This question and subsequent answer is one that has been rolling around my noodle for awhile now. While I think I agree with the answer in the immediate time frame, I don't think I do long term.
Many are looking at current global economics and coming to the conclusion that our debt based economies are so severely overspent that their inertia will undoubtedly carry us over a horrendous cliff. When seems to be the only question. With that as my base outlook on the future, I don't see the future use of XMR in the same light. This is a total work in progress for me, so please understand I may change my pov at a moments notice
If we are indeed heading for not just an economic crash, but economic devastation, I make a few assumptions
1) Government controls will be applied in a way that can only be described as draconian, controlling and martial. They will be defended as necessary for protection of the state and it's people
2) Property seizures in the interest of the state will occur. We in the US saw this with gold seizure under Roosevelt. 401k's, pensions, savings, gold holdings , possibly personal property and even BTC may be demanded. Just look at Cyrpess for recent seizures
3) Considering the known current technical capabilities of organizations such as the NSA, I have no reason to doubt that if they turned their attention to asset gathering, deep blockchain analysis, federal warrants on data from companies such as Coinbase, Mintpal, mixers and the like will turn up many, many BTC holders. Simple threats of imprisonment or even accusations of treason would undoubtedly result in the handover of many wallets and passwords
4) A fully anonymous blockchain such as XMR's would be as close to the Swiss Bank of old as one could possibly get. This is all obviously ignoring those in the world that can right now, today, desperately use a means to safeguard their assets from a corrupt government.
Now, if the above were true, then how one used XMR would not fall in line with the answer above. XMR transfers (or any other anonymous coin of any type) would categorically never be used to pay a business. You would never transfer XMR funds to an entity that already was deeply involved in government reporting (taxes) or would potentially have a address that could be associated with you (drop location? Sure there are no cameras around?). Fundamentally, XMR transfers would always be person to person with full anonymity in-place (anonymous contracts for instance) or complete trust of the recipient. In this scenario, since many or most transactions would be more public (buying groceries, paying for housing, everyday living), a suitable anonymous XMR->accepted fiat would need to be in place to usable on the small scale. If you think your local grocery could just accept XMR on the down-low, just look up and wave at the camera next time you're buying your tomatoes and milk. You would need a supply of daily money as well as a secure money store. It's the secure movement back and forth that has me pensive.
Im not saying you are. But i think that you
may be severely overestimating the power of a bankrupt government. There will certainly be a lot of bullying and lawlessness, but i see it as being more at the local level. sheriffs deputies shaking down travellers in an even more brazen fashion than the way they do it now. Extracting funds from people is expensive. If they are going after small fish than they will be lucky to net a profit. if they are going after large fish it will at best fund them for a month or two. Large
federal national (there i go using their crazy language, next ill be saying "we" invaded iraq) governments exist by virtue of their ability to borrow and print, take that away from them and they have nothing.