Considerations concerning the ongoing XMR rally in Poloniex
Fundamentally, XMR looks good, because its support among top BTCers is stronger than the support of any other coin. This provides the long-term rationale for investing into a coin that is not cheap, has high issuance coming for the nearest years, and is practically useless.
Medium-term, the price had declined to a point where there were almost no asks, almost no bids (
BTC60@[0-0.0023]), and no volume (
BTC70 per day). The upturn was inevitable.
Now we are 3.7 days in the uptrend and the price is roughly double what it was at the low point (0.0046 vs. 0.0023). The bid support has more than doubled, however (
BTC200 vs.
BTC60). The bid support has reached values of
BTC300+ at times.
The volume was lethargic at first, testifying to the fact that despite the rapid percentage rise in price, the sellers were not interested in shedding their stashes. Only the last 24 hours volume has been brisk (
BTC420 compared to
BTC130 in the first days of the uptrend).
The rise has roughly followed a pattern where daily highs are set at about midnight GMT. Thus it is likely that the buyers are from the U.S., because this is the prime playtime for them, or perhaps it's the time when both Europeans and East coast can play together.
There is a clear zig-zag pattern of higher daily highs and higher lows. As follows (bottom row is the first day of the uptrend and top is today):
427 (460->650(?))
329 500
285 390
260 349
231 320.
Yesterday saw more rapid price appreciation that the previous days. The nature of crypto booms is that this (superexponential growth, meaning that the percentage increase at least equals the previous day's percentage increase) will likely continue, until there is a breather at some level and then possibly the uptrend resumes. Therefore I predict 0.0065 to be achieved today. Yesterday my private prediction was 0.0044-0.0045 but later the same day there was another upsurge to 0.0050.
I don't see much resistance until we near the previous top (0.0100), because many holders will undoubtedly bet on a double top and plan to sell early. Others undoubtedly want to see XMR price making new highs and since there are many rich Bitcoin holders in the latter camp, the battle is going to be epic
Walls have been used quite liberally, highest ones have been about
BTC100; and
BTC40 is commonplace in both buy and sell side. There is yet no instance that a fakish buy wall has been snatched by a determined seller (some buy walls are fake though in the sense that they are pulled in a downturn). And even if there were, all buyers are solidly on the black with gains up to 100% in less than 4 full days.
The sell walls, on the other hand, may be snatched up to 10% away (like 0.0045 was bought when market was at 0.0041). Yesterday saw at least 4 instances of this happening with the
BTC15-
BTC50 walls in 0.0040, 0.0045 and 0.0050. For those who actually want to sell XMR, this is a paradise, since merely by setting a wall higher than the market, it will be taken. (If you can take the fact that price is rising 15-25% per day
)
Disclosure: I own XMR and my position has been increasing every day during the uptrend, and also most days during the previous downtrend. It has not decreased in any day.
This disclosure may not be used in any way when determining tax and other liabilities, since "I" is undefined and may refer to any entity controlled or influenced by me under any jurisdiction and any official requests for information concerning them will be answered by lawful basis only.
