[CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 - page 7.

South Park

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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

Quote from: qwertyup23 on February 08, 2023, 06:15:34 PM

Quote from: BitcoinAccepted on February 08, 2023, 04:22:29 PM

If you want to make money betting on chess, I would definitely go for the draw option. Many games end in a draw. You have to see who is playing then. If Magnus Carlsen is behind the chessboard then I would watch out because he goes for the win every game. There are a number of players who often draw draws, for example you used to have Giri who drew extremely often. And in the last rounds of a tournament you often have the chance of a quick draw so that players can pack their bags and rest. But I wouldn't bet on speed chess games. There are far fewer draws.

I somehow disagree with your statement as it depends on several factors.

First, you have to consider the time/game format of the tournament. If it involves a classical match between the players, then expect draws to happen given the nature of it- more players have time to calculate and the pressure is relatively low. But, if the game is either rapid or bullet, then drawing the game is most likely off the table as there will be a player that will most likely blunder at the end.

Second, you must also consider the players that will participate. Like you mentioned, Giri has that reputation of drawing such games but if you watched closely, he actually won the recent 2023 Tata Steel Championship. So I guess, him drawing the games are not possible anymore.

Lastly, you must also consider the overall tournament that will happen. If it is a big tournament where top GMs will participate, then expect outrage and chaos on the board.

Another simple factor is that it is not as if the bookies do not know this, bookies know that bettors most of the time go for the safest option they have available and in the game of chess between two players of similar ability a draw is the most common outcome, so they probably give the worst possible odds to the draw bet so all the people which go for that kind of bet instead of going for the safest route as they hope they are taking the riskiest one.

Zackgeno96

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Quote from: qwertyup23 on February 08, 2023, 06:15:34 PM

Quote from: BitcoinAccepted on February 08, 2023, 04:22:29 PM

If you want to make money betting on chess, I would definitely go for the draw option. Many games end in a draw. You have to see who is playing then. If Magnus Carlsen is behind the chessboard then I would watch out because he goes for the win every game. There are a number of players who often draw draws, for example you used to have Giri who drew extremely often. And in the last rounds of a tournament you often have the chance of a quick draw so that players can pack their bags and rest. But I wouldn't bet on speed chess games. There are far fewer draws.

I somehow disagree with your statement as it depends on several factors.

First, you have to consider the time/game format of the tournament. If it involves a classical match between the players, then expect draws to happen given the nature of it- more players have time to calculate and the pressure is relatively low. But, if the game is either rapid or bullet, then drawing the game is most likely off the table as there will be a player that will most likely blunder at the end.

Second, you must also consider the players that will participate. Like you mentioned, Giri has that reputation of drawing such games but if you watched closely, he actually won the recent 2023 Tata Steel Championship. So I guess, him drawing the games are not possible anymore.

Lastly, you must also consider the overall tournament that will happen. If it is a big tournament where top GMs will participate, then expect outrage and chaos on the board.

The average results are that a game between 2 GMs has a high chance of ending in a draw. You can also check this with the bookmakers. But that only applies to regular parties. I think it is one of the few sports where you get such a low amount for a draw with a bet. The question is what Carlsen will do next with a view to his world title. He has indicated that he would only like to play another match against Firouzja, but maybe he should reconsider that statement after suffering some hard defeats in the tournament at Wijk aan Zee, where Giri proved really solid and Carlsen suffered a dip had 2 rounds.

qwertyup23

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Quote from: BitcoinAccepted on February 08, 2023, 04:22:29 PM

If you want to make money betting on chess, I would definitely go for the draw option. Many games end in a draw. You have to see who is playing then. If Magnus Carlsen is behind the chessboard then I would watch out because he goes for the win every game. There are a number of players who often draw draws, for example you used to have Giri who drew extremely often. And in the last rounds of a tournament you often have the chance of a quick draw so that players can pack their bags and rest. But I wouldn't bet on speed chess games. There are far fewer draws.

I somehow disagree with your statement as it depends on several factors.

First, you have to consider the time/game format of the tournament. If it involves a classical match between the players, then expect draws to happen given the nature of it- more players have time to calculate and the pressure is relatively low. But, if the game is either rapid or bullet, then drawing the game is most likely off the table as there will be a player that will most likely blunder at the end.

Second, you must also consider the players that will participate. Like you mentioned, Giri has that reputation of drawing such games but if you watched closely, he actually won the recent 2023 Tata Steel Championship. So I guess, him drawing the games are not possible anymore.

Lastly, you must also consider the overall tournament that will happen. If it is a big tournament where top GMs will participate, then expect outrage and chaos on the board.

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If you want to make money betting on chess, I would definitely go for the draw option. Many games end in a draw. You have to see who is playing then. If Magnus Carlsen is behind the chessboard then I would watch out because he goes for the win every game. There are a number of players who often draw draws, for example you used to have Giri who drew extremely often. And in the last rounds of a tournament you often have the chance of a quick draw so that players can pack their bags and rest. But I wouldn't bet on speed chess games. There are far fewer draws.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 03, 2023, 03:19:48 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on February 02, 2023, 10:47:45 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 01, 2023, 03:47:32 PM

As I said, Ding Liren's failure had a dramatic effect on his rating - he not only flew out of the 2800 club (where only Carlsen is now lol), but even fell to third place. Now he has 2788 points, while Nepomniachtchi (who moved up to second place for the first time in his career) has 2793. Quite an interesting rearrangement before the match for the chess crown. However, a match and a tournament are still very different things, so it's not a fact that any conclusions can be drawn from these events.

after reading this post I realized I don't know much of the calculations of the rating system was curious about it
I understand how it works to match similar level players and that'll earn more points by beating someone with a higher rating than you instead of a lower one
but I didn't know how's the math on that

found this:
https://www.chess.com/terms/elo-rating-chess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

the probability bit is really interesting:

Quote

Calculating the probable outcome of chess games is one of the fascinating aspects of this rating system: it takes into consideration the fluctuations in a player's performance. From time to time, we all have bad days when we play poorly. Even when we are at our best, we can still slip up and make a game-losing blunder.

If you are interested in sports betting, then you should study this issue well Wink

The strength of teams/ranking/etc are based on this math and then reflected in bookmaker quotes. The quotes that bookmakers give us are inversely proportional to the probability that the team/player will win. It's all about probabilities.

quite interesting
is it always the case?

I'll definitely look more into it

so soccer, basketball and other sports bookers also use the same elo systems?

do you have any links to point me to on that?

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Quote from: Zackgeno96 on February 03, 2023, 03:47:30 PM

Ding Liren has indeed played a bad tournament for him. Anyway, if you have a rating of 2800+ then you also have to achieve a TPR of 2800+ in order not to lose any rating points. Giri, the tournament winner is the big winner on all fronts. Tournament win, a lot of prize money and also won a lot of points for his rating. A list of all chess players with a rating of 2700 or higher is also available at www.2700chess.com
A number of talented chess players have been added. Hans Niemann is also on this list, but tournament organizers won't be thrilled with his participation because he has been accused of cheating at several tournaments. Well, innocent until proven guilty, I guess?

Ding Liren has indeed lost a lot of points, but he also seems to be less active. And Nepomniachi has been suspended for several months by FIDE for his open support of Puting. I especially expected more from Ding Liren during this tournament. Firouzja was also the big absentee, but rumor has it that he did not agree with the amount of the prize money. He can of course make certain demands as a top 3-4 player in the world. And the year before, there was also an incident in a party of Firouzja, who was asked during his game if they wanted to continue their party in another place. Those are things that are really not done, was a gross blunder by the then arbitrator.

Zackgeno96

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Ding Liren has indeed played a bad tournament for him. Anyway, if you have a rating of 2800+ then you also have to achieve a TPR of 2800+ in order not to lose any rating points. Giri, the tournament winner is the big winner on all fronts. Tournament win, a lot of prize money and also won a lot of points for his rating. A list of all chess players with a rating of 2700 or higher is also available at www.2700chess.com
A number of talented chess players have been added. Hans Niemann is also on this list, but tournament organizers won't be thrilled with his participation because he has been accused of cheating at several tournaments. Well, innocent until proven guilty, I guess?

KTChampions

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on February 02, 2023, 10:47:45 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 01, 2023, 03:47:32 PM

As I said, Ding Liren's failure had a dramatic effect on his rating - he not only flew out of the 2800 club (where only Carlsen is now lol), but even fell to third place. Now he has 2788 points, while Nepomniachtchi (who moved up to second place for the first time in his career) has 2793. Quite an interesting rearrangement before the match for the chess crown. However, a match and a tournament are still very different things, so it's not a fact that any conclusions can be drawn from these events.

after reading this post I realized I don't know much of the calculations of the rating system was curious about it
I understand how it works to match similar level players and that'll earn more points by beating someone with a higher rating than you instead of a lower one
but I didn't know how's the math on that

found this:
https://www.chess.com/terms/elo-rating-chess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

the probability bit is really interesting:

Quote

Calculating the probable outcome of chess games is one of the fascinating aspects of this rating system: it takes into consideration the fluctuations in a player's performance. From time to time, we all have bad days when we play poorly. Even when we are at our best, we can still slip up and make a game-losing blunder.

If you are interested in sports betting, then you should study this issue well Wink

The strength of teams/ranking/etc are based on this math and then reflected in bookmaker quotes. The quotes that bookmakers give us are inversely proportional to the probability that the team/player will win. It's all about probabilities.

South Park

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I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!

Quote from: dothebeats on February 01, 2023, 11:43:50 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on February 01, 2023, 03:47:32 PM

As I said, Ding Liren's failure had a dramatic effect on his rating - he not only flew out of the 2800 club (where only Carlsen is now lol), but even fell to third place. Now he has 2788 points, while Nepomniachtchi (who moved up to second place for the first time in his career) has 2793. Quite an interesting rearrangement before the match for the chess crown. However, a match and a tournament are still very different things, so it's not a fact that any conclusions can be drawn from these events.

Even still, this shows that a lot of players are still improving that they managed to win against the current number 2 who is known for his solid defense and very conservative midgames. Giri for example, edged out a lot of strong players and managed to win the tournament despite Abdusattorov being the favorite. Quite sad for Ding honestly, but it is what it is. He might not have time to prepare unlike his opponents in this tournament but oh well.

It is not rare for candidates for the championship to suffer from bad performances on the months leading up to the match, and this is not only because Ding is studying his opponent exclusively. leaving everything to the side, but this also happens because whatever breakthrough and new moves his team could device are being kept in secret, and this could cause a decrease in his performance as it is the equivalent of fighting with one of your hands behind your back.

LUCKMCFLY

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Quote from: Zackgeno96 on January 20, 2023, 04:00:46 PM

A pretty boring day today. Played an awful lot of draws, which is not uncommon. Carlsen couldn't achieve much with black against van Foreest and so the gap to the leader remains large. I wouldn't dare say who the absolute favorite is, since this field is so strong that everyone can win and lose against each other. Good preparation is half the work. There were also rumors that Firouzja would not participate because he could not agree on the negotiation of his participation money in the tournament. It's strange, as a chess player you want to keep playing against the absolute world top, don't you? Not participating due to a refusal of starting money can also damage your reputation.

The truth is that I have missed all the games of this championship, could you tell me where I can see these games =?' Since I have not seen any and I would like to know if they have any special channel to be able to acquire it, I do not have IPTV but just to see the channel that this type of competition can give me, I am able to put it, look around for someone who provides the service for Being able to enjoy watching it on the internet afterwards is also interesting, but there is nothing like seeing it live, the sports channels I have do not cover this type of event, which seems to me a big flaw for the cble company, however I would like to see them live, it is something extreme, but I like this sport a lot.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 01, 2023, 03:47:32 PM

As I said, Ding Liren's failure had a dramatic effect on his rating - he not only flew out of the 2800 club (where only Carlsen is now lol), but even fell to third place. Now he has 2788 points, while Nepomniachtchi (who moved up to second place for the first time in his career) has 2793. Quite an interesting rearrangement before the match for the chess crown. However, a match and a tournament are still very different things, so it's not a fact that any conclusions can be drawn from these events.

after reading this post I realized I don't know much of the calculations of the rating system was curious about it
I understand how it works to match similar level players and that'll earn more points by beating someone with a higher rating than you instead of a lower one
but I didn't know how's the math on that

found this:
https://www.chess.com/terms/elo-rating-chess
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system

the probability bit is really interesting:

Quote

Calculating the probable outcome of chess games is one of the fascinating aspects of this rating system: it takes into consideration the fluctuations in a player's performance. From time to time, we all have bad days when we play poorly. Even when we are at our best, we can still slip up and make a game-losing blunder.

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 01, 2023, 03:47:32 PM

As I said, Ding Liren's failure had a dramatic effect on his rating - he not only flew out of the 2800 club (where only Carlsen is now lol), but even fell to third place. Now he has 2788 points, while Nepomniachtchi (who moved up to second place for the first time in his career) has 2793. Quite an interesting rearrangement before the match for the chess crown. However, a match and a tournament are still very different things, so it's not a fact that any conclusions can be drawn from these events.

Even still, this shows that a lot of players are still improving that they managed to win against the current number 2 who is known for his solid defense and very conservative midgames. Giri for example, edged out a lot of strong players and managed to win the tournament despite Abdusattorov being the favorite. Quite sad for Ding honestly, but it is what it is. He might not have time to prepare unlike his opponents in this tournament but oh well.

KTChampions

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As I said, Ding Liren's failure had a dramatic effect on his rating - he not only flew out of the 2800 club (where only Carlsen is now lol), but even fell to third place. Now he has 2788 points, while Nepomniachtchi (who moved up to second place for the first time in his career) has 2793. Quite an interesting rearrangement before the match for the chess crown. However, a match and a tournament are still very different things, so it's not a fact that any conclusions can be drawn from these events.

Lucasgabd

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There's no need to be upset

in case anyone is interested I found the PGNs of all rounds of Tata Steel Challengers 2023 on lichess

https://lichess.org/broadcast/tata-steel-challengers-2023/round-11/wflCxqsK

this link also includes lots of live tournaments brodcasted there

https://lichess.org/broadcast

for those like me who prefer seeing the games on board instead of video may be a good idea to check

KTChampions

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Quote from: BitcoinAccepted on January 29, 2023, 01:24:56 PM

It is unbelievable but true: The Uzbek handed over the title in the last round, against perhaps the weakest player of this group. Van Foreest won with the black pieces and Giri won with white, so Giri came first and the Uzbek 2nd. Of course he played another great tournament, but one of them was a win with black against Magnus Carlsen halfway through the tournament. And won a lot of rating points, but he won't have much fun now. He has been on top from the start and today suffered his only defeat of the tournament. Perhaps the minimal experience and tension was the deciding factor for him today. In any case, we will hear and see a lot more from him, that's for sure.

Yes, a very disappointing defeat for Abdusattorov. Apparently, the psychological pressure had an effect and before the decisive game he "burned out" - losing with White in such a situation is like losing in football at home to an outsider 0-3.
We should be happy for Giri - before that he had 5 times (lol) taken second place in this tournament and now he was finally able to climb to the top.

Zackgeno96

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Quote from: BitcoinAccepted on January 29, 2023, 01:24:56 PM

It is unbelievable but true: The Uzbek handed over the title in the last round, against perhaps the weakest player of this group. Van Foreest won with the black pieces and Giri won with white, so Giri came first and the Uzbek 2nd. Of course he played another great tournament, but one of them was a win with black against Magnus Carlsen halfway through the tournament. And won a lot of rating points, but he won't have much fun now. He has been on top from the start and today suffered his only defeat of the tournament. Perhaps the minimal experience and tension was the deciding factor for him today. In any case, we will hear and see a lot more from him, that's for sure.

In the long run, I think he was 1.5 points ahead of Giri. But then he started playing too many draws, and Giri played constantly and won a few games. I think Giri is also the only undefeated player in this tournament and can therefore climb up the rankings again. A nice game from Carlsen today, in a very difficult position. He still won that one and that's how he came close to winning. But if you lose 2 games in a row at the beginning of the tournament, you can actually forget about the tournament profit. Van Foreest had a bad tournament but made up for it in one fell swoop by winning against the leader with black today, which the rest of the field had failed to do.

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It is unbelievable but true: The Uzbek handed over the title in the last round, against perhaps the weakest player of this group. Van Foreest won with the black pieces and Giri won with white, so Giri came first and the Uzbek 2nd. Of course he played another great tournament, but one of them was a win with black against Magnus Carlsen halfway through the tournament. And won a lot of rating points, but he won't have much fun now. He has been on top from the start and today suffered his only defeat of the tournament. Perhaps the minimal experience and tension was the deciding factor for him today. In any case, we will hear and see a lot more from him, that's for sure.

KTChampions

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Quote from: dothebeats on January 28, 2023, 11:54:17 AM

Quite surreal that the world's number 2 is so far behind in the standings for Tata Masters. Giri, on the other hand, seems to be playing extremely well, defeating both Magnus and Ding in classical. I know that Abdusattorov is the heavy favorite to win this tournament, but if So wins against him today, that might give Giri the chance to snag the first place and become the tournament champion. Van Foreest will be a hard match against Giri, but a draw would be very much welcome as that still puts Giri in a comfortable position even if Carlsen manages to beat Pragg.

Today's defeat threw Ding Liren straight into the basement. Now he shares the last three places with the other two losers. A truly unexpected result, given that he will take part in the match for the crown. And it turns out that at the end of the tournament his rating should fall below 2800 - with three defeats and zero wins in the tournament where he was number 2 in the rating, this is inevitable.

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Quote from: dothebeats on January 28, 2023, 11:54:17 AM

Quite surreal that the world's number 2 is so far behind in the standings for Tata Masters. Giri, on the other hand, seems to be playing extremely well, defeating both Magnus and Ding in classical. I know that Abdusattorov is the heavy favorite to win this tournament, but if So wins against him today, that might give Giri the chance to snag the first place and become the tournament champion. Van Foreest will be a hard match against Giri, but a draw would be very much welcome as that still puts Giri in a comfortable position even if Carlsen manages to beat Pragg.

Giri got away well against van Foreest who was on the win. Now it's a statement that can go either way. Giri should be better with these kinds of positions, but winning won't be easy. Carlsen no longer has a preference and can now decide whether he will play all or nothing. He could promote black to queen and then see how far he gets with f4. But then a dangerous position arises, which can also work if Black wins if Carlsen goes too far. Given Carlsen's mentality, he may still take some risk to bet full on the win with all the risks that entails.

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Quite surreal that the world's number 2 is so far behind in the standings for Tata Masters. Giri, on the other hand, seems to be playing extremely well, defeating both Magnus and Ding in classical. I know that Abdusattorov is the heavy favorite to win this tournament, but if So wins against him today, that might give Giri the chance to snag the first place and become the tournament champion. Van Foreest will be a hard match against Giri, but a draw would be very much welcome as that still puts Giri in a comfortable position even if Carlsen manages to beat Pragg.

Topic: [CHESS] FIDE Candidates Chess Tournament 2022 - page 7. (Read 3215 times)