The first odds for the category best movie have been submitted by the oddsmakers. We should also be very much aware that this will not be the final odds because the official nominations for each category will be announced on January. My favorite movie Dune 2 appears to have a lower chance than I have speculated heheheheh.
This is presently top 10 according to their odds.
The Brutalist 3.25
Anora 4.35
Sing Sing 5.00
Emilia Perez 6.00
Dune 2 7.00
Blitz 8.00
Conclave 11.00
The Room Next Door 13.00
The Life Of Chuck 13.00
Saturday Night 13.00
Source https://duelbits.com/en/sportsbook/special/simple_tournament/156107
Topic: 2024 Oscar Awards bets and discussions (Read 2088 times)
Tyler Sheridan deserves a win.
Win for what exactly?The Dune 2 is indeed a flop. I first watched the first on Netflix, it was better.
While I agree that first part is better movie, I don't think that 2nd part is flop by any metric. Both critics and public like it, while it managed to make almost $700 million, against ~$200 million that was spent. On top of that, it will receive more than a few Oscar nominations and probably win at least few (mostly those in tehncial categories). I thought it would end like Monster Hunter but disappointing in the end.
What's the point comparing it with another movie? Especially since its a movie based on books so its not like they can (or should) change the end dramatically. 
Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe.
Yeah I saw it. He is also behind some excellent movies and series and he is one the rare creators currently active that I follow and bascially watch anything he makes. Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.
My guess is that Solimma got hired due his work on Gomorra (which is an excellent series that I recommend), but sequels are always tricky and almost nmever as good as the originals. For that reason I woulnd't like to see 3rd Sicario part, even if Villeneuve comes back to direct it. Tyler Sheridan deserves a win. I watched the Yellow Stone series after he was interviewed by Joe Rogan Podcast telling some trivial facts about the craziest laws in history. I think most of his films are based on what's going on in Indian reservations. Just like that Wind River. That podcast is worth watching by the way.
The Dune 2 is indeed a flop. I first watched the first on Netflix, it was better. I thought it would end like Monster Hunter but disappointing in the end.
Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe.
Yeah I saw it. He is also behind some excellent movies and series and he is one the rare creators currently active that I follow and bascially watch anything he makes. Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.
My guess is that Solimma got hired due his work on Gomorra (which is an excellent series that I recommend), but sequels are always tricky and almost nmever as good as the originals. For that reason I woulnd't like to see 3rd Sicario part, even if Villeneuve comes back to direct it.
@Rikafip. Agreed. Tyler Sheridan also directed a good action movie about the rape and death of an American Indian teenager, Wind River starring Hawkeye and the Scarletwitch from the Avengers hehhe. Sicario 2 producers have certainly made a mistake on hiring the Italian spaghetti western director to direct Sicario 2. Tyler Sheridan might have been better for this, I reckon.
I will remove 2024 from the title and keep this thread unlocked for my bet against @Saint-loup.
I will remove 2024 from the title and keep this thread unlocked for my bet against @Saint-loup.
I reckon this Sicario Rise of the soldado was not the real Sicario 2 that Denis Villenueve would have created. This Rise of the soldado is a frighfully ugly created movie to continue the story of Sicario.
Keep in mind that original Sicario was not only Villenueve's movie, screenwriter Taylor Sheridan (who also wrote sequel) also played a big part in that movie success. There are rumors that Denis Villenueve will fix this with Sicario: Capo. This is an unconfirmed rumor, however.
That would be a bad move imho, as chances of making a good 3rd part are very slim. On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.
Since rest of Dune books are pretty crappy (I mean after Messiah), no wonder that he is not interested in making more movies, and I hope no one else will. Regarding Sicario, I don't know if you missed it, but there is already Sicario 2, released back in 2018. Btw, I saw yesterday Dune 2 for the 2nd time (decent rip is finally out) and I have to say that first part was still better for me. Good luck with your bet, but I think that chances of you winning are quite low and it will be a bad film year if that ends as a best movie we saw this year. Another thing that doesn't help it is the release date, which is way too early meaning it will be very expensive to create Oscar hype once again.
I reckon this Sicario Rise of the soldado was not the real Sicario 2 that Denis Villenueve would have created. This Rise of the soldado is a frighfully ugly created movie to continue the story of Sicario. There are rumors that Denis Villenueve will fix this with Sicario: Capo. This is an unconfirmed rumor, however.
@Saint-loup. Yes of course hehehehehe! We agree I bet $50 and you bet $500 for the terms of the bet that has been mentioned? I will make it less painful for you heheheheeh.
I haven't been able to watch it last week because the movie screening time at the theater wasn't convenient for me (I saw The First Omen instead) but if you find it worse than the first opus, I think I won't wait to be able to watch it before betting lol. BBC are you still ok to bet against me? We can bet on another outcome about the movie with different odds, if you are less confident lol.
On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.
Since rest of Dune books are pretty crappy (I mean after Messiah), no wonder that he is not interested in making more movies, and I hope no one else will. Regarding Sicario, I don't know if you missed it, but there is already Sicario 2, released back in 2018. Btw, I saw yesterday Dune 2 for the 2nd time (decent rip is finally out) and I have to say that first part was still better for me. Good luck with your bet, but I think that chances of you winning are quite low and it will be a bad film year if that ends as a best movie we saw this year. Another thing that doesn't help it is the release date, which is way too early meaning it will be very expensive to create Oscar hype once again.
If you're talking about Denis Villeneuve, he's not french, he is Canadian, from the french speaking part, that is to say he is a Quebecer actually. I'm not a big fan of him and his aesthetic, but it's a great director for sure. And from what I read, he has been chosen to direct the last chapter of the saga, Dune III. So I guess we will see the same characters and actors again. The movie is expected to be released in 2 or 3 years.
https://www.theverge.com/24121523/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-legendary-messiah
If you read the book, that's not yet the last part of the saga, it would be a trilogy not a saga since saga needs to be more than 3 I think. It's also the 2nd book of the series that's going to get the adaptation too which is nice since that means that there's a possibility that everyone will be able to see and experience the Dune saga from start to finish without having the need to read the book because most of the time, people don't have the time to read books which is sad and alarming. If they do follow how the book plays out and they won't cast the same actor for any other character, probably that's the last time we'd see some of the characters, the only recurring character that would retain their casting all throughout would be Jason Momoa's character, Duncan Idaho. https://www.theverge.com/24121523/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-legendary-messiah
@Saint-loup. Thank you for the correction. However, yes a Canadian with French ancestors. This is still the French in him that have made him create very good movies, I reckon. It is very head scratching for me that you mentioned you do not like his style. Sicario and Arrival are very good movies with very good sound, cinematography and the feeling being given to the person is very capturing of the attention. I will watch Dune 2 again hehehehe.
On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.
On Dune 3, he has already mentioned that the script is ready, however, he also mentioned that he wants to rest from the Dune universe and make another type movie. I speculate this to be Sicario 2. I also very much like to see this hehehe. I predict Dune 3 might arrive in 5 years.
If you're talking about Denis Villeneuve, he's not french, he is Canadian, from the french speaking part, that is to say he is a Quebecer actually. I'm not a big fan of him and his aesthetic, but it's a great director for sure. And from what I read, he has been chosen to direct the last chapter of the saga, Dune III. So I guess we will see the same characters and actors again. The movie is expected to be released in 2 or 3 years.
https://www.theverge.com/24121523/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-legendary-messiah
https://www.theverge.com/24121523/dune-3-denis-villeneuve-legendary-messiah
@Saint-loup. Yes, I would very much recommend to watch Dune 2 in a theatre alone with all of your snacks ready and going to toilet before it begins to make it certain that you will not go to toilet during the movie hehehehe. I have seen the movie 3 times. The 3rd time was only at home with a clear enough copy on tv. It was a different experience on tv. In the theatre, the movie gave me much more emotion and excitement. I will not spoil it, however, the ending of this movie is the most very perfect ending for a movie. This frenchman has raised the standard for directing movies, I reckon
Wow you're very sure of your bet bro, that's impressive. You should really like the movie, or finding it very artistic/academic at least. Of course, I would be ready to accept that. But you should take a little bit more time IMO. $500 and $250 are not small amounts but the risk to lose your bet is not small either IMO even if I have absolutely no idea of the likelihood to happen, to be honest. I should watch the movie on monday if I have enough time to go to the theater.
The amount of the bet has made this to be more serious and losing $1000 for this would certainly be painful if the escrow will not send the funds. Another suggestion would be to use the forum's trust system and ask one of the D2 members to be the referee if one of us does not pay the bet, however, I do not want to do this to you because you are betting $1000 against only $50. It is much easier for me to pay $50, I can give it to you right now as a donation but losing $1000 is very painful hehehehe.
In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.
@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.
If I publicly accept the bet, it implicitly implies that I play my account and my reputation along with the $1000. Even without a dedicated referee. And ofc I'm ok with that. It's an unwritten rule of Bitcointalk, if you don't respect an agreement made through the forum, you deserve to be tagged by any DT member. So of course, I took that into consideration when I said I was interested. I have no problem with that, referee or not. And I think the $500 buy out option is a fair safety against that if for some reasons I can't or don't want anymore risking $1000. But we need to agree how to use it. I can exercise it anytime till October? Or only during October month? The last day to use it would be October 31th 2024? In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.
@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.
You can exercise the buy out option until the day before the awarding night on March 2025. I am not quite certain on the date, however, yes the day before the Oscar ceremony occurs. Also, if I am being honest with you, I am not feeling very comfortable for you on betting $1000 against $50. Are you sure about this? Have you seen the movie? It is quite good hehehehee.
In any case, if you want to propose to make this bet $500 against $50 with a buy out option of $250, I would accept this if you agree.
I would never be part of this "bet", but I would like to warn, whoever wants to bet on Dune 2 to win, even the movie producers themselves did not really rely on winning the Oscars, usually there is a time slot where you share your movies, which is about late summer, going into autumn as well.
Because that way you are not only doing the tour, but also you are doing the tv shows etc that is leading up to award season, then you get to go to other award shows and start winning them, which is tied to your tour, so you are non stop on the road, and then ends with Oscars. That way from release at late summer period, like late august, until the Oscars, the actors are ALWAYS on screen for a reason, making it more famous. Dune 2 already released, and the Oscars are a year away, they did not expect it, and you shouldn't neither.
Because that way you are not only doing the tour, but also you are doing the tv shows etc that is leading up to award season, then you get to go to other award shows and start winning them, which is tied to your tour, so you are non stop on the road, and then ends with Oscars. That way from release at late summer period, like late august, until the Oscars, the actors are ALWAYS on screen for a reason, making it more famous. Dune 2 already released, and the Oscars are a year away, they did not expect it, and you shouldn't neither.
The amount of the bet has made this to be more serious and losing $1000 for this would certainly be painful if the escrow will not send the funds. Another suggestion would be to use the forum's trust system and ask one of the D2 members to be the referee if one of us does not pay the bet, however, I do not want to do this to you because you are betting $1000 against only $50. It is much easier for me to pay $50, I can give it to you right now as a donation but losing $1000 is very painful hehehehe.
In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.
@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.
If I publicly accept the bet, it implicitly implies that I play my account and my reputation along with the $1000. Even without a dedicated referee. And ofc I'm ok with that. It's an unwritten rule of Bitcointalk, if you don't respect an agreement made through the forum, you deserve to be tagged by any DT member. So of course, I took that into consideration when I said I was interested. I have no problem with that, referee or not. And I think the $500 buy out option is a fair safety against that if for some reasons I can't or don't want anymore risking $1000. But we need to agree how to use it. I can exercise it anytime till October? Or only during October month? The last day to use it would be October 31th 2024? In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.
@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.
Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?
I will ask some of the campaign managers if they want to be our escrow for our bet. They are the most trustworthy people in this forum, I reckon. However, if we cannot find one we use the forum's trust system. It might be good to inform one of the D2 members to become the referee for this bet?
On bitcoin's volatility, if we can agree on an escrow we can use a stablecoin. I certainly want to use stablecoin where we can also have cheaper fees for this.
The amount of the bet has made this to be more serious and losing $1000 for this would certainly be painful if the escrow will not send the funds. Another suggestion would be to use the forum's trust system and ask one of the D2 members to be the referee if one of us does not pay the bet, however, I do not want to do this to you because you are betting $1000 against only $50. It is much easier for me to pay $50, I can give it to you right now as a donation but losing $1000 is very painful hehehehe.
In any case, if you want we use no escrow, no referees, however, we make the bet smaller. Your $300 and my $30 with no buy out.
@Rikafip you will be the witness hehehee.
Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?
I will ask some of the campaign managers if they want to be our escrow for our bet. They are the most trustworthy people in this forum, I reckon. However, if we cannot find one we use the forum's trust system. It might be good to inform one of the D2 members to become the referee for this bet?
On bitcoin's volatility, if we can agree on an escrow we can use a stablecoin. I certainly want to use stablecoin where we can also have cheaper fees for this.
Ok but do you know how much will take an escrow for holding $1050 during one year? If he takes 10% of the funds it will cost $105. In addition we must be sure he won't leave the forum or getting ill during this year. The other issue to address is the price of BTC during this year. What we will do if it makes +100% or -50%? We will let the funds as they are or we will remove or complete the amount before the ceremony?
I will ask some of the campaign managers if they want to be our escrow for our bet. They are the most trustworthy people in this forum, I reckon. However, if we cannot find one we use the forum's trust system. It might be good to inform one of the D2 members to become the referee for this bet?
On bitcoin's volatility, if we can agree on an escrow we can use a stablecoin. I certainly want to use stablecoin where we can also have cheaper fees for this.
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