Topic: 2024 Oscar Awards bets and discussions - page 8. (Read 2213 times)

Yes I agree with you but in his initial message bbc.reporter was talking about movies he watched likely to receive Oscars according to him. And from what I understood he isn't thinking that Killers of the Flower Moon is good enough to receive one main Oscar. I think the opposite, for me this movie is "cinematically" better than Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer is not surprising, and looks too much like other movies such as The Imitation Game, I believe.

Its not a joke though, I agree the 5 second view is what the hell is Barbie even in the line up for.  Oscars, film royalty the greatest actors in their generation etc. so why would you do this but comedies can make the Oscars all sorts of film types, funny animated films anything.  I think the main deciding factor and swing to votes is usually a theme of some kind, if you can watch Barbie and find some message and believe thats what the Oscars might vote on and it might win then you have a bet; its 17x odds so we arent requiring much down to win a fair amount it just has to have some slight chance there.   
  Its outside bet for sure but I like the long shot bets, thats just me and Ive yet to decide for sure just yet.  I havent even watched them all yet, thats probably most important.

I am not sure why should movies be comparable in this way. Why couldn't movies with different genres enter into the game? Imho depth is just a matter of perspective and we need all kinds of movies. The idea that movies should all be heavy to process, artsy, or deal with concepts like oppenheimer in order to be taken seriously, would leave us with pretty bleak cinema.

Lack of depth in a movies is in eye of beholder as you can see lots of levels in different movies. They don't all need to be sad or direct about something that happened. It's not about who makes the saddest and most realistic movie should win. And it's not like Barbie went with the easiest route. It went all in bashing the very firm it was advertising. Backgrounds weren't digitally added. But moved by hand. Music was actually well done considering it was mostly musical. Imho it was bold and original, and left Bechdel test seem to be like a bad memory in movie history.

Sometimes being funny is the sugar we need to get the medicine in while being all preachy about it.

Edit: This might make it more difficult for judges to justify "best leading role" or something like that, but i assume it makes it more predictable for outcomes, as many people will see "serious" and sad roles with genocide ect, as winners. Which they often are. But there are other areas to judge, which makes the whole event more interesting and fair

Well, of course that watching such a bad copy can affect your perception of the movie and for exactly that reason I am not watching them anymore.


Oscar nominations are not released yet, but based on what we've seen in previous years, Barbie will most likely end up getting nominated in (the most important) Best Picture category. It made shit load of money ($1.4 billion+) and critics generally liked it meaning both criteria is met. Best Picture nomination lost its value since they increased the number of nominated movies from 5 to 10 so now we get all sorts of mediocre movies nominated.



All that is completely irrelevant when it comes to personal opinion about a movie. Everything Everywhere All At Once won 7 Oscars last year while I coulnd't even finsih the movie and I probably won't give it another try.

You shouldn't say that about Killers of the Flower Moon, this movie is very likely to win at least one or two Oscars IMO because it owns very well reputed and awarded -almost living legendary- actors Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro and director Martin Scorsese. But mostly because it doesn't try to be commercial unlike Oppenheimer, with such a duration(3h30) and such a subject(a massive scam and murder of Indians) Scorsese knew it won't be a great business success. So I think he made it for the glory. And I bet Lily Gladstone (the squaw) will win the best actress award at least.

The biggest joke of the century is that Barbie is actually nominated? I am not saying that it didn't try to have some sort of meaning, there isn't really just some dancing and chat, there is this main idea behind it as well, and that's understandable, the whole "Barbie created terrible expectations from woman" type of situation and I agree, BUT when we are talking about a movie about potentially what caused the death of all humans, I would say the idea behind Barbie can't ever be taken seriously. And... it's Barbie lol, seriously? Barbie? Oppenheimer will win this one without even trouble, it is not going to be even a discussion about it, there isn't even any movie that could be alternative to it.

Other categories are fine too, but Cillian Murphy MUST win the best actor, that dude played the role perfectly, I wouldn't say a single line was out of order, he played it so amazingly on every single scene he was in, he definitely deserves it no question.

It might be because the feeling I had while watching the bad copy might not be as good if I watched a good copy where I can see what the director wanted me to see, hear what he wanted me to hear and feel what he wanted me to feel. We might be losing some of this when we watch movies with a bad copy.

In any case, I will watch it again if a good copy is available and I can be quite certain that the Holdovers will be more beautiful, more funny and I will get the real feeling of what this movie was created for. Best original screenplay hhehehehe!

What I meant to ask is why would it feel more like CODA if you watched the better copy? You mean it would be even a better movie?


That, and another big factor for the win is having the lead female character. Regarding hearing disability theme, for me personally much better was Sound of Metal made one year before CODA that was Oscar nominated and managed to win 2 in the end.

By the way, thanks for the link. I just checked the website and The Holdovers picture quality is just horrendous, reminded me of first cam rips I saw back in the 90s (if I remember correctly first cam rip for me was Independence Day as I couldn't wait for it to come to cinema in my country.)

It makes it feel very much similar to CODA where if The Holdovers is nominated, it might be the weakest nominated movie, however, it might get the heart of the voters in the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences. Also, if it will not be nominated for best picture, I am quite certain this will be nominated for best original screenplay.

However, it can be argued that CODA has a message to be more aware on people with hearing disabilities. This might be the agenda and it might be why it won the votes. The Holdovers does not have this type of strong message for viewers.

@Kakmakr. I had a similar argument, however, the voters of the academy have their own agenda and have their own storylines to spread instead of the storylines we see in mainstream news media.

Having watched Oppenheimer, I don't think that Nolan sent a strong message at all. I mean, I am a big fan of post apocalyptic/nuclear war films and probably saw vast majority of the important ones ( The War Game, Dead Man's Letters, Threads, Fail Safe, The Day After, When The Winds Blow, Special Bulletin, Testament etc) and I didn't feel even remotely as bad (actually, not bad/worried at all) after watching Oppenheimer, like I did with the movies I just mentioned and my guess is neither are others.

With that being said, Oscar awards will again be relevant and regain its popularity when they stop sending messages and actually start awarding the best movies.

Well, in my opinion with all the conflict going on in the world, we need a movie like "Oppenheimer" to get the Best Picture award. It sends out a strong message that Nuclear War are stupid and should be avoided at all cost.

We have "Rocket Man" in North Korea with an itchy finger, but this movie will most probably never be seen there.. because they see this as western propaganda.  

We currently have nations in conflict with the ability to use nuclear weapons, so highlighting the absolute craziness to use weapons of mass destruction... are absolutely necessary now.

Ah that explains it. I gave up on watching cam rips long time ago as I don't wanna ruin my expeirence by watching something I might like in shitty audio and video quality. Out of curiosity, can you please send me link of that streaming website via PM as I am curious how bad copy is, as I didn't find it on streaming websites I sometimes use.


I don't understand this part, why would it make it feel more like CODA (which was imho one of the weakest Best Picture winners in recent years).

Rock's decision is understandable. The slapping incident was a traumatic experience for him, and it is likely that he is still processing it. Returning to the Oscars could potentially trigger anxiety or other negative emotions.

Maybe Rock thinks of being there will give Smith any more attention. By declining the offer to host the Oscars, Rock is taking away the opportunity for Smith to make another apology or to try to justify his actions. This could be a way for Rock to regain control of the narrative and to ensure that the focus is on his work, not on the slapping incident.

Oppenheimer odds are too short to want to bet at this early stage.  Is it impossible now for a film to be released in the last weeks of the year and qualify, I wasnt aware it would end this early or did I misread that schedule that way.
My outsider bet would be Barbie at 17x     It would be a surprise for sure but at 17x odds you have to a take a long chance it might be the film that some thought was most qualified.  Im not decided on this idea but alot of people said it had a bigger frame to it and that sounds like it could be an oscar deal.  I dont know, Im just mentioning I will think about it.

@Rikafip. I watched The Holdovers through an illegal streaming website hehehe. It was also a bad copy, however, I know if I watch it with a good copy once available, this movie might be a feeling that is something similar to Coda. I would not be shocked if much of the academy members voted for this and won for best picture.

Also, Paul Giamatti was very good for this movie but it might not win him an Oscar. I am curious on Willem Dafoe's performance. He might be best supporting actor hehe.

You lucky bastard! 

Holdovers is coming here in January but I hope that decent quality screener will leak before that, as it usually happen during Oscar season. I have really high hopes for that movie,mainly because I loved Payne-Giamatti combo in Sideways so I happy to hear that you have such a high opinion on it.

This weekend I watched the Killers The Flower Moon, the Past Lives and the Holdovers.

On Killers of The Flower Moon, I was not very happy watching this movie. It gave me a similar bored feeling as Oppenheimer and yes I watched it with subtitles.

On Past Lives, I liked the movie especially the beginning. Watching it going to the ending began some boring moments, however, my curiousity on how it will end kept me absorbed by the movie. This movie might be my bet for best cinematography if it is nominated.

On the Holdovers, as of now this is the best movie of the list. My bet for best original screenplay. This is a winner! I wish the odds will be big hhehe.

@Rikafip. Poor Things is removed from the list hehe. I only assumed it was released already because it is in the sportsbooks' list for best picture already. I watched the trailer and this gave me a feeling that is something similar to Everything Everywhere All At Once. It might be the best picture winner if the voters vote like they have done last year, I reckon.

Also on Rottentomatoes, the early reviews are very good and they declare that Emma Stone might win for best actress. She is also the favorite in the sportsbooks this early, very much similar to Michelle Yeoh for her performance on Everything Everywhere hehehehe.

Hah, its exactly the same situation for me. I started having hearing problems in certain situations few years ago so its also a problem for me to watch movies subtitles. I mean, I can watch it but I may miss some words here and there while I want to hear absolutely every word while watching.


Poor Things already showing in cinema at your place? Here it comes in 3 weeks.

No, I might have a hearing problem hehehe. Also or movies that have much dialogue, I like to have the subtitles on for me to be more absorbed by the movie very much like reading a book.

In any case, my list to watch for Saturday and Sunday will be Killers of the Flowermoon, Poor Things and the Holdovers. There is also a movie by Bradley Cooper with the title Maestro. He starred, directed and produced this movie.