Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 8. (Read 9460 times)

Dude, I'm sorry, that garbage about the "rainy season ending in China being a factor is utter nonsense. There is this little known invention in Hydro power called a "Dam". They are really pretty ingenious. They control and store water for driving turbines. Not making fun of you, but this is exactly the kind of complete horsecrap that gets written and printed and people take it as facts. THIS is why BTC is so easily manipulated. China's engineering capabilities in Hydro - Power are second to none. They're just not this stupid.

S9 are going EOL -end of life- pretty soon. Rainy season ending in China.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-mining-power-sees-short-term-fallback-as-rainy-season-ends-in-china

BTC network at 89.41 EH/s down from 97.90 EH/s
https://btc.com/stats/diff

Phil this is exactly my strategy. I thought I needed to be in a rush to evolve my inventory 100% to 7nm. I've been closely watching the "re-sellers" listings/ These cats are FLUSH with all the new 7NM machines coming available. Whatsminers, Antminers INNO miners. 1000's of them. Look at Kaboom racks, Offords listings, Carboer etc etc.This is what I had hoped for. These Re-Sellers went all in AGAIN speculating on new gear and they can't sell it to anyone with half a brain at the prices they need to. Most of the offerings are not returning your investment for 14-18 months!! That's at todays prices in BTC and Diff. We all know what happens on or around May 24 2020. Blam. Even if I don't buy another 7nm until these machine prices crash, I'll be just fine with that. It's coming, oh believe me it's coming. These Re=Seller speculators are gonna get slaughtered. Again.THIS is why Diff is stalled out! Most of the new production that went to farms is already plugged in. The remainder is in the Re=Sellers hands. Weak hands at that.

I liked the s9 idea myself.  we grabbed 25 of them in dec-jan to start the clifton project. paid 5 grand count wires and psus.

if i was all alone in this clifton project and had just the 25 s9s. i would cash them out cheaply.

and hold cash - coin till the spring.  those s9s earned a lot for me. there would be a good chance things collapse .

If I was holding 1 btc and 8000 in profit after selling the s-9s.

hold both coins moon i score.

coins crash i can use the cash 💵 for new cheap s17 pros. and go back to mining.

I have  to think a few farms must be in this spot to make this move.

I like this analysis. High probability. I also don't think Bitmain sells out gear as much as it appears on their webpage. They pull stuff on and off regularly and mark things as "sold out" only to have then reappear as available at even a shorter delivery window at a higher price. Bitmain is a master of the "shell game". Probably a big part of their branding strategy in having all these different yet the same models and names. Mass confusion. If they really were selling out all their offerings I highly doubt we'd see any Diff drops.

We could see an exit/pause strategy for a big farm that has turned a profit.

Shut down  sell off s9's and hold coins/cash  make a move right before or after the ½ ing.

It could explain the large drop off we had this jump.

I could see a lot of larger operations having trouble securing more funding from their investors to upgrade S9s to S17s with the uncertainty of the halving looming.

For the 140MW mega-farm, 50,000 S17s to replace the 100,000 S9s costs around $100 million and you have to wait several months.

Supply of gear has been scarce, so prices have been high. 5G has been sucking up all the chip fab capacity so mining manufacturers haven't been able to produce as much as they'd like. If they are able to ramp up production we could see a huge gear dump next year which could send diff way up and gear prices way down.  Unlike the Oct, Nov, and Dec batches, the Jan batches don't seem to be selling out. So either people just don't like the price or there are a huge number of miners coming in Jan. Maybe a combination of both.

Price shifted to about 9125  but diff is still a good drop.


A lot of of lessor gear must be turned down maybe this farm  said fuck it.  Pulled 100,000 s-9's and is dumping them .   Maybe they are not going to gear back to s-17's.

100,000  s9's puts in a dent in hash rate.

1,400,000 th or 1.4 eh using 140000 kwatts or 140 megawatts.

It is possible a farm may decide to shut down.  Until after the ½ ing.  If they timed  their power contracts to end on Oct 31  2019 and are going to shut off all the s-9's and sell them off cheaply.

Then in May  come back to the table.  It is a move that can be argued to do.

For me with about 1100 th 

a move from 7500 a coin to  9500 a coin

and a diff drop of 5%

Is worth   pre power

 1100 x 0.00001791 = 0.019701 x 7500 = $147.75 a day x 30 = 4432 a month x 12 = 53184 yearly

 1100 x 0.00001885 = 0.020735 x 9500 = $196.98 a day x 30 = 5909 a month x 12 = 70912 yearly

YES!! Finally a " price up, Diff down " landscape......well.....hopefully. Lots of innings left in this Epoch.

Yeah the traders of any coin don't care what the price is as long as they are the ones mover it up and down.

Ie
  price 3000 drive it down to 2500 buy lift it up to 2900 sell  is the same as
  price 9000 drive it down to 7500 buy lift it up to 8700 sell

So five guys with big holdings of 100,000 coins  each can do this with ease.

In the case above asic builders have an interest against this if the only built and sold gear.  But since they mine and capture coins most likely they are one of the players bouncing price around.

Bitmain once again has regained dominance in the game they gave up on bch and bsv for now and are killing it with the most superior gear     s17 pro is head and shoulders above anything on the market.  it does 36 watts a th on low setting.

I bolded what is pretty much true. But we will see more upwards movement soon.


Really large drop.

Well, as I said a few pages and days ago.......   ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This is just a short covering rally. BTC price is the easiest asset to manipulate in a long time. Astro Turfing by Media and Social Media is rampant. For both directions. Establish the position, then float the stories to support it. Rinse and repeat. It happens over and over. Those who participate are getting very rich.

I cashed at 8500 and at 9600. Hoping for more bumping of price maybe 11111 in the morning. I will cash more if that happens.

Fine with me. I need some sales if I'm gonna get R&D funds for the next project, which should finally result in the long-awaited S1 refit boards and an actually good viable home miner.

Too bad I cashed out this afternoon at $8500, but it was at least breakeven for me instead of a loss.

Coins went past 10,000 and dropped to 9,900

If the bull comes we will move hard on diff.

Diff's general trajectory is up. It will remain so. But... it will not likely be as exaggerated as the current jump factors. Why? Because we have the latest, largest push in gear efficiency coupled with the Halving which are two powerful metrics.This will be the last "quantum leap" in efficiency for some time to come. The latecomers and over spenders and the re-sellers will get destroyed in the upcoming months.  I agree with the premise that LTC is a leading indicator of BTC relative to the halving. It is unlikely that the price appreciation of BTC will offset the Diff increase. Why? Because the masses believe it so. The highest probability scenario is...expectations on Diff will overwhelm and expectations on price appreciation will underwhelm up to and through the halving.  If you are a miner and you can survive the halving and remain profitable, then and only then will new opportunities present themselves. May the strong and wise survive.

Nice drop off so far.  We moved up 5% on Wednesday to the alltime high diff of 13.69t

I took the numbers below from https://diff.cryptothis.com/


Most likely quite a bit of old gear is shutting down.

S9
a841
a851
 
All are 90 watts a th at best all are losing money at 6 cent power.
Last year when the s9's lost money at about six cents  they got shut down from October all the way to April.

We now have a lot of 36 to 70 watt gear.

Bitmain
S17 36 to 45 watts
T17  50 to 55 watts

Avalon
A1041 60-67 watts
A1047  "
A1066  "

Innosilicon
T2 t30 50 to 70 watts
T3 t39 "
T3 t40 "
T3 t50 "
T3 t57 "

Whatsminer
M10   47 to 67watts
M10s  "
M20   "
M20s  "
M21   "
M21s  "

That is a lot of gear running from  as low as 36 watts a th to 70 watts a th.
It will be very complex as to how it affects difficulty.

Other factors Trump Tax
USA tax law asks for every trade to be reported every trade repeat every trade.
Meaning BTC to any ALT or any ALT to BTC or ALT to ALT.  Prior to this  it was only coins to cash.

I was using 7400-7500

 I rounded here and there  but it is close enough to say s9's  need 5 cent power at current diff and current price to make a few bucks.

While I didn't see a BTC price included in Phil's post above, I expect the reality is a bit worse today with a BTC price of $7460. 

S9 x 7 = 98 th.    Power used about 9100 watts

S17 x 2 = 100th. Power used about 4600 watts

A th earns .000018 btc after fees.

so  1/0.000018 = 55,555.555 th earns 1 btc in a day

55,555.555/98 = 566.89 x 9.1 x 24 = 123808 kwatts for 1 btc  if s9's

55,555,555/100 = 555.55 x 4.6 x 24 = 61,332 kwatts for 1 btc if s17's

so

s17 power cost for 1 btc

  613.32     1 cent
1226.64     2 cents
1839.96     3 cents
2453.28     4 cents
3066.60     5 cents
3679.92     6 cents
4293.24     7 cents
4906.56     8 cents
5519.88     9 cents
6133.32     10 cents
6746.65     11 cents
7359.99     12 cents

Losing in the red

7973.31 13cents

s9 power for 1 btc

1238.08       1 cent
2476.16       2 cents
3714.24      3 cents
4952.32      4 cents
6194.00      5 cents
7428.48      6 cents   break even for s9

losing in the red

8666.56    7 cents
9910.40  8 cents

So this jump   kills off 6 cent 7 cent and 8 cent s9's

I did not do 9 cent ,10 or 11 cent s9's as they have been dead a while.

but

123808 x .09 = 11,142.72 worth of power
123808 x .10 = 12,380.80 worth of power

At this point in time a lot of s9's are going to turn off.

I want to point out  LTC  price crashed at the ½ ing say 130 dropped to 48 today.  But hash rate moved way down.

I mention LTC since it has a shit ton of asic gear  not as much as BTC  but it is the only coin we can use to come up with somewhat of a comparable.

Many people have pushed the current mining with 18,000,000 mined and only 3,000,000 left to mine may mean the ½ ing will not move prices up.  If so  which is what happened with ltc then we may see hash rate shrinking and not price raising.

look at hashrate pattern of ltc



compare to hashrate pattern of btc



we very well could follow the same patterns that ltc did.

to mods this is about btc  not ltc  but I do need to keep the ltc info in this post to show the possible correlation.  Please allow this to stay

TIA