Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 24. (Read 9460 times)

It is still a good number about -0.9%  with 85 blocks to go.  

Has anyone received an s17 ship notice?  Bitmain has April 20 to April 30 as ship date for the s17's that sold out.  This would show up in the next jump if shipped on time. So if Phil is correct with the 16.5%  difficulty move coming over next 3 months next jump should show us something. I think  he is wrong and we will do more like +25%  in May, June, and July maybe more like 30% if you put in August.

If you are big 1000 s9's  and at

4 cents  the s9 set to 9500gh and 780 watts  earns  60 cents a day

actually more viabtc is paying at 102% with no variance

If I had 1000 s9's set to 13000 gh  and 1200 watts

they earn 71.65 cents a day actually more at viabtc

so turning all those s9's down to the low setting saves 420 x 1000 = 420000 watts

it lets you buy  420000/2800 = 150 s17's  

and you have 1000 x 9.5 th or 9.5 ph  plus 52 th x 150 =  7.8 ph  that is a net of  17.3 ph  with same power footprint

and you did 13 th x 1000 =  13 ph

so just a partial upgrade and you move from 13 ph to 17.3 ph with same power foot print

so if ½ the network is at 4 cents  17.3/13 =  33 percent jump x ½ =  16.5%  jump is possible  in the next 3 months.

That is with a stable price.

I would think shipping will start on monday the day after easter for the s17's.

That's promising.  Still most of this nex gen gear hasn't shipped out, or has been small batches. What are we 3 weeks away from the S17 from batch 1 and 2 shipping out?

I am kind of curious though how many large farms upgraded to say an S15 series or something comparable and aren't eager to update again. It would be nice to have some idea of how many units sell in each release by any company.

btc.com also has it as a small drop tomorrow.

Best guess it's going to be about the same +/- 1% for the next one also.
With it finally being warmer here in the US I think a lot of "space heaters" are getting shut off.

I had been running an R4 at night in the main room of the condo up until last week. That's off.
The T9s in the warehouse have run for a few hours here and there in the AM to take the chill out.

If I am doing it that way I would have to assume others are too. So even though the more efficient gear is showing up the older stuff is shutting down.

I started another thread this morning about 110V mining slowly going away too. That will probably take away some of the small home / hobby miners over the next few months.
Yes it was pointed out to me that the A1041 can be powered by 110V but most of the others cant.

-Dave

they have price charts but no difficulty chart and no profit calculators that I can find.

---

about 165 blocks to go

still negative


I will take 2 more weeks of the same diff

Does www.bitcoinwisdom.io have charts?

Heh, there's a > 22% chance of that being wrong ... yeah most sites aren't very accurate ...

Numbers are slowing down dropping just a little bit

I switched to diff.cryptothis.com about April 4

I think bitcoinwisdom stopped charts about March 26 or 27

Yep.  Using http://bitcoin-difficulty.com/ until it comes back online.

Anybody else notice that bitcoinwisdom appears to be "stuck" again? It's last recorded difficulty change was supposedly March 24th. I am sure that's "stale" or we are looking at a huge drop in difficulty coming up.

Don't worry, but some things can not be spelled out as it would leave the forum vulnerable to action against it.

I have had more then one person tell me they  want to avoid trump tax  of 27.6%  by any means  possible.
I tell them it is not worth the risk as it can be found out far too easily. Fines and confiscation would make it a mess.

Got it, sorry for that. I was just explaining it for educational purposes, but learned the lesson, thanks!

And as Kano said, all are illegal which is why your more detailed post was deleted by the mods.

That are illegal.

There are ways to avoid paying high import taxes in Europe

Actually for most of Europe it has been and still is at or above 20%  



But it has played a major part in why it is hard to make it mining in the EU. That and the high electricity costs.

Europe long suffered vat on miners, 17%
USA got cheap no tax for years now has very high tax 27.6%.
China has  good power cost and no high tax on gear. Plus they make the gear and shipping cost is low.

China still has a good edge to mine.

I actually think the high USA tax and the High Europe Tax slow down hash rate growth.  I would have ordered more m10's 2 or 3 at a time  vs 1 at a time.
Many in the states would have done the same.
Many in Europe would have done the same.

I think it is an economical uneven playing field that makes for the complaining.

But in terms of growth of mining trump tax started mining  growth shrank.

The correlation is almost a perfect match.

trump tax in sept 2018
growth drop in oct 2018

The best example is 15 used s9s with power supplies = 3000

Set with braiins they can do 10.05 th and 815 watts.

So 15 do 150th and 12.3kwatts

While 3 new s17 cost 9k due to trump tax in USA.

They do 150th. And use 7.0 kwatts

So you are 6k in the hole. To save 5.3 kwatts.

That is about 3800 kwatts a month or 46000kwatts a year at 5 cent power I save 2300 in power

Even if I am doing 10 cent power I save 4600 but I spent 6k. Would have been 4.5k with no trump tax.

So any large USA player is not going to rush to buy the newer gear. They will seek cheap power and cheap s9 gear.

I would argue that trump tax has really been a huge factor preventing growth.

May be the best for,all of us that it still stays at 27.6%.

Meh, I don't get the reason for all this mostly off topic discussion - the only on topic part of it is the effect it *might* have on diff - which at this point is a completely unknown factor and no discussion will make any roadway into that unless something does actually change in China - which is pretty unlikely given the history of such FUD discussions where it has never really had any effect in the past.

But you get people rampaging on the forums when the people in the US have to pay more for miners due to a tax.
But then you get people saying how they want it to be harder for people in China to mine ... actually sounds pretty much full on racists to me.

Charge them 6 cents a kwatt