ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 92.

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 11:56:58 AM

I know you are referring to the 500T. Those 500T is worth only 30K BTC if they are deployed in Oct, and 20K is in Nov. It's just a portion of the 0.2B/share. Don't put too much hope on this one.

they are worth at least 50K-100K btc sold in Oct-Nov (that's at significantly reduced margins). That's .125-.25 btc a share right there.

The fact remains that this hardware will increase the dividends for several weeks.

tinus42

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 501

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 11:56:58 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 09, 2013, 11:38:15 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I am not going to argue with anyone.

good, because you are ignoring significant product for sale in the short term.

The math has been done several times in both threads, and even at significantly reduced margins, the profit/dividend is significant for the next 2 months.

I know you are referring to the 500T. Those 500T is worth only 30K BTC if they are deployed in Oct, and 20K is in Nov. It's just a portion of the 0.2B/share. Don't put too much hope on this one.

Are you the next Vycid? Do you have short positions on AM?

huhai0978

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Quote from: velacreations on October 09, 2013, 11:38:15 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I am not going to argue with anyone.

good, because you are ignoring significant product for sale in the short term.

The math has been done several times in both threads, and even at significantly reduced margins, the profit/dividend is significant for the next 2 months.

I know you are referring to the 500T. Those 500T is worth only 30K BTC if they are deployed in Oct, and 20K is in Nov. It's just a portion of the 0.2B/share. Don't put too much hope on this one.

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Moving forward to over 100 Th/s over the next few weeks. Sounds good to me.

tinus42

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 501

Update by Friedcat in the other thread (page 701 on the bottom):

Quote from: friedcat on October 09, 2013, 11:37:35 AM

Quick Update

We are still on track of accumulating reinvestment funds, continuing from last month, so please expect less-than-raw-income dividends in the next few weeks. The financials will be given out in October 20s, as mentioned in the last update.

Self-retained (not sold) Hashrate distribution:

Air cooling datacenter - 47TH/s
Under franchising - 19TH/s
Immersion cooling - 5TH/s with 3-5TH/s per day towards 60TH/s in total.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3307606

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

I am not going to argue with anyone.

good, because you are ignoring significant product for sale in the short term.

The math has been done several times in both threads, and even at significantly reduced margins, the profit/dividend is significant for the next 2 months.

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Actually, one should study basic economics. One source of profit is the concept of adding value. A kernel of corn has marginal value. Within a few years it can become a whole field of corn. Value can be created, and so can profits.

ShawnP

newbie

Activity: 52

Merit: 0

0.0048?

Way worse than I expected.

herzmeister

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1007

Quote from: ?? on ??

Fiat money is a inflation money. The total amount of money(the flow of money to be specific) increases each year, that's where the profit comes from. While BTC is a deflation money

Last time I checked, BTC is currently inflating by 25 new bitcoins roughly every 10 minutes.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: ?? on ??

Making money is a miracle. When someone is making money, that means others are losing money.

This is just so plain wrong for bitcoin mining.

superduh

hero member

Activity: 602

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: velacreations on October 09, 2013, 10:44:08 AM

Quote from: Rival on October 09, 2013, 10:35:44 AM

If no one is making any profit, how will anything get developed and brought to market? You are predicting the end of bitcoin mining, which I feel is unlikely. Folks will always find improved designs, improved processes, and will continue to profit for the foreseeable future.

500 TH is about to be up for sale in the short term, which will increase the dividends significantly for at least 8 weeks.

OK, I think I can open a course in this thread. Tuition can be sent to the following address: 15oEsWK3UjtnkrhvgKeDGTQuqdprMkfXya ,minimum 1BTC. I'm serious because this will save you a lot of BTC.

You guys should learn how the world works. You should learn physics before learning investing.
There is no such thing as making money. Making NO money or losing money is a common thing. Making money is a miracle. When someone is making money, that means others are losing money. In an ideal equilibrium world, no one is making any money and the world works just fine. You get the illusion that Y company is make X% profit simple because you are living in a fiat world. Fiat money is a inflation money. The total amount of money(the flow of money to be specific) increases each year, that's where the profit comes from. While BTC is a deflation money, making money is even harder in BTC world. The mining companies such as ASICMiner make a lot of "money" is a strange and rare phenomenon. This is possible simple because we are in the early stage of BTC development, lots of resources go to the money makers. But this will not last very long. It's going to end very soon. The dividend of ASICMiner will be very limited if it will not vanish at all.

there is also an "equilibrium" to how much share of the network a company would have. it would require "collusion" maybe not so much a secret one but one that kind of makes sense on it's own. this is an "arms" raise and there is no point in making chips/asics on an exponential basis. if they all agree to a certain market share it makes more sense then building out asics nonstop. that's the only way to win here as opposed to constantly deploying/selling

VeeMiner

hero member

Activity: 752

Merit: 500

bitcoin hodler

OK, not on my PC, div speculation - 0.007. Let me know when someone can confirm when the div actually arrives

velacreations

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: Rival on October 09, 2013, 10:35:44 AM

If no one is making any profit, how will anything get developed and brought to market? You are predicting the end of bitcoin mining, which I feel is unlikely. Folks will always find improved designs, improved processes, and will continue to profit for the foreseeable future.

500 TH is about to be up for sale in the short term, which will increase the dividends significantly for at least 8 weeks.

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Rival on October 09, 2013, 10:11:00 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 10:08:14 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on October 09, 2013, 09:43:18 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:37:18 AM

Quote from: supert on October 09, 2013, 09:13:25 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me. Friedcat is too optimistic. Profit margin dropped from 82% in June to current 30% maybe, and it continues to drop. No one can stop it. I think it will hit zero sometime next year. The profit will be zero no matter how many hardwares you build. You are just too naive.

This projection could be made for any mining stock or hardware manufacturer. Profit margins are indeed falling for 130nm technology. This does not mean margins for Gen2 and Gen3 will start out where Gen1 left off.

Trust me. Even bitfury will not make any money in 8 months.

If no one is making any profit, how will anything get developed and brought to market? You are predicting the end of bitcoin mining, which I feel is unlikely. Folks will always find improved designs, improved processes, and will continue to profit for the foreseeable future.

Rival

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 502

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 10:08:14 AM

Quote from: binaryFate on October 09, 2013, 09:43:18 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:37:18 AM

Quote from: supert on October 09, 2013, 09:13:25 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me. Friedcat is too optimistic. Profit margin dropped from 82% in June to current 30% maybe, and it continues to drop. No one can stop it. I think it will hit zero sometime next year. The profit will be zero no matter how many hardwares you build. You are just too naive.

This projection could be made for any mining stock or hardware manufacturer. Profit margins are indeed falling for 130nm technology. This does not mean margins for Gen2 and Gen3 will start out where Gen1 left off.

huhai0978

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Quote from: binaryFate on October 09, 2013, 09:43:18 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:37:18 AM

Quote from: supert on October 09, 2013, 09:13:25 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).

Friedcat said the profit margin would be one digit next year. It's friedcat saying it, not me. Friedcat is too optimistic. Profit margin dropped from 82% in June to current 30% maybe, and it continues to drop. No one can stop it. I think it will hit zero sometime next year. The profit will be zero no matter how many hardwares you build. You are just too naive.

binaryFate

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1012

Still wild and free

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:37:18 AM

Quote from: supert on October 09, 2013, 09:13:25 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

This decreasing trend is expected when you keep the same hash rate in a growing network.
Your expectation of nearly zero early next year would be true if AM would not build any new hardware.
Your innocent "it is not difficult to calculate" is... innocent. Either you are very naive, or you are a troll. Or you think they won't bring any new hardware, in which case well there is not much to debate, but I think the majority would disagree with you on this point, bears or bulls. Time will tell (HW is expected soon).

huhai0978

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Quote from: supert on October 09, 2013, 09:13:25 AM

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

The div is decreasing at the rate of 10%/week. It is not diffcult to calculate how much you can get back.
My guess is there would be zero divident early next year.

supert

full member

Activity: 160

Merit: 100

Quote from: huhai0978 on October 09, 2013, 09:02:00 AM

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

How are you making this calculation?

huhai0978

member

Activity: 68

Merit: 10

Quote from: velacreations on October 08, 2013, 08:36:31 PM

I'm thinking AM direct shares are a good thing to own right now...

I am thinking the opposite. The divident will be less than 0.3B during the whole life span of AM. Who would pay 1B for 0.3B divident in the next 10 yrs?
Keeping direct AM share is kind like committing suicide.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 92. (Read 808905 times)