Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 4. (Read 9455 times)

Sending the gear back to China is not an option for me, i have to take full responsibility for whatever happens , but I still give it a try i guess.

phill look at this



The weekly candle closed last night, you see those wicks on the 20 moving average? it simply implies that there is a ton of hashrate coming online whenever we go to that level, not only that,  the candle closed above the 5 moving average, this shows that more gears will be coming online, I highly doubt the -2% showing on diff.cryptothis.com unless price falls back and stays around the 6k region before the next adjustment, the chart also suggests that in 2-3 weeks we will go to a new ATH as far as the network hashrate is concerned, and that will after the following adjustment.

the price chart looks the exact opposite tho, this could help keep the hashrate flat for a while, but not enough to bring it down IMO.

Flash back to stock... Send in under warranty. It's like putting nitrous in your car. If you do the right size shot your golden.

And who exactly would want to temper with their new toys? tuning an expensive gear like the S17 takes some huge balls ,Don't get me wrong, I know you know your stuff very well but , really the risk to reward ratio on that thing will not be very encouraging.

S17 pro 53th makes a little over 5$ after the power bill for those who have 0.06$ per kwh power rate, i guess most people will be happy with that for now, unless of course Bitmain themselves release that firmware since most people blindly trust Bitmain.

But hey , count me in , I will take an extra 8th on my T17 just for the sake of it.

Without spilling all my beans. Expect a S17 and T17 firmware by the end of the week. Up to 80th/s on the S17 and 60th/s on the T17. Although I would suggest going 70-75th/s on the S17 and 50th/s on the T17. But it will depend on your temps and machines. Has auto tune and all that jazz. That coin rebound was needed mid 6k was not a fun place. I mean low 7k aint fun.... Beggers can't be choosers haha.

Will go to Clifton NJ and grab an s9 or 2 or 3  monday after Thanksgivng.  I will Try the new firmware then.
Will be putting in
2x t17e
1x s17 pro
1x t17+
1x t17
2x a1066

about 350th  dropping all s9i's a bit should help me fit the  gear above.

Coins came back to 7200 from 6600.

Were you able to try that firmware to drop them into the 70w territory. I mean if coin price keeps dropping there is nothing you can do to really keep them going unless mine at loss an wait for 7k again.


Can you share that spreadsheet?

I merged my other post to this. deleted the original

coins got to 6850 today this will put pressure on all 80 to 110 watt gear.

make it 6675 this is more then 20%. drop in price since last week.

I have 3 s9's  40 x .13 = 5.20 a day x 30 = 156  cost to host = 145  an 11 dollar profit.

145 is due on nov 30th

 I will pay, but  that may wrap them up.

Seems like Bitmain is now in a price war with themselves ... lol. They are priced under their competition and they just keep lowering.

Bitmain S17 Pro 53TH,   40 W/TH is $29.55/TH, or Turbo mode 45 W/TH at about $27.50/TH,  shipping in 7 days.

Canaan 1166,                47 W/TH is $32.34/TH from Blokforge, not shipping until Feb.
Innosilicon T3+67T,        49 W/TH is $27.90/TH, shipping in 3 days.

Price is now under $7000, another Bitmain price drop coming?

Here are updated #s for $7000

oct 2018 to july 2019  is a new phenomenon.

It will occur more often due to  the cpu to gpu to asic 55nm asic 45 nm asic 28nm  from 2009 to 2016 out of the frame.

that flat spot  was 9 months.  it will happen again after ½ ing  and it will occur more often now then it used to happen.

Bear with me as my memory does remember a flat spot  that was extended

prior to the  oct 2018 to July 2019

I need to  look at your first diagram.

the other long flat spot was maybe nov 2014 39.6 g  to june 2015 47.6 g

this was due in part to the extended price war between bitmain with the s-5  and spondoolies  the sp20

both companies sold too many too cheaply overexpand the network and crashed the  price in Jan of 2015 to under 200 dollars.

network still grew from from 39.6 to 47.6  have to check the dates better (checked)

But the s-7 came around sept 2015 and changed things a lot.

I guess maybe they can make better 20 watt gear in 2021  and you would be correct.

But I think we do not move onwards and upwards like we used to do.

As requested , here is the chart



What I did was move from the monthly to the weekly time frame , so now we have more details to look at , honestly nothing has changed, and this is me using the logarithm scale which is easier on the eye as opposed to the linear, I agree that mining has moved from a hobby to business, but mining has always been incentivized/incented  by profit only , the first a few days or weeks might have been an exception, but I guess from the first day where someone could actually sell their bitcoin or get something in return for spending it, the nature of this market has changed forever, and has been this way since then all the way to "right now".

I do agree that the players now are different, block rewards has been halved twice, but the rules are the same.


But this goes against Moore's law


While we haven't  always "doubled" the efficiency every 2 years, since it took almost 3 years and some , to actually double S9 efficiency on the new S17s, Moore's law will still apply and gears will have to get better.

Also gears efficiency is not the only factor in keeping the hashrate on an upward trend, it's the miner's greed and competition, miners will settle for the lowest profit they can get, you see people are still squeezing a few cents out of their old gears, they will continue to do so, now , you get an average of 6 months to ROI and you are happy with it, 2 years back 6 months was a lot , next year or the year after people could be happy with 12 months, as long as there is profit to be made , people will keep on mining.

What will happen is this , big players / rich newbies will always pay a fortune for new efficient gear, mine with them until they are no longer profitable, those good players will ROI , the newbies won't, these gears will be sold to people who have cheaper power rates for dirt cheap, they will come back online, while again big players/ rich newbies will buy the newer gears , difficulty will keep going up, they will be forced to sell their gears, rinse and repeat.

There will always be smart players and stupid newbies who have no idea wtf they are doing, and both of these groups will keep pushing difficulty to the roof like they always do.

btw, this is the chart > https://www.tradingview.com/chart?symbol=QUANDL%3ABCHAIN%2FHRATE

Feel free to analyse it further, I would love to hear a different point of view.

It is an interesting chart nice find.

I would submit 2009 to 2016 may.  to get cut off and look at the chart since then.

my reasons would be from 2009 to 2016 mining left the stone age and reached the modern world when the s9 came out.

expand the chart  for those 42 months from may 2016 to nov 2019.

you will see more dips this way.

also only one 1/2 ing. is included since the s9 release.

one last thing is reward to tx ratio changes

with
50 coins tx fee %i is very small
25 coins tx fee % is growing
12.5 coins tx fee% is largers
6.25 coins tx fee % is more.

so my gut likes your image

my mind says. gear will not get much better

the reward to tx fee issue will case problems in the 2024 1/2 ing

I found an interesting chart on tradingview that shows the total hashrate from 2009 , and unlike the graph/chart of all other websites, this one is actually easy to understand and you can use some analysis tools to be able to predict the future.



Note the following:

- Every candle here represents one whole month of data.
- Yellow line is the 20 moving average, which is basically the average of the last 20 months.
- Green line represents 5 moving average.

My observations:

1-Hashrate  stays around the 5 moving average more than 99% of the time
2-The only time it comes near the 20 moving average is right before the end of a bear market
3-Aside from 2011 the maximum hashrate drop was on 45% and that represent only about 50% of price drop ( end of 2017, btc lost 83% of it's value, hashrate only dropped 45%
4-The hashrate drop in no.3 lasted only 2 months before starting to move higher, while price needed 14 months to start moving up
5-Hashrate never dips below the 20 moving average, not a single time

to sum up, due to the improvement of mining efficiency and miner's greed, it really doesn't matter where does the price go, both difficulty and hashrate can only go up.

As far as the current situation is concerned , the 5 moving average sits around 80EH ,  while the 20 moving average sits around  57EH , so I conclude two things :

1-  we will never ever go below 57EH again , doesn't matter where price is about to head, even a drop back to 3k or 1k won't take us below 57EH, yes many miners will go broke, it will be the end of the world for many people , but we can't dip below 57EH ever again.

2- Despite the 50% drop in price from 14k to 7k , it's very very unlikely that will close the month below 80EH , we could very much have a fast dip to 70EH but that won't last more than a few days.

so really, price drop , the halving , the news , the fud and our wishes are pretty useless here, you see how the past has been , 10 years of data is not a random thought nor a wild guess, the next 10 years will eventually have to be the same in the concept, so if you are counting on difficulty major drops, you might reconsider your options.

A lot of commercial  power worldwide is in the 3-4 cent range.

tack a penny on for overhead.  and 4-5 cent power/op cost is a decent estimate.

this means
 whatsminer m10
innosilicon t3 t50
avalon a1041
bitmain t17 are making as low as

1.60 a th monthly

so m10 is 48 a month after 5 cent power.
a1041 is 60 a month after 5:cent power cost.
t50 is 80 a month after 5 cent power cost
t17 is 64 a month after 5 cent power cost. if diff is 12.9 and coins are 7300

they seem safe enough for now.


but a strong drop in price to 6000 would wreak havoc. on s9 gear and put fear into a farm with 4 cent power plus 1 cent overhead

Seems like we may be hovering around 13T until the S9s are gone. Will be interesting to see what happens if price spikes up to the point where S9s are profitable again before the halving. Could produce a huge diff increase.

Here are some #s for various efficiencies and power costs:

BTC Price  $7,300.00
Diff           12.9700
Pool Fees   4.00%
   
Miner Efficiency (W/TH)    Break-Even Power Cost ($/kWh)
90                                    $0.0639
65                                    $0.0885
55                                    $0.1046
45                                    $0.1278
40                                    $0.1438
37                                    $0.1555

---

Power Cost    5 cents/kWh
Diff               12.9700E
Pool Fees       4.00%
      
Miner Efficiency (W/TH)      Cost to Mine 1 BTC    Profit/TH/Month
90                                     $5,711.30                 $0.91
65                                     $4,124.83                 $1.83
55                                     $3,490.24                 $2.19
45                                     $2,855.65                 $2.56
40                                     $2,538.36                 $2.74
37                                     $2,347.98                 $2.85

---

Power Cost  6 cents/kWh
Diff             12.9700 E
Pool Fees     4.00%
      
Miner Efficiency (W/TH)     Cost to Mine 1 BTC     Profit/TH/Month @$7,300.00
90                                     $6,853.56                 $0.26
65                                     $4,949.79                 $1.35
55                                     $4,188.29                 $1.79
45                                     $3,426.78                 $2.23
40                                     $3,046.03                 $2.45
37                                     $2,817.57                 $2.58

---

Miner Efficiency   65 W/TH
Diff                    12.9700   E
Pool Fees            4.00%
      
Power Cost (c/kWh)    Cost to Mine 1 BTC    Profit/TH/Month @$7,300.00
2                               $1,649.93                $3.25
3                               $2,474.90                $2.78
4                               $3,299.86                $2.30
5                               $4,124.83                $1.83
6                               $4,949.79                $1.35
7                               $5,774.76                $0.88
8                               $6,599.72                $0.40
9                               $7,424.69               -$0.07
10                             $8,249.65               -$0.55

A larger price drop to 7100



Very strong downward momentum.

Viabtc is stating 1th is earning  13.6 cents a day

so 14 x 13.6 = $1.91 a day for a s9 pre power.

an s9 uses 32kwatts a day so

$0.32    1 cent power
$0.64    2 cent power
$0.96    3 cent power
$1.28    4 cent power
$1.60    5 cent power

$1.92    6 cent power    s9 loses

when we got to this point last year  everything tanked. We are at this point and bitmain is blowing out newer gear left and right.

This next jump is critical.  It would be nice if bitmain was sold out and shut the shop down until Feb 1.

I remember last time they tried that. It didn't end well and they almost went under. An IPO for Bitmain may never happen. Their balance sheet is a nightmare of volatility. It's common when someone thinks they are bigger than the market to get crushed. Hopefully we will see Shitmain get their comeuppance.

Bitmain also stopped taking in paypal 💰 .  So they have cash 💰 to buy btc or to pay real world debt for a month or so they can now hold the btc they mine.  so liquidity of btc is a bit tighter i also think 🤔 they can buy the dip if they chose.

As of 6:18 pm EST


We are doing okay but coins are way down  I grabbed a piece of btc at 7600

They may be trying to liquidate all/most of their stock to make their books look good for the IPO.

Kept it under 13T, not bad.

Move out the gear.

A s17 pro can be made for well under 1000 usd  no one touches it.  As far as I know no one has a good 45 watt machine

and the s17 pro can do 35-37 watts on low speed.

My best gear other then the s17 pro is my pair of m20s  they are very very good the do 68 and 69 th total of 137th

they use  6700- 6800 watts.  about    48-49 watts a th

4 s17 pro on low speed do 172 th  and use 6200 watts  pretty quiet on low setting cost is 6400 and no trump tax out of malaysia

3 s17 pro on normal speed do 159th and use 6360 watts cost is 4800 and no trump tax out of malaysia

lets look at that m20s

https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m20-series/

2 units at 2510 = 5020 plus trump tax = 6250 whatttt!

https://whatsminer.net/product/2/

x units at 2100 = 4200 plus trump tax = 5000   but wait til  jan

Well at this point they can do it all they want. Works out good for me and anyone else who is at their max and just wants to earn as much of their piece as possible for now, without buying new gear. I am not buying any hardware, and can't really improve on what I have or see a need for me to upgrade any further until maybe next fall. In the mean time this just feels like a reprieve because I figured we were going to keep seeing increases from October forward.
There are people who were going to buy gear anyways regardless of the jumps because it made sense for their future, so they are in a win-win as well. It's anyone who looks at this and assumes it should stay like this for the foreseeable, and grabs gear only to see a couple double digit jumps come up, that will be hurting.

To be fair though this does seem more like it's just the ebb and flow of Difficulty at the moment. If they were really up to this I can't see why they also dropped hardware prices.