Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 26. (Read 9460 times)

Price is well over 5000 at coinbase.
I think difficulty is going to really jump up a lot.

Bitcoinwisdom is frozen at 1499 blocks for last few days.

So from link below

Yeah  we are over 600th vs 100th.

I am impressed that the lull in hash has lasted since  Oct 4 2018 (all time peak)
We are still below August of 2018

Info below is from https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


I can see us at 8,000,000,000,000 very quickly.

That's pretty funny, is that a banner out by the government or the Hydro company? I know we tend to see an uptick from the wet season but doesn't it also usually flood out a few facilities?

Either way I'd be happier to see a bunch of Chinese home miners kicking in than a few large farms swooping in. I'm pretty sure we have seen a turning point just because of the all these miners coming in at .05 J/GH or lower with massive hashrates of 30TH or more per machine.

Just as an example I will be approximately 3X larger than I was last year with less machines running, 4X if I can salvage a missed opportunity.

Chinese Hydro-Plant put banners for wet season

https://twitter.com/DoveyWan/status/1111358579624206336

Just with the S15s and M20s alone we should expect a peak in hashrate, and now you add cheap electricity from China?


The first blackout lasted a week and that started March 7. But this week we had another half week of blackout. Electricity will likely remain unstable until a major maintenance is done to the grid, this has been impossible so far under the current sociopolitical-economic conditions (a State owned monopoly that is neglected by the State...).

I'd say look at China, and the neighboring countries.

Chinese wet season is coming, mine all you can now.



https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-bitcoin-mining-farms-antminer

CBOE lost out to CME  hmm  they opened at  the true peak numbers of 19900  in dec 2017.

Shorters made money  and a lot of it.

Might be better to see them off market trades for a while.

There's talk that CBOE is going to abandon BTC futures. Betting Venezuela coming back on helped too.

https://news.bitcoin.com/cboe-discontinues-bitcoin-futures-for-now/

Well we had a good spike today.

So is power back up in Venezuela?

Or is it that  we are now past 4000 a coin?

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/13/americas/venezuela-blackout-restored-intl/index.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-breaks-4-000-top-150500107.html

Just  that  it is not a lot  of gear always hard to know how much as factors of hashrate are very complex.

I would wager that when the government took miners off people because it became illegal it just meant the government were now mining with those miners.. internally or privately doesn't matter.. any miner that made it to venezuela with heavily subsidised power is surely mining whether in the hands of an official or a private person secretly... though I do think it's nowhere near as much as 2% or even 1% I reckon it's probably more like just over 0.5% which is about 14,000 miners or so..

having said that, I reckon almost all of these 11,000 are presumably mining and I assume were S9's because they were in the country before it was illegal whereas I reckon there have been a lot of imports of dated miners to venezuela by gangsters because of such cheap electricity they'd use basically free S7's or something where they could.. thoughts?
https://www.el-carabobeno.com/desmantelado-galpon-moneda-virtual-bitcoin-carabobo/

Well knowing human nature some people were mining.

Like you I would think under 2 or 1 %  of the worlds hash.  Lets say 400 to 800 ph at max.

If we know when power comes back up we can look for a spike upwards on this chart from bitcoinwisdom.

Isn't most mining in Venezuela been illegal for a couple years? I know several guys who had to shut down and sell off in 2017/2018. The current blackout probably didn't have much effect on the global hashrate.

good point  I wonder how much hash is in Venezuela.

I watched a piece on this late last night.  This is a good reason for having ownership of coins.  Any government can become unstable so ownership of BTC can bail you out. I remember Cypress froze everyone's bank account but some people had BTC to help them survive.

Good luck to Venezuela's people I hope this settles soon as I hate to see regular working people suffer.

Venezuela grid is down, many miners are out of power.

https://twitter.com/AKurmanaev/status/1104961409731960832

This is the interesting question

we have seen the network as high as 57,000,000,000gh on its highest day.

and highest jump closed at 53,300,000,000gh

it is now at 41,000,000,000gh   a huge drop.

So  if coins jump to 8k fast  how fast does diff jump?

There used to be long lags and I know some places shut down, but my guess is if coins jump to 8k

diff will chase it down quickly maybe 2 or 3 jumps.

I wonder how much above 57,000,000,000 one day high is out there..

10000 s15s       =  280ph
10000 t15s       =  210ph
10000 s11s      =  180ph
10000 m10s      = 310ph
10000 t2turbos  = 250ph

1000 ph =
1,000,000 th =
1,000,000,000 gh

this would be  only a drop in the bucket  if 57,000,000,000gh was the all time high

maybe you could get a longer time then 6 weeks to catch up to the 8k price level

It is kind of exciting to think  what could happen with a good bull run.

but the low was 3100 back in Nov 2018

we had the low of 180 back in Jan 2015  runup started in  oct 2016 was 600  june 2017 was 2500 sept 2017 was 4300   then to the moon in dec 2017

so jan 2015 to dec 2017 was close to a 3 year cycle.
so jan 2015 to oct 2016 = 22 months to move from 180 to 600

Nov 2018 = bottom  means only 4 months into price recovery.

I prefer  this lateral move  for all of 2019  we shall see what happens.

I like it, I think when I checked last night it was supposed to be  +.5 , can't argue with those numbers. It's really nice having a steady level for a while. I really don't miss those repeated double digit jumps, nice that they feel like so long ago already.

I'm hoping that as we move into summer baring any large price swings we stay steady even with the more efficient gear. Things are going to get warmer and with most gear having efficiency settings I'm hoping a lot of operations are put in a position to run that way. That will of course leave a big jump at the flick of a switch somewhere down the road.

Jump was a small drop. .  .05%

But. That means two more weeks of decent hashrates.

But in this case it does kind of matter since it would mean bitmain is speculating that LTC jumps in price for the ½ of it that is coming up.

ltc has many many many ASICs and it could affect power allocation for many miners.

BTC next diff looking good for a flat:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

On the other hand litecoin diff keep raising:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty

Makes me wonder if Bitmain is building next gen scrypt miner and filling warehouse giving a little break for BTC.