Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 9. (Read 9458 times)
October 23, 2019, 04:41:06 PM
Can you guys comment what the latest mining cost for 1 BTC with a s9 and s17 pro is at 1 to 10 cent/kwh?
October 22, 2019, 08:45:17 AM
Yeah most likely the large farms are not pulling s9s at the moment. They are adding new gear. They will do this until three days into next jump. Then start pulling s9s. Do that for the middle eight days of the epoch .stop pulling the end two or three days. So ( 2-3 days add new) ( eight days pull s9) ( 2 or 3 days add new).
October 22, 2019, 08:36:36 AM
It seems to be cyclical in the short term, so it could pull back a bit. I'll be optimistic and predict we'll end up around +2.5%, which isn't too bad.
If I remember correctly though, on the last diff change it spiked up like this right before as well and held high for a while, which moved us from under 1% to around 2%.
If I remember correctly though, on the last diff change it spiked up like this right before as well and held high for a while, which moved us from under 1% to around 2%.
October 22, 2019, 08:34:38 AM
We are now plus 60 blocks so a.gain of 10 blocks in 12 hours. 290 blocks to go.
October 22, 2019, 08:26:39 AM
I'm guessing a big stiff one up the dookie.
October 21, 2019, 08:19:29 PM
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Next Difficulty: between 13377515017108 and 13496907498053
Next Difficulty : between +2.99% and + 3.05%
Next Difficulty : between +2.99% and + 3.05%
at the beginning of today we were plus 30 blocks. We are now plus 50 blocks so we had a very strong day of 164 blocks vs 144 blocks. We will see what the next two days gives us.
October 15, 2019, 08:53:48 AM
I found this article.
https://www.coindesk.com/next-bitcoin-halving-could-squeeze-out-retail-miners-but-jurys-split-on-price
My take away is what I bolded. This mean to me 4-6 cent mining will be the norm. We are all seeing the 2900-3500 watt gear from most builders. This simply puts mining in the hands of larger places.
I checked price today it is 8300 source = https://www.coinbase.com/price
I checked the diff it is at 102% and 732 blocks made vs 718 should be 0% source = https://diff.cryptothis.com/
As noted on some other post bitmain sold out the s17+ the t17+ and the s17 53th so big players are buying up gear.
https://www.coindesk.com/next-bitcoin-halving-could-squeeze-out-retail-miners-but-jurys-split-on-price
Quote from: https://www.coindesk.com/next-bitcoin-halving-could-squeeze-out-retail-miners-but-jurys-split-on-price
[...]
“The market is moving towards the industrial mining, and there won’t be hype like it used to be anymore. There are significantly less crypto enthusiasts on the market now.”
“The market is moving towards the industrial mining, and there won’t be hype like it used to be anymore. There are significantly less crypto enthusiasts on the market now.”
My take away is what I bolded. This mean to me 4-6 cent mining will be the norm. We are all seeing the 2900-3500 watt gear from most builders. This simply puts mining in the hands of larger places.
I checked price today it is 8300 source = https://www.coinbase.com/price
I checked the diff it is at 102% and 732 blocks made vs 718 should be 0% source = https://diff.cryptothis.com/
As noted on some other post bitmain sold out the s17+ the t17+ and the s17 53th so big players are buying up gear.
October 12, 2019, 07:25:17 AM
without factoring in the newer generation gear that isn't even switched on yet these jumps are insane...we heading @least double current estimate within next 3 months. becoming a game of diminishing return unless btc price doesn't correlate.
No since that would be 26t diff. It would be 186eh and a complete disregard to the 50-60eh in older gear.
I estimate 186eh to be a no go but that 126-136eh in Feb to be very possible.
October 12, 2019, 02:43:05 AM
without factoring in the newer generation gear that isn't even switched on yet these jumps are insane...we heading @least double current estimate within next 3 months. becoming a game of diminishing return unless btc price doesn't correlate.
October 11, 2019, 10:48:40 PM
Yeah buying s9's used is not going to happen much at the current numbers.
October 11, 2019, 10:01:58 PM
I will admit to buying T17 40th as well. not many. On an ROI metric by current numbers they are the only offerings that make sense. I also have a number of T17 38 th and I love them. they've been bomb proof. Not so much for the S17 56 th and the earlier S15 28 th. The one potential silver lining to the S9 saga may be that of the 10's of thousands that are currently for sale, not many are selling and they are still plugged in awaiting buyers. If those buyers don't materialize, we could actually see a net hash drop for a couple Epochs. Fingers crossed.
October 11, 2019, 04:29:42 PM
Most of the miners on the web site are limited to 2 units per user, so it seems like the quantity available is limited. I think the T17 40th and s9s are the only ones shipping before Dec. that don't have a 2 unit limit.
It doesn't look like they've sold out of anything, so maybe people are not too eager to buy after the drop in BTC price.
I think for most people the #s just don't look good enough to pay the prices they are asking unless you assume BTC is going to jump to $15k by early next year.
It doesn't look like they've sold out of anything, so maybe people are not too eager to buy after the drop in BTC price.
I think for most people the #s just don't look good enough to pay the prices they are asking unless you assume BTC is going to jump to $15k by early next year.
I did one unit the other day.
I would have purchased 1 more unit but they promised me coupons in an email that never were sent.
So for now I wait.
October 11, 2019, 03:16:35 PM
Most of the miners on the web site are limited to 2 units per user, so it seems like the quantity available is limited. I think the T17 40th and s9s are the only ones shipping before Dec. that don't have a 2 unit limit.
It doesn't look like they've sold out of anything, so maybe people are not too eager to buy after the drop in BTC price.
I think for most people the #s just don't look good enough to pay the prices they are asking unless you assume BTC is going to jump to $15k by early next year.
It doesn't look like they've sold out of anything, so maybe people are not too eager to buy after the drop in BTC price.
I think for most people the #s just don't look good enough to pay the prices they are asking unless you assume BTC is going to jump to $15k by early next year.
October 11, 2019, 02:28:25 PM
then you are like me you don’t need to rush your build up.
October 11, 2019, 02:14:25 PM
Well you are commercial 20ph correct? At this point you most likely should not add much gear.
I don’t know your efficiency mix of gear.
I don’t know your power cost.
I don’t know your building cost.
I don’t know if you have excess power.
I do know that unless you are all s17 you can improve your efficiency.
I do know you can do a s17 and then wait a while.
What we as miners don’t know is future price.
I do know we had 20000 down to 3100 up to 13500 down to 7800 up to 8500.
I do know for me I am earning some money 💰 and folding back some of the coin is okay.
But folding back too much coin is a killer.
I don’t know your efficiency mix of gear.
I don’t know your power cost.
I don’t know your building cost.
I don’t know if you have excess power.
I do know that unless you are all s17 you can improve your efficiency.
I do know you can do a s17 and then wait a while.
What we as miners don’t know is future price.
I do know we had 20000 down to 3100 up to 13500 down to 7800 up to 8500.
I do know for me I am earning some money 💰 and folding back some of the coin is okay.
But folding back too much coin is a killer.
-About 50/50 16nm and 7 nm
- Power cost about .043
- rent is $1500.00 ( I do all my own builds and work. Save a ton.) I buy my Switch Gear used.
- I'm starting another project of 20 MW at .034 in the next 2-4 months.
I just remember this vividly. Last time Bitmain dumped on the market like this it was bedlum. Look at their page today. ALL their machines are available, PLUS the two new monsters. Ressellers are actually starting to edge price down. It's coming. Wait these buggers out if you can. SHA 256 ASIC 7NM prices are coming down, mark my words.
October 11, 2019, 08:48:40 AM
Well It is more or less based on last october we were near 57eh. So that number of 50-60 as s-9's should read s9 or less efficient gear.
Meaning the:
A841 A851 from Avalon Avalon used to claim 20 % of the network When the s9 was on top say early 2018
T1 from innosilicon
even the a721 and a741
and bitfury along with ebang
All were combining to make that 57 eh peak in october.
they may have been 95 to 115 watts a th most of this gear is getting turned off at the next jump.
The next jump may be huge 15- 25% Looks possible this means many people will power off that s9 style gear once that diff jumps from 13 to 16th.
We are looking at a diff of 15-17 in 12 days.
The 14th s-9 earns 1.84 a day at a diff of 16.2 it burns 32 kwatts
1.84 - 0.32 = 1.52 profit at 1 cent power
1.84 - 0.64 = 1.20 profit at 2 cent power
1.84 - 0.96 = 0.88 profit at 3 cent power
1.84 - 1.28 = 0.56 profit at 4 cent power
1.84 - 1.60 = 0.34 profit at 5 cent power
1.84 - 1.92 = 0.08 loss at 6 cent power
So we get a big jump 15-24% in 12 days
we get a drop off in 2 weeks after that.
Meaning the:
A841 A851 from Avalon Avalon used to claim 20 % of the network When the s9 was on top say early 2018
T1 from innosilicon
even the a721 and a741
and bitfury along with ebang
All were combining to make that 57 eh peak in october.
they may have been 95 to 115 watts a th most of this gear is getting turned off at the next jump.
The next jump may be huge 15- 25% Looks possible this means many people will power off that s9 style gear once that diff jumps from 13 to 16th.
We are looking at a diff of 15-17 in 12 days.
The 14th s-9 earns 1.84 a day at a diff of 16.2 it burns 32 kwatts
1.84 - 0.32 = 1.52 profit at 1 cent power
1.84 - 0.64 = 1.20 profit at 2 cent power
1.84 - 0.96 = 0.88 profit at 3 cent power
1.84 - 1.28 = 0.56 profit at 4 cent power
1.84 - 1.60 = 0.34 profit at 5 cent power
1.84 - 1.92 = 0.08 loss at 6 cent power
So we get a big jump 15-24% in 12 days
we get a drop off in 2 weeks after that.
October 11, 2019, 06:46:59 AM
[...]
If I am reading you correctly, I want to pick up on one thing. I read you to be saying there are between 50 and 60 exa worth of S9. At 55exa this is 4 million units of S9. I think this is incorrect, I would *guess* there was never more than 3 million S9 made, whilst I would say with a great conviction I think there is just over maybe 2 million S9 running in total. Thoughts anyone?
October 11, 2019, 04:00:18 AM
So we went +1.95 which is nice and reasonable. I'd love if that trend continued but I'm not holding my breath. Who knows though to many facilities with real nice low power rates, and a lot of dense hardware out there.
This is like a nightshift nightmare though "between +2.5744% and +23.2293%" . Insanely early to be accepting the high end of that, but that is a good run of lucky blocks already +26 I believe from expected. Hoping that as time stretches on it becomes less scary and begins to even out. Although we did come from behind and wind up positive this last go around so we may still be riding that wave forward.
This is like a nightshift nightmare though "between +2.5744% and +23.2293%" . Insanely early to be accepting the high end of that, but that is a good run of lucky blocks already +26 I believe from expected. Hoping that as time stretches on it becomes less scary and begins to even out. Although we did come from behind and wind up positive this last go around so we may still be riding that wave forward.
October 10, 2019, 07:13:37 PM
Well you are commercial 20ph correct? At this point you most likely should not add much gear.
I don’t know your efficiency mix of gear.
I don’t know your power cost.
I don’t know your building cost.
I don’t know if you have excess power.
I do know that unless you are all s17 you can improve your efficiency.
I do know you can do a s17 and then wait a while.
What we as miners don’t know is future price.
I do know we had 20000 down to 3100 up to 13500 down to 7800 up to 8500.
I do know for me I am earning some money 💰 and folding back some of the coin is okay.
But folding back too much coin is a killer.
I don’t know your efficiency mix of gear.
I don’t know your power cost.
I don’t know your building cost.
I don’t know if you have excess power.
I do know that unless you are all s17 you can improve your efficiency.
I do know you can do a s17 and then wait a while.
What we as miners don’t know is future price.
I do know we had 20000 down to 3100 up to 13500 down to 7800 up to 8500.
I do know for me I am earning some money 💰 and folding back some of the coin is okay.
But folding back too much coin is a killer.
October 10, 2019, 06:27:00 PM
I do really appreciate your analysis. In order to just offset these Epoch Jumps, we need a 30-40% price increase in the underlying asset. Is it possible...? Of course. But I can't run a commercial level mining operation on speculation, guess and conjecture. Fundamentally, there is no reason to see a dramatic rise in BTC price. It's the same BTC we've all been living with for the last 3-4 years. No new "use cases" or "adoption". I'm confident this will happen but it's not now. In addition we have the "house" Bitmain et al that have a very highly leveraged leg up on us miners. They're going all in. Flooding the market with massive hashing power. Diff has nowhere to go but up. For me, no way I'm paying current metrics that equal 18 Months ROI. Regardless of interest, or perks and kickers, by the time that unit gets plugged in, it likely going to be 24 months ROI or more. You'll need $20k BTC just to make up for the Epoch Jumps. I really hope I'm wrong...but I'm not.
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