Topic: Russia's economy is 'imploding' on export decline, economists claim (Read 3697 times)

What Putin sees in Trump is an article found in the NY times


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/19/opinion/putin-trump-russia-america.html
Without paywall https://archive.ph/o3z8B

Many here think the same.

I think the the article concludes correctly:

Another round of “successes” of the pariah country, which is “not afraid of sanctions”

Economic “successes” just this week:
- Nabiullina said that almost all resources of the Russian economy have been exhausted. Almost all available resources in the Russian economy have already been used up, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said in a speech in the State Duma on Tuesday.
- Ruble weakens amid geopolitical risks, dollar back above 100 p/$
- The Russian Research and Production Enterprise “Aviation and Marine Electronics” failed to purchase domestic microcircuits for the autonomous ship navigation system developed by order of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
- Russians with severe leg and eye diseases will be left without free medicines due to the reform of the medical state guarantees program and cuts in spending on healthcare projects.
- Mortgage issuance in Moscow collapsed by 60% after rates rose to the maximum since the early 2000s.
- Doctors in Russian oncology centers have had their salaries cut by 30%
- Inflation in Russia according to the “Olivier salad index” has reached 70%
- Russian steel exports collapse by 22% due to sanctions

Classic nonsense from Russia
- Magadan region is preparing a batch of reindeer skins to be sent to the front in Ukraine. Governor of the region Sergey Nosov said that they will be used by the Russian military “for camouflage”.
- Russians rush to buy tarot cards after authorities threaten to ban fortune-telling

And about the moral situation in the terrorist country:
- Russians may start writing off credit debts of up to 10 million rubles for being sent to war. - The country's beggars won't get their money back, but at least I can die for Putin's ideas.
- Norwegian neo-Nazi Anders Breivik, sentenced to 21 years in prison for the murder of 77 people, appeared at a court hearing on his application for parole with the letter Z shaved on his head - a symbol of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. RuZZia - what else is there to say ...
- More than a thousand soldiers of the 20th Guards Motorized Rifle Division refused to fight in Ukraine and escaped from the army. Journalists have at their disposal a letter from the division's command to the authorities of Russian regions asking for help in tracking down the evaders.
- Bashir Vedzizhev, a resident of Ingushetia accused of sexual and physical abuse of four-year-old Samira Mutsolgova, who died in the spring of 2023, escaped punishment by going to war with Ukraine instead of prison. “If you kill a child in a country, kill someone else in another country, and you will be clean before the law” - the realities of today's ruZZia.

 

Somehow you do not synchronize “your thoughts” with the Kremlin's Ministry of Lies, sorry, Ministry of Defense - they have already reported on the destruction of virtually all F-16s on the territory of Ukraine. As well as about 150% of all issued Petriot and Hymars complexes
Before you lie - match your lies with the supplier of global lies, because as it is, the delusion of propaganda looks ridiculous and stupid, and with such discrepancies it looks pathetic

Let's finish about “information circus” and let's go back to “stable economy” and “dependence of the whole world on Russia”.
Even yesterday's friends are wiping their feet and cutting ties with toxic russia. And in critical directions for the terrorist's country.
1. Germany has finally “slammed the door” on Russian gas The German authorities have made a decision that guarantees the refusal to supply the country with Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).
2 One of the last EU countries is preparing to give up gas from Russia after 56 years of dependence Russia loses one of its longest-standing gas buyers as Austria closes its gas partnership with Moscow after 56 years of purchases.
And once again I will mention “strong partnerships in BRICS”.
3. India joins the sanctions hit on Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project The Indian government has assured that it does not and will not buy any sub-sanctioned goods, adhering to international rights and sanctions
I think this is another success for russia, and I am sure propagandists will present it as “we froze the EU again”

That was my point. The aircrafts that were supposed to be given to Ukraine (and a lot of other types of weapons and equipment such as artillery shells) were sent elsewhere to carry out genocide instead. In other words as I said nearly two years ago the F-16 thing was all a fake propaganda campaign to begin with, then that small number that was supposed to be delivered were shipped elsewhere too!

Maybe we should not focus on the F-16, but rather discuss the “successes” of such notable entities as “the second army of the world”, “unparalleled weaponry”, “hypersonic missiles that will never be fired by Western air defense systems”, “air defense systems that will not miss a single Western strike”, “Armata tank that has no analogues and can reach Berlin on its own”, “Su57- can provide total air superiority without any problems from any Western air defense systems” ? Let's talk about it, shall we? And of course it will all be wrapped up in “stable and growing economy” and “the whole world depends on our hydrocarbons”. And it is especially interesting - why this all, already 3 years can not do anything against “useless AFU”, which in addition “completely destroyed in 2022” ? ?  )))

When you answer, explain why “the strongest economy in the world” and “the best military-industrial complex” together with “the second army in the world” is now begging from losers like Iran and North Korea, begging them for mines to consumables in the form of manpower:) Now that's really interesting

And this is one nice chart for you, if you figure out what it is, I'm looking forward to your interesting comments too

Ukraine does not have that many, and the 1st of Ukraine's pilots just graduated in May.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/first-ukrainian-pilots-graduate-us-f-16-training/

We talked about F-16 jets in this topic a lot and yet we have not seen anything significant coming out from them to have changed anything on the battlefield or even being used. Apart from a handful of footage at certain times months ago that were made purely for propaganda purposes, they are nowhere to be seen.

Of course part of the reason is the fact that as the Israeli terrorists keep losing their aircrafts (at least 30+ F-35 jets were destroyed here), the US regime keeps trying to replace them with what they were supposed to send to Ukraine... just like all other ammunition that is being redirected to this terrorist organization to carry out genocide.

Good Luck Ukraine I guess, there are children in Gaza that the Israeli terrorists need to kill so no weapons for you... 🤦

In addition to the fact that the Russian economy is losing a lot due to the sanctions imposed for unleashing an aggressive war with Ukraine, Putin, due to his habit of solving all issues with blackmail and brute force, is also significantly worsening Russia's already hopeless situation with his reckless actions. From the first days of the attack on Ukraine, Putin began to threaten Europe that he would stop oil and gas supplies if European countries tried to help Ukraine and prevent Russia from seizing Ukraine. This led to the opposite effect. In order to put an end to such blackmail once and for all, Europe itself refused to supply Russia with carbohydrates and Russia, thus, if not forever, then for a long time lost the European market and suffered billions in losses.

According to various sources, by 2024 Russia could lose from $100 to $200 billion on export trade restrictions, but Putin, apparently, is not satisfied with this. Recently, Putin proposed considering the possibility of limiting supplies of strategic Russian raw materials to foreign markets, including uranium, titanium and nickel. https://www.dialog.ua/business/301394_1726069313

However, such a step will deal another blow to the Russian economy, since it will further limit the Russian budget's income from exports. The Kremlin itself proposes to introduce exactly the same sanctions against its economy. Experts write that the West will applaud Putin standing for such actions.

Once again, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the Istanbul Agreement was not signed by either the Ukrainian or Russian side. Otherwise, Putin would now be saying that Ukraine, having signed the agreement, does not fulfill its terms. There were certain developments, the parties put forward their demands, approached mutual understanding in some minor issues, but in significant issues they remained in their positions.

On June 17, Putin received representatives of seven African countries in St. Petersburg and for the first time showed a draft of a possible peace agreement with the Ukrainian side called "an agreement on permanent neutrality and security guarantees for Ukraine", which contained 18 articles with an appendix on the maximum number of Ukrainian Armed Forces and weapons. At this meeting, Putin casually showed it to the cameras, but it is clearly visible that there are no signatures there.
https://focus.ua/politics/573644-stambulskiy-dogovor-kakoy-mir-dlya-ukrainy-pytaetsya-navyazat-putin

A total of four face-to-face meetings of these agreements in preparation took place - three in Belarus and the last one on March 29 in Istanbul. At the fourth meeting, a final communiqué was agreed upon. At the same time, Ukraine proposed concluding a new international treaty with the signatures of the permanent members of the UN Security Council - France, the USA, Great Britain, Russia, Turkey, Germany, Canada, Poland and Israel. Russia had already signed the Budapest Memorandum with Ukraine on providing Ukraine with security guarantees in exchange for Ukraine's renunciation of the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal, but Russia treacherously violated it in 2014.

As for the war itself, it is not over yet and it is not yet known under what conditions it will end. Now it is entering a very interesting stage, when Russia is running out of people willing to die for big money in Ukraine and the question of the need to declare a mobilization of the unprepared population arises. There may be many unpleasant fatal surprises for Russia itself.

If Russia had not attacked Ukraine, the Ukrainians would not have had to defend themselves and suffer huge mutual losses. According to various estimates, from 300 to 600 thousand Russian servicemen would have remained alive or would not have been crippled, Russia would not have lost its main military potential, its economy would not have been strangled by international sanctions and now Putin would not have to choose between bad and very bad conditions for ending this idiotic war.

From what I've read about the Istanbul Communiqué, it looked the exact opposite and it benefited Ukraine greatly, specially when compared to the alternative! In fact that is exactly whey the Ukrainian negotiators agreed to it and signed the documents back then.

If Zionist Zenesky hadn't listened to his masters orders and hadn't torn apart the agreement that Ukraine had signed:
1. Russia would have pulled out of Ukraine and the 20% that they now own and will never give up would have come back to Ukraine
2. Nearly half of the population of Ukraine (18 to 20 million) wouldn't have been forced to escape the country and flood Europe causing a lot of problems in Europe
3. All the Ukrainian infrastructure that were destroyed over the past 3 years would have been intact!
4. Countless youngsters wouldn't have been arrested in the middle of streets to be forced to go to the front line and die defending against Russia
...

Putin almost always hypocritically stated that Russia is always open to negotiations. But in fact, the preconditions for negotiations were such that this would mean the capitulation of Ukraine. Therefore, such a willingness to accept the capitulation of Ukraine did not suit the people of Ukraine and its military-political leadership.

The so-called Istanbul Agreement, which was negotiated in February-April 2022, was not actually beneficial to Ukraine, because it was imposed on Ukraine under the threat of continued attacks by Russian troops invading Ukraine. Russia demanded recognition of the occupied Crimea and the Donbass region, the non-aligned status of Ukraine, a significant reduction in the Ukrainian army and its weapons, recognition of Russian as a second state language, the lifting of sanctions, the withdrawal of claims against Russia in international courts and other desires of Putin. The parties never came to an agreement, much remained unresolved, some issues were left for consideration by the heads of state at a personal meeting. And most importantly, Russia did not give any guarantees that it would not attack Ukraine again. This meant that at any time Russia could accuse Ukraine of not fulfilling the terms of the agreement and, having prepared, begin the next stage of military aggression.

"Putin changed his tone" is not a solid reasoning for your speculation though. You have to bring up more solid economic facts than that. Otherwise it is obvious nobody with half a brain would wants to be in a war that costs a lot of money, troops and equipment, etc. for ever even if they have been winning so far.

That's not to mention Russia was talking about negotiations before they even started the invasion! They also negotiated shortly after they invaded and even come to an agreement, a favorable agreement for Ukraine (which US prevented from succeeding).
So in that front I see no changes hence I reject your reasoning. It is not a valid reason to conclude that the Russian economy is imploding or they can't continue past 2024.

---

Now let me help you with some valid arguments you could have made LOL (that's right I am countering myself instead of you)

Russian economy is showing healthy stats on paper. For example the GDP is growing and the forecasts are predicting more growth in the future. But this is all "on paper" as I said. Under the hood this is not a healthy economy because the way they could keep their economy alive (prevent it from imploding as those stupid economists predicted 3 years ago) was to absorb all the unemployed people into other industries, mainly the military industry. The military industry thrives as the war rages on and there is demand for weapons and equipment this industry needs to produce more of.
That hurts all other industries and the economy as a whole and most importantly it can not be sustained in long term.

This is the type of economic fact you can use to support your claims.

Now the reason why I still don't consider that enough reason to claim "Russian economy is imploding" is because what they did is a temporary thing to get them over the initial shock to the economy and the unemployment. And it is not all they've been doing.
3 years ago I said "a big shuffle is going on". Economic partners has been changing. For example the ultra cheap Russian gas that used to go to Germany so that German economy could thrive is now going to India, China and elsewhere so that their economies can thrive instead. It takes time to find that replacement but Russia is receiving the same amount of revenue more or less!
Russians have also been very active finding other economic partners. Need I remind you of BRICS? The same BRICS that currently over a hundred countries are desperate to join...

Although I don't want to predict anything but all these efforts are neutralizing the negative effects of other things on Russian economy. This is why their economy didn't "implode" 2 years ago and it is why the chances of it imploding a year from now is very small.

This is hilarious I must say and looking at the economic strength of the Russian I think they are doing well in this regards but they tend not to buy into any orders cause they think they are better of with what they got clearly did they know they ought to seek for help from other countries so as not to jeopardize their economy in the long run.

And this is where I see this coming from and I know what have being given the Russians high hopes even before the war started,it's because they have invested more on their arms and ammunition and with time they can have something out of it but mind you it isn't for so long tho due to the war between Ukraine and Russia they've been unable to balance their economy which is because of the crisis from the war and at some point the Russian won't be able to tackle thier economic downfall but right now.

The fact that Putin feels the tragic nature of the situation for him on the Ukrainian front can be clearly seen in his statements about peace negotiations with Ukraine, especially after the main line of the Russian offensive - Pokrovsk - has recently stalled.

As is known, before the Swiss peace summit, Putin publicly issued an ultimatum: Ukraine must give up four regions - Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, and within the administrative borders, and not along the front line. At the same time, the opinion was expressed that if Ukraine does not agree to fulfill them, then in the future the preliminary conditions for negotiations will only become tougher.

After the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the Kursk region of Russia and began to control several thousand square kilometers of Russian territory, the Kremlin announced that there can be no negotiations with Ukraine until the "bandits" leave Russian territory.

Now Putin has suddenly changed his tune.
Thus, at the annual Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, which took place on September 3-6, Putin again spoke about peace with Ukraine, and in a format much more acceptable to Ukraine.
"Are we ready to negotiate with them (Ukraine)? We have never refused this, but not on the basis of some ephemeral demands, but on the basis of those documents that were agreed upon and actually initialed in Istanbul," Putin said.
https://news.zerkalo.io/world/77585.html
Thus, Putin himself admitted that his previous ultimatums to Ukraine were ephemeral.

Even Russian propagandist, regular participant in Russian political talk shows Yakov Kedmi drew attention to this. Putin is begging for negotiations with Ukraine, this is the position of the weak, he said.
https://www.dialog.ua/russia/301157_1725697235/amp

Of course, the opinion of a military expert like you is much appreciated    Do you even know how to load the magazine of an automatic rifle ?

And what attack on Kursk are you talking about ? It's an ordinary civil war there. There are rebels against the Kremlin junta !  We are just helping the Ukrainian-speaking population of the Kursk People's Republic. But we are not there!  And the Kursk People's Republic was attacked by Kremlin and Iranian terrorists, and all this on orders from North Korea, under which Russia and Putin lay down !

And tell me about the F-16, what did I say wrong ? You know, like “don't understand anything” ? Your opinion is very important for me, I am very much waiting for explanations from an “expert” 

And please - here, in front of everyone, prove that I am a Zionist and that Israel is a terrorist organization. Or just admit that you are a common victim of Russian stupid propaganda

You have to prove it with arguments, references to international documents, explaining the meaning of all words. Ok, or as always you will start talking nonsense and primitive insults ?


PS Old F-16 is called old F-16 by your favorite Kremlin propagandists )

There is a famous saying that goes "it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal".

Russia is the neighbor. People of Ukraine and Russia share a lot culture, history, language, etc. that predates the invention of the colony known as USA by hundreds of years. Not to mention that what you refer to as "influence" is not influence at all. It is full control. At this point that control is so deep that Ukraine acts as a US proxy.

What is the source of these forecasts? The same source as what OP shared saying by the end of 2022 Russian economy would implode?

They were capable of giving Ukraine hundreds of F-16 aircrafts 3 years ago. They are obsolete for NATO members and they've been trying to replace them. They also have facilities to build, repair and manufacture spare parts for these things inside Europe which makes it a lot easier to hand them over to Ukraine.

But as I've said many times before, they are not helping Ukraine win a war against an invader. They are using Ukraine to fight a competitor to weaken it. If this war had ended 3 years ago (like through the Istanbul peace treaty that US didn't allow to be agreed upon) it would not have damaged Russia like this.

This means they will give Ukraine only enough to keep it in the war. Not letting it lose OR win. They will definitely give Ukraine more F-16 aircrafts in the future specially now that Ukraine has lost so many troops and vital equipment in the failed Kursk invasion and Russia has advanced a lot more in other fronts.

If Russian is a foreign language, what does that make English?!

Everything is not as clear as it seems at first glance. It is no secret that Ukraine itself, without the support of Europe and the United States, would not have been able to withstand fighting for two and a half years against the military aggression of such a large state as Russia. And then in almost every populated area of Ukraine, what happened in the temporarily occupied Bucha near Kiev, where civilian corpses lay in basements and right on the streets, would have happened. Even at the cost of great losses, Ukraine will defend its freedom and independence from Russia. Will it fall under the influence of the United States? Perhaps, but the influence of the United States on Ukraine is much preferable to the influence of a wild and cruel Russia.

Meanwhile, the war has been going on for the third year of economic exhaustion, not in the format of "Ukraine versus Russia", but in the format of "the West versus Russia", and Russia is clearly no longer able to withstand such a confrontation. According to economists' forecasts, already at the beginning of 2025, Russia will not be able to fully continue the war and will be forced to make big concessions just to end it. We already see that Putin changes the preconditions for peace talks with Ukraine every few days in favor of constant and ever greater concessions. If until recently it was the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from four regions of Ukraine, now this is no longer mentioned, just as it is not mentioned that after the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the Kursk region, the Kremlin declared that there would be no negotiations until the "bandits" left the Kursk region. We are already talking about the Istanbul agreements (as we see, even at this forum), which Ukraine did not agree to in the first months of the war as not entirely beneficial for it and because of Ukraine's successes at the front.

The first six F-16 aircraft have arrived in Ukraine. But this is only the first batch. By the end of the year there should be 20 of them, and then even more. But it is not even about their quantity, although this is also of great importance. The main thing is that Ukraine is completely switching over to NATO armament. And soon Ukraine will have its own pilot and technician instructors for these aircraft, as well as for other NATO military equipment. And given that in Ukraine one foreign language - Russian - should soon be replaced by the mass study of another foreign language - English, the problem of the language barrier will disappear completely.

Russia has spent eight years and three trillion rubles on import substitution...
Results: according to the Minister of Economy, “import substitution turned out to be... unprofitable and expensive. Import substitution works only if there is access to foreign markets, where goods produced in the country will be sold. Production of small volumes of goods for the domestic market generates expensive non-competitive products that will not be bought by local consumers”. In general - expected
What import substitution, if the country is an international pariah, technologically backward, still living mostly on what was created in the USSR 

Time proves everything...
https://www.wsj.com/world/ukrainian-f-16-is-destroyed-in-crash-4f6d66f6

It's a good time to come up with a complete summary of what we discussed in this topic regarding F-16 fighter jets Ukraine were supposed to receive. Over the past year I've speculated about them and how they were too "hyped up" in the Western media and with recent information that has surfaced, specially this recent WSJ article we can see that all the following statements I've made over the past year were accurate.

It starts from my first statement to @Ozero that compared to the Eastern warplanes Ukraine already had, the F-16 is not a good addition and if anything is to be considered obsolete, it is not the Ukraine's existing airforce, it is what they are being given. We've already seen that Ukraine is performing far better with its Mig-29 and Su-27 specially as we saw in the Kursk invasion.

Time answers another question as well. The number was 6. Only 6. They did not have any meaningful impact. Even if they were the most modern aircraft with the most trained pilots, 6 of them would not have made a meaningful difference.

In other words this was not too little too late, it is too nothing too late.

The article proves at least one of these statements as well.
Ukraine is already losing those F-16 fighter jets. Like the case explained in the WSJ article. If it were shot down by a Russia air-defense it proves what I said about Russian air-superiority or rather air-dominance.

But also if the Americans are telling the truth and the Ukrainian pilot has actually crashed the plane it proves the other thing I said. The training they received (abroad, with language barrier on a Western system they are not familiar or comfortable with) is not at all enough to make the aircrafts they received useful.

---

Let's get back to topic. This whole F-16 talk may seem off topic but it is actually very on-topic. Why didn't the US regime give Ukraine more than 6 of these jets? Why is the regime giving them very little ammunition as well? Why is the regime dragging this conflict on and prohibiting Ukraine from negotiating?

Read the title of the topic another time. That's the US regime's goal. A war of attrition against Russia and in order to "implode Russia", the US regime has to destroy Ukraine first. This is why so little is being given to them to only keep them in this conflict without letting them being defeated and at the same time without allowing them to gain any victory over Russia! At the same time prohibiting any peace negotiations that could lead to a cease fire.

This is why the Istanbul peace treaty that Ukraine and Russia came up with only a month into the conflict that would have ended all the past 3 years' death and destruction right then and there, had to be rejected. A peace treaty that US regime ordered to be rejected through their proxy, Boris Johnson.

Is Russian economy "imploding" or as OP quoted from the American mouthpiece "The economy is imploding. We forecast a GDP collapse of -30% by end-2022". Did that happen? I don't see it. The 2022 GDP growth was -2.1 and +3.6 for 2023 according to the WorldBank. Compared to the bigger negative growths Russia has had like the -7.8 in 2009, this seems like nothing.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2023&locations=RU&start=1990&view=chart
Unfortunately this means US regime will not allow this conflict to end until either they reach their goal and Russian economy "implodes" or there is nothing left of Ukraine.

You don't change a bit - you never give answers to questions, you take words out of context, you stick your usual labels on people who can reasonably convey their thoughts and position

And this is written by a supporter of international terrorism, a liar, a manipulator and a man raised on cheap propaganda

F-16s are directly related: they are used against the Kremlin junta, which unleashed the civil war in the Kursk People's Republic. Ukraine is helping the citizens of Kursk People's Republic to defend their independence and the right to speak the Ukrainian language - for which they are being persecuted by the Kremlin terrorists.

Israel, like Ukraine, is a victim of terrorist aggression.

Try to refute a single word ?