Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 6. (Read 9455 times)

going sideways just a bit.

but here goes.

i was hobby miner i liked the concept of mining for anyone with a pc and a gpu.


i tried to get going in 2011 most people were not helpful.

i was busy modding and upgrading mac minis as an ebay business i would sell fifty to a hundred of them a year.

i finally got started with bitminter  in 2012.  and it has been a fun ride.

as for epochjump he could be sitting with a strong hand.  he mentioned 20ph in gear.

if it is paid off and he has 2-4 cent power he can have endless variations of hedges and calls.

i have 1 ph i own it Fifty fifty.  my share of coins mined are 25%.

i have 500th to manage . my fee is 5%.

this means i have 275th free and clear mining at no cost.

it allows me a lot of moves. way too long to list.

if epochjump has 20ph. he has lots of moves and postions.

my biggest risks are fire earthquake theft of the gear.  i do the diff anyalsis to aid people in there decision to buy gear or sell gear.

but even if i make fifty perfect diff calls in a row.  ratio of coin cash gear debt is move important.
since you can hedge swings in prices.

i am short cash to buy gear at this moment. so i will focus on mine and hold for a month.

giving me cash to add cheap gear if there is a crash.

You understand that the difficulty adjustment is accomplished every 2016 blocks (two weeks) which likely aligns mining incentives/costs and surely would shake out weak-handed miners, but not all of them.

Let's say that bitcoin prices went below $1,000 and stayed there for 2 years or longer.  Difficulty is going to adjust downward based on a likelihood that a lot of miners are going to leave the bitcoin mining scene, but some are going to stay.

In other words, NOT all miners are going to go broke under a wide variety of likely and even unlikely scenarios.  They would have to adjust to such hypothetical extremes though, and some would not be able to sustain either their finances or their psychology under such hypothetical extremes because they may have NOT adequately prepared for something so great as the scenario that I suggested - or even imagining a worse case scenario than the one that I did.

abs correct - and he would lost everything because the jump was huge.


I agree 100% with above.
Epochjump - you are totally underestimating speculators - i will be happy if other big miners think like you. Real speculators dont care about LTC - litecoin leads nothing - bitcoin leads everything. After BTC halving bitcoin will rise. This is very easy to predict - for me the real problem is to predict what will happen with mining difficulty - i think both price and diff will rise fast - the real question - what will rise faster - if price of BTC rise faster than diff - this means you better buy quipment with better price per TH - if diff rise faster than bitcoin price - this means better to buy power efficient asics - but if diff rise too fast compared to price or if price drops then - all miners will be broke.
But i think most miners think like Epochjump so they will not buy a lot of new asics and will not rise diff too much if/when bitcoin price rise.

It's called "yield enhancement". It adds 2-3% per month to our returns. If you are a commercial miner as we are, you are a natural long. Getting called out $1,000.00 above my long price with added $500-$600 extrinsic premium, twice a month is pennies to you?? You must be a very rich person. Good for you. I've been trading options and derivatives for over 3 decades. I'm pretty sure I know what I'm doing. I really don't think you have the slightest knowledge of this arena. Ar least that would seem to be the case based on your very ill informed post.

He also mines thus  the reason for trading in the coin.

back on point  we have drifted to  103%   1128 blocks made instead of 1094

if we crawl upwards like this  we will crack that 13.0t diff easy.

This is too be expected since bitmain  is selling s17pro 53th  for 1599  shipping from malaysia.

ie no trump tax.  If you have a coupon  getting a s17pro for under 1400 is possible.

https://shop.bitmain.com/product/detail?pid=00020191114125522239nu0MGH7e067D

this  piece of gear should be  one of your indicators as a miner or trader.

My latest purchase was for 1350 after coupon it will be subject to about 35 tax  so I got it for 1385.00

this does 44th at 36 watts only 1600 watts used on low speed.  it is like running 3 s9's  which do about 43th and pull 3900 watts.

this is a huge jump and or improvement.

The longer it stays on sale means multiple things and or possibilities.

A) selling like mad
B) selling slowly
C) diff jump will prove out  a or b
D) imagine it is selling well and bitmain has tons of them it kills all gear at the ½ ing
E) there is a strong chance only 40 watt a th gear is worth using in May of 2020

if you are happy collecting pennies on the dollar by writing calls, then you might want to consider trading something else.
BTW if the above is even true, your calls would have been already exercised during the 7400-10300 pump.

Still under 1% about a week to go.

bitmain dropped the s17 pro to 1599 which means the biggest coupon you can use is about 480

so 1599-480= 1119+120= 1239 it is being built and shipped from malaysia

so trump tax is only 40 bucks.  1279 for an s17 pro . 

if they have 100000 to sell. they will sell them out at that price.

this will really hurt resellers.


and it is about 5300000th or 5300ph or 5.3eh or 4-5% of the network.


it they list the s17pro for weeks and it does not sell out it will be a sharp rise in diff as these are shipping quickly.  if it does not sell out at 1599 they can drop it again.

Or companies, anyone with a stake in a large gear producer had more than enough incentive to manipulate the market and drive up price of coin to in turn drive up price of hardware. Stock sells out at 2-3X what you could get prior to that, with very lengthy lead times involved. Everything cools off coins drop back to a less driven/manipulated level yet the "contract" for purchase was still in place.
Either way on that no one knows what's going to happen tomorrow, or who's going to swing their bag hardest or for what reason. It's something I've been thinking about a lot for the last year. I still expect the last big price run to happen in mid-December, I've got some coin I have to sell and that's when I'm looking to do it.

On to the diff, I'm pumped to see it looking neutral, with a long time to go, but this was sort of expected. Yo-yoing around each period as people upgrade, and remove the losers from their fleet. I am curious know more than ever as to what sort of production numbers manufacturers are using looking into the halving. With things looking relatively calm for now, I don't see many people looking to upgrade to higher hash/more efficient machines until there are significant drops in price or network difficulty improving ROI models.

On that note I'm about to shock the network Diff with my remaining 4 741's  , maxing out my basement this week, after my final +5C day. I'm thinking the weather guy has it wrong but just in case I don't feel like having to shut down a bunch of gear as it overheats my house.

Well it is Bitcointalk and it is the Bitcoin section.   But The only coin with any real correlation to BTC is LTC  (I am disregarding all BTC forks BCH ,BSV)

  As  miner  and a gear reseller.. I look at POW coins and judge them for what they are.  A means to turn power into coins. I can write for hours on plusses and minuses of a coin. I have zero bias as to what is the best coin to mine. I use any tool I can think of to predict future trends in mining coins.

 I have been  into BTC mining.
 I have been into GPU/Altcoin mining.
 I have been into LTC mining.

I determine my ratios of BTC gear --LTC gear-- Gpu gear on a weekly basis.

If you look at the 2016 btc  ½ ing
if you look at the 2019 ltc ½ ing there are some correlations.

We also have a 2020 BCH ½ ing and the return to bitmain of its older ceo a guy that chased BCH like a mofo  in an effort to make BCH king.

So there are correlations with the coins that have the most asic mining gear.

   Does it mean I figured them out no it does not.
 Does it mean epochjump them out no it does not.

I always tell buysolar  the wealth of any coin is small enough that a few billionaires can fuck with price anytime they want to.

Traders have charts  that show patterns that are supposed to  mean uptick or down tick in price..

 3 rich people can look at those charts on any coin  and fuck with the chart  by large shorts buys sells etc.

This is why I most mine and seldom trade. As low cost power is an edge  I can get mining.  While I an not get the same edge trading.

So me  I think  BTC will  jump in price over 10k  before the ½ ing maybe even to 14k and I think the ½ ing will crash  shit hard. Just as LTC ½ ing did.

Panic will ensue.  I will load up on cheap cheap gear. Fill my Clifton setup on discount s17 pros.   And  BTC will slowly  get better  in late 2020.  I think 2021  fall will be a big move in price for btc abd we will break the 30k level.

But because I check ratios on my
GPU gear
LTC gear
BTC gear
CPU gear for xmr
coins held
cash held
debt for expansion

I would be okay if BTC does not do what I said.  
I would be okay if LTC ends up being the way to go.
I would be okay if BCH ends up being the way to go.
I would be okay if XMR ends up being the way to go.
I would be okay if it all crashes and burns and dies off completely.

This is because I have a lot of hedged positions. And becasue I am no longer an all or nothing guy.

IE   I basically disagree with this

First of all LTC leads nothing. 2nd, large money isn't looking to LTC for halving tea leaves. LTC has never reacted to halving as positively as Bitcoin. Third, halving creates supply shock, because there is actual underlying demand for BTC unlike LTC, which is just a way to acquire (or lose) more BTC.


And you can pull  LTC out and put in a dozen other coins. I would still disagree  with the statement.

Hell  Doge  a true shit coin mined secondary with LTC  has real values

 it is dirt cheap  to move money
 it is secure due to all the asic ltc gear.
 lastly it moves money fast.

Does this mean I have 1,000,000,000 Doge coins no I don't.

 Does it mean 10% of my holdings are in Doge yes it does.

oh back on point



not bad so far

I AM Large money. I am an Institutional trader. We are absolutely looking at the LTC halving. If you are not you're making a serious mistake. It is an extremely high correlation.


This however is correct.

I have to say I disagree 100%. First of all LTC leads nothing. 2nd, large money isn't looking to LTC for halving tea leaves. LTC has never reacted to halving as positively as Bitcoin. Third, halving creates supply shock, because there is actual underlying demand for BTC unlike LTC, which is just a way to acquire (or lose) more BTC.

Halving is not about there being less supply. Its about there being less supply to buy.

BTC is much more likely to follow a similar pattern as the last 2 times into and out of this next halving than it is to do something LTC did randomly. Which is to say we should be slightly bullish with at least one expected correction into halving, and very bullish within 3-6 months after halving which should last for 1+ years.

Yeah  you could be right that the jump to 13k  was it.  Next high won't come along for about 2 years if you are right.

As  Nov-Dec 2017 would match to  Oct-Nov 2021.

Hard to tell.  I still feel we do a strong price rally Late Jan and Feb.  I think diff limps along as we approach ½ ing.

Some  mining support numbers coming up.

Th.  Watts per TH   Daily USE --    10c......9c......... 8c .......7c........6c........5c........4c........3c

50     70   ---------- 84 kwatts      $8.40   7.56     6.72       5.88     5.04     4.20    3.36      $2.52
50     60 ----------- 72 kwatts       $7.20   6.48     5.76       5.04     4.32     3.60    2.88      $2.16
50     50 ----------- 60 kwatts       $6.00   5.40     4.80       4.20     3.60     3.00    2.40      $1.80
50     40 ----------- 48 kwatts       $4.80   4.32     3.84       3.36     2.88     2.40    1.92      $1.44
50     36 ----------- 44 kwatts       $4.40   3.96     3.52       3.08     2.64     2.20    1.76      $1.32

50 th earns about 50 x 0.00001935 btc a day or 0.0009675 btc or  $8.51 at a coin price of 8800

which means  right now a 70 watt miner is a loser at 10 cent power.

but the s17 pros  spend only $4.80  a day  earn $8.51 a day  net  $3.71 at 10 cent power this is impressive margin for now

50     40 ----------- 48 kwatts       $4.80   4.32     3.84       3.36     2.88     2.40    1.92      $1.44
50     36 ----------- 44 kwatts       $4.40   3.96     3.52       3.08     2.64     2.20    1.76      $1.32

those numbers for a s17 pro 50th  look good beyond the ½ ing but we are far off.

Note  the s17 pro  on lowest power does  36 watts a th and 40-43th   I kept all numbers in my charts at 50th

so you will need to do some simple math to get a s17 pro true yield at low setting

ie 40/50 or 80%

is
Hashrate   power used     10c       9c         8c         7c        6c         5c       4c         3c
40 th         35 kwatts     $3.50   $3.15    $2.80   $2.45   $2.10    $1.75   $1.40   $1.05

40 x 0.00001935 = 0.000774 or $6.81

My point is  the s17pro efficiency  means   a big edge come ½ ing time.

Yet it did not sell out at 1999 - a coupon.

     I have been using the LTC halving overlay as my leading indicator for the BTC/BCH halving expectations for many months. I firmly believe the run to $13k + was the "halving rally" all were anticipating. Professional traders, saw what happened in LTC and this caused to rally to occur well before the event. I think it is highly unlikely we will see any type of accelerated price escalation in BTC between now and 05/24. Those rallies we do see, will be met with extreme selling pressure. I am writing calls against my BTC positions regularly as a yield enhancement/DCA technique from now until the event. Every $300.00 in premium I collect on Buy Writes, lowers my BTC cost of ownership and brings greater returns to my bottom line. If I get "called out at higher prices I'm still happy.
     Moreover...IMHO people are attributing too much price influence on these halving events. They are well planned and they DO NOT change overall supply of BTC. There is NOT LESS BTC as a result of halvings. This pre-halving rally assumption based on "less BTC" is a complete fallacy.
     Lastly, once all the ill informed speculators get beat up as a result of buying the false assumption of less supply, they will sell at the lows JUST LIKE the LTC victims. Diff will crater and miners will be for sale at cheap prices. 2-3 months post Halving, I plan to be buying BTC and miners faster than I can get my hands on them. Personally, I see it as the single greatest opportunity in BTC in many years. Join me!! It'll be a fun ride.

Thank you I screen shot the profile page.

Back to the diff.

Last year around this time  we had price chase diff.  which is rare but does happen once in a while.

We are -2.35%  and about 300 blocks in.

Bitmain  has "unleashed the kraken"

Multiple units for sale with quick delivery and solid coupons.

yet  the gear has not sold out.

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So

2000-600+125 = 1525 for 53th at 40 watts

1082-324+110 = 868 for 42th at 55 watts

Neither one has sold out. Even with a paypal six month to pay option or a paypal 2% discount option

Pretty impressive that it has lasted.
what else is new bitmain has launched a new attack on microBT.
"the old bitmain ceo got back in charge of bitmain."

Frankly I believe   this is a real problem

and the ousted bitmain ceo is trying to get back
https://cryptoslate.com/ousted-bitmain-ceo-micree-zhan-fires-back-at-jihan-wu-looks-to-retake-the-firm/

I would like to see him get back.

To me Jihan Wu  simply does not give a fuck about BTC  and would kill the coin  in favor of BCH

I believe his message on this is clear and he is the single most important reason we are at 8850 vs 12500 or higher.

If you look at LTC  it really struggled after the 2019 ½ ing    it came back because LTC is head and shoulders above other scrypt coins.

BTC has a ready made replacement coin in BCH when this ½ ing comes.

I think a lot of investors are thinking Jihan Wu will try to make  the ½ ing of btc move his bch up.

good article on it here.

https://crazyworldofcrypto.com/2019/10/30/bitcoin-cash-bch-halving-will-be-catastrophic/

this is a lot of uncertainty at the least.

Hey Phil, I sent you two merit so your amount of merit is 1957. Check it out! Pretty cool huh?? Back on topic...Price decay nipped back about 4% of our benefit from Diff drop. Grrrr, I hate when that happens.

almost two days in and we are down five percent.

So a drop in diff to 12.67 and a drop in price the next day.

Looks like the rare price followed diff move.


early numbers are decent.

Coins dropped to 9100  diff still around -7.2

About 8-10 hours to go.

Based on the offerings and prices I'm seeing in the secondary hardware market, I'm pretty comfortable that most large farms have already done the majority of their gear swap. The remainder of the HR that is still to be shipped, is likely going into the hands of the resellers. Not getting plugged in. They are not selling much at these levels of price and Bitmain keeps sticking it up their asses by dropping prices. Like Bitmain ALWAYS does. So now, S9's aren't selling due to perceived obsolescence and the flood of super powered gear is largely in speculative, or small miner's hands. We could get a pleasant surprise here.

No,but if lucky we could have a solid Nov and Dec.

I am not the biggest miner  but 7440 to 9300 and a 7.5% drop  is a nice piece of change for the next 2 weeks.

We may jump on the:

  7th  of Nov  say 12.5 diff
21st  of Nov         
  5th of Dec
19th of Dec

If s-9's are fully cleared from  the big farms by dec 31    the diff could stay under 14 by years end.

And maybe we go over 11k by years end.

This would  be nice.