Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 18. (Read 9460 times)

Yes they can provide the luck related information.
At the moment the one that seems to be preferred to be quoted here all the time is providing ranges ... but they are always wrong

Lol that last part , is it original ? Coz i never heard it before.

 Anyhow he makes a valid sense, we know that BTC diff and hashrate are effected by shity abc n sv and the other shit coins, I did post something similar here a while go , showing a good amount of hash left btc and got pointed to the fake btc pair, i guess as long as the main point is still on btc related stuff , it can be discussed here. 

If you want to discuss other sha256 coins then do it in the shitcoin altcoin areas.
Those behind BitCH and the other crapcoins can go suck the sweat off of a hogs balls.

 How are they suppose to show luck? It is not like there is a mathematical equation they would apply and tell you ok based on luck and current hashrate next diff is xxxxx.

Why do you assume it's something they don't understand? Chances are they do understand but nothing they can do about it and they expect everyone who sees those numbers understands that there is a missing factor called luck which can effect the final number drastically.

In addition to the "clock up and clock down" there is the option of moving an SHA256 miner to one of the other Bitcoin forks (e.g. BCH). After all somebody has to do it to keep those forks alive, don't they?

To keep everybody happy, perhaps the owners of that mining hardware use their gear for a different purpose which then takes it away from Bitcoin mining for a while (similar to powering off like Phil suggested), but maybe not actually powered off.

Sure  if I have 1 s-9  set to 8th  and every has all gear maxed the net work is at 99.9999?   but not at 100%

Point is and was that  cheap s-9s  set to 80 watts a th could be in the 1,000,000 plus range I know for sure of at least 1 of them.

We see lots of swings now but more or less within  a set range  which while there is always luck  most gear now is easily clocked up and down.

Doesn't really make it a fact tho does it?

Let’s pretend the whole network is s-9. We know it isn’t but s9 allows 80 watt to 100 watt a th settings.

An s9 set to 8th = possible
An s9 set to 14th = possible..

Or let’s pretend the entire network is m10

An m10 set to 20 th is possible
An m10 set to 33 th is possible.

So all daily hash rate numbers are subject to huge swings.

I know lots of people think balls to the wall all out mining.

Fact is only some of the network is maxed.

This is always going to be true as I don’t max any gear.
So at least some gear is on more efficiency settings at all times.

Even if it is only me.
So as I have said with bitdeer a swing of 6 to 9 eh is possible.

My gear can swing from 500 to 750th. Due to my settings choice.

Part of these swings are luck.
Part of these swings are people shifting gear up and down their efficiency settings.
So daily tracking is not the goal with the thread.
Daily tracking is a method used to make predictions on middle term difficulty.

By middle term 4-9 jumps.

1 or 2 jumps is pretty easy.

26 jump prediction is hard to do. Really hard.

When I did the first thread back in October of 2018 I picked the exact turning point of difficulty pattern alteration.

It is always true to be lucky is much better then to be good. So I am simply a lucky guy.
Or maybe I smart and have a method to my madness.

To be frank I am surprised that diff is still lagging with the price rise we had.
We are equal to October’s high or close enough.
And in October a 70 watt m10 was the best miner.
Now a 40 watt s17 is the best miner.
And coins moved from 6200 to 9300...

With these changes diff seems destined to rise.
An s17 turns a profit at 12 cent price for power.
An s17 turns a profit at 17 cent price for power.

So desire for the s17 is sky high.
And only a handful are available at high premiums via brokers.

Btw the idea of brokers getting the gear but other not getting the gear seems to be a new twist.
I have not seen this done to this extent.

Since no company has short delivery times diff is on hold. A bit.

... again why I regularly say it's pointless to take notice of any diff change data without proper statistical analysis.

Luck is actually the biggest factor in any of these web site's data, and they clearly do not even understand that and do not show that.

10.3 is very doable, tons of gears will come online by then , a few hours ago we were at around 10 blocks behind and about -1% ( can't recall the exact percentage but it was negative) now we are  more than 40 blocks ahead or +5.5%




I am sure many S9s are waiting to come back online but the new gears might stop them,I so want to know the exact figures of many S15/S17s bitmain managed to make 

Yeah I figure Oct 1 to be at 10.3   vs the 7.4

As all the preorders should be in.

Yea August is going to be brutal.

Bitmain just cranked up bitdeer for a while.

These jump up and back down moves match a 6eh farm cranking up to 9eh and back down to 6eh. Rinse and repeat.  They can do this on and on and on and on.

At 6eh they pay all the coin to bitdeer share holders and profit extra off the power savings.

They will now crank to 9eh for a few days.

the extra profit doing that  is the power spent For that 3eh is about 1eh of power.

Two days or three days,before the jump they will back off thus making the jump 1 or 2 %.

This will not end until  Microbit Avalon Inno bitfury release enough gear to make bitmain simply do the 9eh all the time.  For now slow growth is simply encouraging long pre orders.

August and sept should be very interesting for difficulty growth.

ok there she goes


almost 20 blocks ahead, BTC is above 9.1k , does not seem like it want to have any major correction before at least 10-11k , I am expecting this change will be at 10% or more, I hope I am wrong tho.

The last 8.5 months have been good for all of us that grew their farms.
The Diff went sideways from Oct 4 to now June 17th  just about 0 growth.
Price moved from around 6200 to 9300 close to 50% growth.
Added bonus an s9  did 80-85 watts with December firmware from bitmain.
The s17 does 36-39 watts. Better then a 50% drop in power costs.

So all s9's  about 100 th worth set to low power  used 8250 watts  at 10 cent power you made 1.69
that same setup makes 12.44 a day at 10 cent power.

If you switch to s17 now 100th uses 3750 watts at 10 cent power  you earn 23.24 usd a day.

So people that kept the faith at 10 cent power are now okay. If you were a low power miner under 5 cents you did very well.

Good news indeed.  Yeah  this year has been good for me and buysolar. 

Wouldn't bother me at all. The last couple months' gains (plus the resulting increase in business) are building GekkoScience a shop. So long, rent!

LOL...will 2nd that wish

I want 10025 for dad's day!

While still pretty early, cryptothis says we have finished 343 blocks, with only 321 expected at this time, so well into positive territory. BTC prices is on a tear and now at $9275. I personally expect some serious "resistance" for price at the "magical" price of $10K.

Just a late report from Minnesota.