too many lately i suspect the psus have been improved.

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Gear drives price hmmm could be.  Price drives gear hmmm could be.

I think when one builder gets a clearly superior piece of gear it has more effect on all builders. It stops asic builder price wars.  the s-5 was a close match to the spondollies sp-10 when this happened we had a gear price war.  the companies flooded the market and price crashed out in Jan of  2015 i think 🤔 i have the right month and year. coins were as low as 200.

Right now the s17 pro is clearly  the most effiecnt  gear on the market. it was as low as 1650 in april when price of coin was about 4500. it could most likely be dropped to 1200 and sold at a profit by bitmain.
so right now no company is going to challenge bitmain in a price war.
this means coins wont be driven down by a flood of cheap gear in near future.

i do see the real question to ask for a guy like me is when do i fold my mining and hold.

i think 💭 i could have to stop mining ⛏ due to lack of enough cheap power.  i realistically wont go past 400-500kwatts.    of which 1/4 would be mine so 100 to 125 kwatts. of free power.

if all i owned was s17pros i would have 60 as my max  running on low giving me 2.4 or 2.5 ph. essentially free to run.  this would be the best possible case.

at this moment i have 1050/4 = 262th  runs at no cost . i can do nothing and just collect 262 x 0.000018 x 9200 . about 43 usd a day
it is tempting to stop growing. just collect and maintain what i earn.

we do have 200 th coming in next 35 days.  that is 1250/4 = 312 th about 52 usd a day.  for my share.

we are not tiny but we are small with a very good power deal.  my fear is growing from the gear we have to a point that is not practical. i am not sure 🤔 what to do.

we just went two hours without a block. pretty hard to do that.

I suspect the real issue is just operating temperature. If you can keep the chip temperatures in the same range, I doubt there will be an increase in failure rate. These S17 pros are hosted way, way, way up north. The average high temperature during the hottest month of the year is only 67 deg F. I'll see what my host says, but I bet they don't see much higher failure rates when running turbo vs normal.

I'll probably just go with my default bullish stance and just run turbo, and only pull back to normal or low power when all hope has been lost...

I agree that mining is well on its way to only large Commercial players. Just like almost every business in today's society it's all about " go big or go home". Just like Amazon gobbling up all the small players, so to will commercial mining go. The mining operation will have to make less and less on larger and larger scale. I believe this process is accelerating as we speak. Good news is, many of these large entities lack experience. They think just because they have fat bank rolls they can be the biggest and the baddest. Nothing could be further from the truth. Building out a large commercial mining operation is far from easy. Without practical experience these clowns will make their mistakes in grand fashion. Many have failed and many more will fail. Those who start from the ground up, make their mistakes when they are small and build their businesses on solid foundation and experience will survive.

I don't believe for one second that price follows hashing power. Most the time it is the opposite. I will say that BTC has a overall upward trajectory. I believe this is due to it's anti-inflationary component of "limited supply". Not the prevailing hash rate.

I am not a miner. I'm a holder since 2013. However, I am curious your take on bitcoin mining heading for an industrial age where governments, power companies and other large organizations start to build mega mines around wholesale energy pricing. Some think this will lead to a 50-100x fold in hashrate and a corresponding 50-100x in price as mining ultimately drives price (in some theories).

yeah for me turbo is better as 50-50 split is our deal.

the downside of turbo is gear burn out.

we run the two m20s and one m21s full speed.

we run the 8 m10s full speed. they have lost 4 boards of 24.

but the reality is one m10 was a dog. the other seven have 20 of 21 good boards.

so the whatsminer gear has been pretty good at full speed.

we have

 1 s17pro
 1 t17
 1 s15
 1 t15.  all on standard speed since april.

we just got more s17s

1 s17
5 s17 pro

have not decided what,speeds to use.

still 8% drop coming in four days.  it would be nice to get that and have a price rally to the 12k level.

Yeah, 12.7T sounds great to me right now.

Have some S17 pro 50T coming online in the next couple days. Need to decide normal vs turbo. Right now with my hosting fee for these (7.3c/kWh) turbo has a slight advantage. Break-even diff at $9200 between normal and turbo is 13.8T.

Still over -7.5%  can't complain.  About 4 days to go.

Okay....I'm a believer! Shut those turbines off!! LOL. Maybe this is why Bitmain is moving to Rockdale TX.

-8%  is nice.  Plus we are adding 200th.    so the 1100th goes to 1300th  toss in the 8%   and we gain about 100th for 2 weeks

Too much water can result in hydro plants reducing output, like in 2017.


and too little

Never been to China, F'd up my only chance so far. I've heard about the rainy season stuff for as long as I've been mining, and it seems to be pretty much Canon. Dams and reservoirs are built with a range of rainfall in mind, not necessarily meant to handle the large influxes. So if you are trying to hold back to much to only meet demand with the turbines, you get flooding and possibly damage. I live in an area that produces a large amount of hydroelectric power, and while not every year, when there is a larger than normal snowfall, or a quick thaw we experience flooding and go over capacity in floodways and reservoirs. One benefit we have is agreements to sell our power off to other regions, which means no sweet power deals for us locals, or really much benefit to us generally. You are right about how Dams work in general. The issue is when built what were they expecting for capacity.

On that note I like that we are still hovering around this ~-8 adjustment. If that holds true I'll be a very happy home heater.

I guess my point is that the dams regulate the flow/supply. Maybe I'm wrong but I've never seen this reasoning even mentioned before.

But if storage is full they have to decrease and give out free or very cheap electricity (oversupply).

That usually happens in rain seasons.