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Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 99. (Read 808847 times)

legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 25, 2013, 09:15:00 AM
asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

Not really. I'd argue most amateur miners (the ones that typically buy AM) are also residential miners.

If, like me, you can only pull so much energy out of the wall (lets say 1KW/h) it is not attractive to go with 130nm chips because it limits the total hashrate you can get out of that energy budget. The block eruptors use 7.5W/GH for example. Compare that with HashFast or Cointerra at 0.65W/GH.

A budget of 1000W/h buys me:
133GH/s with AM 130nm ASICs
1500GH/s with a 28nm manufacturers ASIC.

133GH/s is going to be a joke by the end of the year. So yes, most people will stop buying AM.
(Perhaps there is miner that moves to Siberia and scoops up all the cheap 130nm AM products if the price is low enough, i.e. no profit margin on hardware)

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.
Agreed, that is the reason FC said gen2 will come "in time".
hero member
Activity: 752
Merit: 500
bitcoin hodler
September 25, 2013, 09:12:39 AM
asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

Not really. I'd argue most amateur miners (the ones that typically buy AM) are also residential miners.

If, like me, you can only pull so much energy out of the wall (lets say 1KW/h) it is not attractive to go with 130nm chips because it limits the total hashrate you can get out of that energy budget. The block eruptors use 7.5W/GH for example. Compare that with HashFast or Cointerra at 0.65W/GH.

A budget of 1000W/h buys me:
133GH/s with AM 130nm ASICs
1500GH/s with a 28nm manufacturers ASIC.

133GH/s is going to be a joke by the end of the year. So yes, most people will stop buying AM.
(Perhaps there is miner that moves to Siberia and scoops up all the cheap 130nm AM products if the price is low enough, i.e. no profit margin on hardware)

HashFast and Cointerra have no product as yet. And AM will have second gen chips so there is nothing much to worry about here.
hero member
Activity: 761
Merit: 500
Mine Silent, Mine Deep
September 25, 2013, 09:06:37 AM
asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.

Not really. I'd argue most amateur miners (the ones that typically buy AM) are also residential miners.

If, like me, you can only pull so much energy out of the wall (lets say 1KW/h) it is not attractive to go with 130nm chips because it limits the total hashrate you can get out of that energy budget. The block eruptors use 7.5W/GH for example. Compare that with HashFast or Cointerra at 0.65W/GH.

A budget of 1000W/h buys me:
133GH/s with AM 130nm ASICs
1500GH/s with a 28nm manufacturers ASIC.

133GH/s is going to be a joke by the end of the year. So yes, most people will stop buying AM.
(Perhaps there is miner that moves to Siberia and scoops up all the cheap 130nm AM products if the price is low enough, i.e. no profit margin on hardware)
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011
September 25, 2013, 09:00:28 AM
asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.



that is true only if the price takes in consideration 30 % network growth every 2 weeks.

and I doubt that will happen.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
September 25, 2013, 08:53:27 AM
asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?

Everybody, if price is set properly.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011
September 25, 2013, 08:51:27 AM

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........


lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.



my point:

with difficulty skyrocketing BFL hardware became obsolete.

now, friedcat is doing the same thing with shareholders. take in consideration that a lot of hardware is going to be deployed this month.

asic bubble is coming to an end. who will buy that 130 nm hardware?
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
September 25, 2013, 08:44:38 AM
Having to live with weak dividends for "entire weeks". I know mining is is short-term game but if all you can think about is the next couple of weeks, you really shouldn't be investing in anything at all. Its ridiculous.

well, that's how the market reacts.  It may seem unreasonable to us, especially when you look back, but that's the way it is.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
September 25, 2013, 08:07:27 AM
BFL won't be problem since AM's production price is invincible Cheesy

This is why I own shares in AM.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
September 25, 2013, 08:04:07 AM

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........


lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.

Although it appears that waiting game is coming to an end. BFL is shipping metric asstons now.

One concept later BFL purchasers failed to recognize was that by the time they got their order, BFL would have shipped all of the orders before them in the queue. That is massive hash that would come online prior to getting theirs to plug in, running the difficulty sky-high. The only real winners were those who ordered very early. Many early pre-orders had to wait a year, but even so they still got the first mover advantage. Everyone else, well, not so much. In bitcoinland this advantage cannot be overstated. You see it again and again and again.

The hash attributable to delivered BFL devices is rather huge but tends to be ignored because of the blind hatred so many have for the company. And it is accelerating fairly rapidly. It would not surprise me if in a few months you can order as many Jallys or singles you want from BFL and get them delivered in a few days. That will have a pretty serious effect on other ASIC providers, AM included.

BFL won't be problem since AM's production price is invincible Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
September 25, 2013, 07:58:11 AM

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........


lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.

Although it appears that waiting game is coming to an end. BFL is shipping metric asstons now.

One concept later BFL purchasers failed to recognize was that by the time they got their order, BFL would have shipped all of the orders before them in the queue. That is massive hash that would come online prior to getting theirs to plug in, running the difficulty sky-high. The only real winners were those who ordered very early. Many early pre-orders had to wait a year, but even so they still got the first mover advantage. Everyone else, well, not so much. In bitcoinland this advantage cannot be overstated. You see it again and again and again.

The hash attributable to delivered BFL devices is rather huge but tends to be ignored because of the blind hatred so many have for the company. And it is accelerating fairly rapidly. It would not surprise me if in a few months you can order as many Jallys or singles you want from BFL and get them delivered in a few days. That will have a pretty serious effect on other ASIC providers, AM included.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
September 25, 2013, 07:45:42 AM

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........


lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.

They didn't wait 2 weeks. They waited 8 months. apples and oranges.
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011
September 25, 2013, 05:42:29 AM

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........


lets ask BFL customers how hard is to wait for 2 weeks.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
September 25, 2013, 05:22:40 AM
Weaker dividends compared to ASICMiner. That is a trend, so you might expect AM dividends to be even lower in the future (certainly the far future, near future is less clear).
Why are you guys making me agree with Vycid?

But seriously, the dividend will be weak compared to previous AM dividends.  It is likely that the divs will be low for a few weeks, and then start to improve.

Yeah, we probably have to endure three weak dividends until it takes up again

Just how hard is that? To wait three weeks? Honestly ...........
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
September 25, 2013, 05:21:39 AM
I think i will craft some options especially for you Smiley

I admire your optimism, but I'm curious, what do you think will keep the share price up after tomorrow's div of < .01?

Hardware sales will be big but most important is board statment...
yes, but we won't actually see anything for several weeks.  Until then, people have to live with weak dividends, and that might prove to be difficult for some.

Having to live with weak dividends for "entire weeks". I know mining is is short-term game but if all you can think about is the next couple of weeks, you really shouldn't be investing in anything at all. Its ridiculous.
member
Activity: 88
Merit: 10
The sheep who walks through walls.
September 25, 2013, 03:23:48 AM
When I asked Burnside about what would happen to ASICMINER-PT shares, he confirmed that if you do nothing before October 10th, all remaining shares will be converted to direct shares.  If you would prefer to have them on Havelock, TAT has offered to convert anyone's shares to AM1 shares.

You are welcome to push your ASICMINER-PT shares to my account on BTCT.co, TATInvestments, where I can convert them to AM1 shares on Havelock.
See https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=AM1 for full details and instructions.

There are no management fees on dividends for AM1 and Havelock has low trade fees as well.

PLEASE DO NOT DO THIS UNTIL AFTER THIS WEEK'S DIVIDENDS. ALSO DO NOT DO THIS IF YOU ARE JUST TRYING TO EXPORT TO DIRECT SHARES FASTER (IT WILL NOT BE FASTER, IF YOU INTEND TO HOLD DIRECT SHARES, JUST WAIT FOR BURNSIDE TO DO THEM).

Havelock only charges .4% trade fees on Sales, there is no fee to Buy, nor any fees to have an account.

full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
September 25, 2013, 01:37:19 AM
Burnside has stated that shares held with him will go direct. However, Friedcat's update suggests a migration to TAT/Havelock AM1 "if agreeable".

I would prefer direct shares at this point. Any idea what's going to happen?
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
September 24, 2013, 11:22:32 PM
Was witness to this bet so yep its legit
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
September 24, 2013, 10:12:59 PM
I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.
Only if the dividends are maintained.  

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized.  

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC.  

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.
I am more like 0.5BTC sure;)  BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares.  
I win if any trades for 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC
You win if vice-versa
deall?

Sounds good! No short selling on your part.
I'll keep to my word.  If you worried, we can escrow the bets.
Hey kibble, I won our bet!  We hit 1BTC yesterday (below the 1.2BTC I called before 3.2BTC).  Pay up:)
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
September 24, 2013, 01:44:07 PM
Why are you guys making me agree with Vycid?

Have you been disagreeing with me this whole time just out of spite? That must have been expensive.
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
September 24, 2013, 01:32:45 PM
Weaker dividends compared to ASICMiner. That is a trend, so you might expect AM dividends to be even lower in the future (certainly the far future, near future is less clear).
Why are you guys making me agree with Vycid?

But seriously, the dividend will be weak compared to previous AM dividends.  It is likely that the divs will be low for a few weeks, and then start to improve.

Yeah, we probably have to endure three weak dividends until it takes up again
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