Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim (Read 3045 times)

 

Of course, in a country that is a pathetic copy of Nazi Germany, where ""the special operation is going according to plan", "in 3 weeks "Ukraine will fall" because "the second army of the world, the great Russia, and the whole world will freeze without our gas", there have already been 2 mobilizations, the operation lasts for almost 2 years, and at the front, for lack of "cannon fodder" they take criminals, pedophiles, rapists, murderers, thieves, and with hysterics try to throw the advancing AFU, the fall draft - not for the war in Ukraine ! 

It is very funny to watch you trying, in vain, to deceive yourself )))) And it is very stupid to twist information - I wrote that they will recruit expendables and cannon fodder for the draft, you squeal - "you are lying", give proof of my information, but then make up a pathetic, stupid story that it is not for war 
Even Sakhalin units in Russia have already been transferred from their permanent home and are fighting in Ukraine, the Far East is provided with combat-ready units and reserves at 7-10% of the planned.....

But okay, once again you've been laughed at, let's get back to the successes of the terrorist country And you are going to check again, and you are going to come up with pathetic stupid excuses again

Remember - if Putin says "there will be no mobilization" - it means there will be mobilization, if the General Staff says "no one will go to SVO" - it means they will all die there. Russia is a country built on total lies and deception of the population ! This is also a fact


- The government will "put under the knife" all key health care projects to pay for the war.  The Russian government is sequestering spending on all key medical development projects to pay for the growing "bill" for the war with Ukraine, which by the end of the first two years will exceed 10 trillion rubles, and by the end of the third year may exceed 20 trillion rubles.

In 2024, the federal treasury spending on the national project "Health Care" will be cut by 10% - from 321.3 to 289.9 billion rubles, according to the explanatory note to the budget law, which was submitted to the State Duma on Friday.

- "Everything for the front": Russia will spend in 24y on defense almost a third of the Russian budget.
and this news complements it perfectly:
- Russian authorities have classified 30% of the budget expenditures for the 24th year

Total - about 60% of the budget will be burned in the already lost war ...

- While the authorities are reporting about overcoming the crisis and economic growth, Rosstat recorded that industry has slipped into recession. August was the third month of production decline, if seasonal and calendar factors are eliminated: in June-August it amounted to 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.3%, the statistical service cites data. Experts, depending on their models, also interpret Rosstat's data in such a way that industrial growth has run out of steam and has even been replaced by a decline, if not a recession.


For the rest of you, I recommend reading the article about "Russia's fairy-tale economy and budget" https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/09/28/rezhim-pokazivaet-byudzhetnie-fokusi-no-finansi-raspolzayutsya-pod-gruzom-voennih-trat-a108318.

OMG, it's unbelievable but everything this guy is posting is a lie. Everything. By googling the latest headline you provided (no source mentioned as always) it's easy to find this:


Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-autumn-military-conscription-2023-09-29/

So it turns out it's a routine conscription and the conscripts are not going to Ukraine. Who could have thought? It's a lie again.  

Meanwhile, the support for Ukraine is fading day by day:



As you can see, if people were in charge not the governments, Ukraine wouldn't receive any support at all most probably. In particular, only 24% support the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine!

All is good, Slava Ukraini!  

1. you can easily check any fact I have given you. Which is to be expected, I have never been able to do with your fantasies

2.Judging by the people I saw in the rf army in 2022, in the so-called "second army of the world" - they recruit ONLY mentally distant and moral degenerates there:) I don't understand why you don't defend the "brown Russian world" yet
But... you will soon have a great chance "Russia: Vladimir Putin signed a decree on conscription of 130 thousand people into the Russian army".

There is a huge assumption in your post. You are assuming that the F-16s that Ukraine is supposed to receive are the improved versions. However, from what I can tell this assumption may not be correct since what is being sent is the old versions with little to no improvement.

For example two of the batches that Ukraine may receive in the future are coming from Denmark and Netherlands. Both of these countries have purchased majority of their F-16s in the early 80's and some small numbers in the 90's; meaning most of what they are going to send to Ukraine is the old versions (A and B variants).

As for the lifespan, these old aircrafts have only gone through certain small upgrades for example one of them is what Lockheed-Martin refers to as the "MLU package" which Denmark paid for and only performs routine tests for fatigue, cracks, etc. and fixes some to increase the lifespan. It is like taking your 50 year old car to the shop to increase its lifespan for another decade!

As for the missiles, the only missiles that these countries have purchased (like the ones that RDAF owns) are medium range like the air-to-air missiles such as AM-110 that has a range of 30 miles (48 km), the air-to-ground missiles such as AGM-65 that has a range of 0.6-10 miles (1-16 km).

I couldn't find any reliable information about the radars installed in these aircrafts so I can't comment on that. But considering the rest, specifically the short range of their missiles, I wouldn't count on it to be anything "modern".

The problem is actually much deeper than that ... If you think the problem is Putin, I'm sorry, but you're wrong. The problem is the Nazi regime of Russia and the support of Nazism and terror against the developed world, and civilization in general, by the majority of the Russian population. As a resident of Ukraine - believe me, it is not Putin who kills civilians in Ukraine and destroys cities, it is just ordinary, typical, residents of Russia, who simply do not hate the whole world.

Therefore, there is no need for any signatures, Russia, as the center of today's world destabilization, new Nazism, and terrorism, including economic terrorism, must cease to exist in its current state.  The ideal solution is the division of russia into several independent republics, with temporary external rule, with total demilitarization, and with obligations to pay reparations for many decades, to ALL those who suffered from the soviet and russian power.

Oh, you're still here? You need to defend your motherland in Donbas! I've heard they need more fighters ASAP! Stop trolling from the safety of your home, join your comrades on the front lines. And remember good news for you: now they're accepting retarded people as well!   

Anyways, getting back to the topic: your laughable claims are not supported by anything. No sources, no proof, nothing. Somehow, I'm not surprised. Stop spreading BS and lies. Please.

A bit of positive news from Russia Smiley

- VTB head predicts the dollar at 250 rubles in the transition to the Chinese model of the currency market
Russia's transition to the Chinese model of the currency market with the introduction of two ruble exchange rates will lead to a sharp decline in the domestic currency, said VTB CEO Andrei Kostin. "If we introduce two ruble exchange rates, we will have one at 150 and the other at 250, that's for sure," Kostin said at the International Banking Forum in Sochi.

- "Gazprom" reported a record in the history of gas production collapse. At the end of the first half of the year, Gazprom's production amounted to 179.45 billion cubic meters, the company said in its quarterly report. Compared to the same period of 2022, the volumes fell by 25%, and if compared to the pre-war period - by almost a third: in January-June 2021, Gazprom produced 260.8 billion cubic meters. Never in the three decades of its history has the world's largest gas company reduced production so rapidly.

- Budget expenditures for Putin's maintenance will be increased by 20%. The maintenance of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the next three years will cost Russian taxpayers 74.7 billion rubles. This amount for the "functioning" of the head of state the government has laid down in the draft federal budget for 2024-26, which was submitted to the State Duma on Friday.

- Russia faces a shortage of black bread. Rye of the first, second and third classes will make up about 97% of the entire harvest, but 59% of this volume will be of the third class, which is a poor quality indicator

- Russian farmers are under the threat of mass bankruptcies after the withdrawal of foreign grain traders. Monopolization of the grain market following the departure of foreign players who left Russia after the outbreak of war in Ukraine has brought thousands of farms to the brink of bankruptcy.
Grain traders are buying grain below the cost of production and this is destroying the economy of farms, a member of the State Duma committee for agrarian issues, Sergey Lisovsky, has said.

Not enough reason for us to sit back and think that Russia will yield and give up. For all we know they have allies that would help them fund the war of attrition that they have subjected themselves against Ukraine with. Not to mention the fact that they probably have enough funding to keep at this war 10 times over, so this "implosion" so to speak may affect the economy of Russia, it may even kill the morale of its citizens, but until Putin signs that treaty of peace they won't be stopping this war any time soon.

I'm just hoping no more countries are to intervene against this war besides the conventional support that they give out, once more countries actively join this war this will mean hell for a lot of us and may even escalate to a continental/global war.

Even if the American F-16s were produced in the seventies of the last century, and the Soviet ones, now used in the war by both Russia and Ukraine, were produced in the eighties, in many respects the “outdated” F-16 is superior to modern analogues of Russian, and even more so Ukrainian models .
Unlike the F-16, the MiG-29, for example, has not been developed since the early 1980s and is considered obsolete, while the F-16 has gone through several modifications. Today it has about 15 variants, the last of which are still produced for export.

If we compare endurance, that is, the maximum time after which the aircraft must be written off, since it becomes unsafe to fly, then the first modifications of the F-16 had a service life of 8 thousand hours. This means that with a normal number of flights, their operation is designed for 40 years. Today, the United States is considering the possibility of extending the service life to another 10 or 12 thousand hours, that is, the aircraft will be able to be used until 2048.
The situation with the MiG-29 is completely different. Initially, they had a resource of only 2.5 thousand hours, and later ones - up to 4 thousand. In other words, half as much, that is, the operation of Soviet fighters is designed for a maximum of 20 years.

The MiG-29 has good speed and slightly higher maneuverability, which gives it the ability to turn 180 degrees two seconds earlier, so the MiG-29 is good in close combat, but in fighter aircraft the advantage goes to the one who detects the enemy first.
The best modifications of Soviet (Russian) fighters with their onboard radar can “see” air targets at a range of more than 200 km and carry out air-to-air missile attacks at a range of 75 km. At the same time, the F-16 can engage air targets at a range of about 300 km and carry out attacks at a range twice that of the enemy, without entering the range of enemy fighters and ground-based air defense systems.

But what makes the F-16 even better is its avionics. Modern versions are equipped with the AN/APG-83 radar, which is simultaneously capable of tracking up to 35 targets and allows firing at 8 of them. In this case, targets can be both air and ground; there is no need to switch modes. At the same time, radars even on modernized MiG-29s (in Russian service) track up to 10 targets and allow attacking only one. And they are completely incapable of identifying ground targets. Moreover, the pilot must highlight the air target with radar before it is destroyed.

Russia in theory could ask Cuba how to survive for decades isolated from the world and manage anyway.   The scenario where Russia carries on with its economy regardless is more then viable its just we dont think they will do as well in isolation, of course trade will carry on but in some impaired way.  Even in oil and gas which is their strong point and in demand, Russia lacks proper development & efficiency that would come from involvement internationally to improve all their assets; same is true of many countries like Iraq has failed to invest in its oil fields for decades and they are worse off from that failure in efficiency.    Some commodity projects can take an entire decade to start and establish, this war is destroying their ability to start what is already overdue in addition to other failures the list must be enough to fill a book by now.
  I do think Russia loses far more then it could have gained from any success in this war, I'd say the same of almost any country its better to do plain business then kill and hope for profit from destruction.  Only a singularly small minded person would think otherwise, for an entire nation a giant country growing in size like Russia its definitely true they are far worse off as a people with war , death and waste.  There was no need to conqueror any country when they are already seeing large land gains from the permafrost melting, thats a giant change and they already lack the people, resources, creative companies to make the most of that.

Here the rule “The enemy of my enemy is my friend” can be used, since China, India, and any other country that buys Russian products at low prices will sell them to the countries that need them (Europe) at very high prices. For Russia to sell these products at very low prices could serve its goals for the following reasons:
- It has surplus production that it must dispose of at any price, in addition to the fact that China and India are distant regions, and the cost of transportation is what reduces the price the most.
- It sells these products to its allies who are in an undeclared confrontation with Europe and NATO.
- In the best cases, Europe will be forced to buy Russian products through an intermediary at high prices, which is better than getting nothing.

Sorry for going OT but I wonder what aircraft you consider "obsolete", specially when you compare it with F-16 which you refer to as "latest weapons"!!!
The fighter jets that Ukraine has/had were MiG-29 (introduced on 1983), Su-24 (1974), Su-25 (1981), Su-27 (1984). None of these are considered obsolete specially when compared with F-16 (introduced 1978)! which is older than 90% of what Ukraine had before!

I have to say you're wrong.
Russia has lost any value it may have had. At the moment it is just a raw material appendage of China and India, which using the situation "screwed" Russia, buying oil from it for fancy money, refining it and selling it to the EU for Euros and dollars.

No one in BRICS takes Russia seriously as a world leader, as they understand its toxicity. There are a couple of countries that are "friends" for the money Russia gives them.... But friendship will end as soon as the flow of "gifts" dries up.  Russia is not creating any alliances, at the moment it is trying to destabilize other regions in its usual manner, this is a classic terrorist tactic.

In BRICS and "global south" now the key player is INDIA, and no one mentions Russia as even slightly significant participant.

The only thing russia is valuable for is lake Baikal. it is the largest storehouse of drinking water in the world. But it's starting to take over. China, which will break Russia's back if it doesn't give this resource to China. Moreover, Russia itself has given China an excuse to talk about "historical territories of China", which for the time being, temporarily belong to Russia

It can be considered that the confrontation this time was between equal forces, such that neither party could completely weaken the other. The sanctions failed to dissuade Russia from war despite their significant negative impact on the Russian economy, given that Europe is the most useful market for Russia. But the Western powers did not take into account Russia's vital role in the region and the world. With the expansion of Russian alliances around the world, Europe will isolate itself if it continues its policy of sanctions.
Today, Russia has ten important partners within the BRICS alliance alone, and they are the largest economies distributed across the three largest continents: Asia, Africa, and South America. This will further tighten the pressure on European countries.

In order to understand what the UN is, and how corrupt it is, and how it is a corrupt organization that does not fulfill its goals at all, a little information is in order:
BILD claims to have gained access to a secret letter from UN Secretary-General Guterres to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov.

In it, Guterres offers Russia:
- Bypass sanctions imposed on the Russian agricultural bank;
- Insurance of ships against Ukrainian attacks;
- Assistance in unblocking frozen fertilizer assets;
- Permission to enter European ports with its products.

Reference to the source: https://m.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/guterres-und-lawrow-schmieden-finsteren-plan-un-komplott-soll-aggressor-russland-85328612.bildMobile.html

Now the UN cannot even condemn Russia’s aggressive and piracy actions towards Ukraine, since Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council of this international organization and blocks all decisions it does not like. This is absolutely wrong and needs to be corrected, but it is impossible to correct it since Russia is against any UN decisions directed against it. This is a complete collapse of the UN as a permanent body and does not fulfill its functions.

If Russia uses nuclear weapons, it will not change anything, but the situation will sharply worsen for everyone, including Russia. Countries such as the USA, China, and India have long warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Therefore, if Putin decides to do this, Russia will definitely find himself in complete diplomatic and economic isolation. And the consequences of a nuclear explosion will be very negative both for Russia itself and for Europe, which are difficult to calculate in advance. But this will not change anything for Ukraine; it will still defend itself, but it will be more difficult for Russia to attack it.

The Ukrainian government has already stated that Ukraine will not negotiate with the current Putin regime, since Putin does not comply with any agreements. In addition, Putin perceives any negotiations as a manifestation of the weakness of the other side and all his negotiations boil down to the demand for the actual capitulation of Ukraine and the presentation of territorial claims to it, which is unacceptable for Ukraine.

I'm happy to say that I read everything, but it was challenging to read due to the way you worded it. Your examination of Russia's economic stability following Western sanctions lacks the acuity needed for an informed discussion on global economics

It is oversimplified to claim that Russia's economy is stronger just because China and India have increased their oil purchases from the country. Your assertion that Russia's economic position is better than it was is also untrue; macroeconomic statistics point in a different direction. Turning to Asian markets alone won't be enough to counteract the long-term economic effects of being shut off from Western banking institutions

The ramifications of geopolitical movements are incredibly unexpected and don't always follow the whims of state leaders or even conventional economic theories, as someone who has a significant investment in decentralized systems like Bitcoin, I can assure you.

First of all I apologize for intruding on your conversation, secondly - unfortunately your idea doesn't make sense.
I'll even explain.
This war has no logical explanation. No, there are a lot of monthly changing "official reasons" from the talking heads in the Kremlin. But we all realize that these are attempts to justify their crimes and manipulate their masses of population.
This war has one idea and one goal. The idea is Putin's manic fear of Ukraine as an example of what to do with an idiot president. This is what I mean about 2013-2014 when the people of Ukraine legally deposed the criminal president Yanukovych who was building the same power scheme in Ukraine as had already been built in Russia. And Putin's goal is the same - to DESTROY Ukraine so that the Kremlin slaves will always forget about it.
Plus he has played the game and decided that he is GOD on earth and can do whatever he wants and nothing will happen to him for it. You may remember Moldova, Azerbaijan, Ichkeria, Georgia. Until then, the whole world sat by and watched in silence...
And most importantly, if you look at the treaties and commitments that Russia has signed from 2000 to today - most of them, Russia just... FORGOT and violated them. I will just remind you of RUSSIA's obligations under the Budapest Memorandum, as well as the many interstate treaties between Ukraine and Russia "on friendship and good-neighborliness" and "on respect, acceptance of borders and independence" - which Russia also forgot and ignored in 2014.
Who to AGREE with? With a potential liar ? And one whose word is worthless ?

Russia's war is artificial because when the war started the West thought they had won and Russia would not be able to take any major steps forward because of their various They were overjoyed that Russia wouldn't catch up with them etc. but they didn't know that they shot themselves in the foot because of the economic condition of Russia since the start of the war Various countries have imposed restrictions on them, as a result of which their production has not stopped and the annual growth rate of production etc. has increased much more. Their economic condition is better than before Currently, their economic status is above about 64% which was lower earlier
After the start of the war in Russia, the European countries that had oil markets were not buying oil due to the embargo on the state, which they thought would make them unable to sell oil to Russia.But Russia's oil sales have increased since their sanctions because China and India, Russia's biggest oil buyers, are now buying several times more oil than they used to As a result of the purchase, Russia's economy is getting stronger
Economists who claim that Russia's exports have decreased as a result of the war, more than half of them are economists in the Western world, I do not think are correct because Russia's current economic situation is on It is a special day for Russia because of the good war, it has deepened its relations with many countries that were not possible before, especially with the region.European countries tried and failed to shut down the pipelines with which Russia used to export oil to various countries.Many countries, including Germany, Poland, could not stop pipelines such as Nord Steam One, Nord Steam Two, etc.Russia's economic situation is not so weak that a few states can bring them down with sanctions, they will never stand up and continue to infuriate Russia and escalate the war is helping and Russia is attacking harder and showing its power which sees the western world in misery, and they will be left wondering what to do if not their economic Such doctrines are expressed.Any war helps change a country either for better or for worse In the case of Russia, there is a bright side We may see more sanctions ahead, but I don't see that as an end to the war because the Russian president said yesterday that the West is unethically putting forward various proposals that It is possible for Russia to accept
Finally I can say that the Russian economy will not suffer from the loss of exports because the disaster will not only happen to Russia but also to the Western world and the damage will be long-term The underdeveloped and developing countries will suffer the most, so it is most important to stop the war and if Russia's exports return to normal with all countries, the wheels of the world economy will continue to spin beautifully It is possible to recover from the disaster that has been caused by Covid-19.

The rules and regulations are ours to establish. We can modify them if things need to be fixed. Suppose the US and EU do not use sanctions to restrain Russia's rise. Russia will quickly level Ukraine. I don't know what this campaign means. But Russia is destroying Ukraine and its innocent people. It is affecting the global economy. Putin also announced the withdrawal of Russia from the New START Treaty. What do you think if Russia used nuclear weapons?
Russia and Ukraine should sit at the negotiating table to make things better.