Decision = Ugas 30% Spence 70% lol
This is probably the best probability for the fight since they are fighting in the USA where if you are not a citizen there, you need to work harder to knock out your opponent because if you let the official decide the match, it would be total chaos because it always drips away from the unofficial scorecard, especially a championship fight like this where one of the fighters is totally underdog.
I would disagree with the decision percentage, I think that's too high given for Spence considering they are both champions in this division. If the fight reaches the judges' scorecards, it's either one is not engaging a lot, or it's a closer fight where both fighters are strong enough to absorb punches from each other.
I think 60/40 would be fair enough, but it depends on who performs better, so I won't choose a boxer for a certain percentage.