I also wonder which phase of production the fab is in. Mask set done? Wafers started?
Depending on the process and "hot lot" status, wafers typically take between 4 and 8 weeks.
Then there are extra days to (optionally) test the wafers, cut the wafers, package the parts, then test the final parts. Then ship and assemble (solder) them to the boards, then test the boards.
(Please NO jokes about 4 to 6 weeks. Above "4 to 8 weeks" is serious.)
If the wafers come out of the fab on Jan. 10, then I would guess first SC units will ship sometime between Jan. 21 and 31.
I was wondering when people like you two are going to start posting. On a personal note, it is my job to view them as serious competitors, but I completely lost it when they mentioned the "chips" are on their way in 1-2 weeks but also said they are making adjustments.
fact: you can not make adjustments once the MASK is made. even if you were to run a gate/metal fix, you'd still have to run the whole process all over, which is a workflow of 2 month. This time is also completely not limited by man power, but limited to how fast the Fab can produce the layers, and this is not magic, it is mathematically calculable once you "tape-out", how fast you will get your chips back. all these are industry standard. TSMC, one of the big players in this field can produce a "super hot lot" in 0.8 days.
I didn't want to entering a fight of words originally, but I am going to say it now. they lied and I'm disappointed.
This (bolded above) is actually not true. Every time we have a new chip, we tell the fab to split the lot and hold some wafers at various stages of production. That way if the final product has a problem that can be fixed with one or two metal layers, we can make the change, the fab makes masks for only those layers, then the held wafers restart from that point and finish in less time than the whole process. We also sprinkle spare gates throughout the design so we can make metal changes to add gates if required for bug fixes.
Example: A 24 wafer lot. Hold 6 wafers at 1 week, 6 more wafers at 2 weeks, 6 more at 3 weeks; finished 6 wafers come out at 4 weeks. If the chips work as expected, we release all the wafers and the remaining 18 come out in groups of 6 wafers every week for 3 more weeks. If we have a problem that can be fixed in the top layers of the chips, we can make a mask change and have fixed wafers in a week. If the problem is near the bottom, we need 3 weeks for the fix. (Note: above is simplified to make the example clearer.)
We are in sub 30nm now and we take about 5 or 6 weeks for a "super hot lot" at TSMC. I assume older (larger) processes take less time. But 0.8 days? I find that impossible unless you are talking a top layer metal change for wafers that were held near the end of the process. I cannot believe any fab in the world can go from blank wafers to finished chips in less than a few days for more than a 2 or 3 metal layer process. Do you have a reference for the 0.8 days number? Until I'm proven ignorant, I'm calling BS.