Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 20. (Read 9456 times)
June 05, 2019, 02:02:56 PM
How big do you think Bitdeer is? And Bitmains own farms? If they are doing this with all of them: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iypR0Jfvg6s
June 05, 2019, 09:58:52 AM
Well taking everything offline allows for retool and refit. Packing and selling off this s-9's or placing them in storage in hopes to a better selling price in a few months.
Now we were down 10% for a while and as much as 58 blocks 10 % is a crazy amount of gear like you said 10 farms.
The network was about 45 eh 10% is 4.5 eh or 45000ph a ph is 77 s9's so 3,465,000 s9's were turned off about 4,500 megawatts.
and then replaced with 60,000 ph in gear a ph is 19 s17's so 1,140,000 s17's were turned on about 2500 megawatts.
I woke up tired and late this morning math could be wrong.
looking at that math suggests to me that there is more to the story then refits of gear. I simply do not think that much gear can be swapped out. and built that fast. So the 10% drop and they switch back to a 4% drop can be all retrofit/upgrade.
Even if m20s t3t 39 s17 t17 and some hidden bitfury all replaced older gear I do not think that much was moved that quickly.
So part of the numbers may be luck.
Now we were down 10% for a while and as much as 58 blocks 10 % is a crazy amount of gear like you said 10 farms.
The network was about 45 eh 10% is 4.5 eh or 45000ph a ph is 77 s9's so 3,465,000 s9's were turned off about 4,500 megawatts.
and then replaced with 60,000 ph in gear a ph is 19 s17's so 1,140,000 s17's were turned on about 2500 megawatts.
I woke up tired and late this morning math could be wrong.
looking at that math suggests to me that there is more to the story then refits of gear. I simply do not think that much gear can be swapped out. and built that fast. So the 10% drop and they switch back to a 4% drop can be all retrofit/upgrade.
Even if m20s t3t 39 s17 t17 and some hidden bitfury all replaced older gear I do not think that much was moved that quickly.
So part of the numbers may be luck.
June 05, 2019, 03:30:09 AM
Well looks like a farm refit is now complete.
One? I kind of doubt it. Make it ten at least. If the drop was because a refit it would have been a farm with 10% of the power taking all its miners down. Let's say 5% of the hash to make it more believable and the rest down to luck.
Since it's a refit they must be taking out older gear, that's s9 or worse. 5% of the total hashrate in s9 hashing power means about 150 000 miners.
Why would you take all of them online for just a few days and not at least room by room if not rack by rack. I might be wrong but as I remember Bitmain used to host them by a hundred in a ten by ten level. That would still be 1500 of them.
Besides taking them and then add the new gear would mean you've just lost 5% of the daily 1800BTC , that's 90*8000, 720 000$. To me, it makes no sense but maybe there is something I'm missing.
And another thing, somebody with that much power getting new gear only now? Hmm, who that might be...
June 05, 2019, 01:59:36 AM
Closing the gap. Did I just see an 11-block hour?
I had a bad feeling about this from the very beginning
We are at -5% and slowly catching up ( number of blocks behind decreasing)
However price is still declining , and what it looks like on the charts that this correction is far from over, 6.6k IMO is very likely to happen before the next adjustment , i will take -5-7% drop in difficulty.
June 04, 2019, 06:40:44 PM
Closing the gap. Did I just see an 11-block hour?
Well looks like a farm refit is now complete.
June 04, 2019, 06:38:32 PM
Closing the gap. Did I just see an 11-block hour?
June 03, 2019, 09:34:41 PM
looking below:
down 9.5% is amazing and now with the price drop to under 8000 we may see a solid drop in diff.
It would be nice to see this 9.5% hold.
Frankly I would love to see price drop lower maybe to $5555.55 as that number knocks out a lot of hash. I purchased a small amount of coins today at 7950. Around 0.04 btc.
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 579133 (36 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 90.3199% (542 / 600.09 expected, 58.09 behind)
Current Difficulty: 7459680720542.296XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 6751075222493 and 7112239302169
Next Difficulty Change: between -9.4991% and -4.6576%
Previous Retarget: last Thursday at 6:31 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): June 14, 2019 at 11:16 AM (in 10d 12h 44m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest): June 15, 2019 at 6:31 AM (in 11d 7h 59m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 16h 45m 36s and 15d 12h 0m 39s
Current Pace: 90.3199% (542 / 600.09 expected, 58.09 behind)
Current Difficulty: 7459680720542.296XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 6751075222493 and 7112239302169
Next Difficulty Change: between -9.4991% and -4.6576%
Previous Retarget: last Thursday at 6:31 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): June 14, 2019 at 11:16 AM (in 10d 12h 44m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest): June 15, 2019 at 6:31 AM (in 11d 7h 59m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 16h 45m 36s and 15d 12h 0m 39s
down 9.5% is amazing and now with the price drop to under 8000 we may see a solid drop in diff.
It would be nice to see this 9.5% hold.
Frankly I would love to see price drop lower maybe to $5555.55 as that number knocks out a lot of hash. I purchased a small amount of coins today at 7950. Around 0.04 btc.
June 03, 2019, 08:59:18 PM
We are 55 blocks behind at the moment, expected change is -9.14% > https://diff.cryptothis.com.
with the dip of price of today which can very likely continue then the adjustment will be decent ( 10-15% IMO). I sold some btc at 8700-8800 , if we manage to drop to last month prices i will buy some S9s ( since they will drop in price too) to increase my hashrate hodlings, by all means I think the coming couple months will probably be best time to stack up some gears for the bull run.
with the dip of price of today which can very likely continue then the adjustment will be decent ( 10-15% IMO). I sold some btc at 8700-8800 , if we manage to drop to last month prices i will buy some S9s ( since they will drop in price too) to increase my hashrate hodlings, by all means I think the coming couple months will probably be best time to stack up some gears for the bull run.
June 03, 2019, 07:15:23 AM
we are at block 467 and should be at block 514. Lots of time left but this looks like a decent epcoh so far as coins are over 8400 and the diff is under not over.
I am at 600 th if we really drop 10% in diff it would be like 60th. I am also adding over 150 th . So things are still looking up.
I am at 600 th if we really drop 10% in diff it would be like 60th. I am also adding over 150 th . So things are still looking up.
June 03, 2019, 12:00:42 AM
2 days in and so far still negative.
Except that we fell from 17 to just about 6.9 > https://diff.cryptothis.com/ , i see no reason why difficulty should drop from here at current BTC prices if the production of the new gear is not terribly slow, but seems like it is.
June 01, 2019, 05:48:43 PM
2 days in and so far still negative.
Price is floating at 8400-8600.
Price is floating at 8400-8600.
May 31, 2019, 07:31:00 PM
So the Jump came and went.
so far we have some very odd numbers.
we are 26 hours in and -17%.
which would be wonderful if it happens (it may not).
we may be seeing a retooling of a few large mines.
which makes sense as s-9's are now finally being moved about the world.
I may off load all my s-9's I have around 20 so 20 x 13th = 260th.
5 s17's = 265th
or 4 m20's = 280th
7 inno t3t 39th = 273th
even 9 avalon a1041's = 270th
I am not a big miner.
I am a medium miner with 120kwatts and 75 of it filled.
If I dump my 20 s9's and replace with above combos
I go from 26kwatts to :
11kwatts with the s17's
13.2 kwatts with the m20's
14 kwatts with the inno's
18 kwatts with the avalon's
less gear to break down and more spare power for greater expansion.
I have to think this is all over the world.
A new miner looking for a quick score and rob may want the s9s'
I guy that has roi'd will sell them off.
I wonder if the adjusting takes a whole jump.
so far we have some very odd numbers.
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 578718 (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 82.0890% (127 / 154.71 expected, 27.71 behind)
Current Difficulty: 7459680720542.296XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 6171446566112 and 7274392308795
Next Difficulty Change: between -17.2693% and -2.4839%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 6:31 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): June 14, 2019 at 3:27 AM (in 13d 7h 9m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest): June 16, 2019 at 7:49 PM (in 15d 23h 31m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 8h 56m 44s and 17d 1h 18m 42s
Current Pace: 82.0890% (127 / 154.71 expected, 27.71 behind)
Current Difficulty: 7459680720542.296XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 6171446566112 and 7274392308795
Next Difficulty Change: between -17.2693% and -2.4839%
Previous Retarget: Yesterday at 6:31 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): June 14, 2019 at 3:27 AM (in 13d 7h 9m 38s)
Next Retarget (latest): June 16, 2019 at 7:49 PM (in 15d 23h 31m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 14d 8h 56m 44s and 17d 1h 18m 42s
we are 26 hours in and -17%.
which would be wonderful if it happens (it may not).
we may be seeing a retooling of a few large mines.
which makes sense as s-9's are now finally being moved about the world.
I may off load all my s-9's I have around 20 so 20 x 13th = 260th.
5 s17's = 265th
or 4 m20's = 280th
7 inno t3t 39th = 273th
even 9 avalon a1041's = 270th
I am not a big miner.
I am a medium miner with 120kwatts and 75 of it filled.
If I dump my 20 s9's and replace with above combos
I go from 26kwatts to :
11kwatts with the s17's
13.2 kwatts with the m20's
14 kwatts with the inno's
18 kwatts with the avalon's
less gear to break down and more spare power for greater expansion.
I have to think this is all over the world.
A new miner looking for a quick score and rob may want the s9s'
I guy that has roi'd will sell them off.
I wonder if the adjusting takes a whole jump.
May 30, 2019, 07:37:06 AM
About 10 hours away.
NEW FACT: we are back to Oct 4 2018 levels of difficulty.
BUT PRICE IS 8600 not 6200 and gear s17 = 40 watts a th vs s9 = 100 watts a th.
So we are not stay flat based on these numbers 10t diff is coming by years end maybe 12t diff.
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 578524 (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 111.1938% (1949 / 1752.80 expected, 196.2 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 6704632680587.417XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 7457095826401 and 7458021339057
Next Difficulty Change: between +11.2230% and +11.2368%
Previous Retarget: May 18, 2019 at 4:24 AM
Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 6:35 PM (in 0d 10h 2m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest): Today at 6:37 PM (in 0d 10h 4m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 14h 10m 30s and 12d 14h 12m 45s
Current Pace: 111.1938% (1949 / 1752.80 expected, 196.2 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 6704632680587.417XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 7457095826401 and 7458021339057
Next Difficulty Change: between +11.2230% and +11.2368%
Previous Retarget: May 18, 2019 at 4:24 AM
Next Retarget (earliest): Today at 6:35 PM (in 0d 10h 2m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest): Today at 6:37 PM (in 0d 10h 4m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 14h 10m 30s and 12d 14h 12m 45s
NEW FACT: we are back to Oct 4 2018 levels of difficulty.
BUT PRICE IS 8600 not 6200 and gear s17 = 40 watts a th vs s9 = 100 watts a th.
So we are not stay flat based on these numbers 10t diff is coming by years end maybe 12t diff.
May 30, 2019, 03:15:22 AM
My guess also but I think we'll need at least a month but probably a few for all that gear to be put online. Judging by the jump this time it should be the effect of some 100 000 s17 coming online, right?
Of course, there are some other miners, some lucky guys like #ccgllc who are coming back with profit, but still, you need a couple hundred thousand more for that, not going to happen overnight.
But I've missed this train! At least due to the faster mined blocks, the network has also temporary increased its capacity so we can all avoid the high fees a fomo wave would trigger.
Of course, there are some other miners, some lucky guys like #ccgllc who are coming back with profit, but still, you need a couple hundred thousand more for that, not going to happen overnight.
But I've missed this train! At least due to the faster mined blocks, the network has also temporary increased its capacity so we can all avoid the high fees a fomo wave would trigger.
May 29, 2019, 08:09:51 PM
Jump comes tomorrow. Should be 10-13%
we should be over 7.4T diff and an all time high
which was from Oct 4 2018 to Oct 18th 2018
that number was 7.45t and price was 6200
well we will be at 7.46t and price is about 8600
so we are about 8600/6200 = 38% better off in price
a factor of 1.387 to 1
I would think we are at 70 watts a th not 100 watts a th
so 100/70 = 1.428 or 42%
so 1.428 x 1.387 = 1.980
this means if price stays at 8600 diff could go to 14t to bring us to oct 2018 profit numbers.
my guess is diff moves up solid to at least 10th with a level price for now.
we should be over 7.4T diff and an all time high
which was from Oct 4 2018 to Oct 18th 2018
that number was 7.45t and price was 6200
well we will be at 7.46t and price is about 8600
so we are about 8600/6200 = 38% better off in price
a factor of 1.387 to 1
I would think we are at 70 watts a th not 100 watts a th
so 100/70 = 1.428 or 42%
so 1.428 x 1.387 = 1.980
this means if price stays at 8600 diff could go to 14t to bring us to oct 2018 profit numbers.
my guess is diff moves up solid to at least 10th with a level price for now.
May 27, 2019, 12:56:48 PM
I have 3 s-9s at a host site I pay 145 usd a month total for the three.
they earn 0.0458 btc a month or 411.
that is a net of 266 a month.
they earn 0.0458 btc a month or 411.
that is a net of 266 a month.
May 27, 2019, 11:54:15 AM
Brought my S9s back online almost 2 months ago. Running alternative firmware I'm earning between $2.50-$2.85/day/miner at today's $8881 price point. Don't know how long it will last, especially with the ~8% difficulty jump coming in a few days, but loving it while it does. When I started up back then, I was only positive by $0.25/day/miner. Oh, profit calculations based on $0.087/kwh power cost.
When I re-launched, I was running the S9s on their most efficient power settings. With the alternative firmware they were averaging about 11.6TH/Sec. Plotted the efficiency curve varying voltage and frequency and settled on a point a bit above that - actually slightly overclocked but undervoltaged. My base setting is now 725Mhz at 8.4V, which many of the chips support just fine. The firmware auto-tuned the frequency of the rest of the chips down to something they could handle. So now the boxes run between 13TH/sec and 15.45TH/Sec (for the best ones), most around 15TH/sec.
When I re-launched, I was running the S9s on their most efficient power settings. With the alternative firmware they were averaging about 11.6TH/Sec. Plotted the efficiency curve varying voltage and frequency and settled on a point a bit above that - actually slightly overclocked but undervoltaged. My base setting is now 725Mhz at 8.4V, which many of the chips support just fine. The firmware auto-tuned the frequency of the rest of the chips down to something they could handle. So now the boxes run between 13TH/sec and 15.45TH/Sec (for the best ones), most around 15TH/sec.
May 27, 2019, 06:47:51 AM
You meant 20k, not 20x, right? 
20k
dec 2017 peak of 20k with diff of say 2T = 10 to 1 price to diff with say net work at 140 watts a th.
so if network is at 70 watts a th a price to diff of 5 to 1 is equal in profits.
so diif will be 7.2 t in a few days if price was 36k the profit would be equal to dec of 2017 as 5 x 7.2 = 36k.
so we are a long ways off from 36k.
I figure diff will now grow to 10t by years end.
I figure network efficiency to be 60 watts by years end maybe 70 watts.
so to match the dec peak of 2017 we would need to be at 5x 10t = 50,000usd to maybe 6x 10t = maybe 60,000 usd.
I do not see us matching that profit margin as it was simply too good and not sustainable.
but a s9 is about 9.5th at 780 watts set to lowest power draw.
at 7.2t diff
8800 coin price
10 cent power
it earns 1.04 usd a day
never mind that at 8 cent power it makes 1.56 a day.
at the 13000 gh setting while using 1250 watts.
So at 8800 usd the s-9 is back in action this jump to 7.2t and until diff is at 11th the s-9 makes money at 8800 and 8 cent power.
for us to go to 11th from 7.2th(that is next jump number) means many many many pieces of gear.
May 27, 2019, 01:25:59 AM
Taking the absolute peak into consideration is a bit of a push, the peak lasted for a few hours, the median value for December was 15k, so it would be more like 3x not 4x.
We will never see those value in mining returns again unless we experience another bubble, and as you said it, since we can only have 2x efficiency, we need 2x the price...40k anyone?
Hmm, just saw this...
You meant 20k, not 20x, right?
We will never see those value in mining returns again unless we experience another bubble, and as you said it, since we can only have 2x efficiency, we need 2x the price...40k anyone?
Hmm, just saw this...
At best we are 2x the efficiency and price is 8800.
So since 4x the efficiency is a long ways off. Price may move upwards to 20x by years end.
So since 4x the efficiency is a long ways off. Price may move upwards to 20x by years end.
You meant 20k, not 20x, right?
May 26, 2019, 07:51:03 PM
We are pushing 8900 price point.
So price jump is more then 20% since May 18.
7300 on may 18
8850 on May 26
Diff jump is about 9% so far.
Many feel this price point is too high.
As a long time miner let’s compare the all time peak price of 20000. With a diff of 1.9t in dec 2017.
8850. With a diff of 6.7t. In May 2019.
6200 with a diff of 7.2t in oct 2018.
So we are better off the oct 2018.
And worse off the dec 2017.
But I left out the factor of gear efficiency.
So let’s argue the network is 80watts a th now Vs 110 watts a th in oct 2018.
Or 135 watts a th in dec 2017.
To reach dec 2017 numbers we need 4x the efficiency and a 20k price.
At best we are 2x the efficiency and price is 8800.
So since 4x the efficiency is a long ways off. Price may move upwards to edit 20,000 USD not 20x by years end.
And we would still not be as well off as dec 2017.
So from mining viewpoint. Price to 20k and diff to 10t by dec 2019 is not a crazy reach.
So price jump is more then 20% since May 18.
7300 on may 18
8850 on May 26
Diff jump is about 9% so far.
Many feel this price point is too high.
As a long time miner let’s compare the all time peak price of 20000. With a diff of 1.9t in dec 2017.
8850. With a diff of 6.7t. In May 2019.
6200 with a diff of 7.2t in oct 2018.
So we are better off the oct 2018.
And worse off the dec 2017.
But I left out the factor of gear efficiency.
So let’s argue the network is 80watts a th now Vs 110 watts a th in oct 2018.
Or 135 watts a th in dec 2017.
To reach dec 2017 numbers we need 4x the efficiency and a 20k price.
At best we are 2x the efficiency and price is 8800.
So since 4x the efficiency is a long ways off. Price may move upwards to edit 20,000 USD not 20x by years end.
And we would still not be as well off as dec 2017.
So from mining viewpoint. Price to 20k and diff to 10t by dec 2019 is not a crazy reach.
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