Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 22. (Read 9455 times)

If this price holds we are in for a kick in the fact in 4 weeks time. There is a lot of gear idling along that should be ramping up in the coming week, not to mention everything that has shipped/will ship soon. I'm hoping my 70TH gets here soon so I can enjoy some more of the good times. With about 25% of the blocks left I'd be amazed if we didn't see at least an 8% jump this time around.

If not I'm baffled everything we expected to cause the jumps, have happened.

@ yankees.

I am at 600th

With 140-150 coming online

That will mean 740th if diff stays at zero  it will be 740 x 0.00003821 = 0.028275 btc  a day or 226 a day  of which I get ½ that is 113 x 30 = 3390 a month

all gear will be paid off by July 31

Looks like we get back to 0%  by days end

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

has us about 15 blocks off the pace.

We are still holding at 8000+  Phil is right  8000 caught a lot of us by surprise.
@Phil  are you getting more gear in soon?

So we are moving up to 7800

and diff is almost a positive number


When I created first thread I saw a set economic reasons for diff to collapse and or stay stable.

back on oct  4 2018 we had peak diff of 7.1 t  price at 6200?

this friday or sat may 17/18 2019  we should be close to  6.7 t  price over 7700?

what does it all mean?  Those that put in expansion in Nov,Dec,Jan  did well

at 7700 price and 6.7t diff

lets look at the s-9  say it does 13th at 1250 watts

power cost  daily profit

0 ...................... 3.75 usd  
1 cent ............... 3.45
2 cent ............... 3.15
3 cent ............... 2.85
4 cent ............... 2.55
5 cent ............... 2.25    
6 cent ............... 1.95  
7 cent ............... 1.65
8 cent ............... 1.35
9 cent ............... 1.05
10 cent .............  0.75  can you imagine at 10 cents the s-9 is back in business
11 cent .............  0.45   even at 11 cents profit

For those that are 12 and 13 cent.

an s9 set to low power via braiins.

will do 10th at 800 watts

if diff is 6.7 and price is 7700

12 cent ...................... 58 cents
13 cent ...................... 39 cents
14 cent ...................... 20 cents  

so what  does this all mean
sales of s17's will not be   great?
trump tax
euro tax both will slow diff growth due to sales taxes  well vat and import taxes.

Or does BTC just whale and go to 11k asap  which  still allows every s9 to profit even at 20 cent power.

if I hit a block mining here
http://solo.ckpool.org/users/1JdC6Xg3ajT3rge3FgPNSYYFpmf53Vbtje
it would now be over 90K

Oh  current diff is tanking


I do not think the drop  ends at a diff of 6.4t  and coins at 7k  but time will tell.  It would be nice if it did.

Kinda kicking myself for cashing some out Friday afternoon at $6200 (a good 5% above when I checked it on Thursday). Seeing $7500 right now. Ridiculous bump.

Either way, it'll be good for business if even a fraction of the last week's price bumps stick around. That includes hosting.

bch  has moved up

but yeah  I agree  we were at 51eh in oct we are not there at the moment and hash is dropping this jump so far!

as for now s9 13.5th makes about 3.92$  , for s9s that were bought last month this means just about or less than 2 months ROI ( excluding power) , this is incredible to say the least, how fast do you think difficulty will catch with price? we are up more than 100% in price but not even 20% in difficulty , which makes me a bit worried, where are all the gears hiding ?

As of about 11:45 am coins are 6279  and diff is trailing by 40 blocks ar about 4%

this is pretty nice and it starts to make s9's look a bit better.

before power a 13th s9  earns 3 dollars  if it burns 1250 watts that  is 1.25 x 24 = 30 kwatts daily so  if you have 7 cent power your s9 is turning a 90cent  to 1 dollar profit

Still negative.


We are just under 4 days in.

BTC price got very close to 5900 today.

If we surge to 6500 and hold price things will become very interesting.

Must be a retool or shut down for us to be this far back.

Yeah  they could leave  all numbers  off the first 5 days

other than  this line


As anyone that has been around  this is less then 3% of the epoch  of 2015/2016

as 60 expected/ 2016 = 2.97%

If it lasted  fives days at -10  it could mean  a  few farms have shut down and are upgrading.  Or a few farms have shut down.  Needs to be 3-5 big farms  off line to stay at -10  as

-10 drop is about 5000ph  and  that is about  380,000 s-9's

I am not sure  how big the largest farm is.

I know of one about 40m-watts  in size  which is around 34000 s9's

So in a way  this early drop if it continues  could mean a big upgrade. Have to wait it out.

My  600th will soon grow to 700th but it is not much on these scales.

Sigh - those sites should just not display anything for at least a few days after a diff change.
The numbers they show are completely meaningless - I guess they're just too stupid to realise that.

yeah  it should go up more.


Would be nice if this bolded type was really going to last.

Price is good over 5700.

Actual diff change:
2019-05-04 08:24:32.985+00
hi=574560 delta=5.50% new=6702169884349.2 prev=6353030562984.0

Which pretty much guarantees the next diff change will be over 10%

Price jumps  will push diff more. I am interested in the 6200 point for price.

That price will allow s9's  to mine on at 7 cents.

5700 and current diff is break even at 8 cents

6200 and current diff makes 87 cents at 8 cents

6200 and a diff of 6.7t  makes 72 cents at 8 cents and 1 dollar at 7 cents

6200 and a diff of 7.0t makes 59 cents "   "    "      "    88 cents at 7 cents

6200 and a diff of 7.7t makes 32 cents "  "     "     "     61 cents at 7 cents

So if we get to 6200 for 1 BTC I can see the s9's hanging around  until we get back above

a diff of 8.5t.

We will be over a diff of 6.7t  by sat the 4th of May.

We are now up 5.4%.
Plus a big BTC surge to 5700.

yeah  and s9's can hang in at 4 cent power for a while

we could see some drop off  but  a 4 and then a 10 seems possible if not likely.

if we do that  1.04 x 6.35 = 6.604 jump 1 say may 4th

then 7.26 diff in jump 2 say may 17th

that will put pressure on all the s9's at 5 cents.

a 7.26t diff  5 cent power  5350 price = 97 cents
"   "       "    6  "      "         "       "      = 67 cents
"   "       "    7  "      "         "       "      = 39 cents

We would get close to the shift that happen in Oct 2018  with diff dropped a lot.  There is a huge glut of s9 gear.

if the 7.9 diff of Oct 2018 was 90 percent s9 Some have shut down and with diff moving up more will shut down.

The transition to s17,t15,m20   40 watt a th gear will not be really fast since the s9's won't go poof until

diff forces them.

BY mays end 5-7 cent s9's  will be at the edge. (assuming stable price point of 5100 to 5800usd)

This will be fun to see it unfold.

Yep it is finally going up.
However, this diff change will decide the minimum of the next diff change also.

So using 4% as the next number (I'm not saying it will be 4% but using it for the explanation)
If it goes up 4%, then the next diff after this will go up at least 10% more
Why? Since the new miners have only been mining for a few days, but have pushed the 14 day average up 4%
So the next 14 days will be full with the new miners and will go up to where the new miners are now plus any more than come online during the next 14 days.

We are now plus 4%.

Up up and away.  S17s are driving diff up.

This is not terrible as some s9s will drop off. with current diff at 6.3 t

The s9  earns

0.71 usd  daily at 7 cent power
1.00 usd  daily at 6 cent power
1.23 usd  daily at 5 cent power
1.50 usd  daily at 4 cent power

if diff goes to 6.7t  and it looks like it will happen

the s9 earns 0.58 usd daily at 7 cent power.