Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 55.

sompitonov

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Quote from: inthelongrun on October 20, 2023, 06:47:25 AM

Quote from: sompitonov on October 20, 2023, 04:16:43 AM

...
Finally, the day of the playoffs has arrived, I'm already tired of waiting for it. Today the Dota 2 celebration will continue, cheers

Yeah, finally the long rest is over. But I liked the long rest since I lost most of my bets and needed some break as well. Cheesy

Very exciting games later as we start with the upper bracket. I'll be betting on Team Spirit and Liquid. Team Spirit is the only team that hasn't lost a map while Liquid only lost a single map during the group stage.

The season favorites Gaimin Gladiators and BetBoom are already in the lower bracket. So I am betting on them as well to survive their first series of games. Hopefully, I'm winning this time.

Of course, Team Spirit are monsters, they destroy everyone in their path. But this may ever end, although it is very unlikely that at TI12. Remember Tundra, and how nonce turned them around, although absolutely no one expected it. I am one of the few skeptics and I think that something similar can happen to them.

I definitely wouldn’t bet on Team Spirit because the odds for their victory are very small. Even if they continue to demolish everyone, we will gain very little. Ultimately, I prefer betting with large odds rather than small odds. Because a lot of things happen TI12 that we don’t expect at all.

inthelongrun

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Quote from: sompitonov on October 20, 2023, 04:16:43 AM

...
Finally, the day of the playoffs has arrived, I'm already tired of waiting for it. Today the Dota 2 celebration will continue, cheers

Yeah, finally the long rest is over. But I liked the long rest since I lost most of my bets and needed some break as well. Cheesy

Very exciting games later as we start with the upper bracket. I'll be betting on Team Spirit and Liquid. Team Spirit is the only team that hasn't lost a map while Liquid only lost a single map during the group stage.

The season favorites Gaimin Gladiators and BetBoom are already in the lower bracket. So I am betting on them as well to survive their first series of games. Hopefully, I'm winning this time.

ILuckyGuyI

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Quote from: emrecemsan on October 19, 2023, 02:40:17 PM

Have you been watching the Worlds in League of Legends? The main tournament started today and there were really amazing games.

There isn't group stage anymore you know. Swiss Round system is being used and for now the series are BO1. Today we didn't see much surprise. Actually G2's winning over DK might be considered as the only doubted one. G2 can be a really dangerous opponent for Asian teams in BO1 series. I wonder whether we can see the same effort against WeiboGaming as well tomorrow.

Especially these series are going to be quite exciting to watch and my favourites are like this:

Gen.G v T1
G2 v WeiboGaming
JDG v BLG
DK v KT

Yeah I have followed the Worlds until now and we are in the time period of these games right now. Grin

Gen.G played really strongly against T1. Chovy is just not making mistakes easily. Despite falling behind Faker in early game he made huge progress in mid-game. His starting behind was due to champ difference also of course as it was Akali vs Orianna.

Now the G2 - WBG game is about to start. I see a Draven ban against Hans Sama which is a smart ban. Grin

Because he is really dominating with Draven most of the time. I can give the DK game as an example for that also.

I'm not sure about G2 to win another BO1. WBG are really playing solid and I think they can win here.

vennali

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Quote from: boltz on October 19, 2023, 06:17:27 AM

Man , I've played yesterday 2 games on Dota and I had Ogre on mid in one of them ...guess how that turned up ?

) he ended up getting fat with around 3.8k hp , full 6 items and more than this , it was Crusader 5 rank

) so I think it's just the hero who is broken once you have a good start because I doubt the skills of that guy were over the roof right ? Also , another broken hero that we could make a surprise is Wind Range so careful when you see this hero being picked. Grin

With the change to midas, Ogre does look pretty broken. The midas usage efficiency is off the charts. Heart seems to be the item of choice. Just get super tanky and just soldier on..nobody can stop you. Wind ranger or the other hand? naah, not broken. It's just okay to be honest. Maybe in crusader it maybe broken as people don't usually buy detection for teamfights and WR aghs, there's no stopping her.

CS 2, IEM Sidney: Ence getting absolutely battered by Faze. Lost map 1 of Nuke handily and map 2, which was Ence's own pick of Anubis, they are losing 0-9. can't believe Ence is ranked 2 in the world. Doesn't look even close to that. Being game to 13 rounds, I don't see a way back for Ence here.

sompitonov

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A new treasure Crimson Witness 2023, has been released, but will only be available to TI12 visitors. An interesting decision, of course, it won't affect the TI12 prize pool due to the fact that the coverage of people is extremely small. I would like the treasury to be made available to everyone who has a battle pass much earlier.

9Pandas was fined for being late for makeup, and now they have lost 110 seconds of bonus time. I'll laugh if it doesn't affect their pick and they end up winning the game. I think they have drafts and are well prepared, so this won't cause them much damage.

Finally, the day of the playoffs has arrived, I'm already tired of waiting for it. Today the Dota 2 celebration will continue, cheers

boyptc

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Quote from: boltz on October 19, 2023, 06:17:27 AM

Man , I've played yesterday 2 games on Dota and I had Ogre on mid in one of them ...guess how that turned up ?

) he ended up getting fat with around 3.8k hp , full 6 items and more than this , it was Crusader 5 rank

) so I think it's just the hero who is broken once you have a good start because I doubt the skills of that guy were over the roof right ?

Hero is really broken and we might see a nerf after that and Volvo is likely to remove that dumb luck skill because it's overpowered. I've been using that hero in pubs and ranked up with it by just playing position 5.

Whether it's on the mid, or goes into a support role. It's an ideal hero that you'll just play and enjoy and I think that's what team are seeing it and being tanky is certainly a huge plus on it.

Quote from: boltz on October 19, 2023, 06:17:27 AM

Also , another broken hero that we could make a surprise is Wind Range so careful when you see this hero being picked. Grin

What's with WR? Any reason why you think that it's a broken and OP hero? Because for the past games, we don't see that much matches that teams picked it.

emrecemsan

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Have you been watching the Worlds in League of Legends? The main tournament started today and there were really amazing games.

There isn't group stage anymore you know. Swiss Round system is being used and for now the series are BO1. Today we didn't see much surprise. Actually G2's winning over DK might be considered as the only doubted one. G2 can be a really dangerous opponent for Asian teams in BO1 series. I wonder whether we can see the same effort against WeiboGaming as well tomorrow.

Especially these series are going to be quite exciting to watch and my favourites are like this:

Gen.G v T1
G2 v WeiboGaming
JDG v BLG
DK v KT

sompitonov

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Quote from: boltz on October 19, 2023, 06:17:27 AM

Man , I've played yesterday 2 games on Dota and I had Ogre on mid in one of them ...guess how that turned up ?

) he ended up getting fat with around 3.8k hp , full 6 items and more than this , it was Crusader 5 rank

) so I think it's just the hero who is broken once you have a good start because I doubt the skills of that guy were over the roof right ? Also , another broken hero that we could make a surprise is Wind Range so careful when you see this hero being picked. Grin

This week I am observing that at the Crusader rating there is a very large Ogre Magi pick rate and a good win rate of 52.68%. It’s interesting here that with each rank the pick rate gradually drops and the win rate also, and at the highest rank is 8.66% and winrate ... omg 47.57%.
Despite these statistics with a large sample, I wouldn't project this to TI12. I would even dare to say that there is simply nothing predictable there.

As for me, I play Dota 2 several games a day, but among the heroes I play for there are no Ogre Magi, but my friend recently picked him and something similar to what you described happened. Our rating is the same as yours.

arallmuus

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Quote from: ralle14 on October 17, 2023, 07:52:24 PM

It's too early to say when they only surprised us with that one upset so far, and Azure Ray is still a solid team with veteran players who've been to TI several times.

Thats probably Nouns Trump card that they used to survive the seeding rounds and get the upper bracket well considering that its almost a week break for all the teams, Im pretty sure by now there has been alot of teams that been analyzing how Nouns won against Tundra so this type of upsets probably wont happen again. Aside from that, all teams will get pretty serious on the playoff especially lower brackets because there isnt 2nd chance for them if they lose

Azure Ray on the other hands is pretty impressive, I kinda thought that they will flop like some of the SA / SEA region teams but surprisingly they did pretty well

boltz

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Man , I've played yesterday 2 games on Dota and I had Ogre on mid in one of them ...guess how that turned up ?

) he ended up getting fat with around 3.8k hp , full 6 items and more than this , it was Crusader 5 rank

) so I think it's just the hero who is broken once you have a good start because I doubt the skills of that guy were over the roof right ? Also , another broken hero that we could make a surprise is Wind Range so careful when you see this hero being picked. Grin

passwordnow

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Quote from: sompitonov on October 18, 2023, 04:17:12 AM

Quote from: passwordnow on October 17, 2023, 02:26:50 PM

Quote from: sompitonov on October 17, 2023, 07:14:17 AM

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how Tundra will play in the lower bracket, especially if they pick Witch Doctor against them, or now they will ban him in every game? Wink

There will be no room for error.

I feel that it looks like it was nothing before but the actual impact of that Witch Doctor from the match they had with nouns could probably put trauma to them. Maybe they'll use that hero against Entity or much better that they should ban it as Gabbi could use that hero against them.

In any case, I think that we will see Witch Doctor with other teams. During these 5 days of break, teams will study its use in the current patch better. At the moment, he was only picked once in TI12 in that game. Ogre Magi pikced 6 times, and won 4 times. In general, I wanted to see such heroes as Ogre Magi, Witch Doctor, Spectre much more as the grand final approached. Among other heroes, Spectra stands out in terms of win rate with 80%. I'm looking forward to seeing what the teams have prepared during this time.

We might see other teams copying what Gunnar did with Ogre Magi which he made it won on the mid-lane. Actually, it's a good hero, tanky, and can stand every clash without the possibility of being dead quickly unlike other squishy heroes that only need to release their skills before being dead. The multicast stun can have a huge impact on one hero they're focused on firing. An offlane witch doctor could be seen again and IIRC, it was also done by Team Liquid in some tournaments in the past with the tandem of IO. It was actually a good lineup. Well, at this stage of the TI, we will definitely see the secret and best heroes that most teams have been hiding and will only be used at these crucial times. They have to survive every match up that they will do in order for them to proceed to the next stage, all they have to do is to do all that they can, use their best heroes and win their matches with the strategies that they have been packing for this week. And also, counter every best heroes of the opposing team that they have, do less error so there won't be any throwing moments.

sompitonov

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Quote from: passwordnow on October 17, 2023, 02:26:50 PM

Quote from: sompitonov on October 17, 2023, 07:14:17 AM

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how Tundra will play in the lower bracket, especially if they pick Witch Doctor against them, or now they will ban him in every game? Wink

There will be no room for error.

I feel that it looks like it was nothing before but the actual impact of that Witch Doctor from the match they had with nouns could probably put trauma to them. Maybe they'll use that hero against Entity or much better that they should ban it as Gabbi could use that hero against them.

In any case, I think that we will see Witch Doctor with other teams. During these 5 days of break, teams will study its use in the current patch better. At the moment, he was only picked once in TI12 in that game. Ogre Magi pikced 6 times, and won 4 times. In general, I wanted to see such heroes as Ogre Magi, Witch Doctor, Spectre much more as the grand final approached. Among other heroes, Spectra stands out in terms of win rate with 80%. I'm looking forward to seeing what the teams have prepared during this time.

ralle14

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Quote from: boltz on October 17, 2023, 03:16:31 PM

We can fairly say that Nouns are the dark horses of TI right ? With that high pace Dota 2 they play , I won't be surprised if a lot of teams will face difficulties playing against them and Azure might be the first victim of them on main stage.

It's too early to say when they only surprised us with that one upset so far, and Azure Ray is still a solid team with veteran players who've been to TI several times.

Quote from: boltz on October 17, 2023, 03:16:31 PM

LGD vs 9pandas should be the game of the day where normally we get 3 maps and LGD as winner.

Liquid vs Talon ...this game I think will give us one of the finalist as both teams are playing amazingly so far. Cool

On paper, LGD should win, but it still depends because 9Pandas showed in the second phase they can play well, and their chances of beating LGD should be higher when they've already done it before during the Riyadh Masters.

I agree the Talon series will be a banger, but it sucks that one of them will be knocked down early in the playoffs.

passwordnow

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Quote from: boltz on October 17, 2023, 03:16:31 PM

We can fairly say that Nouns are the dark horses of TI right ? With that high pace Dota 2 they play , I won't be surprised if a lot of teams will face difficulties playing against them and Azure might be the first victim of them on main stage.

Yeah, I'd agree now that nouns are the dark horse and least favorite of fans on this version of TI. They're all exceptional and IIRC, whenever K1 is placed on, his team gets a buff. His former team and teammates were already out of the tournament ending in the 17th-20th place. Good thing that he was kicked back there and went taken by a better team because he's a talented carry.

Quote from: boltz on October 17, 2023, 03:16:31 PM

LGD vs 9pandas should be the game of the day where normally we get 3 maps and LGD as winner.

Liquid vs Talon ...this game I think will give us one of the finalist as both teams are playing amazingly so far. Cool

I am now in belief that Team Spirit is making this tournament easy. If you guys remember it was the prime of OG and Nigma when they made every single tournament easy on their hands. This is what it looks like for Team Spirit, despite that they've been already a TI champ, it's like they have never been weakened by season. Maybe not now but soon they will, anyway, that's not the matter as they seem to be still dominant and on their prime.

boltz

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We can fairly say that Nouns are the dark horses of TI right ? With that high pace Dota 2 they play , I won't be surprised if a lot of teams will face difficulties playing against them and Azure might be the first victim of them on main stage.

LGD vs 9pandas should be the game of the day where normally we get 3 maps and LGD as winner.

Liquid vs Talon ...this game I think will give us one of the finalist as both teams are playing amazingly so far. Cool

passwordnow

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Quote from: len01 on October 16, 2023, 12:54:35 AM

Quote from: passwordnow on October 15, 2023, 04:44:47 PM

Hey len, that was close and that's just one! But you're right that this is a good reference for you next week when we go into the playoffs.

I told you I can! Cheesy

take a look at my strange bet

I just tried to predict from the kill results of several these teams and all them were almost over 42.5

I thought that you'll do it on the upcoming matches on Friday but you just did it. Congratulations len! Predicting kills is harder than choosing how many minutes the game will take and who's the match winner.

Quote from: len01 on October 16, 2023, 12:54:35 AM

LGD has playing style that is almost similar to Team Liquid, which is very fast but has a lot of kills, but Team Liquid usually plays very fast with few kills. and for Nouns, I would be surprised if could beat Tundra who is TI11 champion.

Yeah, that's also the observation that I see from the Chinese teams. They're like having more kills but longer games if they can't end the game as soon as possible. It's like a turtling game because that's what they're good at.

Quote from: sompitonov on October 17, 2023, 07:14:17 AM

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how Tundra will play in the lower bracket, especially if they pick Witch Doctor against them, or now they will ban him in every game? Wink

There will be no room for error.

I feel that it looks like it was nothing before but the actual impact of that Witch Doctor from the match they had with nouns could probably put trauma to them. Maybe they'll use that hero against Entity or much better that they should ban it as Gabbi could use that hero against them.

Quote from: sompitonov on October 17, 2023, 07:14:17 AM

5 days of rest is too much in my opinion. I hope I don’t lose the good mood during this time that I had during the group stage. Anyway, I would like to see a 3 day break, not 5. However, this is good for the teams, they will be able to walk around the city and see interesting places to recharge themselves. Of course after analyzing all the games of opponents. After this, the victories of the underdogs can continue, although this rarely happens in the lower bracket.

This is like the first long weekdays for the players as well and after this, the semifinals and then the grandfinals. I agree with you that it's better if the break just took 3 days but anyway, that's how long Valve wants them to take a break and rest for this TI.

sompitonov

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Quote from: passwordnow on October 16, 2023, 08:32:47 AM

Quote from: sompitonov on October 16, 2023, 07:26:05 AM

This means that bookmakers estimate very highly that Tunda can win the tournament even from the losers’ bracket. I don't believe in this at all.

Before this placing in the bracketing, they were really the contender and the favorite of the crowd and even the bookies. But now that they're in the losers bracket, I don't think that odds should be retained and still be favorable to them. Looking at the teams that are in the losers bracket, you'll never know if they will survive and if they do, it's all about going through hell on them.

Quote from: sompitonov on October 16, 2023, 07:26:05 AM

As for the team with the highest odds, it is nouns, who showed a simply amazing game. Now the main question is whether they could continue to play the same way. If someone believes in their victory, they can bet on their victory in the grand final x100.0 (previously it was x151) Grin

Great odds are with nouns and even after sending Tundra to the lower bracket, many still underestimate them but that's it. Next week, they'll be up against Azure Ray in the upper bracket and AR isn't just a simple team, they're still the Chinese power house. It's like an incomplete set for this TI because we only get 1 team remaining from the China region and from the SEA region. But that's it, we all have to wait for the changes that Valve will make about the next qualification for TI13. Going back to the teams and TI, we have got five days of rest before we see some actions again. I am sure that most teams will review each gameplays and obviously their opponents.

It will be incredibly interesting to watch how Tundra will play in the lower bracket, especially if they pick Witch Doctor against them, or now they will ban him in every game? Wink

There will be no room for error.

5 days of rest is too much in my opinion. I hope I don’t lose the good mood during this time that I had during the group stage. Anyway, I would like to see a 3 day break, not 5. However, this is good for the teams, they will be able to walk around the city and see interesting places to recharge themselves. Of course after analyzing all the games of opponents. After this, the victories of the underdogs can continue, although this rarely happens in the lower bracket.

passwordnow

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Quote from: sompitonov on October 16, 2023, 07:26:05 AM

This means that bookmakers estimate very highly that Tunda can win the tournament even from the losers’ bracket. I don't believe in this at all.

Before this placing in the bracketing, they were really the contender and the favorite of the crowd and even the bookies. But now that they're in the losers bracket, I don't think that odds should be retained and still be favorable to them. Looking at the teams that are in the losers bracket, you'll never know if they will survive and if they do, it's all about going through hell on them.

Quote from: sompitonov on October 16, 2023, 07:26:05 AM

As for the team with the highest odds, it is nouns, who showed a simply amazing game. Now the main question is whether they could continue to play the same way. If someone believes in their victory, they can bet on their victory in the grand final x100.0 (previously it was x151) Grin

Great odds are with nouns and even after sending Tundra to the lower bracket, many still underestimate them but that's it. Next week, they'll be up against Azure Ray in the upper bracket and AR isn't just a simple team, they're still the Chinese power house. It's like an incomplete set for this TI because we only get 1 team remaining from the China region and from the SEA region. But that's it, we all have to wait for the changes that Valve will make about the next qualification for TI13. Going back to the teams and TI, we have got five days of rest before we see some actions again. I am sure that most teams will review each gameplays and obviously their opponents.

arallmuus

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Quote from: Wapfika on October 16, 2023, 01:55:45 AM

You are lucky that they still have a lot of kills on map despite this match is an upset game.

In fact this type of upsets are actually going to get alot of kills though so its kinda understandable that he won the bet. The thing that made me surprise was actually the total odds combined are over 3.5x which is pretty good. I honestly thought it would be pretty one sided game for Tundra so I picked -1.5 for Tundra on this game so yeah that one got busted

Quote from: Wapfika on October 16, 2023, 01:55:45 AM

I didn’t watch the match, anyone can share what’s the reason for this upset?

Nouns read Tundra like a book therefore they won, probably because Tundra also underestimated Nouns as well

sompitonov

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I know that many people don’t like betting on the winner of the TI, but I continue to monitor this indicator out of curiosity. One of my interesting observations was that the Tundra’s odds decreased from x6.80 to x5.00. Now it is located between Team Liquid with x4.50 (was x5.20)) and LGD Gaming (x7.00 (was x11.00)). This means that bookmakers estimate very highly that Tunda can win the tournament even from the losers’ bracket. I don't believe in this at all.

As for the team with the highest odds, it is nouns, who showed a simply amazing game. Now the main question is whether they could continue to play the same way. If someone believes in their victory, they can bet on their victory in the grand final x100.0 (previously it was x151) Grin

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 55. (Read 77168 times)