Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 5. (Read 9455 times)

hmmm  dropping again  under 2%


It must be nice to have 20% of  the network in your pocket.  Intentionally lower your s17 pros from turbo to low would drop hashrate for the entire network.

20% + 80% = 100%

43/57 x 20 = 15.08%   so 15.08 + 80 = 95.08%    and you drop the network  from 144 blocks a day to 137 blocks a day

you block share is  22  vs 29   so you lose 7 blocks a day, but save huge energy.  Do it on last 2 days of jump.

rate ends up    0% vs   + 1%.  Next jump crank it up to turbo and go 14 days  gains 4  blocks  so over  1 month you lost 10 blocks saved

around 2,000,000 kwatts of power at 4 cents = 80,000.   looks like a losing play on the surface as you gave up net of 10 blocks to save only 80,000 in cash.

14 x 12.5 x 8000 = 1,400,000  and new jump you got 4 blocks back  so 4 x 12.5 x 8000 = 400,000 .

so you lost 1,400,000 one jump you gained 400,000 next jump for a net loss of 1,000,000

Why do this? Here is why  you sell  10,000 s17 pros due to flat diff  you would only sell 5,000 pros if diff jumps

5,000 x 1400 = 7,000,000
10,000 x 1400 = 14,000,00

nice advertising  spend 1 mill get 7 mill  extra in sales.
never mind
the s9 sales
the t17 sales
the t17e sales
the t17+ sales
the s17e sales
the s17+ sales

lets see if we drop more today.  This is what hurts our game blatant incentive to alter hash rate by large builders of asic gear.


Oh btw coins are 7800 last I looked.

thanks for highlighting a very important issue surrounding voltage with newer gen gears....im one of those people who has voltage fluctuations albeit it is offset by the cheap cost of power.  so while i can pick up S9's for $100 im "buying"

You can never write off gear....well, with the exception f the D3, but even that is still a possibility in a parabolic move. I've unplugged and replugged L3+'s twice now. 3 months post halving and scrypt diff had dropped 75%!!! Now theyre back on again. I'll maybe turn my S9's off if they lose profitability but I'll NEVER sell them. They've been paid for several times over already.

Remember During the 20K bull run...S7's were trading for $1,200 dollars!@!@!.

Yeah  I have to keep up with the jones so to speak.

I have the 4 tiers   and will phase out my m10 units at this time.

I have 5 left  3 at full strength to at part strength.  About 30+30+30+22+27 = 139th  runs at the 66watts a th range.

I would sell these over the s9's or l3+  as they have almost no downside but they do have a good upside if prices moon. (a hodl in gear vs a hodl in BTC)

The m10 can go for close to 600-750 which means they have a bigger downside for me  then s9's do.

once I clear the m10's I will consider another purchase of gear.

Oh  we are under 100 blocks last I looked and +2.42%

A gear hodl move can work well. If you are setup for it.  I am setup for it.  I have 350 th in old gear.  I get paid  175 x 0.00001915 = 0.00335125 btc a day to not sell it and mine with it.   As I pay ½ the coins the 350 earns.  this means I make money hodling it every day. In 100 days it is 0.0335 in 200 days it is 0.0670 btc if coins moon I can get 300 a unit with a psu included.     Right now I get 150 or so maybe only 100 after shipping.  May as well mine them.

phill, you have pretty limited power just like I do , others pay well over 0.06-0.07$ per kwh, you and I along with side with these people will always have the incentive to upgrade, but many others don't , they will wait for old gears prices to drop and buy them cheap, ROI in 2 months and the rest will be history, when you come to think about, Antminer T9 for an example, which is a much worse gear than the S9, people actually still buy it ! , this adds to the proof that S9 still has a long way to go.

Personally i have already started upgrading to more efficient gears, but I am doing this very very slowly to avoid the risk of over paying for mining gears that I may get for half the price post halving, also I only have a regulated voltage in one location, so that will be the only place I can add new gen gears without the extra cost of voltage regulators, for the S9s I have, i don't worry about any voltage, even if it drops to 120v they will still hash away , i am pretty sure this is a problem for many others, especially in places where power is cheap, it's usually abused/over-used and voltage is never stable, so those people have more reasons to keep buying an S9 for 100$ than paying 1500$ for an S17 that will toast with a slight voltage drop.

You could be correct.  But I would think  bigger companies  have a blend of equipment.

By years end our 1450 th will be

350  older---  85-105 watt gear
350  new---   62-70  watt  gear
400  newer-- 50-60  watts gear
450  newest--39-50 watts  gear

1450th in sha 256


and 11gh in L3+

part of the reason for us to keep older gear is a large price run-up  we would sell them off.

they are paid off.

our power deal ½ the coins  

so  175gh of 350th at no cost for btc
and 5.5gh of 11gh at no cost  for ltc

our host now has 500th in s17 pros all to them.

so the mine is pushing 1900th


Oh we have 104 blocks to go still around + 2.25%   with price of 8020 a coin.

price was 9200 at start of this jump
diff was 12.72 at start of this jump

I highly doubt this phill , I think you are underestimating the profitability of S9 for those guys with dirt cheap power, if we take the 2 cents per kwh , an S9 still makes 50$ a month, if you make a large order of S9 you can pretty much get it for say a 100$ with PSU ( i know this because small quantities the average price in china now is below 130$ ) , so let's say 130$ for the sake of it

130$/14th =  9.2$ per th
profit per th = 3.57$ a month
ROI = 130/50 = 2.6 months

if you compare this against a new model, say the T17 42th is now priced for 977$

977$/42th = 23.3$ per th ( 153% more expensive than S9)
profit per th = 4.02$ a month (12.6% more profit )
ROI = 977/168.8$ = 5.7 months

**note that shipping price favors T17 since shippment is weight based and not TH based, but that factor has been ignored since 1-shipping price varies a lot 2- gears could have been bought locally and shipping is nearly 0.

We all know this won't last forever, but with current prices the S9s still make decent profit , and there still is a ton of room for those guys still, say diff spikes 100% and price does not, S9s gears will sell for 50$ with psu, make 25$ a month > 2 months ROI.

I believe that until S9 makes way too little profit to be considered, they will still come online , the market will adjust to favor those who have free or pretty cheap power, so I highly doubt the numbers you got in the quoted post.

Okay 2018 hash peak was close to 60eh  in Oct of 2018.

If ½ that gear mostly s9's avalon a841 avalon a851 was running right now in iran and russian using 1 cent power  we would not be at 13 or 13.1 diff which is around 90eh.  So I believe more then 30eh of that 60 eh  is offline.

I think only 20eh of the older gear is online and that 72eh of better gear is online.

To further clarify.

20eh at 85-95 watts a th

72eh at 70 watts or less a th   makes up the current network of 92eh  note 92eh active miners is but an estimate of gear hashing.

if you look below for the last month we were close to 117eh peak on  oct 24th

and a low of  71eh on nov 13

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart

so we are floating around 92eh right now.

I could see a guy with idle s9's in bulk and  some s17's mining.

But I can not see 30eh of s9's still on line.

BTW I hope there is 40eh of the current 92eh  online in the form of s9 or worse gear.

Sorry what do you mean '1/2 the s9s'? Half of the amount of S9s out there?
I think just shy of 4 million were made and maybe just over 2 still going. With other older gen which I know are still running thats about 30exa?

if 1/2 the s9s and other older gen are on 1 cent power that would mean 30th.
it would also mean we would be closer to 15 t diff and not 13t in a few days.

1859 made  we are at a +2.8% level

 diff will be at 13.1t

This is a very dubious assumption. The power grids in the areas of .01 per kwh are for the most part abysmal. These places present their own special brand of nightmares. I'll take .036 in the USA over .01 in Siberia any day.

well  we know there is cheap power  and 1 cent power is available ,but building cooling workers security add to this.  So figure 2 cents. Then add gear purchase and shipping fees.  And the s9's look a little less attractive..

Still I would love a megawatt farm  with 1 cent  power plus the additional costs.  As I would get myself 100's of s9's

I think there are truly a lot of S9 and 0.01j/gh equivalent gear in places in Russia with around 1c/kWh and in parts of Iran which at least for periods, or the well connected, have even cheaper than 1c/kWh electricity.

Yeah in this case price dropping to 8040  diff moving to 13.0

S9 on life support

the 14 th unit will earn 2.09  before power.

power at 8 cents = 2.49  loser
power at 7 cents = 2.17  loser

power at 6 cents = 1.87
power at 5 cents = 1.56
power at 4 cents = 1.25

we need to think about  the next tier of gear.
Lets say the m10

31 th = 4.65

power at 8 cents = 4.22
power at 7 cents = 3.69
power at 6 cents = 3.16

You will be able to "Short" difficulty through Puts and Calls. After the Halving I anticipate a very sharp decline in difficulty as the mining community suffers brutal attrition. If these options are available, I will likely buy some puts, or buy puts and sell calls. Called a "squash".

---

So now last Epoch was -7.5% and price is down -11%. Coming up a likely Epoch Jump. 2,5% as it stands now. Ugly.

if i correctly understand your idea then most miners will want to buy protection against rising difficulty with your "Difficulty adjustment options" - who will be on the other side on this deal? How will you get protection against rising difficulty?

You're math is correct. I would not write that call.  Number two, this is not a static scenario that is applied in all metrics. Lastly this is not applied to 100% of your holdings. If you own one BTC and are trying to hold onto it for a long term investment, this is not the strategy for you. I am always long BTC and getting longer everyday. While there are times that my analysis tells me this is a good thing to do, I do not believe that now is that time. I am perfectly happy to sell rallies until the halving. My long position is replaced every day.

This is where it gets more complex. I can create a synthetic long position in a much longer expiration to let the market get me long in a rapid price escalation. Example; Sell 1, 12/20 10k call at $3,000 Buy 1 12/20 15 call at $2,000.00 and buy 1 12/20 20 call at $1,000.00. You do not hold this trade until exp. If BTC has an explosive rally through 24K in the next 8-10 months you will find yourself long BTC for no cost. You can also sell puts to finance longer term call purchases. Options trading is a very complex matrix. Think of it as a multiple level chess board.

Getting back on topic; Once the "Difficulty adjustment options" become offered, this will be even more interesting.

the problem is that right now 29 Nov 2019 call option is 110 usd - so you will get only 110 usd per BTC - no 500 or 900 and  this seems  not worth at all - the price can go to 11-12 000usd per btc  in a single day - if this happens you will lose 2.5k per btc or  30% of your btc - i think this is terrible risk/reward. This happened to me once and i decided to never try it again because there is big chance this to happen again long before you recover from the loss. I will be happy if someone correct my calculations - because i like the idea of collecting premiums every month or 2 weeks

We are at block 1421 vs block 1382

about 39 blocks ahead of pace or +2.8%

price is in the 8500 area.

We should hit new jump on Thursday.  Maybe 4% maybe less.

There is a new "difficulty Option" going to be listed in the near future. This is a set of derivatives in the form of Call/Puts, that will track Diff and expire in conjunction with Diff adjustments. This is such a useful hedging vehicle for my mining rewards portfolio. The current onslaught of BTC options available to trade in conjunction with BTC and BTC settled is priceless. For Hedging, for speculation and for protection against volatility. I can buy or sell Straddles, Strangles, Collars, Buyrites, risk reversals, Risk less Conversions, Ratio ed back spreads, Butterflies, Condors. If you all are going to post on the internet and espouse these theories of your I strongly recommend you begin to learn about the myriad of vehicles that are coming forth this coming year that will dramatically effect this asset.

I " underestimate speculators" ?? Why do people post things without reading the preceding conversation. I AM a speculator. I AM a commercial miner, and I AM an Institutional Hedger. The whole reason I came to bitcoin is my 30+ years making markets and trading in Derivatives markets. It is the perfect skill set to mine and speculate and hedge in this new digital asset class. I'm currently constructing a new investment vehicle called a "CRIT". It's the same basic concept as a REIT. You as an investor will be able to buy a listed asset basket, comprised of BTC, LTC, Options, Futures, Swaptions, Smart contracts, and Repo-agreements. I need SEC approval but this thing is coming. ALL this strongly legitimizes BTC and Co. and brings it into the real world of investing.

Thank you for all your observations and criticisms. I've had a lot of success in these areas so I'm pretty confident in my analysis abilities.

Lastly and for the last time...the Halving DOES NOT lessen BTC supply. BTC supply is dictated by the software in 2009. ( 21M ) Anyone paying attention knows what BTC supply is. As far as LESS BTC available, flat out WRONG. When poorly managed large mining operations start to falter and fail. What do you think is going to happen to their BTC portfoliios?? They will SELL THEM!! This is likely where and when the next significant low will be put in. Diff is going up into the halving and BTC price will remain flat to lower. For now Long BTC from 8500 down to 6500 is a great place to be. Writing 500-1000 dollar OTM calls and taking in $500-$900 premium per BTC every 14 days also works. Trust me, I love getting called out of my BTC. It's a great windfall every time that happens. Plenty of chances to buy back at lower prices.

Best to you all.