Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 17. (Read 9456 times)

Sickening to look at.

So the era of flat diff is pretty much done.

We are looking at 11% and a diff of 8.7

11% is a lot of new gear.

More then 5eh
More then 5000ph
More then 5000000th

100 s17        = 5,000th
1000 s17      = 50,000th
10000 s17.   = 500,000th
100,000 s17   = 5,000,000th

So this jump will be as if 100,000 s17 have been added to network.

Some days we have been over 67,000,000th

A far cry from when I started in 2012 we were at 21 th

67m th

I wonder how easy we can keep adding

5 to 7m th each jump.

Well with price supporting a diff of 8.7 and keeping the s9 on line

We will grow.  

I estimate more then 40eh of hash is s9

S9 mining still turns profits at 10 cent power.
When diff gets to 12t
If s9 are 40 eh
And newer gear is 60eh we could go flat again
As that 40eh of s9 will not be doing well at a diff of 12t and a price of 11111.11


So at a diff of 12.0th with a price of 11111.11 I see flatline again.

Of course when we reach 12.0th if price has moved to 15000 no flatline diff as all those s9s are still good.

As of right now the s9 most likely is more then 1/2 the network. And as long as it remains on line it will serve to slow diff growth.

closing in on july 4th holiday

were are up 90 blocks about 9%

this jump  i adding 141th.

moving from 670 to 811 in clifton.

and about 50 on the th  that will be about 861th.

we plan to add 161 from July to august   getting us to 971 in clifton plus my small side deal of 50th.

Just over 1ph.  can't find any gear any more.  so growth will stop for a while.

it would be nice to see diff mover slower then 7-10% a jump  but I am thinking we shoot  past

8 this jump----------------- say 8.4 on july 9-10
9 next jump---------------- then 9.5 on july 23-24
10 jumps after that-------- and 10.6 on august 8th

Well  last jump was 7%  to a record  diff close of 7.937

this jump is +10%  right now


Now lets analyze   current numbers compared to Oct 2018

Oct 2018   diff of 7.4 price of 6200   network  efficiency of 100 watts a th (estimated)

June 2019 diff of 7.9 price of  11700 network efficiency of 70 watts a th (estimated)

A guy with 100th burning  11000 watts     made $347.70 USD a day in Dec 2017
A guy with  100th burning 10000 watts     made $20.96 usd a day    in Oct 2018
A guy with  100th burning   7000 watts   makes $37.06  usd a day    in June 2019

So it is pretty obvious for a miner we are no where near Dec 2017 levels of profit
But for a trader  11,700 is fairly close to 19,900

As a miner I see more profits ahead for me   as I do close to 70 watts a th.  and I have good power deals.
I would expand more if I could get gear at a good price.

1 s17     40 watts a th   53th
1 s15     60 watts a th   28th
1 t15     70 watts a th    23th
8 m10s  72 watts a th  230th
1 m20    50 watts a th   68th
2 a1041 65 watts a th    62th

all of the above is my more efficient gear.  464 th in all

2x t17's coming in
1x m20 coming in
1x t3t 39 coming in
1x t3t 50 coming in

237th of efficient gear coming    will total 701th of more efficient gear.

and about 290th of gear at 100 watts a th.

if  the worse we go to is oct 2018 levels I would be turning a profit.
if we drop to dec 2018 levels I would still turn a profit.

The purpose of the 2 diff threads started  in oct 2018  was to help miners chart a course for expansion. I went from 50-60th to just about 1ph in under a year.

I used partners to find good power deals
I purchased a lot of cheap  gear  dec 2018 to March 2019
I need to slow my expansion now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Error_bar

they pre-sold 4 demos on this website this was when btc was about 4k.
I paid 0.5btc for mine 2045 USD

once price skyrocketed they went to really long preorders  oct and now sold out.

here  are some  videos on my m20s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpyIHm9Z6BE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jnkELiOSYu4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kt7ud68dmSM

it is now in clifton nj at the farm

I imagine it's a lot worse than "sucking the sweat of an alive mans balls" and ya both are just about negative   , I might watch that movie this weekend.


any links ? sources ? actual data? thanks



Did whatsminer release the M20s already? wasn't it suppose to be released by Aug 2019?

So,at 2003 blocks 13 to go.

About 7%

Coins 13750 dropped to 11800 up to 13025.

Nice diff jump.

I went from 520 th to 655th.
 today.

We added 1 m20s
We added 2 repaired m10s.

Around 135th.

We have
 1 20s due.  68th
 2 a1041.    75th.   this  comes this week


 1 t17.        39th
 1 t3t39.     39th
 1 t3t50.     50th.  This comes in july

That is 281th we will be close to 925th very soon

You and me both. I'm kinda kicking myself for cashing out 0.5BTC at $9200 last weekend. This run is lasting a lot longer than I expected. But hey, business is booming.

Up 6.7% in diff

Price touched 12,000 I am impressed.

So we are at :


price is $10,862.91

according to coinbase.

on June 13 price was 8,240
on June 13 diff was   7.409

if we jump to 7.9 diff say  6.627%

price should be 8786 usd not 10,862

so        7.409 to 7.9 = 6.627%
and 8240 to 10,862 = 31.82%

Translation : lots of pressure to rise diff next jump

BCH pump incoming it all ready took 1,5K Phs from BTC.

It looks it might maintain only 2.5% increase.

Just broke past 11,000  so basically  diff will follow this like mad.


It gets interesting how do we arrive at proper diff proper price.
vs what diff and price actually are.

Well at 10 cent power

s-9 set to 80 watt mode via braiins earns 10 x 0.00003457 = 0.00034570 btc a day
at a cost of .8 x 24 = 19.2 kwatts lets make it 20 kwatts at 11,100usd = 3.83  - 2.00 for power 1.83 profit a day

s-9 set to 100 watts mode "  "         "       14 x 0.00003457 = 0.00048398 btc a day
at a cost of 1.4 x 24 =33.6 kwatts lets make it 34 kwatts at 11,100usd  = 5.37 - 3.40 for power 1.97 profit a day

So the 10 cent power rule for mining has become true again  

Never mind if you have a ton of m10s
or if you have s15's

or better yet you got in early with s17s.

We will be seeing FOMO.

I want to remind  people  s-9s went for 3000+ in dec 2017

now an s-9 did 0.00238 btc a day at 19900 in dec 2017  or 47.36 usd - 3.40 = 43.98 a day profit.  So if we reach   profit levels of 2017 at a diff of say 11/12 by this December prices will move way up.
More than 3x what we have today.

I was talking about diff , dust off them s7s lol jk

10,700 last I looked

Buckle up guys, Where about to be in for a ride.

They seem to shrink the range as it approaches block 2016/1 of each jump.

The problem is a tiny range under 0.1%  as they reach the last 10 blocks.

If ten blocks are done in 1 hour or in 3 hours  the range is way bigger then 0.1%

To pick how long any ten blocks will take is not easy. So a tiny range near the end is simply going to miss a lot.

I actually don’t care about that range. I look at blocks ahead or blocks behind .  Also it is done more for conversation generation. I ended the giveaway for picking the diff years ago. As it lacked fun factor for me.

These threads started in oct 2018 were done to get a feel of other opinions of diff/price/profit in two three four month ranges.

Right now
Diff of 7.4 price of 10300 s17 pro at 40 watts

oct 4 2018
diff of 7.4 price of 6200  m10 at 70 watts.

So for miners things are better.  And the pressure on diff to go up is strong.

They don't try to be spot on.
They predict a range.
Look at what you actually post

The problem is that range is completely wrong.
No idea how they even come up with it.
A range ALREADY implies there are factors that cannot be determined ... which in BTC mining ... is luck and hash rate changes.

heh, the bit "suck the sweat off of a hogs balls" is from the movie Good Morning Vietnam where Robin Williams I belive is commenting on the commander above him or some such thing.

edit: just checked and the line actually is Robin's character reading messages on the radio from soldiers in the field, ""Captain Hauk sucks the sweat off of a dead mans balls." I have no idea what that means, but it seems very negative to me". -Good Morning Vietnam ...

either one fits my views on those who created said coins.

These are all pure speculations, there is no guarantee any of it will come true, a dozen of gears can come online in a minute, i do not expect anyone to be a spot on in predicting what will the next diff be , i doubt anybody does either.