Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 23. (Read 9460 times)

I used the lowest one which is rated for 50th at mid speed.

There are 4 models  some are 2 speed and some are 3 speed.

A lot of variation in them.

That if we consider all to be s17, if the jump would be only made of s17 there would be only about 20k pieces.
Let's say that some are retiring older gear and putting more efficient s17 in place and we could add... .I'll just throw a wild guess at maximum another 20k.

I've read the other thread about some speculation how much gear bitmain has sold but seems like nobody knows for sure.
100k pieces and no s9 retired, throw in some M20, ...20-25% up in the next month?
Of course, the price will also leave a mark but adding that makes it simply impossible to speculate.


I would bet on it happening well before July.

we are at +2.36%


I guess it is a reflection of the s17's coming into the wild.

we are near 51,500,000 TH   which  is about 1 million s17s.

I'm glad we've been holding steady for now. I F'd up my cable inventory and have been down an M10 for a little over a week. I hate to waste these good times before the rise, hopefully I'll have it up and running by the end of the week. I know it's still early but until I start seeing predictions of 6-12% swings it feels like the network isn't getting hammered by any of the new gear.

Would be nice to stay even or drop off a bit all the way until the demo M20 arrives. The garage is almost ready for that.

about ½ there and negative   -1.1%


pretty good numbers as of now.

well it is early  a fast jump can happen

we are 557 blocks in and should be at 566

won't take much to shift up.

I see a 16% jump  from now to August 24th as no issue.

Yeah, this totally weird
Most of us have said it before, there is probably no gear available, not enough time to order it, not enough room or energy available to plug in for current miners, etc etc etc, that part is covered, there is no going up soon!

BUT!
Going down? Yeah, it's just some 0.67% that could still be triggered by luck but, still weird seeing that is still going down after the retarget. If it were a luck variation we would see bounce back a little...

BTC is up and

Diff is down = sweeeeet

Hashrate prediction is at best a 5 to 20 day ability to be fairly accurate.  Unless of course you know the top 10 mining farms personally and what they are planning to do mining wise.

My current 600-620 th  hash rate  has 20-23 s9's most set to mid speed.  which is really high speed on the 2018 firmware.

say 13.5 th at 1300 watts  say 20x that or 270th at 26000 watts.

I can set them all to low speed or 9.5 th at 770 watts in under an hour

thus 190 th at  15400 watts     gives me 10600 watts free or 3 m20's doing 210 th at 10000 watts

so 190+210 = 400 th vs current 270th  in s9's

and over all 620th jumps to 750th  with a tiny bit less power use.

Economics dictate to me that I should do this. I would have already done this if I could get the 3 m20's at 2048  each with the old tax of 2.6%
I can't do that so to be safe I got 1 unit for 2048 and very likely will pay 27.6% tax so it will be more like 2600  come may 10 - may 20.

I am not the only miner with s9's turning a profit  loss of us would want to get m20's or s17's to slowly replace the s9's which at first we would lower to 9.5th at 770 watts.

So far this is yet to be happening   since my 620 th turns to 750 th or a jump of  about 20% hashrate.  I find it an easy prediction to see a 15-20% jump from now til Sept 1.

If large miners follow my safer method above it is going to happen  barring
 a) huge price drop on coins
 b) all new gear sucks
 c) not mac new gear is sold

This whole thread is kind of a guide to expand or not expand or sell off your farms.

---

Edit looks like new gear is getting set up.


maybe some s17's  or of course a shit ton of good luck variance.

That's a very good point. I had been going through a few different sites to try and get a feel if any seem to be better than others. Mostly it seems they just use different intervals for plotting data points on the graph where I was looking used 12 hours. Part of why I always try to guesstimate my own trend line looking back at the graphs.

Kind of shitty with so many moving parts that it's hard to really nail down a good average hashrate day to day. To get a good feel you would want to look at several Diff adjustment periods, but that again only really helps you know where you were, not necessarily where you are now. You can of course speculate and attempt to extrapolate where you think things are going.

It wasn't really until you said this that it clicked for me that when I notice these supposed drops in hashrate that we are on a run of long block find times.

That all said let's enjoy the steady times, with any luck I'll get my M20 before things get to crazy.

So, someone does know how to post a piece of information without being a complete jerk , that's a good improvement


Yes got to enjoy it while it lasts.

My analysis on price is that we should have some correction to possibly 3800/4200 by next month, this should give us a  good 1 to 2 months for same or a bit less difficulty, but starting from june/july we should witness an up trend in both difficulty and price.

nice two more good weeks of mining coming up.

-0.63%

DIFF CHANGE: hi=572544 delta=-0.63% new=6353030562984.0 prev=6393023717201.9

01:51:16 UTC

Planning your builds in advance is a challenge.  During  the last 5 months I have  built a 630th btc and 10gh ltc build.

I know a lot about economics of mining and use it to plan build outs.

This thread helps me to decide what to do and it helps me to plan as my build out uses 70kwatts an hour or 50,000 k-watts a month at 10 cent = 5000 usd at 5 cents = 2500 usd.
I track this to help decide what to do with new gear i add.
I know for the next 2 weeks I will earn about 0.0242 btc a day or  0.3388 btc for the jump.

About 10 days into a jump  with 500-600 blocks to go I can reasonably predict 20 days of earnings.

Since I am still in expansion and want to go to 1500 th I have an ides how quickly to build out.  They are also fun to watch. Sadly I stopped give away etc for the predictions a while back.  I also stopped the threads for more then a year.

I knew the Trump tax would hurt growth of btc diff. bigly   So Back in Oct of 2018 a few weeks after the Trump tax started I began the threads.

If trump tax did not exist I know we would have 1 ph right now and more s15's more t15's more m10's.

I can safely say I think we are absolutely negative this jump. Which is Sweet.

I also forsee a good jump due to s17's shipping out.  So far no one has claimed to get a shipping notice  I think people will get some shipping info this coming week as soon as Easter is over.  (I know Easter is not a big Holiday in China) But DHL and Fedex and UPS  workers take off in other parts of the World so I think bitmain waits till Mon-Wed to ship some of this gear.


With a cold streak maybe -2%.

Just a reminder again ... even a full day's mining is a VERY poor accuracy representation of the network hash rate.

It rises and drops every day by greater amounts due to luck than due to miners moving and switching on/off.

Find a site with an accurate confidence interval in their data ... though I doubt that exists

They are ALL based on the luck of block finding, and none of them seem to know much about the statistics of that ...

Doesn't appear to be the case, not sure if it had briefly spiked to being more profitable in the last 12 hours. I think that would have shown up on the chart I was looking at as it compares the 2. I'm guessing we should have seen something like 6 EH, purely a guess using wide outliers for peaks and valleys. It does seem to happen every now and then though with about the same bottom 31-36 EH. Then it goes back up like nothing happened.

I was real green when BCH first forked off, made a bunch of terrible decisions. I stopped the auto-profit switching about the same time I gave up the notion of needing hourly/daily payouts.


I've said the same thing many times. I was especially grateful through 2018 for any reprieve from the Diff adjustments. Right now I consider them a 10% Diff cushion that I hope doesn't drop like a hammer. Mind you after a couple 20% Diff jumps I think I could handle it, but doubt it will ever come to that.

you need to use this link > https://cash.coin.dance/blocks/hashrate/log  for a better view (chart)

notice that Nov of last year BCH (both sv and abc combined) had about 10 EH , as for today both hardly have 3 EH , just 1 EH higher from last month's data ( about 2 EH).

as much as i dislike these shitcoins, i do like that fact that they help keeping btc difficulty a bit lower , also given the fact that once we enter a bull run, those coins will most likely ( as always ) have higher price increment, so a good % of the total hashrate will always be pointed towards those coins.

Check https://coin.dance/ (can't get to it from work) did BCH move down enough in difficulty to become more profitable to mine?

I know viabtc and a few others have a stratum server that will auto switch between the 2 based on profitability at that moment. Never-mind that it takes a day for it to mature enough to be sold.

Same with some alts, every once in a while some other SHA coin pops up and someone moves a bunch of hash to it. I used to play that game and long ago gave up.

-Dave

So this mornings been a little weird. We are looking at -2 ish, according to fork.lol

When I was checking the Network hashrate, about 1/3 appears to have dropped off in the last couple of hours. Looks like similar dips happened April 14th and 13th. It'll be a day or so before we get a better picture of it, I just find it weird to see such drastic dips occur.

Here we are today
Note screen shots are from blockchain.com



our all time peak is below



We will pass this peak in the summer.