ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 103.

mechs

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Quote from: BitAddict on September 21, 2013, 08:43:34 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

Also, franchising makes little sense anymore. AM is no longer in any danger of taking over a majority of the network (though Ghash.io and BTCGuild are another matter).

A sensible strategy would be to mine with all gen 2 produced until it is breakeven between mining and selling. Then at that point sell gen 2 and work on gen 3.

BitAddict

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Quote from: ?? on ??

People seem to be missing hardware sales. It looks like AsicMiner chose to sell instead of mine for pretty much everything they are producing. Given the prices, it looks like the most profitable thing to do. (Already mentioned a few pages before.)

I still think financials aren't hard, like once a month. Total mined, total sold, what is kept for reinvestment.

I totally agree with that. At this point is better to sell all hardware. Take all the money now and start reinvesting in gen2, also they will probably get more profit than just mining.

The question is how fast are they going to start selling/mining with gen2, because the first takes all the market.

stripykitteh

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Quote from: binaryFate on September 21, 2013, 05:06:33 PM

Pression to move towards more info makes sense from the shareholder point of view, not really the company one.

Yes, I agree.

When the company's dividends and share price tanks the way this has over the last couple of months I'd say it's foolish to be satisfied with near-silence from management, unless an investor is happy to ride the price all the way to the bottom for some reason. OK, if you own thousands of shares you are not going to be able to liquidate that volume of stock easily (except perhaps off-market) but those early investors have seen a massive return on their investment already and can afford to take a long-term view. Little guys who bought in over the last few months and have held because they 'trust friedcat' have been shafted, not because friedcat is untrustworthy per se, but because it's not his job to look after them. He is running a business to the best of his ability, I am sure, but that doesn't mean that latecomers are not going to not take a bath if they buy and hold while the share price plummets.

binaryFate

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Reading concerns here, even I forget how incredibly transparent AM his. We get dividends EACH week, from mining addresses we can follow day by day, we can estimate hash rate too, day by day, and we can have a rather precise idea of the sells going on. What remains unknown then? Well, a lot about future investments (and still we know some numbers), but I'm happy not knowing this info because it also means competitors don't know it either.

FC gave us 3 updates over the last 3 months. Nothing has changed recently, he did not became silent all of sudden, but before nobody was caring so much about that. Everybody's freaking out now because of share price, but from friedcat perspective, he will probably keep running his business the same way, no matter how loud the begs for more info are.

There are two antagonist approaches: (i) full trust in FC and co, and (ii) large quantity of info in our own hands. Actual trade-off can be put everywhere between the two extremes.
My point is, I haven't seen the AM trade-off changing lately. Pression to move towards more info makes sense from the shareholder point of view, not really the company one.

lophie

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Quote from: stripykitteh on September 21, 2013, 04:40:30 PM

Quote from: lophie on September 21, 2013, 08:22:02 AM

The market has determined that a price of 1.55BTC per share (Bitfunder) is a fair price for a company that would yield 30% a year (calculating from the worst div they ever gave)?

The market beg to disagree and who does not see this as an opportunity to buy in is not realistic. The silence of The Cat is indeed a scary thing but what is getting the price down is just panic.

My opinion only.

The question you need to ask yourself is whether dividends at this level are sustainable or not. Without a clear picture of what upcoming expenses there are, you can't say.

Indeed I cannot say or even start to speculate......... my believe in The Cat is getting shaky over his silence.....

stripykitteh

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Quote from: lophie on September 21, 2013, 08:22:02 AM

The market has determined that a price of 1.55BTC per share (Bitfunder) is a fair price for a company that would yield 30% a year (calculating from the worst div they ever gave)?

The market beg to disagree and who does not see this as an opportunity to buy in is not realistic. The silence of The Cat is indeed a scary thing but what is getting the price down is just panic.

My opinion only.

The question you need to ask yourself is whether dividends at this level are sustainable or not. Without a clear picture of what upcoming expenses there are, you can't say.

ThunderSheep

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Quote from: EskimoBob on September 21, 2013, 07:10:32 AM

Quote from: ex-trader on September 21, 2013, 02:26:17 AM

Quote from: tinus42 on September 20, 2013, 02:13:55 PM

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares. Wink

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

Until you guys have not see the financial statements for AM, you can not evaluate the company. Period.
Until then, it's all pure speculation and frankly, a really useless one.

Quote

"market has deteremined"

Really, based on exactly what? Colour of the sky or friedcats eyes? Or just emotions and rampant hysteria, present in 600+ pages of useless guessing?

Please put pressure on Friedcat and get the numbers published.
Only then start talking about what AM is worth now or estimate it's future value.

Does this count?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2788821

Edit: If he plans to update quarterly, you should have updated numbers in about a month.

adamstgBit

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Quote from: lophie on September 21, 2013, 01:11:08 PM

Something is a bit noticeable in the this share price fiasco... For a while now TAT.ASICMINER is traded on higher prices than G.ASICMNER-PT. Given that Ukyo dealt with the whole PT ownership transfer thing, I started to think that the price is undervalued due to a specific type of long term investors cashing out. Probably some IPO shareholders. I don't blame them this is the strategy I am following myself. To wait until competition arises. Sell all shares and "maybe" get back in smaller percentage of portfolio when the price is even lower.

The question is for the long term investors that are willing to hold their grounds. How long would this storm persist............

Answer our question, oh dear cat.

it will take a while...
but selling now it kinda silly
we all know and understand why the divs have been a bit low
yet at these prices it still 30%

lophie

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Something is a bit noticeable in the this share price fiasco... For a while now TAT.ASICMINER is traded on higher prices than G.ASICMNER-PT. Given that Ukyo dealt with the whole PT ownership transfer thing, I started to think that the price is undervalued due to a specific type of long term investors cashing out. Probably some IPO shareholders. I don't blame them this is the strategy I am following myself. To wait until competition arises. Sell all shares and "maybe" get back in smaller percentage of portfolio when the price is even lower.

The question is for the long term investors that are willing to hold their grounds. How long would this storm persist............

Answer our question, oh dear cat.

mechs

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Quote from: EskimoBob on September 21, 2013, 07:10:32 AM

Quote from: ex-trader on September 21, 2013, 02:26:17 AM

Quote from: tinus42 on September 20, 2013, 02:13:55 PM

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares. Wink

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

Until you guys have not see the financial statements for AM, you can not evaluate the company. Period.
Until then, it's all pure speculation and frankly, a really useless one.

Quote

"market has deteremined"

Really, based on exactly what? Colour of the sky or friedcats eyes? Or just emotions and rampant hysteria, present in 600+ pages of useless guessing?

Please put pressure on Friedcat and get the numbers published.
Only then start talking about what AM is worth now or estimate it's future value.

The lack of transparency about the financial statements in itself is a red flag which is a deserving reason to further lower the share price.

lophie

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The market has determined that a price of 1.55BTC per share (Bitfunder) is a fair price for a company that would yield 30% a year (calculating from the worst div they ever gave)?

The market beg to disagree and who does not see this as an opportunity to buy in is not realistic. The silence of The Cat is indeed a scary thing but what is getting the price down is just panic.

My opinion only.

EskimoBob

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 21, 2013, 02:26:17 AM

Quote from: tinus42 on September 20, 2013, 02:13:55 PM

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares. Wink

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

Until you guys have not see the financial statements for AM, you can not evaluate the company. Period.
Until then, it's all pure speculation and frankly, a really useless one.

Quote

"market has deteremined"

Really, based on exactly what? Colour of the sky or friedcats eyes? Or just emotions and rampant hysteria, present in 600+ pages of useless guessing?

Please put pressure on Friedcat and get the numbers published.
Only then start talking about what AM is worth now or estimate it's future value.

KarmaShark

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Quote from: stripykitteh on September 21, 2013, 03:08:46 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Yes Vycid delivery was annoying. I must say I'm enjoying what he is writing a lot these days whether I agree or not.

I think it was a reaction to the groupthink that was rampant here a while ago (I admit I was part of it, for a bit). It seems to have abated mostly now so his tone has moderated in response.

Well said Stripykitteh,

Back in the spring / summer the free coin was flowing a plenty. No one wanted to hear that the share price would stop rising OR the dividends would dry up at some point. To Vycid's credit, he was one of the lone voices of reason calling for a market correction.

Vycid, you know as well as I do that if you took a softer approach to the AM faithful the knowledge you possess will go much farther in others minds around here, and clearly that is something you hold in esteem. We could have used a few bears back then with thick skin, few were willing to appeal to logic. Suffice to say you will have plenty to discuss during AM's next bull run this Winter ("Did IQ's just suddenly drop around here??? 7฿ is a RIP OFF!!!! Down to 1฿ AGAIN!!!!!!")

stripykitteh

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Yes Vycid delivery was annoying. I must say I'm enjoying what he is writing a lot these days whether I agree or not.

I think it was a reaction to the groupthink that was rampant here a while ago (I admit I was part of it, for a bit). It seems to have abated mostly now so his tone has moderated in response.

supert

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Quote from: ex-trader on September 21, 2013, 02:26:17 AM

Quote from: tinus42 on September 20, 2013, 02:13:55 PM

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares. Wink

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

I didn't call vycid a troll because he was bearish. As i said then i agreed with some of his points. I called him a troll because he was trolling and at one point was over half the post count.

freedomno1

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Quote from: binaryFate on September 20, 2013, 07:37:29 PM

The main AM thread is going, well... enough off topic lately. So I ask here: what the hell is going on with activemining?
Anybody who is following closely the story could summarize the latest news?? Thanks!

You sure you mean activemining not labcoin also in the AM thread so trinity of confusion on the proper reply

ex-trader

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Quote from: tinus42 on September 20, 2013, 02:13:55 PM

I hope the share price drops to 1.2. Then a) we won't hear from Vycid anymore and b) I can buy cheap shares. Wink

For what it's worth, everyone who got very annoyed at Vycid has been proved wrong and he has been proved right. All the time he said (as did I) that AM was a great company, but was over-valued at 5/4/3 BTC he got shouted down, told he was spreading FUD etc.

Guess what, the market has deteremined the price and right now it's the sub-2 level that was predicted. The market has decided this, not Vycid and all the 'to the moon' AM fanboys should be eating just a little humble pie right now.

It's not to say that we won't have a huge and sudden bouce when AM bring on stream their new chips etc though. This does highlight the stupidity of looking at hash-rates/shares/divs on a weekly basis, as the resulting share volatility is so high.

Vexual

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Quote from: empoweoqwj on September 20, 2013, 10:06:58 PM

People say "it doesn't affect competitors" but I bet it darned well does. If FC announced Gen2 was launching on November 17th, do you think competitors will care? Of course they will. They will do everything in their power to beat FC to the punch. There is nothing like "fear of being beaten / bankrupt" to incentivise people to work harder.

Never incentivise your competition.

So true. Far more important than placating a few tunnel visioned share traders.
Friedcat is writing the book on this game, and I am looking forward to the next chaper, in due course.

empoweoqwj

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Quote from: mechs on September 20, 2013, 09:20:18 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 20, 2013, 08:35:20 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 20, 2013, 08:23:45 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 20, 2013, 07:56:37 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 20, 2013, 07:39:31 PM

Traded as low as 1.65 today. This is going to under 1.5 with a bad dividend next wednesday

I strongly suspect FC will make an announcement before then. If a poor Wednesday dividend comes and goes with no news, 1.5 would seem a generous backstop.

I don't think FC cares about the share price. He cares about performance of the company.

Yes, but we're setting records for the least communication just as the most things to communicate about should be happening.

He has released big updates around the 22-23rd of the month a couple times. It will speak clearly of the state of things if he does not.

He will say gen 2 is moving along. Dividends being retained for R&D. There will be no precise dates or figures. Only generalities. What is that really worth?

Worth nothing really. But words are cheap. BFL, activemining were full of words ......... who can give precise dates, except people that lie?

He will say very little, as he always does, but so what? Microsoft don't sit there telling their competitors what they are going to to in advance until they absolutely have to. FC just doesn't have to. He has nothing to gain from it.

People say "it doesn't affect competitors" but I bet it darned well does. If FC announced Gen2 was launching on November 17th, do you think competitors will care? Of course they will. They will do everything in their power to beat FC to the punch. There is nothing like "fear of being beaten / bankrupt" to incentivise people to work harder.

Never incentivise your competition.

Vycid

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♫ the AM bear who cares ♫

Quote from: mechs on September 20, 2013, 09:20:18 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 20, 2013, 08:35:20 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 20, 2013, 08:23:45 PM

Quote from: Vycid on September 20, 2013, 07:56:37 PM

Quote from: mechs on September 20, 2013, 07:39:31 PM

Traded as low as 1.65 today. This is going to under 1.5 with a bad dividend next wednesday

I strongly suspect FC will make an announcement before then. If a poor Wednesday dividend comes and goes with no news, 1.5 would seem a generous backstop.

I don't think FC cares about the share price. He cares about performance of the company.

Yes, but we're setting records for the least communication just as the most things to communicate about should be happening.

He has released big updates around the 22-23rd of the month a couple times. It will speak clearly of the state of things if he does not.

He will say gen 2 is moving along. Dividends being retained for R&D. There will be no precise dates or figures. Only generalities. What is that really worth?

A lot, actually. "Gen 2 is moving along" excludes the possibility "Gen 2 is not moving along".

If he makes that statement, 1.7-1.8 should hold a bit longer. Otherwise I will be lowering my price target to reflect the (lack of) new information.

Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread - page 103. (Read 808905 times)