So whose freakin' bright idea was today's 10% dump?
$7-8k jump, heck I'd settle for $4k stable right now.
Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us? - page 28. (Read 9455 times)
January 10, 2019, 06:50:03 PM
January 08, 2019, 09:04:05 PM
What about the people upgrading to more efficient asic miners? I see the diff slowly coming up again with BTC price at 4k...
and highest peak was 57,000,000,000 GH/s
we are at 43,000,000,000 GH/s
so 14,000,000,000 is MIA
along with maybe 6,000,000,000 that was added.
I figure 20,000,000,000 in s-9's a841's are offline say 20,000,000,000/13,000 = 1,500,000 pieces of gear.
we are at 43,000,000,000 GH/s
so 14,000,000,000 is MIA
along with maybe 6,000,000,000 that was added.
I figure 20,000,000,000 in s-9's a841's are offline say 20,000,000,000/13,000 = 1,500,000 pieces of gear.
I am guessing that as m10's s15's and t15's
Buying m10's and s15's and t15's = high risk purchase as the gear is not very cheap.
But I just order an m10 less then 1 hour ago
https://www.blockchain.com/btc/address/34Mj1a99qWdEGDanQpQH5AWfS6TFbCdqqF
January 07, 2019, 01:35:59 AM
What about the people upgrading to more efficient asic miners? I see the diff slowly coming up again with BTC price at 4k...
January 06, 2019, 02:00:13 PM
well top average was
and highest peak was 57,000,000,000 GH/s
we are at 43,000,000,000 GH/s
so 14,000,000,000 is MIA
along with maybe 6,000,000,000 that was added.
I figure 20,000,000,000 in s-9's a841's are offline say 20,000,000,000/13,000 = 1,500,000 pieces of gear.
We have no idea what could come back if coins jump to 8k
but picking 10 cent power
at the next price sets below
4k a coin an s9 loses 83 cents a day
5k a coin an s9 loses 27 cents a day
6k a coin an s9 makes 30 cents a day
7k a coin an s9 makes 87 cents a day
8k a coin an s9 makes 1.41 usd a day
picking 9 cent power
4k a coin an s9 loses 53 cents a day
5k a coin an s9 makes 43 cents a day
6k a coin an s9 makes 61 cents a day
7k a coin an s9 makes $1.18 a day
8k a coin an s9 makes $1.79 a day
so If we do a price jump to 7 or 8k a coin a lot of gear is coming on.
I don't bother with BCH/fork
but if it goes to 600-800 it will add hash in a heartbeat.
I could see huge ramp ups happening if price does a solid spike.
I kind of want things to drift around for a while since that works for me.
Quote from: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Nov 01 2018 7,184,404,942,701 0.02% 51,427,973,784 GH/s
and highest peak was 57,000,000,000 GH/s
we are at 43,000,000,000 GH/s
so 14,000,000,000 is MIA
along with maybe 6,000,000,000 that was added.
I figure 20,000,000,000 in s-9's a841's are offline say 20,000,000,000/13,000 = 1,500,000 pieces of gear.
We have no idea what could come back if coins jump to 8k
but picking 10 cent power
at the next price sets below
4k a coin an s9 loses 83 cents a day
5k a coin an s9 loses 27 cents a day
6k a coin an s9 makes 30 cents a day
7k a coin an s9 makes 87 cents a day
8k a coin an s9 makes 1.41 usd a day
picking 9 cent power
4k a coin an s9 loses 53 cents a day
5k a coin an s9 makes 43 cents a day
6k a coin an s9 makes 61 cents a day
7k a coin an s9 makes $1.18 a day
8k a coin an s9 makes $1.79 a day
so If we do a price jump to 7 or 8k a coin a lot of gear is coming on.
I don't bother with BCH/fork
but if it goes to 600-800 it will add hash in a heartbeat.
I could see huge ramp ups happening if price does a solid spike.
I kind of want things to drift around for a while since that works for me.
January 06, 2019, 12:27:59 PM
Maybe another clue to the answer is what will all them manufacturers be doing with their gears too, which we'll see from sales? So we see the obvious guys like Bitmain already well into contraction and redundancy modes, and they already couldn't fulfill orders so we can say no gear from them waiting in the wings.
But what about those alternative guys already putting out rigs and chips? They're not going to sell below cost price, so they either have to wait til their prices are profitable, or start mining themselves (which they don't seem to be doing), or sell them gear now to cut losses.
Thing is we don't know where all this gear is.
But what about those alternative guys already putting out rigs and chips? They're not going to sell below cost price, so they either have to wait til their prices are profitable, or start mining themselves (which they don't seem to be doing), or sell them gear now to cut losses.
Thing is we don't know where all this gear is.
January 06, 2019, 10:23:42 AM
Many mining ops went bankrupt. Unless big players buy them back , hashrate won't go back online soon.
I expect a more reasonable hashrate grow. Under 2 digits for next months ( I hope )
I expect a more reasonable hashrate grow. Under 2 digits for next months ( I hope )
January 04, 2019, 10:37:29 AM
But how much of that gear is simply just sitting there waiting to be plugged in vs already junked?
Good question. The only way for an answer is coins jump to 7 or 8 k fast.
January 04, 2019, 10:34:29 AM
But how much of that gear is simply just sitting there waiting to be plugged in vs already junked?
January 03, 2019, 10:59:33 AM
Not so easy. Diff can go down with BTC price flat or up and can go up with btc price down.
Two big reasons.. sha256 is not only BTC and hardware changes
Two big reasons.. sha256 is not only BTC and hardware changes
Third reason is Current hash rate of 40,219,475,700 GH/s does not reflect about:
15,000,000,000 to 20,000,000,000 GH/s in gear that is turned off. So we could have a huge amount of gear turned back on if either
BTC
BCH/fork
get a good price jump. The network has never had that much idle gear
idle hash $paul rate is at an all-time high
January 03, 2019, 10:54:34 AM
Shouldn't the question be about the hashrate instead? Diff is simply a reaction to hashrate, since a new block should be found every 10 minutes. Of course there is a delay, since the diff adjusts every 2016 blocks, but its still a reaction of the hashrate at that point.
Miners come and go according to prices, a little like oil. When the price goes down, expensive places like Alaska and northern sea oil rigs shut down. The same is what happens to miners in (electricity) expensive countries.
So it all boils down to the Bitcoin price. If it goes up, more miners come, increasing the hashrate and in response the diff goes up.
If the price remains stable, the hashrate should slowly increase because better asics are coming. MicroBT seems to be displacing Bitmain with far more efficient miners, which people upgrade to pushing the hashrate up and forcing the older models out.
Unless the price goes down, its natural that the hashrate (and therefore diff) slowly goes up.
Miners come and go according to prices, a little like oil. When the price goes down, expensive places like Alaska and northern sea oil rigs shut down. The same is what happens to miners in (electricity) expensive countries.
So it all boils down to the Bitcoin price. If it goes up, more miners come, increasing the hashrate and in response the diff goes up.
If the price remains stable, the hashrate should slowly increase because better asics are coming. MicroBT seems to be displacing Bitmain with far more efficient miners, which people upgrade to pushing the hashrate up and forcing the older models out.
Unless the price goes down, its natural that the hashrate (and therefore diff) slowly goes up.
Not so easy. Diff can go down with BTC price flat or up and can go up with btc price down.
Two big reasons.. sha256 is not only BTC and hardware changes
January 02, 2019, 03:18:19 PM
as we speak the next diff adjustment will be after 1736 blocks or 11 days based on current hashrate, assuming the hashrate would fall by -99% right now, the 1% remaining miners won't be making 99% more btc through out the difficulty round. the next difficulty will take much longer than 11 days and the 1% remaining miners will have to mine the 1736 alone before the difficulty responds to the hashrate drop, same things goes for when hashrate increases.
Yes i saw that when bch came along and the network hashrate suddenly dropped, leading to 60min blocks until it adjusted and things went back to normal...
January 02, 2019, 08:59:22 AM
difficulty is what matter for calculating your "current" profit.
as we speak the next diff adjustment will be after 1736 blocks or 11 days based on current hashrate, assuming the hashrate would fall by -99% right now, the 1% remaining miners won't be making 99% more btc through out the difficulty round. the next difficulty will take much longer than 11 days and the 1% remaining miners will have to mine the 1736 alone before the difficulty responds to the hashrate drop, same things goes for when hashrate increases.
the example is a little bit extreme, but it's just to show you the point that hash-rate does not really matter for our main conern here which is how much btc can we mine.
while difficulty is mainly based on hashrate, from mining profit point of you hashrate is not an important aspect for the immediate term.
as we speak the next diff adjustment will be after 1736 blocks or 11 days based on current hashrate, assuming the hashrate would fall by -99% right now, the 1% remaining miners won't be making 99% more btc through out the difficulty round. the next difficulty will take much longer than 11 days and the 1% remaining miners will have to mine the 1736 alone before the difficulty responds to the hashrate drop, same things goes for when hashrate increases.
the example is a little bit extreme, but it's just to show you the point that hash-rate does not really matter for our main conern here which is how much btc can we mine.
while difficulty is mainly based on hashrate, from mining profit point of you hashrate is not an important aspect for the immediate term.
January 01, 2019, 09:25:27 PM
@ yankees hush don't let people know what I am up to. You don't know it all.
Yes I want some s15's and t15's to simply see if they are any good.
I am doing a major build out and while it will be solar (s9s are good enough)
I will have 3 m10's and want an s15 and t15 along with the s9's and l3+
Diff
hashrate
gear eff
coin price
gear price
power price
all matter and the ratios change
ie 10 cent power is great if the gear earns 45 cent an hour
but a lot of the time 10 cent power is not enough
5 cent becomes the border number
And this thread is a bit more flexible and does allow for more outside the box predictions
Yes I want some s15's and t15's to simply see if they are any good.
I am doing a major build out and while it will be solar (s9s are good enough)
I will have 3 m10's and want an s15 and t15 along with the s9's and l3+
Diff
hashrate
gear eff
coin price
gear price
power price
all matter and the ratios change
ie 10 cent power is great if the gear earns 45 cent an hour
but a lot of the time 10 cent power is not enough
5 cent becomes the border number
And this thread is a bit more flexible and does allow for more outside the box predictions
January 01, 2019, 09:19:59 PM
This is a mining speculation thread.
Price does not mean as much as in other threads.
Phils point is not hashrate it is diff rate which is what guides us as to build up or down.
Any one that followed the the last thread and bought cheap gear say nov 1 made more money then if the held coin.
Sematics of mining and what to do about mining decisions based on daily hashrate or biweekly diff rate are a part of the puzzle of profitable mining.
Phil always pushed cheap power as an important leg in the the game.
He has solar deals as part of his mining methods. So seeing a 90 day trend can help him decide what gear to buy next.
I know he grabbed some m10's and was looking into t15 and s15 the last few days. I think he believes a shift is going to happen this quarter.
Price does not mean as much as in other threads.
Phils point is not hashrate it is diff rate which is what guides us as to build up or down.
Any one that followed the the last thread and bought cheap gear say nov 1 made more money then if the held coin.
Sematics of mining and what to do about mining decisions based on daily hashrate or biweekly diff rate are a part of the puzzle of profitable mining.
Phil always pushed cheap power as an important leg in the the game.
He has solar deals as part of his mining methods. So seeing a 90 day trend can help him decide what gear to buy next.
I know he grabbed some m10's and was looking into t15 and s15 the last few days. I think he believes a shift is going to happen this quarter.
January 01, 2019, 09:10:07 PM
when the diff adjustment hits like it did on dec 31st it stays still until 2016 blocks. then moves up down or flat
the hash changes constantly up down sideways on each and every block.
a 10 min block = diff flat
an 11 min block = diff down
a 9 min block = diff up
but you need wait 2016 blocks to get the new block
gray line is current hash rate for last 504 blocks
blue line is current hash rate for last 1008 blocks
red line is current hash rate for last 2016 blocks
the hash changes constantly up down sideways on each and every block.
a 10 min block = diff flat
an 11 min block = diff down
a 9 min block = diff up
but you need wait 2016 blocks to get the new block
gray line is current hash rate for last 504 blocks
blue line is current hash rate for last 1008 blocks
red line is current hash rate for last 2016 blocks
January 01, 2019, 09:00:10 PM
Shouldn't the question be about the hashrate instead? Diff is simply a reaction to hashrate, since a new block should be found every 10 minutes. Of course there is a delay, since the diff adjusts every 2016 blocks, but its still a reaction of the hashrate at that point.
Miners come and go according to prices, a little like oil. When the price goes down, expensive places like Alaska and northern sea oil rigs shut down. The same is what happens to miners in (electricity) expensive countries.
So it all boils down to the Bitcoin price. If it goes up, more miners come, increasing the hashrate and in response the diff goes up.
If the price remains stable, the hashrate should slowly increase because better asics are coming. MicroBT seems to be displacing Bitmain with far more efficient miners, which people upgrade to pushing the hashrate up and forcing the older models out.
Unless the price goes down, its natural that the hashrate (and therefore diff) slowly goes up.
Miners come and go according to prices, a little like oil. When the price goes down, expensive places like Alaska and northern sea oil rigs shut down. The same is what happens to miners in (electricity) expensive countries.
So it all boils down to the Bitcoin price. If it goes up, more miners come, increasing the hashrate and in response the diff goes up.
If the price remains stable, the hashrate should slowly increase because better asics are coming. MicroBT seems to be displacing Bitmain with far more efficient miners, which people upgrade to pushing the hashrate up and forcing the older models out.
Unless the price goes down, its natural that the hashrate (and therefore diff) slowly goes up.
April 01, 2020, 09:45:43 AM
This thread has been deleted to show corona-v is not a joke to me.
April Fools.
not.
April Fools.
not.
December 31, 2018, 04:50:04 PM
I don't know and I am not ready to guess
the linked thread was will difficulty go sideways. And from 10-4 to 12-31 it actually dropped along with price
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/will-btc-difficulty-go-sideways-for-rest-of-the-year-5043713
you can put your guesses and thoughts here.
Diff is first and foremost as this is mining speculation.
I Look forward to your ideas.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Vanitygen
the linked thread was will difficulty go sideways. And from 10-4 to 12-31 it actually dropped along with price
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/will-btc-difficulty-go-sideways-for-rest-of-the-year-5043713
you can put your guesses and thoughts here.
Diff is first and foremost as this is mining speculation.
I Look forward to your ideas.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Vanitygen
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