Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim (Read 3923 times)

From the news:
....In 2025, 41% of Russia's budget will go to “national defense” - about $135 billion. That's more than spending on education, health care, the economy and social policy combined.
At the same time, spending on Putin and his administration will increase by 25.6% and cost Russians $310 million.

That is, almost half of the budget will simply turn into dust, rusty metal and population decline. Of course, the Kremlin propaganda will show everyone “stable and growing GDP” but everyone knows it's a war budget, which means net losses...

I think this is happening in 2022, if we talk about this year 2024, then Russia has stood on its feet at that time.  Russia is currently the biggest and most dangerous country with more than 6000 nuclear bombs which no other country has. when they bought less food, it can be concluded that Russia has worked hard and well this year and they have also profited from this work.  It can also be said that the number of Russians has decreased due to which the food has been reduced.

Whatever Russia is doing now has been done for some time, although its purpose is something else. The day Russia solves this problem, it will hurt other countries because of the things imported into Russia.  If this black money is not found, it will harm other countries. When this time comes, it will depend on them and their people are also fast enough to solve this problem, but currently Russia and China are also weak in this.

It's interesting to see the current decline of the Ruble to it's lowest in recent history, especially after Gazprom bank was targeted - it has lost one of it's final lifelines now that the stranglehold over gas is broken and the blackmail threats no longer work against Europe. The Russian central bank is having to spend a lot of money to prop up the currency at the moment and this fine balancing act could go wrong very quickly. When external partners lose faith in the value of the currency, they'll charge a lot more and it can end in a vicious downwards spiral with the end result being hyper inflation. Unfortunately there will be little sympathy for the Russian people who have allowed their dictator to wreak so much havoc.

I was told by a friend that the Central Bank of Russia has started to stop all purchases of foreign currency until 2025. The Ruble is currently in its lowest levels since the war against Ukraine started. Their Central Bank is also continuing to sell foreign currency from their reserves to maintain the National Wealth Fund - which is rumored to be collapsing.

Their GDP is down and it has also been reported that Russia will also turn on its money printer to support spending on the war against Ukraine.

 👀

Open up a world map and point me where Russia is and where the US is. I see that Russia and Europe are neighbors. Between USA and Europe there is the ocean. So, EU will indeed pay more money for gas which they’ll buy from the US. Russia is close, USA is far away.

These are the immutable factoids which don’t exist in your dream world.

Tell me, is Ukraine winning?

What do they say in the news in EU? I bet they say the hero Zelensky is about to conquer Moscow and Putin is leaving the country. German news outlets were saying the same thing when the Russian Army was in the streets of Berlin.

Any moment now!

Before making such ridiculous statements, I recommend you study the topic you want to talk about

The EU has diversified gas supplies from a terrorist country. Now the law on energy security is fulfilled, where one supplier can not take not remember exactly, but in my opinion, more than 30% of fuel to the market. You, I understand, did not know about it at all, but read information from the same sources where he wrote that “Europe will freeze without Russian gas, and there is no alternative to it” ?

Yes, and if you go to gas hubs and look at prices for the last year, you will also realize that the phrase “higher price” also sounds silly
The other day Putin's “last stronghold” (international criminal) collapsed and Austria also refused gas supplies from the terrorist country

But if you read the Kremlin propaganda, you will learn that because of the refusal of their gas “the German economy collapsed” there, and throughout Europe “mass and total bankruptcies in all areas of the economy”, “Europe begs gas from Russia on any terms”, “The population heats their homes by burning furniture and clothes” and other Kremlin nonsense

It is Europe’s loss if they don’t want to buy Russian gas tbh. Now they will buy the same product from the US and the price will be much higher because of the high transportation costs. It is the European tax payers that’ll pay for that expensive gas and that’s exactly why the US manufactured the RU/UA conflict.

EU isn’t dependent on RU anymore, they swapped RU with USA.

Thanks to EU some other lucky country will be buying the RU gas for a cheaper price. (And possibly resell it to EU)

Remember all wars are banksters wars. EU is hatin RU and gettin poorer in the process, USA makin monney, RU doesn’t care, again UA and EU get the eggplant.png

I will explain it to you with a historical example. In the Middle Ages, there were knightly orders in Europe. In fact, they were quasi-states.

They were warriors, bound by strict discipline. Knightly orders owned vast territories inhabited by peasants. They could mobilize these peasants and form armies from them. Knightly orders had a strict hierarchy and the lower ranks had to obey the higher ranks without question. The highest rank of a knightly order was the master. Knightly orders were very rich and even engaged in usury. They also protected trade routes and this was also a source of income for the order.

Were there people on the territory of the order who managed financial flows? Yes, there were. For example, knights - treasurers or merchants. Could these people oppose the order? No.

All their well-being depended entirely on serving the order and the master of the order.  Any attempt at disobedience would result in severe punishment.

An important thing to do for all of us to gain valuable experience is to go back and read what the media was saying before.

One of the things the mainstream media does is that they first lie and then by the time their lie is already debunked they have already told us so many more lies that we don't even remember their first lie.

This topic is actually the best example. The lie the mainstream media was telling was that the Russian economy was supposed to collapse by the end of 2022. They spread that propaganda mid 2022 and by the end of 2022 they had told us so many more lies that nobody remembered the original lie. And worst of all is that nobody makes then answer for telling us so many lies, which is why everyone says that real journalism is dead.

The source in OP was an American mouthpiece called businessinsider.com. Now we have a valuable experience and know how unreliable this particular source is. So next time you want to get your financial news from this outlet you can have that in mind.

P.S. Even from US government perspective these propagandas and believing them should be a bad thing because if they hadn't believed their own propaganda 2 years ago and have not thought their sanctions is going to collapse Russian economy, they might have actually thought about a different strategy that would have actually hurt and collapsed the Russian economy and ended the war in Ukraine 2 years ago!!!
But instead they believed their own propaganda and did nothing so Russian economy never collapsed and the war continues

High interest rates doesn't mean there is a competition between banks and that's why it's growing. High interest rates are offered by commercial banks because loan interest rates are high as well, that's all, that automatically happens, it's never a case when loan rate is high and deposit rate is low.
Probably, there is a high inflation and instability in Russia, local banks do not find Rouble safe anymore.

By the way, I don't understand why rich businessmen let Putin to do what he does? Does this man alone really has that much power? Maybe not alone, he says we and probably means KGB when he talks but how is that possible that this man with his team does whatever he wants? There is no rich man or businessman that can stand against him.

The Russian economy is really going through hard times.
Firstly, the Central Bank's key rate is growing very quickly. It has already reached 21 percent, which means that loans in the country are issued at an even higher rate (35-40 percent). At the same time, deposit rates in commercial banks are also growing and are already 21-23 percent.

Today I saw an offer from one commercial bank to open a deposit at a rate of 30 percent!

What does this lead to in practice? It becomes unprofitable to produce anything. It is much easier to sell your business and put your spare money on a deposit at high interest rates. Commercial banks are now raising deposit rates (because they are competing for clients).

But how will they pay interest on deposits? From what funds? And if they are unable to pay interest on deposits after some time, does this mean these banks will have to go bankrupt? More questions than answers ....

The best way to describe the real situation in Russia is the saying “things were going well in the country, one could even say - well, but every day it was getting worse and worse” 

Russian business has started to prepare for the dollar's rise to 120 rubles

Russian companies that buy goods abroad are preparing for a further weakening of the ruble, Kommersant reports, citing representatives of several importers. According to one of Kommersant's sources, an entrepreneur who imports equipment to Russia, his company is putting the dollar at 120-125 rubles in internal calculations.

In the next three to six months, levels of 110-120 rubles per dollar may be reached, the Kommersant interlocutor believes. However, business prefers to work “with a reserve,” he explains: “I don't think any importer is optimistic about the ruble strengthening. It's easier to lay down a bigger spread.

The level of 115 rubles per dollar is also named by Ksenia Ryasova, general director of Finn Flare - one of the largest sellers of clothing in Russia. According to Ryasova, if this mark is reached, her company will have to shift currency costs into prices that still take into account the old exchange rates.

Since the beginning of November, the ruble has lost 7% against the yuan, the same amount against the dollar and about 3% against the euro. The wave of devaluation hit the market after November 21, when the U.S. announced new sanctions against the Russian financial sector, blacklisting five dozen banks, including state-owned Gazprombank. While maintaining access to the SWIFT system and euro-denominated transactions, GPB remained one of the last major banks through which the Russian economy received foreign currency inflows. The expansion of sanctions “put key pressure on the ruble,” notes Maxim Gladkikh, an analyst at TCB Investment Partners.

It is clear that the media works for one side or the other and carries the given narratives to the masses. But ! “No matter how much you say halvah, it doesn't get sweeter in your mouth!” Trying to judge the state of the economy by the media is the ultimate folly. We understand perfectly well that the totalitarian regime of the Kremlin will not publish real indicators, because they need to maintain the status of “winners of all and everything” .... But the real state can be judged by “secondary indicators” - budget deficit, increase in key rates, increase in retirement age, decrease in social budgets, etc... This is basically what we are witnessing. At the same time, I want to make it clear to some who think that the growth of nominal GDP in Russia is an indicator of the growth of econonomics, or its good condition. What you see and count is not the GDP of development, it is the “GDP of war”, and here the big problem for the economy is that although “more gross product” is produced, most of this product does not go to the market and not for profit, but becomes a net loss, because it is the cost of war, where every product produced soon turns to ashes....

Its obvious. Mainstream media caters for each side.
But you need to digest all sides to come to your own conclusion.

I suggest not to shy away from an adverse opinion. It makes you think harder to argue against it 

Ofc there is a push for negative news about Russia. It would be against the narrative to present possible economic growth in Russia despite sanctions from the US and Europe.

What Putin sees in Trump is an article found in the NY times


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/opinion/putin-trump-russia-america.html
Without paywall https://archive.ph/o3z8B

Many here think the same.

I think the the article concludes correctly:

Another round of “successes” of the pariah country, which is “not afraid of sanctions”

Economic “successes” just this week:
- Nabiullina said that almost all resources of the Russian economy have been exhausted. Almost all available resources in the Russian economy have already been used up, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in a speech in the State Duma on Tuesday.
- Ruble weakens amid geopolitical risks, dollar back above 100 p/$
- The Russian Research and Production Enterprise “Aviation and Marine Electronics” failed to purchase domestic microcircuits for the autonomous ship navigation system developed by order of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
- Russians with severe leg and eye diseases will be left without free medicines due to the reform of the medical state guarantees program and cuts in spending on healthcare projects.
- Mortgage issuance in Moscow collapsed by 60% after rates rose to the maximum since the early 2000s.
- Doctors in Russian oncology centers have had their salaries cut by 30%
- Inflation in Russia according to the “Olivier salad index” has reached 70%
- Russian steel exports collapse by 22% due to sanctions

Classic nonsense from Russia
- Magadan region is preparing a batch of reindeer skins to be sent to the front in Ukraine. Governor of the region Sergey Nosov said that they will be used by the Russian military “for camouflage”.
- Russians rush to buy tarot cards after authorities threaten to ban fortune-telling

And about the moral situation in the terrorist country:
- Russians may start writing off credit debts of up to 10 million rubles for being sent to war. - The country's beggars won't get their money back, but at least I can die for Putin's ideas.
- Norwegian neo-Nazi Anders Breivik, sentenced to 21 years in prison for the murder of 77 people, appeared at a court hearing on his application for parole with the letter Z shaved on his head - a symbol of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. RuZZia - what else is there to say ...
- More than a thousand soldiers of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division refused to fight in Ukraine and escaped from the army. Journalists have at their disposal a letter from the division's command to the authorities of Russian regions asking for help in tracking down the evaders.
- Bashir Vedzizhev, a resident of Ingushetia accused of sexual and physical abuse of four-year-old Samira Mutsolgova, who died in the spring of 2023, escaped punishment by going to war with Ukraine instead of prison. “If you kill a child in a country, kill someone else in another country, and you will be clean before the law” - the realities of today's ruZZia.

 

Somehow you do not synchronize “your thoughts” with the Kremlin's Ministry of Lies, sorry, Ministry of Defense - they have already reported on the destruction of virtually all F-16s on the territory of Ukraine. As well as about 150% of all issued Petriot and Hymars complexes
Before you lie - match your lies with the supplier of global lies, because as it is, the delusion of propaganda looks ridiculous and stupid, and with such discrepancies it looks pathetic

Let's finish about “information circus” and let's go back to “stable economy” and “dependence of the whole world on Russia”.
Even yesterday's friends are wiping their feet and cutting ties with toxic russia. And in critical directions for the terrorist's country.
1. Germany has finally “slammed the door” on Russian gas The German authorities have made a decision that guarantees the refusal to supply the country with Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).
2 One of the last EU countries is preparing to give up gas from Russia after 56 years of dependence Russia loses one of its longest-standing gas buyers as Austria closes its gas partnership with Moscow after 56 years of purchases.
And once again I will mention “strong partnerships in BRICS”.
3. India joins the sanctions hit on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project The Indian government has assured that it does not and will not buy any sub-sanctioned goods, adhering to international rights and sanctions
I think this is another success for russia, and I am sure propagandists will present it as “we froze the EU again”

That was my point. The aircrafts that were supposed to be given to Ukraine (and a lot of other types of weapons and equipment such as artillery shells) were sent elsewhere to carry out genocide instead. In other words as I said nearly two years ago the F-16 thing was all a fake propaganda campaign to begin with, then that small number that was supposed to be delivered were shipped elsewhere too!

Maybe we should not focus on the F-16, but rather discuss the “successes” of such notable entities as “the second army of the world”, “unparalleled weaponry”, “hypersonic missiles that will never be fired by Western air defense systems”, “air defense systems that will not miss a single Western strike”, “Armata tank that has no analogues and can reach Berlin on its own”, “Su57- can provide total air superiority without any problems from any Western air defense systems” ? Let's talk about it, shall we? And of course it will all be wrapped up in “stable and growing economy” and “the whole world depends on our hydrocarbons”. And it is especially interesting - why this all, already 3 years can not do anything against “useless AFU”, which in addition “completely destroyed in 2022” ? ?  )))

When you answer, explain why “the strongest economy in the world” and “the best military-industrial complex” together with “the second army in the world” is now begging from losers like Iran and North Korea, begging them for mines to consumables in the form of manpower:) Now that's really interesting

And this is one nice chart for you, if you figure out what it is, I'm looking forward to your interesting comments too