2024 Oscar Awards bets and discussions - page 9.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Rikafip on November 07, 2023, 12:11:43 AM

Quote from: Hispo on November 06, 2023, 12:01:06 PM

Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle.

People still think that incident from last year has been staged? Smh..

Will Smith has been banned from Oscars for 10 years, his reputation ruined and even career damaged as some movies were delayed yet people think that anyone in their right mind and in Will Smith's position would do it? Not everything is a conspiracy, people do stupid things all the time and that was one of them.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on November 06, 2023, 11:48:05 PM

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch.

Napoleon is already on my watchlist but I only referred to the movies you mention in the first post. And yeah, I have high expectations from that one as last Ridley's history movie ((The Last Duel) was quite good + Joaquin Phoenix is in it.

It was not staged. Did everyone see Chris Rock's counterattack in his newest stand up special? It was very brutally truthful. Everyone should watch it. He was also premiering it in the town where his wife grew up.

Rikafip

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Quote from: Hispo on November 07, 2023, 04:46:53 PM

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

Incident from last year won't make it any more popular or relevant. On the other hand, what will make it more relevant is when they finally stop to push their agenda but I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Quote from: FanEagle on November 08, 2023, 11:54:56 AM

I think it will win very easily, the others do not have a chance, if I can see it in any of my favorite places, I will certainly wager, anything 2.00 or above will be great to bet, under that and it's too guaranteed and would not feel like it would worth the risk to wager on it.

Well, if you are 100% sure that it will win the award, then it shoulnd't matter for you to bet on it even if odds are below 2. Also, even though Oppenheimer is the favorite at the moment, many things can still change and Napoleon hasn't been released yet and that's another one that many expect to end up getting nominated.

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I do believe that Oppenheimer will definitely get the best picture and best director without a doubt. Why? Because it was literally shared like that, and it came in with a huge hype as well, along with Barbie, the marketing that was done with those two movies together was something insane, barbienheimer type of names and all that, it was a movie that was both made for award season but also done for popularity at the same time, a very old school success story if you ask me.

I think it will win without a doubt and should be considered one of the all time best participants for such an award. Not because it is the best movie, but because it is done the best way for awards like these. I think it will win very easily, the others do not have a chance, if I can see it in any of my favorite places, I will certainly wager, anything 2.00 or above will be great to bet, under that and it's too guaranteed and would not feel like it would worth the risk to wager on it.

Hispo

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Quote from: Rikafip on November 07, 2023, 12:11:43 AM

Quote from: Hispo on November 06, 2023, 12:01:06 PM

Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle.

People still think that incident from last year has been staged? Smh..

Will Smith has been banned from Oscars for 10 years, his reputation ruined and even career damaged as some movies were delayed yet people think that anyone in their right mind and in Will Smith's position would do it? Not everything is a conspiracy, people do stupid things all the time and that was one of them.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on November 06, 2023, 11:48:05 PM

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch.

Napoleon is already on my watchlist but I only referred to the movies you mention in the first post. And yeah, I have high expectations from that one as last Ridley's history movie ((The Last Duel) was quite good + Joaquin Phoenix is in it.

Indeed, there is people who believes it was all about a conspiracy to either give more attention to the Oscar Awards or to attack political incorrectness by slapping the face of a comedian who was making fun of someone's appareance.
I admit that I am myself a little inclined to believe there was something fishy going on, but it must be because I was not aware of the penalties and punishments Will Smith was going to suffer for having taken the spotlight of the night in such a negative way, in front of the world.
Let us see what happenes this year, the number of viewers will be likely higher than previous years, solely because of the expectation of people like who speculate on the next slap, which may or may not occur.

Keep in mind, these awards were consistently losing relevance and public until something as unhinged as that happened and became viral.

Rikafip

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Quote from: Hispo on November 06, 2023, 12:01:06 PM

Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle.

People still think that incident from last year has been staged? Smh..

Will Smith has been banned from Oscars for 10 years, his reputation ruined and even career damaged as some movies were delayed yet people think that anyone in their right mind and in Will Smith's position would do it? Not everything is a conspiracy, people do stupid things all the time and that was one of them.

Quote from: bbc.reporter on November 06, 2023, 11:48:05 PM

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch.

Napoleon is already on my watchlist but I only referred to the movies you mention in the first post. And yeah, I have high expectations from that one as last Ridley's history movie ((The Last Duel) was quite good + Joaquin Phoenix is in it.

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: Rikafip on November 06, 2023, 10:00:14 AM

Regarding the ones that will probably be nominated, so far I watched Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall and while both are good movies, I liked former more and so far it has been the most I saw this year. I am waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon to come on streaming sites while The Killer (the one I am very interested in because its Fincher's movie) is coming to Netflix in a few days (November 8th).

You should add Napoleon in your list of movies to watch. It will be released in cinemas on November 22. If this movie was created to be inspirational and if it can get your sympathy for the leading character then this movie might have the capability to win some awards as an underdog very much similar to Coda.

Also, as I have mentioned already, a Ridley Scott and Joaquin Phoenix partnership has similar chances to win awards as Martin Scorsese and Leonardo di Caprio partnership hehehehe. The last movie of Ridley Scott with Joaquin is the Gladiator which won awards including best movie and best actor.

Hispo

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Is there any way to bet something unhinged will take place in this edition of the Oscar Awards, something similar to the unsavory slap in the face given by Will Smith Last time?
Because I have a personal theory of the Oscar organizers realizing such event helped to boost the number of viewers worldview, since they are not stupid, they will try to pull off even more drama to attract even more people to watch their espectacle. The more people watching the Oscars, the more money the organizers can ask for advertisement.

Rikafip

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Quote from: Saint-loup on October 29, 2023, 01:57:33 PM

That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

Oscars are not what they used to be so you shouldn't really be surprised if Barbie ends up being among "Best Picture" nomineed. I mean, ideologically it fitst current Hollywood agenda, it made shit load of money and is accepted by the critics meaning all the requirements are set.

Prior to 2009 there were only 5 movies nominated for that award and since then we have 10 so every year we have few movies that really shoulnd't be there.

Regarding the ones that will probably be nominated, so far I watched Past Lives and Anatomy of A Fall and while both are good movies, I liked former more and so far it has been the most I saw this year. I am waiting for Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon to come on streaming sites while The Killer (the one I am very interested in because its Fincher's movie) is coming to Netflix in a few days (November 8th).

bbc.reporter

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Quote from: famososMuertos on November 05, 2023, 05:00:03 PM

In short, the Oscar Awards seem close... but it is the awards season that adjusts the reality of the "@" although they say otherwise many betting houses, which remain "stuck" with these initial "@."

Then, awards season can make our bet more precise, consequently Oppenheimer being the candidate for these Oscar Awards, but be careful, eh!

The list of awards is longer than indicated, without a doubt they are the most important awards, Golden Globe Awards, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, I would add:
Independent Spirit Awards, Critic's Choice among others but one that closes strongly is the Bafta. So no matter what the "@" says, awards season better defines where the real winners are and still, surprises happen at the Oscar Awards.

You are correct, the Bafta awards is another important date. I will add this. However, the Bafta have a different set of voters with a different inspiration than the members of the Academy of motion pictures arts and sciences. There might be some similarities in the nominations but there are small differences in which movies in each categories are voted as the winners. The best director, the best actor and the best movie might go to Christopher Nolan, Cilian Murphy and Oppenheimer in the Bafta for very clear reasons hehehe. However, the Oscars might vote differently.

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Quote from: Saint-loup on October 29, 2023, 01:57:33 PM

Bookmakers really think Barbie will be nominated for the ceremony as a contestant for the best picture of the year? Along with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as contestant for best actor and actress of the year? OMG it's insane. There is an option to bet against that somewhere? That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

I think it was a genius move from Mattel to let them openly critizise the Barbie brand in the movie. It had fresh takes and frankly it surprised me positively. Maybe it wins with best original song or best adapted screenplay or something, but i don't think it's in the same league as other films nominated.

And would be absolutely puzzled if Oppenheimer wouldn't win best director award. Making a movie of that scale, that is supposed to have atom bomb blast without any CGI is an ambitious job to say the least. But i guess they don't do it purely on ideological reasons. I remember Nolan saying that they choose to blew up a real working Boeing 747 for Tenet because it is cheaper than doing it with CGI.

famososMuertos

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In short, the Oscar Awards seem close... but it is the awards season that adjusts the reality of the "@" although they say otherwise many betting houses, which remain "stuck" with these initial "@."

Then, awards season can make our bet more precise, consequently Oppenheimer being the candidate for these Oscar Awards, but be careful, eh!

The list of awards is longer than indicated, without a doubt they are the most important awards, Golden Globe Awards, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, I would add:
Independent Spirit Awards, Critic's Choice among others but one that closes strongly is the Bafta. So no matter what the "@" says, awards season better defines where the real winners are and still, surprises happen at the Oscar Awards.

bbc.reporter

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@electronicash. This Barbie movie is only trying to have a meaningful message, however, @Saint-loup is right. This movie is only a big commercial for a toy company very much similar to many other of these common cartoon shows.

In any case, on your question on which story usually win an Oscar in best movie category, you only need to look at the 5 last best movies. Everything Everywhere, Coda, Nomadland, Parasite and Greenbook. They are stories about family, growing up, being connected, perseverance and friendship. All of them are inspirational movies except for Parasite.

The favorite Oppenheimer is not very inspirational, I reckon.

electronicash

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Quote from: Saint-loup on October 29, 2023, 01:57:33 PM

Bookmakers really think Barbie will be nominated for the ceremony as a contestant for the best picture of the year? Along with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as contestant for best actor and actress of the year? OMG it's insane. There is an option to bet against that somewhere? That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

Don't Look Up movie doesn't look very serious movie also but it was very relatable to the what is happening in the society just like Barbie 2023. it creates the divide of the society whether it includes race, men and women or political views.

i will be watching the Openhiemer to see how the writer may have twisted the story. most of the time the story teller always want to benefit on how it go and they end up righteous in the eyes of the watchers.
Green Book is such a story of racism, quite true even today we identify which city/state is a black state.

which story usually win the oscar, there must be a pattern for this. whether a story that tells about war or the story about divided society?

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Quote from: davis196 on October 25, 2023, 01:58:12 AM

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

Similar to what I have said before, this is not a certainty. Oppenheimer was not a very inspiring movie and if you have noticed, the members of the Academy of motion picture arts and sciences have more voted for movies like Green Book, Coda and Everything Everywhere for the best movie which were positive and inspiring. The favorites against those movies did not win.

I have not yet watched much of the movies that have a chance to be nominated to make a recommendation which movies are inspiring.

Other important dates before the Oscar Awards.

January 7, 2024, Golden Globe Awards
February 10, 2024, Directors Guild
February 24, 2024, Screen Actors Guild

@Saint-loup. I am quite certain that it will not be nominated.

@electronicash. The oddsmakers might only be guessing because they have the most popular directors. However, I reckon Napoleon might be very underestimated. It is directed by Ridely Scott and has Joaquin Phoenix as leading actor. They worked together on the movie The Gladiator which has won best picture, best director for Ridley and best supporting actor for Joaquin Phoenix. If this movie inspires, this might be the underdog winner hehhehe.

Saint-loup

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Bookmakers really think Barbie will be nominated for the ceremony as a contestant for the best picture of the year? Along with Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling as contestant for best actor and actress of the year? OMG it's insane. There is an option to bet against that somewhere? That would be crazy to be honest, I don't think it's a bad movie, but we are talking about the award of the Oscars academy here. For me, it was more a children or teenage movie than an adult one. And especially, more a long advertising for Mattel and Barbie toys than a serious movie.

electronicash

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Quote from: redsun114 on October 29, 2023, 01:11:29 PM

Quote from: davis196 on October 25, 2023, 01:58:12 AM

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

I haven't watched the movie yet despite of being popular but I only saw the trailer of it almost anywhere. Maybe many will also agree that it was a good movie but we can't just end up on a conclusion and say that it will win all the nominations being thrown at it.

We shouldn't forget that there are also other participants and maybe some of them are also a great movie or actors, actresses, directors, etc... Plus you said Hollywood became political now, so expect that there will be some kind of manipulations going on here. It's a bad thing. I understand why many people are now losing their interest in these kind of events.

i happen to have seen Oppenheimer but never have I understood a thing. i might just watch it again.
how often does the movie watcher's favorite win an Oscar by the way? it seems Oppenheimer and Killers of The Flower Moon have the closest odds and have only a chance of winning. and it's a long wait for the winners will be announced months later in March next year.

i heard these movies are very related to current events these days, very political and i think they are the only very possible to win.

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Quote from: davis196 on October 25, 2023, 01:58:12 AM

I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

I haven't watched the movie yet despite of being popular but I only saw the trailer of it almost anywhere. Maybe many will also agree that it was a good movie but we can't just end up on a conclusion and say that it will win all the nominations being thrown at it.

We shouldn't forget that there are also other participants and maybe some of them are also a great movie or actors, actresses, directors, etc... Plus you said Hollywood became political now, so expect that there will be some kind of manipulations going on here. It's a bad thing. I understand why many people are now losing their interest in these kind of events.

davis196

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I think that Oppenheimer will win all the Oscars in the categories where it has nominations.
Not because it's a great movie(it is pretty good, but I'm not that impressed), but because we live in the constant thread of a World War III right now. The USA tested nuclear weapons. Russia will get out of the treaty, which reduced nuclear weapon testing. There's is tension in the Middle East. Israel and Iran probably have nuclear weapons. Hollywood became totally political in the last few years and I don't believe that anything will change. The only good thing is that there won't be that much liberal propaganda this year(at least I hope so).

bbc.reporter

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News update.

I reckon everyone might be concentrated very intently on Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan, Cillian Murphy and Killers of the flower moon, Martin Scorsese, Leonardo Di Caprio hehe. There is a new movie that will be premiered on November 22 called Napoleon. This is directed by Ridley Scott and the role of Napoleon is played by Joaquin Phoenix. I speculate this might disappoint that fans of Nolan and Scorsese. The last time Ridley Scott and Joaquin Phoenix worked together was in the movie Gladiator where it won for best movie and best actor.

Joaquin Phoenix is highly regarded as one of the greatest working actors today, as displayed in the varied roles he portrays and the multiple respected directors he has worked with. He now reunites with Ridley Scott, with whom he first worked with on “Gladiator” over two decades ago in 2000, on the upcoming historical epic “Napoleon,” playing the titular French commander set to be released on November 22.

Source https://www.goldderby.com/feature/joaquin-phoenix-oscar-nominations-napoleon-1205584681/

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Quote from: Text on October 03, 2023, 01:21:15 AM

In my opinion, the first 3 categories will go to the most favorite and strong contender, none other than the excellence from the film "Oppenheimer." Coming from one of the most acclaimed directors and one of the most talented actors working today. This will be the first time for Nolan if he wins.

But, of course, the actual results can often be surprising.

I had a similar speculation before because it is quite certain that the nuclear war storyline will be hyped on social media and mainstream news media. However, if you look at the winners for the last 2 years, the favorites before the official nominations were announced never won the Oscar. The movies that won were emotional movies about family, love and making the world a better world.

What are these emotional and inspirational movies? I honesly have not watched much movies this year.

In any case, the nuclear war storyline is only beginning.

Vladimir Putin has ramped up his nuclear rhetoric, saying his country had successfully tested the nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable Burevestnik strategic cruise missile, as he suggested Russia could resume nuclear testing for the first time in more than three decades.

Source https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/05/vladimir-putin-escalates-nuclear-rhetoric-with-threat-to-resume-testing

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