Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 19. (Read 9455 times)

I agree that it does not predict with a high degree of accuracy.  As 1 hour with  10 blocks or 1 hour of 1 block  right at the end can shift numbers by more then 0.5%

Early numbers today show 250 blocks vs 221 blocks more then 10%  and coins are up over 8600.

That matches the idea of bitdeer cranking the gear up  when coins go up in price.

Yeah but it was -0.67% (yesterday) - so not even between what they said it would be

May 30th coins were 8284 at 10 pm
June 13th coins are  8186 at 12.45pm

That is a drop of 1.11% for price
Diff has dropped 0.89%
That is close to a perfect ratio for the last 2 weeks.

I don't do bitdeer as the potential for abuse it simply too high.

It does not matter that they do it or not.  It is just that they are able to it. So buying a bitdeer contract really helps them to do market manipulation if they want to do it.

I did purchase used s9's and l3+ I think that is not so good for them.

Back to the numbers here we are still under 0 at -.5%

make that -1.2%   with about 1 day left.

They are a monopoly what else can I say,
I hate supporting them buying/selling using second hand antminer but let's be honest it's a readily available make. I want to see an asic manufacturer just charge a normal markup based on total cost to build. Kinda like a graphics card. It seems gekko is the only one consistent with that philosophy but are hobbiest grade solo stuff.
Those bm chips are being made at contract price. Why do the manufacturers need that extra bit on top of every thing else.
It's a greed game.
Many aspects unnoticed and unregulated.

it takes me about two thousand words to show you that it makes sense.

But only for a huge player with a ten percent farm. Bit deer is big enough to make it work.

As far as I know only they have enough hash power to do what I am saying.

Let’s try to illustrate what I am attempting to explain.

Let’s pretend they only have s17 pro gear with better firmware then (edit) the released gear.
Not a reach since this was true of the s9.

Let’s pretend they have 3eh in s15 sales
Let’s pretend the have 3eh in s17 sales.

A total of 6eh in obligated payments to the owners of the hash contracts.

No one checks their gear there is no way we know what they are mining.
If their gear is checked and verified to be 1/2 s15 and 1/2 s17 they have not shown proof.

All of the above is true.

So since they build the gear and can make an s17 cheaper then anyone in the world the only thing needed for me to be correct is they have only s17 gear with better firmware then released to the public.

Above I said they need to pay 6eh hash every day.

If they have all s17 that on efficient setting do 40th at 35 watts a th. And on top speed do 60 th at 40 watts a th then they can do exactly what I am saying.

By running at 40 th and 35 watts a th if the s17s they own cover all 6eh the one of s15 and s17 contract holders.

The edge they get is they charge all those s15 contract holders s15 power costs which is about 52 watts a th.  So they get a lot of extra money on 3eh of power costs.

They get a little bit of extra money on the s17s since they charge 41 watts a th and at the low power they use it spends 35 watts a th.

When they do this the daily hash they are running is 6eh.

If price spikes they can push the gear to 9eh. When they do this

It burns 41 watts a th so they still charge bitdeer s15 contracts 52 watts a th which means extra power charges and of course cranked up hash rate. 1.5 eh

When they do this with the s17 contracts. They charge 41 watts a th and use 41 watts a th so they get the 1.5 eh

So on a maxed hash day. The net work shows 3eh extra hash all directly into bitmain’s pocket
Partially paid power by s15 contract holders.  So they get 3eh for 1eh power costs.

If they only do it on a price spike day the network does 10 extra blocks.

If price drops say 7700 they back off and the network does -1 or 0 blocks extra.

So 154 on a high price day.
And 143 on a low price day.

They are the only people capable of doing what I typed as they build the s17s
They own bitdeer.

They have a ton of hash
They can crank the gear up and down .

In my example above they can do 6-9 eh.

The 3eh swing is about 1/15 of the network.

Yeah many say why not just run it all at full speed.  It makes more.

Well if the network keeps jumping they will.
But if they swing it up and down the 3eh I say the network grows slower and diff does not move.

Obviously once Inno Avalon microbit all crank gear out and diff jumps they won’t do what I am saying.

They will push to the 9eh with the last 3eh subsided by bitdeer contracts.

Ie 3eh hash at 1eh power cost.

That math above works but only for bitmain.  Since they have those bitdeer mixed contracts s15 and s17

Btw if they only had s17 contracts most of the above is not true.

Notice on their website the s17 are sold out the s15 contracts are not.

Try to find out how many s17 contracts exist vs s15. Good luck on that.

note a few edits marked above.

It does, and that is why the theory does not make sense, I did not run the numbers but I know that turning off a profitable gear today only to "potentially" mine more coins a few days later is not something anyone would do.

well s17's have 2 or 3 speeds.

owners of bit deer are based on high speed power charge plus 1 or 2 cents

so bitmain can play some amazing games with a big bitdeer farm.

if coins pop crank the gear
if coins drop drop the gear.

and the bitdeer customers eat all that  not bitmain.

You remember when I posted that bitdeer audit. It's was a joke . Bitmain always doing really shady shit.  If they jump diff down right before an adjustment , and after an adjustment they put it on high for the extra profit doesn't the difficulty come back a little more aggressive based on averages? Increasing the slope ?

well now I feel they (who ever the fuck they is)  just play games with hash rate attempting to do -1 to +1 this jump

as it gives them 2 more weeks at the current hash rate.


For this to be true  it means about 4.5eh of hash you can crank up at will

now if you look at what the s17's can do bitmain could have a lot of hash they move up and down on speed settings.

think of what you could do with a 5eh bitdeer mine.

if all the s17's are set to 1 of the 3 speeds

Efficiency
36.0J/TH± 10%
39.5J/TH± 10%
45.0J/TH± 10

Hash rate

36~48TH±3% / 50TH ±6% / 50~62TH±3%
36~48TH±3% / 53TH ±6% / 53~62TH±3%

you can move your mine from  3.6 eh to 6.2 eh

if you sold the bitdeer shares at the lowest hash best power efficiency  and set them that way you charge the high power rate means extra profit.

if price jumps you can crank to highest hash and you profit own the higher hash.

the real question is bitdeer 4.5eh to 2.0eh or 10.0eh.

while price is still floating at more or less the same number when you posted this, the gap is decreasing slow and steady, we are now only 17.7 blocks behind and -1.09%.

Gear prices have been stable for the past couple weeks, price is dropping, hashrate is stable and tending to increase, the best scenario would be a huge fall in price ( expected anyway) , a massive fall in hashrate and a good drop in difficulty, however I doubt the 3 days are good enough for any considerable change in terms of difficulty.

We are block 1396

620 blocks to go.

-21.27 blocks short  or -1.41%


price is coasting at 7676   which means I need to buy a few dollars worth of coin.

Everytime it drops 100 I buy 50 bucks worth.    So if it goes under 7600  I will grab 50 more.



This is  an 8:08 pm edit test.

This is an 8:33 pm edit test.

Yeah, but what made me wonder about it is the fact that the two guys in the clips are introduced like Bitmain's America Sales Manager and a guy being CEO of D and M Tecnologies LLC (no google htis on it whatsoever).

So it made me think the action was happening in the US. And only 3 locations in the US have seen more than 1.5 inches of snow after the last storm on April 27. (checking it on noah website) All the time with shipping, customs, transport, these guys must have been the firsts to receive the equipment, just it was launched. So who are they?

Of course, if it was indeed filmed in China, all the tinfoil goes in the shredder.

I noticed the strange change in numbers too, I used to use https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty to check the difficulty and hashrate, sadly it hasn't synchronized for a while now, so the only option is https://diff.cryptothis.com/.

as i type we are at only -1.3%  , about 4 days to go . i think coin price has more chances of falling from here, lets hope we end up with - or at least no change.

This site sometimes has false numbers. I went from -28% to -5% in about two refresh clicks.

We are at -25 blocks and -1.7% right now.

Yup this is indeed it, there is a telegram mining hardware group, and people there usually offer new gears before the average joe knows about their existence, I remember one trusted distributor was selling the S11 like 1 or 2 months before Bitmain started selling them to the other humans, it is a Chinese thing.

Now those non-Chinese can still buy from the reseller/s and get to receive the gears well before they are available for other people , it's pretty normal.

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@philipma1957 we are at -1.7% , did you notice that we went to as far as -18% the other day? but it didn't last long and started dropping real fast, I also noticed that hashrate on BCHSV and ABC  has been on the rise,  SV's hashrate went from 600p to almost 1000p the past week , seems like a lot of gears are coming back online.

In general, manufacturers ship miners inside China (of course also to the general public) before they get outside China.

Lol yes not very bright.

Nah, China's huge and mountainous, especially western Sichuan near the big dams, it's practically in Tibet. Ripe for unseasonal weather or just plain weather. Lots of late snow events in USA this year too.

Sorry, I do like a good conspiracy, but unsure here lol.

Lols, I had a good laugh at 0.34. It makes obvious sense to unpack them before you take them out in the snowy weather to gather enough moisture before you put them online . I know it's for marketing purposes and just showing boxes wouldn't have made an impact but still.

And now to the serious part: where and when was this filmed, I doubt they have filmed in May, there are only a few locations that still got that much snow at that time, so,  did they actually shipped hundred of miners well before their announced launch?

I think they are really big  I am just not sure how fast they can build and deploy 1 million pieces of s17 and or t17 gear.

I am certain  they will need to do at least 1,000,000 pieces for their own farms.  As to the speed they can  do it I do not know.

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Well we are closing in on -1%  and only about 13 blocks off pace with 6 days or so left to next jump.

We may end up +2%  this jump   coins are back over 8000.

And I am waiting on so much gear it is a bitch.